It occurs to me that the best way to recap the first three games of the Spurs-Lakers series is to point out all the places I was wrong. There are plenty of examples so let’s get to it.
* A high scoring series
When I looked over the various matchups between San Antonio and LA, I foresaw a lot of offense. But last night’s combined 187 points has been the most prolific game of the three. Part of this is because the series has been played at a pace more to SA’s liking, which spells trouble for their current one-game deficit. Part of it is because both teams are missing more open looks than is customary (and it is different people different nights, although Odom and Parker have not been able to exploit what I perceived as their mismatches), a likely sign of fatigue and/or pressure. But the bulk of it is simply great defense, particularly by the Lakers in their Game Two blowout. I have never seen Parker’s penetration stymied so effectively, not only by Derek Fisher but by the bigs doubling and switching up coverages on the pick and roll.
* A loooong series for Derek Fisher
Fisher has not shone in Games One and Three, but he also hasn’t been toasted by Parker the way I thought it would happen. Again, the Lakers’ superb team D had a lot to do with that in Game Two, but Fisher’s foot speed has been better than I expected, and the vast improvement by Jordan Farmar, who has found his confidence again, is getting him more rest. If he and Farmar can cut the distance in point guard production between the two teams, the Lakers are in good shape.
* Kobe would toast Bowen and Udoka equally
Maybe it is just a prejudice against gritty, slow-footed vets, because I also underestimated Bruce Bowen’s value in this series, and overestimated how much Udoka could spell him. Doug Collins pointed out last night that Kobe salivates over getting Udoka as his matchup, and even as he spoke, Pops was getting Bowen up to guard the MVP. I think Bowen slipped a bit on defense during the regular season, and wasn’t that effective in either of the first two rounds. But his ability to slow Kobe down a titch and make him work for points and dimes has given San Antonio hope. Given Kobe’s maturity as a distributor, it is crucial that the double teams aren’t automatic and predictable. Bowen’s inexorable hustle has made that possible–and he’s even hit a few of those patented corner treys of his.
* The Spurs would trade off nights from Ginobili for off nights from Odom
Wrong again. Ginobili’s value to his team was borne out again last night–his catalytic role on the Spurs is vastly greater than Odom’s versatile and important, but not crucial, contributions to the Lakers, where he remains a distinct third option. That said, if Odom does start to get his act together, San Antonio is in trouble. What is frustrating for him is that he’s missing makeable shots.
But back to Ginobili for a minute. First of all, the guy comes up big at the most important moments, giving San Antonio someone akin to a poor man’s Kobe. That’s huge. The fact that neither Detroit nor Boston boasts an equivalent presence (do you still believe Billups is Mr. Big Shot? and who on the Celtics side–Paul Pierce?) is one of many reasons why the trophy will likely be held aloft by a Western Conference team in about two weeks.
But if you are looking for a reason why the Spurs are still in this series–and are a 18-minute collapse away from being up 2-1, check out how well Tim Duncan and the trio of Oberto-Thomas-Horry have defended Pau Gasol and Odom. Now Odom’s problems are becoming well documented–he’s getting ripped by most of the Laker media, with some justification. After shooting well over 50% in the first two rounds, he’s shot 12-33 in the three games thus far, or barely over 36%, this despite the fact that the Spurs don’t have a natural counter for his size and quickness. But Gasol’s underachievement has arguably been just as profound. He also was much better than 50% for the playoffs coming into the Spurs series, and the dip to 46.5% (20-43 FG) is exacerbated by the facts that his shot selection has been generally solid–he’s missing makeable attempts–and that he has only gotten to the free throw line 5 times in the three games, after shooting 59 FTA in the previous 10 playoff games. He’s also grabbing two fewer rebounds per game, his assists rate has been cut in half, and his defense on Duncan has been, as expected, inconsistent. These dips bear watching as Gasol continues much deeper into the postseason than he has ever been before.
Before we look at the Spurs side of the ledger, I want to point out something about Jordan Farmar and Sashia Vujacic, who provided such a great lift off the bench in Games One and Two, but much less so last night: They’ve both been gunning fools. Give Farmar credit for being LA’s third-leading scorer (10.7 ppg) in this series despite averaging only 20.7 mpg, a testament to his gaudy 11-21 FG shooting. But Farmar, the backup point guard, has zero assists in 62 minutes. Even on a team where Kobe Bryant justifiably hogs the ball and which features the triangle offense that reduces the importance of a point guard, you’d think Farmar would have dropped at least one dime. Maybe there’s a connection between the low shooting percentages of Gasol and Odom and the jack-it-up philosophy of Farmar and Vujacic, who rank 8th and 7th, respectively, in assists-per-minutes played among the nine Lakers who logged double digit minutes of court time thus far in the series (Vlad Rad is last).
By contrast, little used Brent Barry came off the bench last night and delivered four assists in 21 and a half minutes without a turnover, chipped in a pair of treys and was plus +11. Properly derided for his shooting, Horry’s defense on Odom and tenacity in the paint got him plus +11 in 18 minutes. Add to the bigness of the Big 3–Ginobili had 30 and sparked the resurgence with a pair of first quarter treys; Duncan pulled a 20-20 game (actually 22-21) and is averaging more than 18 board per game in the series, and Parker was a game-best plus +26–and these savvy veteran role players have an acute appreciation of what is required to bag a ring. The Lakers are without question the more talented of the two teams, especially in the depth of their talent. But with the obvious exception of Kobe, and Fisher, they don’t know what it takes to win this deep into the postseason.
Specifically, they didn’t realize Pops would emphasize nothing but offense–an unprecedented move for the coach–in the practice between Games Two and Three, to counter the sliding traps and pick-and-roll D that Phil Jackson had instituted so effectively. And they didn’t appreciate how many times San Antonio has been counted out in the past few years, only to come up big when it counts. It will really count in Game Four tomorrow night. Will Kobe decide to seize the game with a 30-shot effort, something his miraculous 4th quarter stint in Game Three indicates might be a way to vanquish the Spurs in San Antonio, or will he continue distributing and hope his backcourt mates follow his lead and that his front line finally comes to play in the paint? I’m guessing a little of both, and that the wild cards for the two ballclubs–Ginobili and Odom–will determine the winner.
But, as we noted at the outset, I’ve been wrong before.
Tomorrow, a look at the Celts-Pistons after four games.
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