The Rake Magazine

Okay, much as I hate to plunge into things without being sure it is not a waste of time, the Associated Press is calling the KG trade to Boston a done deal and I'm getting a lot of calls to appear on various media to discuss the trade, so it seems a little silly not to have a forum on this blog for it.

In case you haven't heard the particulars, AP is reporting KG to Boston for Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, and an undisclosed draft pick. (Others, such as the Boston Herald, have also thrown in Ryan Gomes and a 2009 first round pick--all unconfirmed as of now.

This is a trade that now makes sense for both teams. Celtic GM Danny Ainge has Paul Pierce and Ray Allen signed through 2011 and 2010, respectively, at more than $16 million a year apiece. He needs to win now. Adding KG to those aforementioned stars in the East catapults the Celts up with the Bulls and perhaps the Cavs and the Heat as early favorites for the NBA finals.

On the Wolves end, GM Kevin McHale has long lamented the lack of rugged low post play and has coveted Jefferson for that reason. Just 22 years old with two years left on his deal at a combined $6.9 million, he has the potential to be another Elton Brand. The next most valuable piece is Ratliff's expiring $11 million contract, which is vitally important to a Wolves ownership that was looking at paying Garnett $46 million over the next two years while the team underwent a near top-to-bottom rebuilding with the youth acquired over the last three drafts. Telfair is damaged goods but does play the point and has a clean slate with which to prove himself. Green is freakishly athletic but hasn't demonstrated he knows how to play basketball. I would say that the third key to the trade behind Jefferson and Ratliff is whether the Wolves receive their own pick back or have to take one of the Celtics picks. Given the Wolves rebuilding mode and the strength of the West, versus the suddenly stacked Celts in the inferior East, the Wolves' former pick is the one to own down the road.

Other considerations...

One reason this deal is likely "rumored" without confirmation for so long is because the Celts want to ensure they get a contract extension with Garnett totally firmed up if not in writing.

When Al Jefferson was a rookie, Ricky Davis and Mark Blount were veterans on the Celtics whom management obviously wanted to unload. Chemistry is all about pecking orders, and Jefferson has to have his status elevated rapidly and without much disruption if the Wolves are to enjoy good chemistry. In other words, add this trade to the reasons why Minnesota should part with the Boston Bobbsey Twins.

That said, the Wolves will have to find a new way to rebound, having lost the guy who dominated the boards for his team more than anyone in the league over the past three to four years. Can Jefferson, Craig Smith and Corey Brewer be an adequate front line, especially if your backcourt is also smallish, with Foye and McCants the likely starters in any youth movement? Yes, Juwon Howard is also a factor, but if Howard is your rebounding bulwark, you're in trouble.

Less than a week before the MLB trading deadline, the Twins are not only eight and a half games out of first place, but fourth in the wild card race behind Cleveland, Seattle, and the resurgent Yankees. Proponents of getting a desperately needed bat or two to make a late-season run always point to the quality personnel already on the squad: Santana, Morneau, Mauer, Nathan, Hunter, Neshek, etc. There are two problems with this. The talent gap between the marquee guys and the rest of the ballclub is much greater than most teams, and certainly so compared to the teams contesting the Twins for that wild card spot (which also include Toronto, who would be tied with Minnesota with a victory tonight). Put bluntly, this team has no depth.

And incredibly green pitching. Say the Twins did miraculously manage to score a post-season berth. How do you line up your rotation for the ALDS? Santana, and then Bonser, and then Silva? Is that really going to beat the Red Sox/Angels/Tigers/Indians? But inexperienced pitching isn't as big of an issue as the dirty secret that has plagued this year's edition of the Twins: shoddy fundamentals. The team's base running has often been atrocious, and a story in today's Strib made note of how frequently players have failed in sacrifice bunt situations. Although the Twins' fielding percentage is 4th best in all of baseball, the 34 unearned runs they've allowed is strictly middle of the pack (7th in the AL, 14th overall), not keeping to the standard set by this franchise over the past decade.

All of the cheerleaders want Terry Ryan to trade some of his surplus pitching for a capable hitter or two. I'm all for that, so long as we're not renting a player and the bat(s) we get are going to be around for the next 2-3 years minimum. But let's repeat for emphasis: Any moves designed to make a last-ditch effort to secure a championship in 2007 are fools' errands. This team simply isn't ready for its close-up this season.

The NFL training camp season is likewise upon us, and in this football crazy area that's big news. I'll confess to not being much of a pigskin adherent, although I did play in high school and acknowledge that of all the team sports it is best suited for television. It is comical, however, to read the big blowout in today's Strib and count all the ways they try to paint a pretty face, under the guise of objective analysis, on the notion that this team is trying to compete without anyone even remotely ready to be their quarterback. Did anyone else watch Tavaris Jackson's two starts last year--after the then-rook openly and rightly conceded he wasn't ready? This is a kid two years removed from Division I-AA. Good luck with that. I'm not really qualified to parse X's and O's and can do little better than regurgitate conventional wisdom about the squad--the hope rests with the running game and the left side of the O line, plus the beefy dudes who share a last name in the middle of the D line--except for one thought: Why not try Mewelde Moore as a receiver? As the team's punt returner, he clearly is expected to have good hands and to function well in the open field. And I always liked Moore during his stints in the backfield--he's shifty and smart, with good physical instincts and reflexes as a runner. I understand that he is either dreadfully injury-prone or a bit of a wuss, depending on how much you want to knock his character. But the Vikes' receiving corps isn't exactly top-notch and what's the harm of giving him some reps and seeing how he pans out on the flank?

Finally there is the brouhaha over Tim Donaghy. My wonderfully hoops-centric readers have already been all over this one, ranging from Andy B's fire-alert alarm to Patrick's declaration of boredom over the whole scandal. I confess to an irresponsible sense of ennui. Yeah, I know that the integrity of my favorite sport has certainly been placed in jeopardy, and that those who have an animus toward the NBA--the style of play is too boring, the players are too thuggish, etc--will use this as further evidence that pro b-ball isn't worth their time. And I'm not minimizing the potential damage that can be wrought if refs other than Donaghy get fingered, or, god forbid, some players or coaches.

But what I keep coming back to is, what am I supposed to do or say in reaction here? I would argue that the person with the most power to respond to the situation, NBA commish David Stern, has demonstrated a long history of staunch--to the point of extreme--vigilance to shoring up the image and integrity of the game, especially with respect to casual fans and new markets, which is precisely where the Donaghy scandal can cause the most damage. And yesterday, Stern labelled this the "worst situation" in his 20+ year tenure. In other words, adding my outrage isn't going to make Stern any more determined to flip over every rock in every nook and cranny and impose the harshest penalties he can muster in order to not only eradicate this undeniable blotch on the history of the league, but serve notice and implement policies to ensure that it won't ever happen again. Put it this way: Is Donaghy a bigger scandal than steroids in baseball (and football and cycling and...)? Are NBA players more "thuggish" than football players, or is that line of thinking just a wee bit tinged with race? No, this is bad for the NBA, but it is not like I'm going to stop watching the game or feel like the league has deceived me for all my years of fandom. From what we know now, nobody knew about this (a la steroids in baseball) and happily looked the other way. And now that it is out in the open, well, Donaghy just has to be happy that it isn't the Puritan days and Stern isn't the leader of the town, or he would be burned at the stake, without any of his fingernails.

Andy B cited a typically riveting column by ESPN Sports Guy Bill Simmons. Now Simmons happens to be my favorite sportswriter on the planet, and I do think his citing of Donaghy's participation in the pivotal Game Three of the Spurs-Suns series, which everyone sort of knew was the real NBA Finals this season, is the gravest evidence for hoops junkies like myself that we need to take this thing seriously, that it may have fundamentally altered the course of the 2006-07 season. And while it does not approach the 1919 Black Sox scandal for pervasive and conclusive fixing of the results, whenever the stench of scandal can taint the crowning of a champion, it is a terrible thing. I'll wait and see how much it can be demonstrated that Donaghy threw that contest to the Spurs, but even if the evidence is minimal, the stench remains. It is not, however, strong enough to drive me away from my addiction to pro hoops and I am thankful that the commish is on the warpath so I can look forward to the upcoming season relatively confident that the cancer has been removed.

One last thing about Simmons. He makes a couple of good points--I too think the refs should be paid far more money and be held to a tougher standard, with more turnover of bad officials. And I also think they ought to rely heavily on the precious few great refs when it comes to the last couple of rounds of the series. I am less enamored with his desire to make the playoffs less of a East versus West so the stronger conference isn't penalized and the fans aren't robbed from saving the best match-up for last. If the conferences are to have any integrity, you need to match them up for the final (and by the way, that's the way football and baseball have always done it, despite periods of longstanding disparity in talent). And lastly, there is the caveat that, as is often the case, the virtues and vices in Simmons' style are often from the same root. The guy is a provincial fan, who treasures being part of a local community of like-minded folks who live and die for their team. Boston will always be his first love. So sure, right now in Simmons' three favorite team sports, Boston has the perennially contending Patriots and Red Sox and the woeful Celtics. Of course he's going to be down on the NBA. He tried to kindle something with the Clippers a couple years ago after he moved to LA (remember the paeans to Sam Cassell, a player upon whom he was strangely silent this year, eh?), but in many respects the Clips and the Lakers were as desultory as the Celtics this season. Taking meaningful passion for a team out of Simmons's arsenal is tying one hand behind his back, which is why he tried to compensate by slobbering all over Kevin Durant this NCAA season, in the hopes and expectation that Durant would end up a Celtic. If the Celtics do manage to contend for a crown this season and find themselves representing the inferior Eastern Conference in the finals, I suspect you won't hear as much from Simmons about Tim Donaghy, the terrible playoff system, or the horrible state of the NBA.

It is past time for another Twins diablog, ostensibly round three in an ongoing conversation about the state of the hometown nine, with participants including yours truly, Warning Track Power blogger and Rake staffer Brad Zellar, and sports maven freelance writer David Brauer. We had similar bits just before the season started and over Memorial Day.

This time it is a bit truncated, in that I made my first post to Zellar and Brauer yesterday afternoon, in between the Twins 1-0 loss on Tuesday and their 3-2 loss on Wednesday. Zellar responded late last night after covering the game at the Dome, and Brauer is currently M.I.A. but will probably speak his mind in the comments section. Same thing goes for my subsequent posts on the subject, and hopefully Zellar's, and hopefully yours.

For the record, my proposal for the Twins to start retooling for next year is hardly a surprise, given my ongoing belief that the team just didn't have enough to contend this season anyway. But Zellar, perhaps in the throes of post-game depression (he does live and die with the Twins on a pretty visceral level), raised at least my eyebrows by proposing, or perhaps just entertaining, a thorough housecleaning.

Read on and then toss in your two cents...

Britt Robson

Fish or cut bait? That's the question facing the Twins on July 18, 93 games into the season, when they are seven back of Detroit and six behind Cleveland with 69 to play. If the Tigers played a smidgen above .500 the rest of the way (36-35), the Twins would have to go 42-27--a higher winning percentage than any current MLB team possesses--just to tie them. And even then, Cleveland would have to also descend into mediocrity rather than continue on with their current status quo.

Obviously I'm in favor of cutting bait. And that means dealing Torii Hunter for the best prospect(s) the team's notoriously wise scouting system can identify.

Before continuing on, it is time for me to eat a little crow on Hunter. I have kept waiting for him to come back to earth and be the dunderheaded free-swinging, guess-oriented, unclutch hitter I've come to know and suspect. But after more than a year now of quality at-bats and solid run production, it is time to believe Hunter's pronouncements of maturity. In last night's excruciating shutout loss to Detroit, Hunter was 0-2 with a lefty on the mound in a scoreless game--exactly the kind of situation when he used to go for broke (and be broken). But four straight times he ignored the meanandering nibbles from Nate Robertson and drew the walk. Bravo. And while his defense may have slipped just a titch, it is still close to Gold Glove-caliber.

The problem isn't with Hunter's current production, it is what he'll command on the free market, especially in terms of contract length. Today happens to be Torii's 32nd birthday. He is going to be offered a contract with a minimum of five years on it for a minimum of $75 million. If the Twins do a deal that pays a 37-year old outfielder at least $15 million in 2012, how much are Justin Morneau, Johan Santana and Joe Mauer worth at that time? Or forget about 2012; if anyone thinks Morneau and Santana aren't a tad curious about how the Hunter situation works out, they're the same starry-eyed lovelies who think the return of Rondell White will happen, let alone help. You give Hunter a fat contract and you simply can't keep both Morneau and Santana.

At least Hunter's biggest media cheerleader, the Strib's Jim Souhan, understands this. When I was on the radio with him late last month, he strongly intimated that Hunter is a greater priority than Santana, on the standard line that Hunter plays every day but Santana is one out of five. As someone who would like to blame either the ganja or the tequila for my deranged opinions on the Orioles Eric Bedard soon eclipsing Santana as the premiere pitcher in the American League (in the comments section of Brad's Warning Track Power blog), I disagree with Souhan. But even so, Souhan's argument is strengthened by the surfeit of pitching prospects in the Twins minor league system and the total absence of quality outfield candidates.

But back to the original, overriding topic. There is always the possibility that the Twins will neither fish nor cut bait, but simply play out the string this season without an attempt to upgrade in either the short-term or long-term with new personnel. In fact, Terry Ryan's temperament and past history would indicate that's the most likely outcome. I think I'm on record in the last two roundtables as saying that if the team does indeed intend to challenge for the AL Central crown, they clearly need a bat, and the season thus far reinforces that view. Does anybody envision Ryan renting a dangerous bat in exchange for one of his precious pitching prospects?

That's why Hunter needs to be dealt, as soon as possible, while his value is still high. And I'd also flip Luis Castillo for a solid prospect. Ditto Rincon or, more plausibly, Matt Guerrier, because a boatload of contenders need bullpen help. I think the Twins have proven that their coterie of scouts assess talent as well or better than any club in baseball. Stockpiling some promising pieces and making a run next year, when all of their key pieces will be another year deeper or nearer their primes, is the smart way to go.

Brad Zellar

It's always viewed as heresy to trade a good player in his prime, but, like most heresies, the long view usually makes the actual act look, at the worst regrettable, and at best, much ado about nothing.

When you think about the great fleecings in Major League history you're usually talking about a decent or even great player being traded for a bunch of guys who nobody'd much heard of at the time. The Pierzynski trade, for instance. And, yeah, I know there are exceptions, but they're actually pretty rare. What I'm saying is that after the fact you generally remember the guys you'd never heard of at the time --Jeff Bagwell, for instance, or Joe Nathan, or Francisco Liriano.

I think Torii Hunter is as good as he's ever going to get. All available evidence--and there's a lot of it--suggests that he's at the age where decline is inevitable, and can be marked. He's sure as hell not worth how much it's now going to cost to keep him. I still believe the Twins erred in not moving him before this year. At this point he becomes a rent-a-player, and savvy as Minnesota's scouting people might be, they're still not in the bargaining position they would have been a year or two ago, so I don't realistically have any idea what the hell they could get for him --or, for that matter, who the hell they'd play in his absence.

That said, I don't see any way they can keep him beyond this year, not after Ichiro's contract.

And the Twins obviously have bigger questions beyond the hole Hunter would leave. They also have other (big) fish to fry in the budget department. Everybody talks about Morneau and Santana in the same breath as Hunter, but there's also the Mauer contract to consider, and the situations of Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, and, now, Pat Neshek.

After tonight's (Wednesday night's) one-run loss to the Tigers, which cost the Twins another game in the standings and provided the latest indicator that this just isn't a team built to contend right now, it seems plenty apparent that Terry Ryan and company need to recognize that their real job at the moment is providing a better supporting cast for their young stars and up-and-coming arms. The farm system might be stocked with pitching, but there's virtually nothing in the way of offensive help on the horizon, and offensive help is what this team desperately needs.

Terry Ryan has done a terrific job, but it's times like this that I wish we had a different, even more reckless, general manager. And along those lines, here's some serious heresy: how much could the Twins get for Johan Santana on the open market right now? A lot, I'm supposing, a shit load. Particularly if they can think creatively (and rationally) enough to recognize that by trading him they're essentially freeing up hundreds of millions of salary down the road.

It would hurt, sure, but how many pitchers of Santana's caliber manage to just keep doing it year in and year out? He already has a lot of innings under his belt --this year should mark the fourth straight season of 200+ innings-- and, yeah, he has great mechanics and is in terrific condition, but pitching is hell on the human arm, and the odds overwhelmingly suggest that he's due at some point in the next two or three years to run into some arm trouble.

Already this season we've seen him laboring in unaccustomed fashion. His fastball isn't quite what it used to be, and some of the inflated pitch counts and prolonged at bats we've seen this year are an indication of that. The 15-pitch at bat Carlos Guillen (in which he fouled off ten of Santana's pitches) had in the fourth inning of tonight's game was the sort of thing we've seen more often this year than in any other season.

Very, very few pitchers ever end up justifying gigantic, long-term, guaranteed contracts. It's just the reality of the game, and the Twins aren't the sort of team that's in a position to gamble on the durability and continued excellence of a starting pitcher, no matter how good he might presently be. They've got pitchers. They got more pitchers coming. What they need right now, and into the future, are some guys who can hit the fucking ball.

All right, I'm just in a hog-wild, if-I-ran-the-zoo frame of mind (those last couple games will do that to a guy), but if you put any stock at all in Billy Beane's philosophy you likely wouldn't hesitate to unload Joe Nathan to the highest bidder and install Neshek in his place.

Neshek has been phenomenal, he clearly has stones, and he's got the nasty stuff and freak-show intangibles to be a closer.

Closers are overrated: look at the guy who was on the mound for the Tigers at the end of the game tonight (Todd Jones) --he's wearing his eighth different Major League uniform, had a brief stint with the Twins, and is on his second go-round with Detroit.

Or look at Joe Borowski in Cleveland. Or Francisco Cordero in Milwaukee.

Also, yes, absolutely, go ahead and see what you can get for Castillo and Rincon. The Twins can call up Alexi Casilla and throw him out there at second or third --he can swap around the rest of the year with Punto and Rodriguez.

I'd hang onto Guerrier, just because the guy has been so tremendous this year after being forced into a bigger role in a pinch. But if the organization has shown one consistent knack over the years, it's the ability to find and groom guys just like Guerrier (and Neshek, and, for that matter, Rincon).

I'll get to the Twins later this month, I promise, hopefully in tandem with Brauer and Zellar but also to talk about whether Terry Ryan ought to go for it or punt.

Meanwhile, this board is delightfully full of Wolves fiends. I owe you my two cents on some of the things you've been talking about.

First of all, there is no way you can play Craig Smith at the 3. Under the new rules, he actually is better suited as a 5, although his natural position is as an undersized power forward. Does anyone else remember poor Smith trying to guard Vlad Rad, who killed him from outside during that second collapse against the Lakers? Shedding 14 pounds doesn't make Smith quick enough to play a swingman out on the open floor, and anytime a Wolves opponent saw the opportunity that's what would happen.

Used right, Smith is a valuable piece. And paired with the right pivot man--Yao Ming would be ideal--he'd be a solid starter. Yes he works well with Garnett, and yes there are definitely periods of the game when they should play together. But the matchups have to be right: the flow, the foul situation, and what you've got as your next sub rotation, are all factors.

If Smith continues to improve, and also gets the benefit of the doubt on more charging calls this season, I can see him averaging between 20-30 minutes a game, but the time would fluctuate game to game.

I don't want to open this can of worms, but I am not entirely convinced KG is here to start the season.

I think McCants is generally going to be streaky. That's certainly been his m.o. the first two seasons, and the key is to feed the beast when he is going off, and to have him have enough maturity and the coaches and teammates enough clout and sway to stifle him, either by ball-sharing or Shaddy-benching, when he is in a funk. If he plays the kind of defense he showed last season, the rope on his offensive ego should be longer. Bottom line, he is a bigger wild card than Foye--less of a sure thing to be solid, but with a higher upside--and now is the time to play wild cards and find out if they're aces or jokers.

Brewer is a great pick for this franchise.
Great team attitude, and the kind of virtues--defense, athleticism, versatility--that really fit into any scheme or system. Richard is a smart choice for the second round. Rip McHale all you want--and I do a regular basis--but that's three pretty good drafts in a row.

It is very hard to talk about this franchise without seeing what other shoes drop. The braintrust has made no secret of the fact that there are other deals on the table, and there are a lot of teams in flux right now, either stocking up for the future and trying to win now. But one thing that can be said: The best argument for why Randy Wittman is here is that he will demand better chemistry in the locker room and on the court this season. Last season he essentially benched Trenton Hassell for attitude problems, then the squad went out and drafted a better Hassell. Fine, I like Hassell, but am willing to concede he's not so valuable now. Bujt what about Davis and Blount? What they did to the team and their own reputations--not to mention Wittman--last season is not easily forgotten. If one or both is still on the roster come opening day, there needs to be a dramatically different dynamic at play. Otherwise, the Wittman rehire and the stand pat on corrosive chemistry will stink to high heaven.

In a comment on the draft thread, Snyder makes an excellent suggestion of starting a summer league thread for Wolves' die-hards who want to paw over the results of this week's five games out in Las Vegas.

I've been tied up on a large project recently, but promise to chime in here soon on this subject. Meanwhile, yes, from this account and also Kent Youngblood's piece in today's Strib, it looks as if Smith and Brewer are showing well together. I'd also suggest that Rashad McCants be watched closely. When I was at the Target Center a couple weeks ago, the difference in his movement and quickness was apparent. An upgraded McCants who can combine the explosive athleticism of his rookie year with the emotional maturity of his second season would be significant.