The Rake Magazine

1. Warriors in Command
The big news of the first round of the NBA playoffs is obviously Golden State's 3-1 lead over 67-win Dallas, a series that would have any neutral observer pulling hard for the Warriors even if he/she didn't know they were enormous underdogs. Golden State epitomizes the coming out of FUN in the NBA this post-season, flipping the bird to the conventional wisdom that you need an airtight freeze-dried stiff upper-lipped dose of disciplined, didactic conservatism in order to win pro hoops in the spring. In fact three of the four most enjoyable teams among the 16 combatants are painting mustaches and spinning whirlagigs on that shibboleth.

No, the new news is that speed, athleticism, transition flow, and ball movement are threatening to be in vogue for the first moment since the Showtime Lakers a pair of decades ago. And joining Steve Nash as the poster child of this stomp-the-throttle fantasia is Baron Davis, who is turning in a folk hero style performance this series. If you like serendipity, your favorite Baron moment tonight was the half-court bank-in to the tie the game at the halftime buzzer. If its plain grit and hustle you hanker for, that jousting with Jason Terry for the steal on the out-of-bounds pass and subsequent transition layup with Terry riding his hip like a bad jockey, all in the last three seconds of the third period, comes out on top. And if seize the moment ingenuity is your thing, Baron's rebound off his own free throw miss and followup lay-in might be the snapshot.

Of course everybody is going to gush about Golden State--we've all got guilty consciences for picking against them, not truly believing until tonight's gritty victory. That they still might lose is a possibility, of course, but irrelevant to the lasting glory of these first four games. If they keep going, sweet. But it's that initial rush that really salts away the memories. Golden State fans feel better right now than they will if the Warriors win 55 games and make it to the conference finals next year.

There are a couple of things still worth pointing out about Dallas, however. First, the universally accepted label slapped on the Mavs was that they were stylistically versatile, that they could play Bump and Grind with the Spurs and the Jazz and Beat the Clock with the flyboys. But it wasn't so. Of the team's mere 15 losses in regular season play, a third of them were to Golden State, who beat them in all three meetings, and Phoenix, who beat them twice in a row in the final couple months of the season. People mistake the Mavs' quickness for a team that enjoys transition play. They don't. Even their fastest players like Devon Harris and Josh Howard have the sort of explosiveness that works best in the half-court for them, and regular rotation guys like Nowitzki, Stackhouse, Dampier, and Terry don't thrive against teams that love uptempo play. And if you need further convincing, the 45-4 edge the Warriors had in fast break points tonight over the first 46 minutes of the game might be the smoking gun.

Second, this has not been a good series for Avery Johnson, who was the single biggest reason why I decided the Mavs could withstand what was clearly going to be a difficult series for Dallas (but highly entertaining for the rest of us). It began when he went small with the lineup change, a move subsequently discredited by the fine performance of Dasagana Diop in the middle, who has been as much of an obstacle to the Warriors as anyone in a Dallas uniform--the key to tonight's game was when he picked up his 5th foul with the Mavs up 7 in the fourth period. The other mark against Avery is that his inflammable emotions on the sidelines haven't inspired his squad and may have contributed to their rattled demeanor. There was no way for anyone to know how the Mavs would react, of course, but if anyone should have had a clue, it was Avery.

Third, as someone who has watched Kevin Garnett be pilloried for playing fundamentally sound, unselfish basketball for lo these many years, I'm a little suspicious on the pile-on Nowitzki is being subjected to right now. TNT announcer Dick Stockton (oh I wish Harlen and Collins could have done this game) was a real asshole about it, justifiably pointing out Nowitzki's absence of aggressive point scoring, but either deliberately or blindly not noticing all the little things Nowitzki was doing on defense and for ball movement tonight. Granted, Nowitzki has not had a great series by any means, but neither has it been a classic choke--far from it. According to the popcornmachine.net totals, Dallas was +3 tonight in the 47:09 Nowitzki played, and -7 in the 51 seconds he sat.

2. Bullish in the East
Speed kills, exhibit B was Chicago's sweep over ossified Miami, the pathetic defending champs who mailed in the entire regular season in the belief they could just flip a switch in the playoffs, only to get de-pantsed by the Bulls' squadron of small, quick, very talented and poised top 5: Deng, Gordon, Wallace, Nocioni and Hinrich, with PJ Brown the token slowfoot.

My advice to any neophyte or otherwise clueless GM: Get some players from Argentina. Like Manu Ginobili, Nocioni seems to kick it up a notch when it matters most--otherwise known as having a killer instinct. Deng, like Baron Davis, is writing his name in neon across these playoffs, sending poor Eddie Jones packing with his combination of strength, size and quickness. Gordon has so much confidence in his shot right now that a priority for opponents should be to frustrate him and get him out of sync, even at the expense of leaving others open a little more. Wallace is the experienced hand, the guy who can battle in the paint and play superb interior D without retarding the high powered pace that is the Bulls metier. And Hinrich, well, he had an off-series, beset by fouls, and if the Bulls are going to beat the Pistons in the second round, he'll have to raise his game and move his feet better against Chauncey Billups. I wouldn't bet against it.

3. Hidebound SOB/PhDs in San Antonio
Watching these games for the pure basketball of it all, I found myself rooting for Golden State (even my disdain for Don Nelson abating), Phoenix, Chicago, and....the Spurs. How could this be? AI is one of my all-time couch potato lures, and I dislike Tim Duncan's "noble carriage but blatant whiner" hypocrisy almost as much as ref Joey Crawford. Worse, if there is a team that can send the NBA back to the stone age in terms of bruise-over-cruise prioritizing, it is Gregg Popovich's unmerry men.

But damn it if the Spurs don't have grit and guile and team synergy that isn't lightning in a bottle but fermented for eight years in oaken casks in the dusky depths of their collective souls. The key plays in Saturday night's pivotal road win over Denver were Robert Horry's steal and bucket to trigger a deadly surge at the end of the third quarter, and Michael Finley making them pay for doubling Duncan while keeping close watch on Ginobili and Parker--he buried treys. The key plays that nobody ever thinks about being key plays were all the times the Spurs scrambled back on defense.

I don't understand why Pops wants to throw Bowen on Iverson every third or fourth possession, especially when Tony Parker is playing decent D for a change and hair-shirt defenders like Bowen are the only guys that usually give Carmelo Anthony fits. But I don't think it is a very bright idea to criticize Gregg Popovich's decisions about how to play defense. Still, it's a head-scratcher that doesn't seem to be working.

Another reason I swung to the Spurs is Denver feels like a punk-ass outfit. Nene has had a bevy of marvelous moments, but is still prone to putting a little mustard on the rage when he finishes an open dunk with his team down 6 with two minutes to go--and he's whining more than Duncan. Karl hasn't worn well since his heyday in Seattle, even, or especially, his fluke year in Milwaukee that bagged him the huge contract. And Melo, well, Melo is the poor man's Kobe Bryant, and that is not a compliment. Can score in the clutch. Does a lot of things well. Obviously smart, pretty well-spoken, and often fun to watch. But from afar, he doesn't feel like a great teammate--there's a distance there that might be arrogance or immaturity or simply a lack of inspirational leadership. In a playoff year when speed and transition are the rule, a squad with Melo and AI should ready for their close-ups. Instead, the Nugs don't seem ready. Or maybe the Spurs are simply that good.

A few items while I wait for Wednesday night's Warriors-Mavs and Nugs-Spurs games...

There have been many fine tributes to author David Halberstam (my favorite is the superb excerpting of his work by Glenn Greenwald in Salon), and I'd have to put The Making of a Quagmire and The Best and the Brightest alongside Michael Herr's Dispatches as the three best books ever written about Vietnam. But my favorite Halberstam book, and the best book ever written about sports, period, in my eyes, is Halberstam's The Breaks of the Game, his account of the Portland Trailblazers during the 1979-80 season. Before Breaks the notion of looking at the inner workings of franchises through the prisms of salaries and race was almost without precedent, unless one was dealing with hoary history. Even today, the book remains a jewel of reporting, analysis, and fine writing. It set a new template for nearly every sports-related book that followed it.

Halberstam was not perfect. I found The Reckoning to be overly black and white in its indictment of American auto companies and its praise of the Japanese, and his book on Michael Jordan, like everything ever written about the greatest basketball player ever, fails to get past Jordan's defenses. But rarely does a writer make such a profound impact on both athletics and international affairs. Halberstam did it the hard way, with relentless reporting and painstaking craft that, at its best, was thrilling to read for the ideas and images that filled your head.

Have you heard that Andrei Kililenko broke down and cried in the Utah Jazz locker room on Sunday over the way he has been used recently by Jazz coach Jerry Sloan. During the Jazz's first two playoff games, both losses to the Rockets, AK-47 had a grand total of 2 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 6 fouls in just 34 total minutes of play. Note to Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale: Unless Kirilenko has totally fallen off the face of the earth in terms of talent or emotional stability, he would make a gorgeous bookend next to Kevin Garnett as the Wolves' small forward. The salary is a whopper, running from $13.7 million next year up to $17.8 million in 2010-11. That's a lot of coin to invest in someone who averaged 8 points, 5 rebounds and three assists this year. But anyone who has watched Kirilenko play knows that numbers don't do him justice. He is one of the most versatile defenders in the league, a high-energy guy who is a terrific shot-blocker and team player. He had a thumb injury this year, but something larger is affecting him and his relationship with Sloan. If the Wolves are serious about upgrading next year, one might think they could swap Ricky Davis and his expiring contract plus Mark Blount (Davis and Blount are almost a perfect match for Kirilenko's salary), or better pieces such as Trenton Hassell or Marko Jaric, who both would fit Sloan's hard-nosed style of play. Due diligence is required to ensure that Kirilenko isn't damaged goods in some way. But if there is a chance of him returning to his prime of two years ago (he's only 26 now), well, this guy is an underrated former All Star.

And while we're on the subject of the Wolves, Luol Deng's coming-out party in the Heat series may have effectively eliminated any chance of Minnesota dealing KG to the Bulls. Any talks and rumors about KG to Chicago always started with Minnesota getting Deng plus at least one other quality starter plus a high draft pick in return. But Deng has been a monster in the playoffs, averaging 30 points per game. Watching Deng play earlier this year made me consider the wisdom of dealing Garnett for the first time since the superstar arrived here a dozen years ago. Bottom line, with Deng's strong and steady improvement and Garnett's slight slippage this year, the Wolves couldn't expect to get too much more of value out of the Bulls along with Deng in any deal. And if the Bulls make it all the way to the Finals, which is certainly possible, it is unlikely they'll want to part with Deng at all.

Finally, why is it that some athletes always seem to be injured while others are just as consistently able to perform every game? I was thinking of that when I read the agate type on major league baseball players in this morning's Strib. Ken Griffey Jr. missed four games with what was originally diagnosed as the flu and later was called diverticulitis. Former dominating closer Eric Gagne is heading back to the disabled list with a hip injury. Former dominating starter Mark Prior had shoulder surgery today. A's outfielder Milton Bradley pulled his hamstring again and is on the 15-day DL. And the sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning.

Okay, naturally I'm getting around to my playoff preview less than an hour before the first tip. What follows is my take on seven of the eight series (I went more in depth on my favorite matchup, Houston-Utah, in the post marked "A Little Bit of Everything" a few days ago.), listed in chronological order.

New Jersey (6th seed) vs. Toronto (3)
This is where Raptors power forward Chris Bosh stamps himself on the public consciousness as one of the top ten players in the NBA or continues moving under the radar as a mere superstar-to-be. The Nets shouldn't have anyone who can contain Bosh: Mikki Moore, Jason Collins, Josh Boone, Bostjian Nachbar and an ancient Cliff Robinson are the possibilities. Sometimes Bosh is a little too unselfish (in a usually good, KG kind of way), but if the Raptors are going to win what should be a tough series, he has to exert his will in the paint and exploit the Nets glaring lack of interior defense.

New Jersey relies on their big (but medium-sized) three of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson. They are the hottest team in the NBA over the last ten at 8-2, but the Raps have weathered injuries to Jorge Garbajosa and a slew of others and still won two out of three in 2007 (34-17), which has got to be the best mark in the Eastern Conference. New Jersey loves to jack up treys, with the main troika abetted by Eddie House and Nachbar, both of whom are better than 42% behind the arc. If the Nets are scoring from long range and able to compel an up and down tempo, they have a very good shot at winning.

Raptors coach Sam Mitchell has done a marvelous job of maximizing his talent, but for Toronto to prevail a number of uncertain things have to happen. Not only does Bosh have to go off, but two players with Minnesota connections--center Rasho Nesterovic and forward Kris Humphries--have to make the Nets pay for ignoring them to stop Bosh. In his daunting matchup with Kidd, quicksilver point guard TJ Ford needs to know when to push the pace to exhaust the older, heavier Kidd, and when to pull back and not give oxygen to New Jersey's lethal transition game. Toronto is also leaning on folks with precious little experience, like Jose Calderon, Joey Graham and Anthony Parker. The last X factor is Vince Carter. Will his adrenaline, goosed by his return to Toronto, where he is justly loathed for quitting on the franchise, force selfish play at the expense of better efficiency from Kidd and Jeff, or will he stay within himself and flow within the Nets' silky offense?

Prediction: Bosh and Carter both play well, if sporadically, with Bosh's low points more injurious to the Raps. Kidd dominates his matchup with Ford (on the court even more than the stat sheet) and New Jersey wins in 6 or 7.

Miami (4) vs. Chicago (5)
The obvious question is, what kind of Miami team will show up? Wade carried them early, then got hurt. Shaq returned and carried them for a few weeks, then, as Shaq is wont to do in the regular season, began pacing himself as the Heat plummeted. Coach Pat Riley even took a little time off to refreshen himself for the post-season (via a conveniently timed surgery). Wade still has a bum shoulder. Can these guys--including vets like Payton, Walker, Posey, etc--all just flip a switch and not only elevate their games but have their roles sorted out and fallen into sync? That's a tall, tall order. On the other hand, there is a tremendous amount of talent and guile among the main actors in this franchise.

Here are the keys for the Heat:
Which way are the refs calling it? Shaq has always been the toughest guy to judge on the charge/blocking foul spectrum--he both gets fouled and fouls others without drawing whistles more than anyone in the league--and it will be interesting to see if the refs protect Wade's ability to penetrate as much as they did last year during the playoffs.
Will the team continue to create a niche for Eddie Jones? The longtime Miami swingman, deprived of sharing in last year's championship, is back in town after being cut by Memphis and provided the sort of hunger and hustle and glue-guy value that is absolutely vital for Miami's chance at a repeat.
Can Kapono keep nailing treys? Having a kick-out option when the Bulls clog the lane on Wade and also prevent a dump-down to Shaq will really screw with Chicago's gameplan if Kapono is hot.

The Bulls are much more of known commodity, with the only real questions being whether Nocioni's plantar fasciitis has truly abated enough for him to be effective, and if Tyrus Thomas can contribute in a meaningful way after an uneven but recently encouraging rookie year. These are two of the deepest teams in the NBA, so the bench play will be a large factor: If Nocioni is hobbled and Thomas shakey, the Heat veteran subs could steal the show from their more star-studded starters.

Prediction: Too much discontinuity, even for a squad as talented and seasoned as Miami. Wade can't perform at his peak and the play of Shaq comes and goes in a major way. Chicago in five or six.

Orlando (8) vs. Detroit (1)
Brian Hill has been popular enough in Orlando to enjoy two coaching stints with the Magic, but this is a Disney-crazed place that believes in plasticized cartoon fantasias and lemming-style entertainment, so let's not mistake a source of enthusiasm for a beacon of competence in these parts. Which is a purposefully snide way to say: Why the hell didn't Hill totally revolve his team around Dwight Howard? And will he finally, finally, get a clue in the playoffs?

The Magic shot out of the gate with a 7-3 record on the strength of Howard's dominance, prompting early talk that the man-child was a legit MVP candidate. But then Orlando inexorably allowed mediocre point guard Jameer Nelson to control more and more of the offense, with horrific results. Bottom line, Nelson finished the season with 2 more field goal attempts than Howard, despite playing 688 fewer minutes. Howard's FG percentage? 60.3% Nelson? 43%, including a paltry 33.5% from behind the three-point arc.

For this series, the Pistons have superior matchups at the point guard and small forward spots. Chauncey Billups is simply too strong, smart and talented for Nelson to have his way at either end of the court. The other player important to the offense, Grant Hill, goes up against Tayshaun Prince, an absolutely marvelous defender with quick feet and a huge wingspan. So, unless the Magic plan on riding the outside shooting of Hedo Turkoglu as the super secret plan for upsetting the squad with the best record in the East, they damn well better pound it inside with Howard, who is going up against emotionally inflammable Sheed Wallace, leg and a half phantom defender Chris Webber, the game but undersized Antonio McDyess, the enigmatic Nazr Mohammed, and anyone else the Pistons can throw into the breach.

In other words, the Pistons don't have a suitable match-up for Orlando's best player. If Brian Hill and company don't make it priority one for Howard to average 30 points and 20 rebounds in this series, they will be swept in four straight. Given what I've seen from Hill this year, the prediction is Pistons in four.

Houston (5) vs. Utah (4)
To get my take on this series, scroll down to Point 3 on the April 17 entry, "A Little Bit of Everything." Prediction: Houston in 5 or 6.

Washington (7) vs. Cleveland (2)
Could things have set up any better for LeBron James and the Cavs? First comes this walk-over of an injury-decimated Wizards squad, then a favorable matchup against either Toronto or New Jersey. Meanwhile, the Bulls have to go through Miami and Detroit to get to the conference finals, and the Pistons must cope with either the Bulls or the Heat in the second round; both of which, given Detroit's thin bench, will leave them spent for the finals. Unlike Sports Illustrated's Jack McCallum, I hardly think the Pistons will "coast" into the championship game, and as of right now would put my money on the Cavs playing the crown in three weeks or so.

The important thing for Cleveland is to establish the right kind of momentum; treat this series the way boxers deal with sparring partners. LeBron has to work on involving his teammates more often, especially Drew Gooden and Z Ilgauskas, who should be shooting 60% apiece (instead of 47.3% and 48.5%, respectively), by getting easy layups off LeBron's penetration and pick and rolls. LeBron also have to start laying off the threes (31.%) and start working on his free throws (69.8%)--given the golden opportunity his team has been presented, it is time to stop playing stupidly. Defensive rotations need to be crisper, and the perimeter pressure has to be there from both Larry Hughes and Eric Snow. From the bench, more Aleksander Pavlovic and less Damon Jones; more Anderson Varejao and less Donyell Marshall. And if it costs a game or two to get everything humming, so be it. A gift has been presented--the Wiz without Arenas or Butler has no chance--and the Cavs need to exploit it for the long road ahead.

Prediction: Cleveland in 4 or 5.

Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Phoenix (2)
Get out your abacus, because this promises to be a wild and woolly, high-scoring series. The strategy for Phoenix under coach Mike D'Antoni has been to suck opponents into a run-and-gun game, secure in the knowledge that nobody plays that way better than the Suns. But pouring gasoline on the Lakers offense has enough risk to make this a compelling duel. If Kobe is in a groove and making good decisions--one dictated by circumstances rather than the impulses of his ego--and if Lamar Odom and Luke Walton start reveling in fast break drills, then this could easily be a reprise of last year's classic, seven-game matchup, when Phoenix needed a mighty rally from a 3-1 deficit to prevail.

Yeah, the Suns have Amare Stoudamire back this season, but can he really be expected to play better than Boris Diaw, Raja Bell and Tim Thomas did in last year's first round beside Shawn Marion on the Suns' front line? No, the real key isn't Stoudamire but whether Raja Bell can remain one of the best in the league at frustrating Kobe. If it gets personal, and Bryant wins the battle while losing the war, the Lakers will be quickly dispatched. But if the Lakers follow Phil Jackson's superb gameplan from last year's playoffs, and have Bryant distributing first and scoring second, especially given the increasing familiarity among Kobe-Walton-Odom, it might again go the distance.

Of course Phoenix won't take the Lakers lightly again, and knowing that they're staring at a gauntlet of San Antonio and Dallas to get to the championship series, they'll be all business and anxious to dispatch LA as quickly as possible. Expect Kobe to put up some ridiculous numbers at least twice, and for Walton's stock to rise. But in the end, the best player in the NBA this year, Steve Nash, will orchestrate enough clutch baskets to win the close ones, and the foot speed of Barbosa, the tenacity of Bell, the versatility of Marion, and the explosiveness of Stoudamire will simply be too much talent. Prediction: D'Antoni is right: Not even the Lakers can run and gun with the Suns. Phoenix in 6.

[Part II, written Sunday afternoon]

Denver 6 vs. San Antonio 3
There will be all sorts of chatter about the Melo-AI combo, the most prolific scoring duo to grace the playoffs since the shorts got baggy more than a decade ago. But Denver's hopes of springing an upset probably depend more whether Marcus Camby can discourage the drives to the hoop by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili that open up Tim Duncan's off-the window jumpers and treys from the supporting cast--Brent Barry, Robert Horry, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen--on the perimeter. Camby led the NBA in blocks per game. He's also a decent threat on the offensive end, hoisting midrange jumpers trailing the break. Given San Antonio's ability to get back in transition, he should have ample opportunities to shoot them after the Spurs have rebuffed the initial penetration.

The trade for Steve Blake (a move which only cost them the suddenly redundant Earl Boykins) was a masterstroke for the Nuggets, because Blake is that classic point guard you want as the fulcrum enabling both ends of the Melo-Iverson show. It will be interesting to see if Spurs coach Gregg Popovich uses Parker or Ginobili on Iverson; I'd opt for Parker, who has the foot speed, if not always the inclination, to stay with AI, while Ginobili's height might hinder Blake's court vision. If Parker (or Ginobili) can frustrate Iverson into selfish ball domination, and Bowen locks down on Melo, Camby's defense and the banger-bulk of Nene and Najera become that much more important.

I anticipate bad blood before this series is over. It will be as physical as the Jazz-Rockets, and there is a surfeit of histrionic personalities involved, from coaches George Karl and Pops, to suffer-the-punishment penetrators like AI and Ginobili, to whiners like Duncan. Despite Karl's wrongheaded penchant for fast-break basketball (even before he acquired Iverson), Denver will win or lose this series in the paint. And that's why I'm predicting San Antonio in 5 or 6.

Golden State (8) vs. Dallas (1)
Perhaps never has the first game of a first-round playoff series been so crucial to the final outcome. By now everyone knows that Dallas finished six games better than any other NBA team at 67-15, but lost all three tilts with Warriors. The Mavs finished two games shy of the trophy last season, while Golden State is making its first post-season appearance in more than a decade. Whoever wins the opener will have a pretty credible mantra as a psychological edge the rest of the way: For GS, that they have Dallas's number; for the Mavs, that the playoffs are a whole 'nother thing than the regular season. This could be over quickly, in 4, 5 tops, or it could be a thrill-a-minute cliffhanger that goes all 7 games.

I'm splitting the difference. I do think Golden State matches up extremely well with the Mavs, with a deep team of versatile athletes that are playing loose and confident under the role-blurring, position-shifting style of coach Don Nelson. Baron Davis and Monta Ellis are more than a match for Jason Terry and Devon Harris in the backcourt, the trade that brought Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson from Indiana provided Nelson with the talented 'tweeners he cherishes, and a couple of foreign imports, the center Andris Biedrins and swingman Mickeal Pietrus, are superb, relatively low-profile athletes who can get hot and ambush opponents.

But the Mavs will ultimately win because the Warriors are too inconsistent. There will be at least one game where Dallas blows them out by 30 or so, and another where the Mavs vast edge in playoff experience will enable them to escape with a win they otherwise wouldn't earn. That will be the difference in what could be an extremely entertaining matchup of #1 versus #8 seeds. Prediction: Dallas in six.

This will not be a comprehensive or otherwise definitive take on the current state of the Timberwolves. I'd like to think that anyone who read the 60 or so Three-Pointers I put out this year has a pretty good glimpse into what I think are the strengths and weaknesses of the team. And what should be done about it is out of my hands.

Trades? I can dream stuff up all day: So what?

Fire McHale? I assumed it would happen more than a year ago, and today's announcement indicates that he's still on board. Why wasn't McHale fired was one of the first questions I asked owner Glen Taylor when we spoke *last October*. Since then, the franchise has canned its coach for a 20-20 record, seen his replacement go 12-30 and express a desire to bring him back, and *deliberately lost* basketball games for the better part of two weeks, if not longer. Maybe sometime after the May 22 draft lottery or after the summer draft pick I can begin to tolerate serious thought about this franchise again. But right now, quite frankly, there are better things to do in life and I suggest we all start doing them. If you want to add your comments to this thread, I may respond, but I must tell you that right now I am more interested in looking at the NBA playoffs, or starting to talk about the Twins and baseball, or even get into a little hockey if the Wild win again tonight.

In other words, that is not a good day for sober analysis. On the other hand, it seems like the right time to get a few things off my chest.

* Mark Blount should be ashamed of himself. His "effort" over the final three months of the season was provocatively half-assed, making Michael Olowokandi look like a poster boy of professionalism by comparison. At least two or three times a game, and sometimes up to half a dozen, a smaller player would drive the lane where Blount was situated and score the layup with impunity, without worrying about a hard foul, block, or any consequence to him or his team. These things get around the league--you don't need scouts on the sideline to have the word spread that someone is chickenshit beneath the hoop--and had a lot to do with the Wolves collapse on the defensive end during the second half of the season.

* Ricky Davis and Blount care far more about making snide, snarky comments and feeling put-upon in a dual pity party than they do about improving themselves or this basketball team. Davis is a talented player who doesn't give a rat's ass about the greater good of team, and he's so pathological about it that I really don't think he can change. Justin Reed occasionally joined this cancerous little clique, making the Boston trade an outright disaster even if Wally Szczerbiak never plays another minute. Davis needs to go. Blount is probably untradeable, but if I were the Wolves, I'd bring a very nasty banger into training camp next year and force-feed Blount to him. It would do wonders for team chemistry.

* Today, about the only thing Kevin McHale could say in support of Randy Wittman was that he was a taskmaster who runs a tight locker room and would demand discipline and responsiveness from his team. McHale has spread a lot of bullshit in his time at the Target Center, but this may top the list. The idea of Wittman commanding respect from his troops is evidenced by....what? Who got called out most blatantly during Wittman's 4 months on the job? Not Davis, who got more minutes under Witt than he did under Dwane Casey. Not Blount, who played far far more minutes than he deserved from the All-Star break on, when rookie Craig Smith and energy guy Mark Madsen were blatantly better options. McHale also said today that in the current NBA, a guy like Smith can play the 4, that the game is gravitating to smaller and quicker front lines. He also stated that this team will get bigger and bang more, but more likely at the forwards than at the center position because of a lack of options. Well then, why didn't Wittman sit Blount down and start grooming Smith for that role? Yeah, he eventually did it, about three weeks after the most casual fan could see it had to be done. Bottom line, Wittman continued giving Blount and Davis heavy minutes, even as complained about selfish play and a lack of chemistry, and affirmed that he would make players pay for lack of effort. Then McHale comes along and says Wittman will be back because he is a taskmaster who will get the players' attention. How stupid do these people think we are? Meanwhile, the two players Witt really slighted were Trenton Hassell, who got benched for a perceived lack of hustle longer than anyone on the team--nearly two straight games--and then only grudgingly was allowed back in the lineup; and Kevin Garnett, who heard his coach say there wasn't enough locker room policing going on--a direct rip on KG, the de facto leader of the team. Maybe McHale and Wittman see a different game than I do, but Trenton Hassell and Kevin Garnett are not among my top 6 things wrong with this wretched franchise. In fact the VP of Personnel and the Coach rate much higher on my "could be upgraded" list than the team's two best on-ball defenders.

* Big Disappointment # 3, behind the listless, soft, quit-on-his team Blount and the narcissistic, unreliable, doesn't-understand-what-it- takes-to-win Davis, is Mike James, who proved rather decisively that he can't handle the pressure of being a key component of a quality team. Once the onus of meaningful games was lifted, James became similar to the player he was in Toronto--capable of scoring in bunches, and bringing energy to the offensive end (he defense remained awful). Last year it was Marko Jaric who demonstrated that he is not to be trusted when the game is on the line, but at least Jaric restricted his chokes to crunchtime. James cannot be trusted as long as his team means to contend and he is more than a bit role player in the proceedings.

* There is not a single player on this team that had a really good year. Not one. Garnett is showing signs of slippage, especially on defense, where he can't scramble and recover or casually outjump and snatch rebounds or deter penetration the way he did in his prime. Davis is the team's most fraudulant stat-stuffer since Micheal Williams. Randy Foye was inconsistent to a fault, even for a rookie looking an important, unfamiliar position. (McHale said today that he envisions Foye playing "off the ball" more in the backcourt next year.) Hassell and Jaric provided offense the way November or March occasionally provide a warm sunny day. Mark Blount provided a first 45 games of hustle and quality shooting that made his last 35 or so games all that much more abominable by comparison. James is a flunky, a sidekick, pure and simple. And so on, down the list.

There. End of rant. Time to start remembering why I enjoy basketball so much--I'll do some thumbnail playoff series impressions and picks in the next post.

A Small Appreciation of Bracey Wright
First off, thanks to those who gave me feedback on how to handle this disheartening point of the season, when the only intelligent thing for the Wolves to do is lose. Which is a bittersweet bit of good fortune, because about the only thing this squad is capable of doing is losing.

But game analysis is a broken record, especially with the departure of Garnett for the season. There are only so many times I can bash Davis-Blount-James before it feels less like insight and more like a grudge. I've tried to go out of my way to praise this troika when they've done well, but since I think they are all still overvalued in the eye of the casual fan (but probably only the most masochistic of the ones who are my readers), and since I don't want to simply echo conventional wisdom, I still wind up hammering them more than is necessary.

Let's get positive for just a second then, and talk about Bracey Wright. Word is the Wolves drafted Wright largely on the enthusiasm on then-assistant GM Rex Chapman, and I confess to being bewildered at the choice at the time, before remembering Kevin McHale's history of throwaway second-round picks--since remedied by Craig Smith. And, belatedly, Bracey Wright. No one denied the kid could shoot, and certainly not after he finished 4th in scoring in the D-League at better than 21 ppg last year. It's just that he's relatively frail, not very quick, not very athletic, really; an undersized 'tweener guard of the sort who's upside is making close to six figures in a European league.

The sad part of this tale is that I still don't see him being anything more than someone at the end of an NBA bench. But all that said, if you paid attention on his quick cameoes, including last night's loss to the Nuggets in Denver, you can't help but be impressed with Wright's poise. Once he finally joined the Wolves in Minnesota last season, he jacked up jumpers whenever he was open, then endured a brief experiment when the braintrust tried to turn him into a point guard--which could well have been camouflage for tanking.

This season he's played a grand total of 175 minutes and is shooting less than 40% from the field. Even his most impressive stat, a team-best +49 (KG is second at +10 and Rashad McCants' +6 is the only other positive), has been accomplished almost exclusively in garbage time or the substitute-rich middle periods of the game. But what catches your eye is that Wright has been feverishly polishing the important "little" things about the game, like fostering ball movement (a totally lost art on this dysfunctional squad), making sound judgments on defensive rotations, not trying to extend himself beyond his skill set with foolish passes or showboating, and generally displaying a consistent effort with a generous attitude despite the circumstances. Last night he played a season-high 26:29 and canned 13 points (5-11 FG, 1-5 3P, 2-4 FT) with 5 rebounds, 2 assists and a pair of steals versus one turnover. Playing on the floor with the NBA's ultimate jitterbug in AI, with absolutely no interior defense behind him, he once again didn't embarrass himself. Most likely two or three years from now he'll be a vague footnote in our collective memory banks, but last night and during a disastrous three-month stretch where the Wolves have compiled the second-worst record in the entire NBA (only the Milwaukee Bucks, at 11-33, undercut Minnesota's 12-33 mark) Bracey Wright has instead been a minor but not unappreciated grace note. Good for him.

2. The Great Brittons
You know the blog ethos has gone to my head when I start naming award picks after myself (full name: Paul Britton Robson Jr.) in a desperate bid to break the monotony. Anyway, the virtual statuettes go to:

Coach of the Year
1. Jeff Van Gundy
2. Sam Mitchell
3. Jerry Sloan
Van Gundy weathered injuries to Yao and McGrady and has his team primed to be the foe nobody wants to face in the playoffs. Mitchell likewise has contended with injuries, early-season rumors about his own firing, and a slew of rookies, to post more than 45 wins, albeit in an inferior conference. Sloan has mixed and matched his talent with an unconventional front line and produced perhaps his most creative season. Honorable mention to Don Nelson, Flip Saunders, Avery Johnson, and, as Steve Aschburner astutely pointed out on Sunday, Dwane Casey.

6th Man
1. Leandro Barbosa
2. Manu Ginobili
This really is a two-person contest. The Suns' high-powered offense actually kicks up a notch in speed and productivity when Barbosa enters the game. Ginobili is an erstwhile stud-starter who has sacrificed a bit of ego for the good of his team. Former contenders Ben Gordon and Mike Miller are starters this year. Honorable mention, way back, goes to Jerry Stackhouse, Antonio McDyess, and Earl Watson.

Rookie of the Year
1. Brandon Roy
2. Jorge Garbajosa
3. LeMarcus Aldridge
Roy is so far ahead of everyone else here that he should be a unanimous choice. Garbajosa is the already mature foreign export crucial to the Raptors' early rise, who blew out his leg in brutal fashion. Aldridge is going to be really good and make Joel Pryz expendable in the process. For the record, I'd put Randy Foye and Craig Smith 4th and 6th, respectively, surrounding Rudy Gay.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Shane Battier
2. Tayshaun Prince
3. Bruce Bowen
My rules: Blocks and steals are overrated; rotational help coupled with stolid on-ball defense is paramount, with versatility also important. Battier and Van Gundy is a match made in hell for opposing swing men. Prince helped restore Flip Saunders' defensive reputation by leading the Big Ben-less Pistons to top five finishes in fewest points and lowest FG% by opponents. Bowen needs (or at least gets) six or seven more minutes of rest than the other two, which about the only reason he's third. Honorable mention: Ben Wallace, Marcus Camby, Tim Duncan.

Most Improved
1. Deron Williams
2. Al Jefferson
3. Kevin Martin
Another no-brainer. In Year Two, Williams has become the MVP of a typically tough Sloan-coached team, leap-frogging Chris Paul and stamping himself as most likely successor to Nash as the NBA's premiere point guard. Jefferson's second half has been phenomenal beneath the radar due to the Celts' miserable season--pairing him with Oden or Durant would put them in the second round, minimum, next season. Martin is an overachiever who has probably now reached his ceiling, but you've got to admire the doubled-scoring average, especially on a team with shoot-first cohorts like Bibby and Artest.

MVP
1. Steve Nash
2. Dirk Nowitzki
Another two-person race. For two straight seasons I really grimaced at Nash getting this award, firmly believing it belonged to Shaq and then LeBron, respectively. Now, in what has so clearly been Nash's greatest season, one of the most stunning point guard displays in the history of the NBA, Nash will be denied the award because voters don't regard him as luminous enough to be placed alongside Bird, Wilt, and Bill Russell as three-time winners. And he isn't. But he is the MVP of 2006-07, hands down. Notwitzki would be a mediocre choice even without Nash in the running, but gets extra credit for sublimating his stats for the good of a 60+ win team. Honorable mention to Kobe Bryant, the anti-Nash in that his legend will always be larger than his collection of MVP trophies, LeBron James, who will demonstrate why this award is best voted on after the playoffs, and Tim Duncan, the ultimate glue guy.

3. Rockets-Jazz Playoff Preview
This is the playoff series I am most looking forward to watching. Here are a few reasons why.

* Sloan vs. Van Gundy
Two of the league's best coaches. With his multiple screens, weakside cuts and various picks and rolls, Sloan puts meat-and-potatoes offense on the court as well as anyone in the game. The Jazz ranked second only to Phoenix in team FG% this season, despite finishing next-to-last from beyond the arc. What that means is a bevy of high percentage shots developed through physicality, guile, and unselfish ball movement, all hallmarks of Sloan teams. And this outfit is his most talented since the days of Stockton and Malone. Meanwhile, Van Gundy is one of the NBA's better defensive tacticians, always landing his teams among the top handful is lowest opponent FG% and leading the league this year with a .429 mark. JVG, too, has his most talented team since he took the Knicks to the NBA finals.

* Aces in the hole
The Jazz don't really have an answer for Yao Ming. Their starting center, Mehmet Okur, is an outside shooter--the team's only real three-point threat--who is smart and has a nose for the basketball in the paint, but is hardly a defensive stopper and doesn't even play as large as his 6-11 height, which is a good half-foot shorter than Yao. Their power forward, Carlos Boozer, has brawn but is perhaps generously listed at 6-9.
Expect Sloan to double-down on Yao from a number of angles and try a variety of different players and looks on him. He certainly has some compelling pieces. Swingman Kirilenko is a defensive beast but will probably spend almost all of his time occupying Tracy McGrady. Backup center Jarron Collins is physical and disciplined, perhaps Utah's best answer if the plan is not to front or double Yao too much. Shooting guard Derek Fisher is wily and experienced at doubling down and will be a Yao pest. Backup small forward Matt Harpring is nearly as large as Boozer and plays a tough, physical game.
In any event, the plan most likely will be to deny Yao touches whenever possible, and collapse on him immediately when he does get the ball. Yao is prone to turnovers not only due to footwork but bringing the ball up to the 6-6 level of his chest. But once he catches and squares to the hoop, he's a deadly midrange jumpshooter with a quick release.

But the Jazz have their own ace in point guard Deron Williams, and it is to their advantage that point guard is where Houston is weakest, with Rafer Alston running the show. Alston shot 37.4% from the field and dished out only 5.4 assists per game. Both stats are a little unfair because more than half his shots were treys (and he made more than 36% of them) and his assist total is deflated because McGrady dominates the backcourt ball possession. But Alston is hardly John Paxton to T-Mac's MJ; he's the opposite of ice water, a streaky, emotional player who makes only 74% of his free throws. But Houston has no viable second option: Alston led the team in minutes played this season.

More importantly, Alston is no match for Williams when the Rockets are on defense. Williams is not only an inch taller but 30 pounds heavier than Alston, and through the tutelage of Sloan and John Stockton (who always played bigger and heavier than he actually was) has learned to excel at shielding the ball with his body on drives and passes. Alston is 16th in the league in steals, but Sloan and Williams are generally too smart to present many opportunities for that.

More likely, Van Gundy will figure out ways to bump Williams off stride, perhaps mixing in a matchup zone and trapping the corners. One advantage for Houston is that with the likes of Yao or Mutumbo underneath, they can gamble and press up on the perimeter. Another intriguing possibility is putting Shane Battier on Williams. (Battier could also find himself guarding Okur on the perimeter while Yao contends with Boozer. That Battier is a plausible option on both the center and point guard attests to his value.) It could backfire--Williams is obviously quicker--but it also might throw a huge monkey-wrench into the best thing the Jazz have going. Put simply, the Jazz don't win unless Williams has a superb series.

* Battle of the boards
With a pair of leviathans in Yao and Mutumbo, a pair of capable forwards off the bench in Juwan Howard and energy guy Chuck Hayes (who may not play much), and a pair of large swingmen in Battier and McGrady, *and* a defensive that generates more missed shots than anyone in the league, Houston grabs a lot of rebounds--43.5 a game, good for second in the NBA, a tenth of a rebound behind the Bulls. But despite its relative lack of size, Utah parlays Sloan's fundamentals into being titans on the boards, owning the largest rebounding differential by far--more than 5.3 per game--of any team in the league.

*Kirilenko on McGrady
It is amazing that only now are we getting around to McGrady. The guy had a fabulous year, averaging 24.6/5.3/6.5 in points/rebounds/assists. Who guards him? Not Derek Fisher--too short and probably too old. Not Gordan Giricek, who is rangy but usually a defensive liability. One interesting choice would be Ronnie Brewer but he's a rook--expect foul trouble if he's on T-Mac. The best bet is obviously Andrei Kirilenko. In fact he's probably the ideal McGrady foil; the problem is, who guards Battier at the other forward spot? Between Yao and T-Mac, not to mention three-point specialist Luther Head off the bench and Battier and Alston also bombing from outside, Sloan is going to have to do a lot of rotating and switching on defense anyway. Whether Kirilenio--a marvelous, Swiss army knife kind of defender, like a more wiry Kevin Garnett--can be as much of a disrupter on D as T-Mac is an igniter on O will be another key to Utah's chances.

* Prediction
I love the Jazz and have great respect for Sloan, but this isn't a good matchup for this team. The six weeks or so Yao sat out with an injury only rested him a bit and made the Rockets more dangerous by gaining confidence from the wins generated in Yao's absence. The Jazz have to figure out a way to fluster both Yao and McGrady--possible, but hardly probably. They can exploit Alston, but the streaky point guard will also be a positive factor at least once. On top of everything else, Houston has earned the home court advantage. The Rockets in five or six.