The Rake Magazine

^{AFP/Getty Images/Gregory Shamus}
 

Yeah, I know I still owe the second part of the Wolves season recap. But I confess that this steady diet of *quality* NBA basketball has made a return to Wolves-think fairly depressing. I will get to it in the next few days. Meanwhile, here are some thoughts on the playoffs thus far...

Celtics and Pistons both in a dogfight

Kevin Garnett and Flip Saunders are back in the pressure-cooker. Both have had very successful careers that are at least slightly besmirched by their (thus far) inability to elevate their game when it matters most. I find it interesting and inevitable that the KG backlash is occurring on the heels of the two losses in Atlanta. First of all, it wasn't his man torching the club from outside all game--why Doc Rivers chose to ride with Ray Allen on Joe Johnson instead of throwing James Posey or Tony Allen on JJ, or even Rondo, with Allen switching to Bibby, is, ah perplexing. Or incompetent. I could also mention that Garnett had a whopping six steals and a team-best plus +7 in 41:59, meaning the Celts were minus -12 in the 6:01 he wasn't on the floor.

But KG was around for the entire fourth quarter collapse. And in addition to Joe Johnson's 20 points in the period, Josh Smith had 12 points and 5 rebounds (versus KG's 5 and 2), which included 8-8 FT. Going against Smith and Al Horford, both of whom he can finesse and muscle in the low block, Garnett should have stopped deferring to a dinged up Pierce and a defensively-bewildered Allen and started to go for his. Because with Cleveland, either Detroit or Orlando, and the Western champ on the horizon, it is not going to get any easier. I know this is not in KG's natural make-up. But as one who named him the year's MVP and steadfastly defended him ever since Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley unfairly called him out in the playoffs five or six years ago, he needs to see that giving himself and his team the crunchtime dimension of him in the low block is crucial to the Celts success further down the road. No time like the present to sift it in.

But KG has it easy compared to Flip Saunders. Always a player's coach (meaning he doesn't challenge anybody and relies on self-policing) and a stickler for midrange jumpers, Flip simply doesn't have the tools most vital for guiding a team through the gauntlet of playoff hoops--the capacity to trigger that extra gear the players themselves didn't even know they had, and the ability to win games at the free throw line. The Celtics' losses are fairly easy to explain--they were way too overconfident in Game 3 and then got bushwacked by a white-hot outside shooter in Game 4. But the Pistons' performance has been horrible thus far--raise your hand if you think Philly won Games 1 and 3 more than Detroit lost them. What happened to Chauncey Billups? Seriously, Andre Miller is exactly the kind of matchup he should be dominating--Miller is if anything a poor man's Billups--and yet Miller is the one coming up large. And isn't it time to start running more plays for Tayshaun Prince, who remains a 4th option on this club after Rip, 'Sheed, and Billups, all of whom seem to be both overconfident and lacking synergy while Prince keeps bailing them out with jumpers on the baseline.

I think the Celts and Pistons will both ultimately prevail. But the second round in the East has suddenly gotten a lot more interesting.

Magic and Lakers first to advance

The only great surprise here is that George Karl is apparently coming back for another year in Denver. Okay, if Karl's not responsible for what may be the biggest waste of pure talent on an NBA franchise, who is? How can any self-respecting coach sit and watch an entire season of opponents consistently getting into the paint--off the dribble, feeding the post, interior passes, transition, you name it--and not take drastic steps to curtail it? All year long, the Nugs frittered away 15 point leads and made 15 point comebacks on games they lost by 5-10 points. They are a bunch of lazy underachievers who have a pile of individual accolades and absolutely no desire to play as a team. Whether Karl is the instigator or merely the enabler of that culture, he's got to go.

What won the series for the Lakers was ball movement, which ranks with team defense and superstar wattage as the requisite X factors for a championship ballclub. In Kobe, Gasol and Odom, LA has the perfect front line for the new hand-checking rules, a trio that can all tussle in the paint and extend their games out 17 feet (for Kobe of course it is beyond the 3-pt arc). Each has the combination of height and quickness to be a nightmare matchup one-on-one, so if all decide to sling the rock to the open man, it is difficult to imagine how they are stopped. Then again, they just got through with four games with the Nugs, who can make anyone look good on offense.

In the underground series that nobody watched, the Magic dispatched the Raps in 5, which makes perfect sense when you consider that there is nobody on Toronto's roster who can match up with Dwight Howard. And yes, it really is that simple.

Spurs and Jazz on the verge

I make no bones about rooting hard for the Houston Rockets in their series with the Jazz. I've always regarded Yao as the most overrated NBA player this side of Vince Carter, and so when Houston keep ratcheting up their 22-game winning streak after Yao went down, I egotistically felt validated and started paying attention to what they were doing. And I fell in love with the way rooks Luis Scola and Carl Landry muck it up in the paint at both ends of the court, and noticed the parallels between Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett--their mixture of breathtaking talent and self-effacing teamwork. And Shane Battier needs to be on the USA Olympic Team, as he combines the best of the European style (smart in the half court, good from beyond the arc, passes well without a lot of fanfare) with the American grit of tenacious D. I knew in my head Houston would probably not fare well versus the Jazz, especially with Rafer Alston on the shelf for the first two games at home, but my heart went with Houston as I picked them in 7.

My head was right but my heart is satiated. Houston has played inspiring ball thus far, with Landry recovering from a slow start to deliver a key block to win Game 3 on the road, this after Carlos Boozer knocked out his tooth with a forearm that the refs didn't even whistle. Battier has been marvelous and McGrady is a wonderfully tortured soul, sloe-eyed and pretending implacability as the emotions race across his face. It's just that the Jazz have the matchup that matters, in this case at the point position. Deron Williams gives the impression that he can abuse Alston off the dribble whenever he feels like it. In Game 4, Rick Carlisle said as much before D-Will turned him into a prophet with a pair of almost-casual crunchtime drives to the hoop. Alston simply doesn't have the bulk to deter Williams, so no matter how much Scola and Landry and Mutombo negate Boozer--which they have, far more than Yao could ever dream--Utah can get to the rack.

It's been said many times, but having Kyle Korver along with Okur to stretch the defense makes it absolutely imperative that the opposing point at least throw Williams off stride a bit. If and when the Jazz get by Houston (and I can't emotionally throw the Rockets under the bus yet), it will be interesting to see how Derek Fisher fares, not to mention Jordan Farmar. The Jazz need a monster series from their point guard to counteract LA's advantage almost everywhere else, but they just might get it.

Meanwhile, as someone who grew up in Boston and spent his boyhood watching the Celts rack up 11 rings in 13 years (yeah, I'm that old, and yeah it was as much fun as it sounds--why do you think I write about hoops?), I've got to say that with each passing year, the Spurs give me more and more vintage Celtic flashbacks. They aren't exact matches, of course, but it is hard not to notice the similarities between Bill Russell and Tim Duncan, or John Havilcek and Manu Ginobili. You never hear Tony Parker get mentioned as one of the game's great point guards, yet there is he, dismantling opponents in the playoffs--ditto Sam and KC Jones, back in the day. As for the coaches, well, Red Auerbach and Gregg Popovich both have an asshole streak that gets transferred into a virtue on the sideline. In Game 3 against the Suns, Oberto didn't rotate over to stop a layup, allowing Phoenix to pull to 27-14, down 13 instead of 15, late in the first quarter. Pops immediately called a timeout and chewed Oberto up and down.

Think about that for a moment. Or think about Duncan, Ginobili and Parker in crunch time--or, hell, Robert Horry. You think the Suns have three more wins in them to take the Spurs four in a row?

A eulogy for Phoenix, but not for Dallas

I feel badly for Steve Nash, one of the classiest players in recent times, and an amazing competitor who more than anybody has had to sublimate his game since the Shaq trade. I go with the conventional wisdom that the Shaq deal both doomed the Suns to an earlier exit than they otherwise might have achieved with the Matrix, and was still a worthwhile gamble for Steve Kerr to have attempted, given that it also marginally increased their chances of winning it all for a roster that is running out of time. So, kudos to Kerr for having the stones to make the swap, but let's remember that the flameout of the Suns was utterly predictible. All these jackasses who claimed the Suns would beat the Spurs are now blaming Mike D'Antoni, as if this particular coach has ever played any other way but to exploit opponents who had guys like Shaq on the floor. Do people really want to blame D'Antoni for the way the Spurs have destroyed Phoenix on the pick and roll during this series? I seem to recall a pretty good coach, name of Phil Jackson, who couldn't get Shaq to play the pick and roll either. It requires a lot of stop and go, plant and pivot, and that is something a man of Shaq's size had difficulty with before he was old and had to work hard to stay in shape.

But back to Nash: Does anybody else miss the freelancing Nash who flew down the floor, dribbling like a dervish, deciding which hand he was going to use for a delicious bounce pass to a fellow-flying teammate for a showtime slam? Does anybody else miss the frenetic pace that discombobulated opponents and gave the advantage to the selfless passer and deadly long-range shooter who would stick the trey if you sped to guard the hoop and shimmied his way into the paint if you stopped at the arc, secure in the knowledge at least two teammates, and maybe three, were perched at various points outside the arc to take advantage of the driive and kick? The presence of Shaq, and the emergence of Amare Stoudamire's terrifying midrange game, has pretty much taken the magic out of Nash's hands, making it extremely difficult for him to build up the rhythms and patterns that bedevil those guarding him. Now when the Suns need Nash to come up with something miraculous, it is totally outside their normal flow of play, and that flow was always Nash's (and D'Antoni's) secret weapon. Too bad. Don't rip Nash or D'Antoni for this debacle; hey, don't even rip Kerr or Shaq, who have done all they can to turn flax into gold this season down in the desert. But it just ain't gonna happen.

There is no way I am going to wax rhapsodically in a similar fashion about the way the Mavericks have destroyed their team. The Jason Kidd trade was stupidity incarnate. Consider that the only "defense" people had of the deal when it was made--smart people anyway, who knew they had to acknowledge Kidd wasn't what he used to be--was to argue that Kidd really hadn't lost two or three steps on defense, he just became unmotivated in New Jersey. Ah, I see, he's not old, just a malingerer.

No, he's old. As I've said a few times already on this site, he's not worth Diop and Harris straight up, without the two draft picks. In fact Dallas is old, and unless Stackhouse and Terry shoot lights out beside Dirk in the next few games, they are going down hard, soon to be dismantled. Too bad for Avery Johnson, who did a marvelous job hatching a Maginot Line defense in place of the unsuccessful traps in an effort to stop Chris Paul. And it has worked the past two games. The problem is that Erick Dampier can't carry Tyson Chandler's jockstrap, putting pressure on Dirk to rebound as well as score and distribute. That and the fact that Stackhouse and Josh Howard are wilting under pressure, giving the lie to all those citations about the Mavs' playoff experience--Dallas is experienced like Hillary Clinton is experienced.

Even if I wasn't in contempt of the Kidd trade, it would be hard to root against the Hornets. Tyson Chandler is the second-best center in the NBA behind Dwight Howard; better than Yao, certainly, and everything that Marcus Camby is supposed to be. He allows Chris Paul to gamble on defense (or take a play or two off) out on the perimeter, is able to rotate over when the iffy MoPete and Peja lose their man, and has tremendous, almost telepathic, communication with David West when protecting the paint. Then you've got heroes coming off the bench--Pargo for 30? The rook Wright in Game 4? Even Peja isn't choking. So, while I'll shed a virtual tear for the exit of Nash and (the soon to be scapegoated?) D'Antoni, I'll cheer the demise of Dallas (despite my affection for Mark Cuban).

Note: I know I said I'd have a Wolves recap for you Monday, but with all the playoff ball consuming my time (not to mention other writing projects--my editors know what they are) I now realize I'm never going to get this done unless I break it into parts.

So, here's Part 1, which deals with what I wanted to hear from Kevin McHale at his season-ending press conference last week. (Please bear with the changes in typeface that may crop up because I cut and pasted some of the press conference transcription.) At least one other part will be an evaluation of each player on the roster: Both how I regard him and how I believe the Wolves' front office regards him. Anyway, thanks for your patience. I'm also willing to kick around the playoffs, if anybody is interested, and will probably in the next couple of days set up an open thread with a bevy of impressions to get things rolling and see what happens. 

When Timberwolves personnel veep Kevin McHale did his by-now traditional meeting with the media the day after the 2007-08 season to discuss the State of the Ballclub, his mood was decidedly more upbeat and the number of reporters he was addressing was much smaller than in recent years past. Part of the reason (for both) was that there was no buzz McHale was going to step down. The other part (again, for both) was that the bar of expectations had been set so low, especially for the immediate past and future of this ballclub.

McHale sought to change that some with his dramatic proclamation that, barring significant injuries, the 2008-09 Wolves should improve by some 20 games, flirting with .500, if not a bottom-rung playoff spot in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. And how was this going to occur? Essentially by standing pat and letting the existing personnel get more familiar with each other.

McHale said this two or three different ways, but just to be clear, I asked him, "Beyond the seasoning of existing personnel, what does this team need?" This is what he said:

"It needs to come together and play. Everybody says 'We’ve got to go and get somebody from the outside,' [but] those guys have got to go in there and grow together as a team, establish themselves a little bit—Al has established himself—kind of, underneath that how are we going to play, our style of play, becomes more dedicated defensively in getting back; our transition defense needs a big step up. Defensively we have got to get tougher. So most of the growth I see is internally. Now in the draft we’ll get a good player in the draft, but with way it is set up we’ll get a 19, 20, 21 year old kid; if you are hanging your hopes on that coming into a man’s league….I would say that, overall, I would just say basically a little more shooting around Al, because he is going to get double-teamed and you have got to have court-spacers. But I thought Foye, when you had Foye and used Foye to enter the ball on the strong side and when you left him he made shots; that is a big part of it. Because I think Bassy was out trying [to distribute], not shooting a lot. Again I think shooting. But to me the biggest jump we are going to make is that group in there staying together and being confident."

Asked point blank what *besides* seasoning is needed, McHale repeatedly invoked seasoning.

There are two fundamental problems with this. Minnesota does not have a legitimate NBA center on its current roster capable of starting for a playoff contender. The other fundamental problem is that the Wolves have a glut of swingmen. You could argue--I do argue--that unless Randy Foye dramatically improves his court vision and attitude and Corey Brewer dramatic improves his strength and sinew, the team's last three top draft picks are all best suited to play the off-guard position. And yet McHale specifically cites the two aspects of the game in which off-guards are thought to be most adept--transition defense and outside shooting--as the two largest areas where this ballclub needs to improve. 

I understand where McHale is coming from. He's not going to say this team needs a hardy, defensive oriented big man, because unless he's going to reach for a player based on position more than talent in the draft, or overpay in free agency, there doesn't look to be any way to address that weakness. By contrast, talking about the need for shooting and transition defense sets the to-do agenda for his swingman glut heading into next season. I'd have more sympathy for his hands being tied if he wasn't the one spooling out the rope.

But make no mistake: Minnesota will never be a viable playoff contender without a staunch big men to take the defensive pressure off the team's two best players, Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes. A steady diet of postseason games has reminded me what it takes to be an elite NBA team: A bonafide superstar, a demi-star, knowledgeable role players, and capable team defense. It is possible--not quite probable--that Jefferson is a budding superstar. Gomes is certainly a knowledgeable role player who can find a niche on most any ballclub. But put them on the court together at center and power forward and you cannot defend in a playoff-worthy manner.

The numbers at 82games.com show that the Wolves allow a whopping 12.1 points per 48 minutes more when Jefferson is on the court (116 points per 48) than when he is off it (103.9 points per game). One reason for this is because opposing centers have an eFG% (which factors in three-pointers, not generally applicable to centers and power forwards) of 56.3%. By contrast, the power forwards Jefferson guarded had an eFG% of 40.3%. Unfortunately, the sample size for Jefferson at the 4 is woefully small, so we don't know if that excellent D on eFG% would hold up; but we do know his inept defense in the pivot, where he played exponentially more minutes, overwhelms that performance. And we know that even a scorer as gifted as Big Al isn't going to lead his team to many victories if that team is ceding 116 points per game.

On to Ryan Gomes. Whereas Jefferson had a huge disparity between his minutes at center and those at power forward, Gomes, because he went to small forward not only when a center was slotted in beside Jefferson, but when Craig Smith or Antoine Walker entered the game, is shown to have played 26% of his team's minutes at small forward and 34% of the Wolves' time at power forward (meaning he was on the court approximately 60% of the time). Thus, his stats between the two positions are a little more reliable in comparison to each other. And again according to 82games.com, Gomes yielded an eFG% of 48.6% to the small forwards he guarded versus 54.7% to the power forwards he guarded. (His own eFG% was better at power forward--49.7% versus 48.5% at the 3--but not enough to overcome the disparity of his less effective D in the low block.)

Fortunately, McHale understands this. When I asked him at last week's press conference: "Are you comfortable, long term with Jefferson at center and Gomes at the 4?" here is what he said.

"Well I don’t think, I think that Al is a 4-5, not a 5-4, and that Ryan is a power 3-4. Ryan gets more shots at the 4 because he can move around and all those big guys have that paint fixation. But he rebounds better at the 3, posts up better at the 3. They give you flexibility and that is a good thing. Do I want to see that 4-5 combination for 48 minutes? No. I would like to have another big guy for when Al plays the 4. Al has got to get better defensively. Randy Foye has got to get better defensively, Rashad McCants has got to get better defensively, Ryan Gomes, all those guys have to get better defensively. I like the versatility that they give you and again that is why I like bigger players that can do different things. To me Gomes may have scored more at that 4 spot, but to me he punished teams more when he was offensively rebounding and going into the post at the 3. I like that style of play. But he can play both."

When I pointed out that the vast bulk of minutes wound up with Al playing center and Gomes playing power forward, McHale acknowledged: "For 25-30 games, yeah. And I thought we fell into that. They are both two-position players which are really good to have. [But] you don’t like Ryan Gomes, who works really hard, against Rasheed Wallace. What you really like him playing 4 is against Luis Scola who is sitting in the paint. But what I like is you can make one substitution and go huge or one substitution and go small."

Compounding the problem is the fact that the Wolves play horrible perimeter defense, and have for as long as I can remember. It wasn't quite as deadly when Kevin Garnett was the superstar in residence, and totally committed to the defensive end. (KG's willpower slipped the last two seasons he was in Minnesota. I thought it was age until I saw him this season in Boston, reborn as a panther capable of hounding anyone from the three point arc to the low block.)

The third and final question I asked McHale was: "For some reason perimeter defense has been a chronic defect of this franchise. Why has that happened?" His reply was: "It bothers me too. It bothered me for twelve years. For me it goes back to 7^th grade basketball: If you can’t keep your man in front of you, I’m going to take you out. Don’t let him cut in front of you and keep your rear end between him and the rim. That’s as tricky as I like to make it and sometimes I think we scheme up so much we got so many schemes going on that we lose sight of that. We have got to get better at that, at containing the ball. The good teams in our league defensively contain the ball. They may have holes in other areas but they contain the ball…That is a definite, huge area of concern that we have got to work on."

To me, that in a nutshell is why the Wolves only won 22 games this season: They played an undersized lineup where the center and power forward couldn;t effectively defend their counterpart, and they allowed perimeter players to penetrate into the paint almost at will.

^{AP Photo/The Plain Dealer, Joshua Gunter}

The obvious pundit's take on yesterday's playoff games was that the big guys stepped up, especially LeBron, Duncan, and CP3. Here are some of the dominant impressions I came away with after plastering myself to the rocking chair and catching all of two games and the majority of two others.

Cleveland 93, Washington 86

Two things the Wizards should have feared--that Deshawn Stevenson's asinine comment about LeBron being "overrated" would give him a dollop more motivation, and that Gilbert Arenas would abandon his teammates and try and match LeBron bucket for bucket in crunchtime-- came to pass. That stupendous first half dunk where LeBron not only climbed the ladder but got out a special, heretofore unknown stepstool and put it on top of the ladder to reach Boobie Gibson's too-high feed will be shown in any five-minute recap of his career. but it was the two hoops he made with the score knotted at 84 with 2:38 to play--blowing past Stevenson for a layup and then a little runner just inside the foul line--that truly demonstrates his championship-bound DNA. Arenas, meanwhile, shot 0-4 in that final 2:38 and had no desire to dish it off to one of his two very capable teammates, Antawn Jamison and, even better, Caron Butler, the guy who average 20.3 ppg for the season yet managed to squeeze off only 10 FGA yesterday, making half of them. The fact that Arenas fouled out in 27:47 doesn't speak well for his mobility either--all the more reason to be realistic about what he can bring to the table in this series. BTW, Stevenson was 1-9 FG--isn't that always the way with guys who talk louder than they walk in hopes of elevating themselves through pressure. Or perhaps it just doomed egotism.

Two more quick thoughts: The Cavs, supposedly the one-man team, had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 24/8, while the Wiz, who should be distributing the rock among their plethora of scorers, went 16/13 and shot 40.2%. The matchup that really killed Washington was Z Ilgauskas (22-11-4 and a game-best plus +22 in 37:15) over Brendan Haywood (15-10-0 and five fouls in a game-worst minus -19 in 29:59).

San Antonio 117, Phoenix 115 (2OT)

How can anyone not regard NBA hoops as the greatest sportswatching pasttime after this classic? The Fundamental for 3 to bump it into a second overtime?!

Okay, that's the only blatantly obvious highlight in a bouquet of big, big plays that I'll rhapsodize about. If you saw it, you know, and if you didn't, there are buzz-oriented recaps available elsewhere. Odds are you can find these following pearls of wisdom repeated elsewhere too, but these are the things that stuck in my head from the latest chapter in this amazing Spurs-Suns saga.

The Shaq trade was as much addition by subtraction as through the presence of Baby Huey Aristotle himself. I don't know how much Amare Stoudamire actively disliked Shawn Marion as a human being, but ever since the Matrix went to Miami, Stoudamire has been unstoppable on the pick and roll, deadly pulling up for jumpers at the charity stripe, and, here's the real dividend, invested in team play enough to become an average defender. Now I'll grant you that Tim Duncan clearly dislikes having Shaq on his back in the low block, but let's also be clear how little Shaq had to do with Phoenix being up 43-27 in the first 17 minutes--he had zero points, one rebound and three fouls in about 5 minutes of play. No, it was Nash-to-Amare (5 dimes and 10 pts, respectively) and the space that threat opened up for Barbosa (9 pts) and Diaw (8 pts) that built that lead, abetted by a bunch of Spur turnovers and horrible performances at both ends of the court by Finley and Parker.

I don't care how often Shaq can get inside Duncan's head (he scored 40 points anyway); he nonexistant pick-and-roll shows and abject inability to otherwise deter penetration by Ginobili and Parker cost the Suns a game they should have won. I say this as a longtime defender and admirer of Shaq. Compounding the misery for Suns fans was the presence of Kurt Thomas, doing for San Antonio exactly what Phoenix craved: Low post defense and rugged box-outs on the boards. Put Kurt Thomas on the Suns and leave both Shaq and the Matrix in Miami so Amare could run free and Phoenix might just have won this game (I qualify it only because I'm not sure the Spurs ever lose a game they *need* to have).

I love the way the Spurs play basketball. But--and I know I am late to the party on this--I have come to detest the way they blatantly whine about every single call. Yesterday's snit-fit was their worst display yet--no mean feat about these cry-babies. Duncan literally jumped up and down and stamped his feet on one call. Yeah, I know there was a play where he was whistled for a foul on a jumper where he obviously didn't touch the shooter. But when he went ballistic, Bennett Salvatore literally give it a second thought, because, like the boy who cried wolf, Duncan is going to bitch whether it was a phantom foul or there's blood on the floor. And now, increasingly, Tony Parker and the flopping Ginobili are escalating their aggravated martrydom stances. The Spurs franchise should be apprised of how much this constant bullshit detracts from the classy performance their team displays when the clock is ticking.

Which brings me to the commentators. Mark Jackson's pro-Shaq bias was flagrantly on display on the two quick whistles his man received. The first found Shaq swinging one of his formidable forearms aside the noggin of Oberto--Jackson claimed it should have been a non-call. TOn the second, an obvious foul where Shaq tried to draw a charge but was clearly standing inside the circle, Jackson literally said "that ain't right" because he doesn't agree with the circle rule! Then there was the time Shaq was whistled for a foul on Kurt Thomas and Jackson derisively called Thomas a notorious flopper--flash to the replay, showing Shaq with his forearm on Thomas's neck, pushing Thomas's head below Shaq's waist.

Now sometimes Jeff Van Gundy enabled his partner's idiocy--demerits there. But I don't remember JVG being so pleasantly loosey-goosey before, the opposite of his anal coaching style. When Jackson tried to give him shit about using the word "acquiesce" (that's right, don't get too uppity Mark), Van Gundy disbelievingly replied that he wasn't going to dumb himself down during the broadcast. Then there was Van Gundy's caustic rip on the 6th Man Award and his statement that he'd "rip Michael Finley's head off" for not sliding over in rotation earlier on a three-point play in the paint. More to the point, Van Gundy was loaded with compelling insights. He identified San Antonio's hack-a-Skinner strategy in fouling Brian Skinner, in order to squeeze another possession or two out of the end of the first half, a manuver that indeed paid off handsomely for the Spurs. And he pointed out the deeper level of defensive strategy--how San Antonio would be successful if Grant Hill was shooting a two-pointer, even if Hill hit the shot; the point being to have Finley play D in a manner that forces Hill, and not Amare, Nash or Shaq, to beat you.

Final quick thoughts:

One negative of the Shaq deal and the Amare emergence is less emphasis on Steve Nash distributing off the dribble. Nearly every single shot Nash hit yesterday was a crucial bucket--the guy was just brilliant--and it would behoove the Suns to let him freelance with the ball a little more frequently to throw another option into the mix--because Bruce Bowen ain't what he used to be on defense.

Raja Bell, on the other hand, had a superb defensive game for the first three quarters and then, like the rest of the Suns, couldn't stop San Antonio's penetration.

Another tremendous coaching performance from Pops. He was dead-on when he noted that the Spurs "seemed in a hurry" on offense in the first half, and that Duncan trey was clearly a designed play--that takes some stones. [*Update: There are now some reports that the play wasn't designed. The Spurs freelanced the Duncan trey!] Phoenix was 21-1 when leading heading into the final period. Thanks to Pops and the usual crunchtime crew--we didn't even bother noting Ginobili's game-winner until now--the Suns are 21-2 and feeling that snake bite.

New Orleans 104, Dallas 92

Dallas was doomed the day Mark Cuban decided Jason Kidd was worth Dasagna Diop *and* Devin Harris, never mind the two #1 picks. Without those two guys, it is much harder for the Mavs to post up and much harder to penetrate. The most revealing stat in yesterday's game was that Dallas shot 19-56, just 34%, from *inside* the three-point arc. The extent to which the Mavs have entrusted their offense to Kidd can be seen in the fact that the other four starters *combined* for just four assists, and three of those were from Jerry Stackhouse.

That Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard had one dime between them, while Erick Dampier put up just five shots, indicates imbalances all over the place. On the other side, David West had four blocks, Chris Paul four steals, Tyson Chandler as many offensive boards, 7, as any Dallas player had on the defensive board. As I said in my preview, New Orleans is longer, quicker, and the patently better team. Now Jason Terry and Stackhouse aren't going to combine for 5-16 FG every game, and Nowitzki and Kidd are proud veterans who have seen much better days and know their window is closing with this franchise, which should make for some ferocious contests the rest of the way. But the future is in New Orleans' court.

Utah 93, Houston 82

The outcome of this one was predictable, even if I pig-headedly predicted it the other way. Without their center (Yao) and point guard (Alston), Houston's bench is perilously thin and green, and the Jazz took advantage. None of the Jazz starters were better than plus +5 nor Houston's worse than minus -6, but Chuck Hayes was minus -17 in 15:36 and Carl Landry (a particular favorite of mine) was minus -12 in 11:09. By contrast, Matt Harpring was plus +19 and Kyle Korver plus +17 off the bench for Utah.

This was a gritty game, full of sweat and elbows. Luis Scola made me feel really smart about my ROY pick by battling Carlos Boozer to a draw, and Shane Battier worked the seams and Utah's fixation on Tracy McGrady to get a game-high 22 points with an ultra efficient 7-7 FG. But Bobby Jackson was out of his league thrust in against Deron Williams, shooting 3-15 FG and doling out just 3 assists. T-Mac was the de facto point guard for the Rockets and he concentrated on the task a tad too diligently, passing up makeable shots to "get everyone involved," especially in the first three periods. If McGrady can only muster 20 points on 21 attempts (he sank 7), the Rockets are toast unless Landry and Hayes grow up in a hurry or Alston makes a miraculous recovery that has him at full strength by Game Two.

Houston actually led briefly in the third quarter, but I thought the game turned on a pair of treys Korver buried to turn a 2-point Jazz lead into eight during the last three minutes of the third. After that, Utah just wore the Rockets out. Few teams are better at that the one coached by Jerry Sloan. If the Rockets don't get off the mat in the next contest, there won't be any more basketball in Houston this postseason.

Here are today's playoff picks:

Toronto (6) vs. Orlando (3)

Pivotal points: Both teams like the long ball and the Raps are actually a little better at it, making this a potentially volatile series. Can Toronto exploit its distinct advantage at point guard (Calderon/Ford over Nelson/Arroyo) to compensate for its lack of an answer for Dwight Howard down low? How does Toronto, a team that looks so good on paper (balanced scoring, better than 2/1 assist/turnover ratio teamwide) finish only .500—a dozen games below the Magic?

My guesses: The Magic play classic inside-outside basketball with Howard in the paint and Turkoglu and Lewis using their length to get off treys outside. Toronto can make this a series if Chris Bosh hits enough midrange J’s to bring Howard outside his defensive comfort zone, if Howard is frequently fouled and clanks at the line, and if Toronto’s bevy of long-range chuckers get reasonably warm. That will be worth a couple of games.

My pick: Orlando in 6.

Philadelphia (7) vs. Detroit (2)

Pivotal points: Is Philly just happy to be here or capable of overachieving on the momentum of its remarkable second-half push to the postseason? Conversely, will the Pistons be subconsciously taking a team who finished 19 games behind them for granted while they look ahead to Orlando and Boston? Does Flip Saunders continue to play 10 guys or shorten his bench?

My guesses: Tayshaun Prince is Andre Iguodala’s bad dream, Chauncey Billups is one of the few point guards Andre Miller can’t post up, and Samuel Dalembert’s shot-blocking is wasted on a ballclub that excels at Saunders’ midrange, low-turnover offense. So how did Philly split four games with the Pistons this year? Dunno. But the playoffs are a different animal.

My pick: Detroit in 4.

Denver (8) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1)

Pivotal points: Will a team sporting Marcus Camby and Anthony Carter among its starting five ever decide to play team defense? Who matches up with Kobe Bryant? Will the Lakers play their controlled, triangle-offense game, or get suckered into a shootout?

My guesses: Melo and AI put up gaudy individual numbers next to their team L’s as they have done much of the season. By default, the main Kobe-checkers are the chuckleheaded JR Smith and the offensively challenged Yakhouba Diawara (with a little bit of AC and maybe even Linus Kleiza also thrown into the breach), all to no avail. The Nugs will win once when the score is over a combined 240, but this colossal waste of talent won’t see the second round.

My pick: Lakers in 5 or 6.

Atlanta (8) vs. Boston (1)

Pivotal points: Will Josh Smith, a poor man’s Kevin Garnett, make the most of his time in the spotlight opposite KG? Has Ray Allen been napping as third wheel to conserve energy for the postseason, or will Joe Johnson abuse him on defense? Will the Hawks be able to break 100 in this series?

My guesses: There will be at least one monster blowout and at least one improbable Atlanta victory, maybe even in the first two games at the Garden. Expect a great series from Rajon Rondo who will outplay the more heralded Mike Bibby at both ends of the court. Johnson will go off, but so will Paul Pierce, who will make life worse for Marvin Williams, increasingly known as the guy taken ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams.

My pick: Boston in 5.

Okay, we've waited until the last minute and now it's time to roll. I still reserve the right to change my mind about Coach of the Year and MVP.

 Defensive Player of the Year

Winner: Kevin Garnett

Runner-Up: Rasheed Wallace

Honorable Mention: Tyson Chandler, Kobe Bryant, Raja Bell

Comment: The Celts phenomenal improvement with untested and proven-mediocre defenders surrounding him makes this the easiest pick of the postseason. Wallace and Chandler were both stalwarts in the paint for very good defensive units, Kobe wanted to play D a little bit more this season, and Bell has lost less than Bruce Bowen.

Sixth Man of the Year

Winner: Manu Ginobili

Runner Up: Jason Terry

Honorable Mention: Leandro Barbosa

Comment: Ginobili was the most clutch player in the league this year and arguably the real leader of the Spurs this season. Terry and Barbosa were heads above the rest but well behind Manu.

Most Improved Player

Winner: Hedo Turkoglu

Runner Up: LaMarcus Aldridge, Mike Dunleavy, Al Jefferson

Comment: Second-year guys are *supposed* to improve, which penalizes Aldridge a bit here and gives more credit to Turkoglu, who held firm to second on the Magic's pecking order despite the signing of Rashard Lewis. I'm not the only person who has been sneering at Dunleavy ever since he went too high in the draft--kudos to him for the perseverence. The Jefferson shout-out is not a homer call; "Big Al" assumed team leadership, played out of position all season and still finished tied for second in double-doubles.

Rookie of the Year

Winner: Luis Scola

Runner Up: Al Horford

Honorable Mention: Thaddeus Young, Kevin Durant, Al Thornton

Comment: That Durant is favored to win this award makes as much sense as Vince Carter leading the all star voting all those years. The easiest thing in the world to do is chuck up shots for a losing team, which Durant did at an inaccurate rate (43%, 29% from 3pt). Yeah, I know Scola is 45 (actually he'll be 28 at the end of the month), but he's still a rookie and was incredibly vital to the Rockets' continued surge after Yao went down. Horford make the Hawks look smart and got them into the playoffs, two things very few people expect anymore. Young was better than Durant and Thornton at being of value to his ballclub.

Coach of the Year

Winner: Rick Adelman

Runner Up: Eddie Jordan

Honorable Mention: Phil Jackson, Byron Scott, Mo Cheeks, Stan Van Gundy, Doc Rivers

Comment: The second-toughest category behind MVP. Both Adelman and Jordan lost their top two players for extended stretches of the season--and the person considered their best player for at least 25 games--and still finished better than expected at the beginning of the year. Adelman gets the nod because it was his first season in Houston and players had to adjust to a totally different offensive scheme. The five honorable mentions are all worthy winners in another year. Dishonorable mention goes to Isiah Thomas and George Karl.

Most Valuable Player

Winner: Kevin Garnett

Runner Up: Kobe Bryant

Honorable Mention: Chris Paul, Deron Williams

Comment: Ask me tomorrow and I'll probably say Kobe. In fact, if it wasn't such a cop-out, I'd give co-MVPs to Kobe and KG. I won't feel badly if either one wins it. My bias is with Garnett, a player I covered on the beat for a dozen years, seeing the selflessness and the infectious effort everyone's raving about now on the East Coast, up close over and over again. By contrast, I'd long disdained Kobe's selfish mood swings and begrudged him the three rings he never truly appreciated as he vied for alpha status with Shaq.

But Garnett has more than history to recommend him. The unprecedented improvement--and for those who justifiably cite Ray Allen, remember the squad also lost a burgeoning Al Jefferson--the establishment of a defensive identity when there wasn't one there previously. And as for the pure numbers, KG slight decline in points and rebounds is almost totally a function of him wisely being rested back from 40 to 35 mpg to be ready for the postseason. The guy hasn't lost anything, and has rediscovered his passion for defense, the one element of his game that had begun to leave his lifeforce the past two years in Minnesota.

The case for Kobe? The second-best player on his team, Pau Gasol, played only 27 games with him. The third best, Andrew Bynum, played only 35. More often than not, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, Vlad Rad and Luke Walton provided the bulk of his supporting cast. Could KG have taken that crew to the best record in the West? This was the year Kobe grew up on the court. It was his best season in a spectacular career, and, unlike Garnett, he's never won MVP. There is no wrong choice here.

I don't think New Orleans and Utah would even be in the playoffs without Paul and Williams, and Paul's gaudy numbers plus his team's leap forward would get him the nod in most years. But this is a special year. And with that, we'll move on to the playoff picks...

Washington (5) vs. Cleveland (4)

Pivotal points: Can Gilbert Arenas be content with being a sporadic microwave and defer alpha status to Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison? Will Jamison's outside shooting take Ben Wallace out of the low block (or out of the game)? Is LeBron's back ailment enough to prevent him from being LeBron?

My guesses: Arenas can't control himself, and both wins and loses at least one game for the Wiz. Aside from LeBron's penetration, the Cavs will have difficulty scoring inside, making Brendan Haywood and Jamison's contribution on the defensive boards critical to the series (and Joe Smith an intriguing X factor). Goaded by DeShawn Stevenson calling him overrated (how stupid is that?) and his own sense of pride, LeBron rises to the occasion as best he can. It's probably foolhardy to bet against the league's best player in a first-round playoff series, but with all the Wizards' injury woes, they still finished a mere two games behind the Cavs this season, and have the additional motivation of losing out twice in this budding rivalry.

My pick: If it goes seven games, I don't think I'd align myself against LeBron at home. But I don't think it is going seven.  Washington in 6. 

Phoenix (6) vs. San Antonio (3)

Pivotal points: As always in big games involving Shaq, how will the refs call plays in the paint? If Duncan or Stoudamire get in early foul trouble, the other team benefits greatly. A first-round series vs. physical San Antonio favors Nash, who has previously played them further into the postseason after he's suffered some wear and tear. The narrow gap between sixth men Ginobili and Barbosa widened considerably this year. Finally, Kurt Thomas has changed teams.

My guesses: There hasn't been a more unstoppable player in the NBA the past two months (more than Kobe or LeBron) than Amare Stoudamire. The Spurs consistently have beaten the Suns because of their nonpareil perimeter D, but with Shaq as a force and Amare freed up to roam, their inside-outside game is formidable. There has never been a more competitive first-round series, as these are two superb teams who both know their window is closing fast. Bottom line, I've watched Pops and Fundamental and more recently Manu and Parker come up big when it matters for so long, that I'll have to see the stake go through their heart before I assume they're dead.

My pick: San Antonio in 7.

Dallas (7) vs. New Orleans (2)

Pivotal points: The Hornets seem to be the longer and quicker team, Dallas obviously the more experienced in the postseason. Can the Mavs' outside shooters--especially Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse, but also Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd--score often enough to test the young New Orleans players under playoff pressure? Will Peja continue to choke in big games? And will the Mavs' first-round loss a year ago be a plus or minus in their mental makeup?

My guesses: I don't understand the infatuation with the Mavs on the part of some pundits. Dallas has no answer for Tyson Chandler at either end of the court. Chris Paul is a nightmarish matchup for an aging Kidd. Meanwhile, David West is a pretty good matchup for the Mavs' go-to guy, Nowitzki. Yeah, Dallas has a lot more playoff experience--chokes to Miami in the finals and Golden State. If Terry and Stack are "on fire"  from the perimeter they might be able to filch a game or two. But there's no question who is the better team here.

My pick: New Orleans in 5.

Utah (4) vs. Houston (5)

Pivotal points: With Rafer Alston on the shelf for the first two games, can Bobby Jackson deter Deron Williams and run the offense without looking for his own shot too much? Can Houston wear down Carlos Boozer? Which decline is more costly and less likely to be righted, Kirilenko's overall game or McGrady's shot selection and accuracy? Who wins the battle or two very good benches?

My guesses: As much as Jackson can body up D-Ron, he has never been a competent floor general and could find himself in foul trouble to boot, making rook Aaron Brooks a key participant in the first few games. Losing Yao doesn't hurt the Rockets in this series: Scola, Landry, Hayes and even Battier in certain instances are better options on Okur and Boozer than the Yao, and Mutombo can be rotated in as a change of pace in the low block. The math is pretty simple: Utah doesn't lose at home and the injury to Alston gives the Jazz a great chance to steal at least one of the first two games on the road. All that said, I love what Rick Adelman has done with this team and consider them the most underrated ballclub in the playoffs.

My pick: It could be Utah in 5 or 6 if they get the early jump. But my gut tells me Houston in 7.

First of all, I apologize for the inactivity vis a vis On The Ball, and once again offer my kudos to my dedicated commenters who are proving perfectly capable of continuing intelligent discussion without me. That said, I owe readers a little heads up about how I'll be handling postseason posts.

I went to the Wolves press conference with McHale yesterday morning and will offer up my thoughts on the state of the team moving forward--but probably not until Monday. I just needed to decompress from the season a bit; plus there were three interesting music gigs in the Twin Cities, concluding tonight with Eric Bibb at the Dakota, that I felt like writing about over at my music blog, Hear Hear.

Sometime this evening or night, I'll post my picks for various NBA awards--I still haven't made up my mind on MVP and Coach of the Year, two unbelievably competitive races--and do previews and picks for the playoff series that begin on Saturday. On Saturday night I'll do my previews and picks for the playoff series that begin on Sunday. And on Monday I'll have my Wolves' season recap and review.

Somewhere in the midst of all of that, I also want to take up commenter AK's suggestion that we coordinate playoff series to view and dissect. In fairness to folks who don't have cable, I want to say that I'll definitely talk about and provide a forum for the network games this weekend, which are San Antonio and Phoenix on Saturday afternoon and Denver and the Lakers on Sunday afternoon. The other series I know I am catching this weekend are Houston and Utah on Saturday night and Boston and Atlanta on Sunday night. I'm still not clear how I'm going to set up shop for this playoff thread, at least initially, as you notice that I've also set myself up with quite a bit of writing otherwise over the weekend. But rest assured that as the field winnows and the pivotal games and series become more apparent, there will be a place here for both me and my reader/commenters to chime in and kick stuff around.

Meanwhile, I notice that there are some discussions continuing apace beneath my past On the Ball submission. Feel free to extend it there or transfer it over to this one. And know that, for better or worse, you'll be reading quite a bit more of my hoops reactions in the days ahead.

Thanks for your patience and your participation.