Author: Britt Robson

Okay folks, it really couldn’t have turned out much worse for the Timberwolves in the lottery tonight. True, the Wolves got the #7 choice, which was their mathematical likelihood in terms of record and ping-pong balls. But more importantly, the two top studs in the draft, Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, will be playing for teams in the Wolves’ Northwest Division, which will likely become the toughest in basketball over the next two or three years. Denver and Utah are both quality teams with a good mixture of youth and experience, and talent such as Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Carlos Boozer, Nene and Andrei Kirilenko. Portland, with the top pick and the current rookie of the year in Brandon Roy, and Seattle, with Ray Allen and the second pick, now leapfrog ahead of Minnesota in terms of overall potential.

Just to rub it in: Portland’s 5.3% chance of landing the top pick was no better or worse than Minnesota’s.

What’s your take? Any chances of trading for one of Portland’s big men? Who should the Wolves grab with #7? And what’s your take on this latest bit of discouraging news?

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Detroit Pistons (1)

If I had any guts, I’d call the Cavs in 6 or 7. That is what my gut tells me–the same gut that said the Bulls would need no more than 5 or 6 games to knock off these same Pistons. Obviously, there is something about Detroit–the overwhelming consensual favorite to reach the NBA Finals–that I disrespect. Naturally I’ve thought about it a fair bit during the Bulls series–having your analysis turned into foolishness will do that–and I think it has to do with believing the Pistons have bought into Flip Saunders’ multi-pass, high jumper, low turnover, low free throw offense. It is a marvelous thing to behold, and the Pistons play it superbly. But missed shots are nearly as injurious as turnovers, and sometimes those jumpers won’t fall. If and when that happens, do the Pistons have enough resourcefulness via their defense and their one-on-one capabilities to gut it out? And if not, do the Cavs have sufficient offensive firepower to make them pay?

There are two ways to look at the Bulls series. One, the Pistons hauled off and belted Chicago in the mouth twice with a pair of absolutely sublime efforts at both ends of the court. Having gone up 2-0, they had no respect left, especially when they just flipped a switch in the second half of Game Three and won going away, on the road. The next two tilts were the product of overconfidence and the Bulls playing for pride under a feisty coach.

Another way to look at it is that the youthful Bulls came out both a little nervous and a tad overconfident after sweeping Miami. Detroit was more experienced and better prepared and just undressed Chicago, twice. The Bulls team that ran and shot so well all season and then steamrolled Miami thus never really found their footing in this series until it was too late. When Chicago did settle into what was previously a normal groove, they proved capable of hanging with Detroit and extending them to the limit if not winning outright.

I subscribe to the second theory–that the real Bulls never showed up, and that guys like Nocioni and Ben Gordon were exposed mentally as well as physically. But if the Pistons dismantle the Cavs the way they did Chicago, even a stubborn skeptic like me has to cop to their worthiness to battle San Antonio (and lose, but that’s another story).

This will be a good test for Detroit because Cleveland presents a different challenge than did the Bulls. I thought Chicago would simply be too quick for Detroit up and down the court. That may have been accurate, had we seen the regular 2006-07 Bulls. But what isn’t true is that Detroit lacked Chicago’s bench. Jason Maxiell and Lindsay Hunter and of course Antonio McDyess, who is a bench player the way Ginobili is a bench player, all had very good games versus the Bulls. But what they don’t do is shoot lights out. The starters, especially Hamilton-Billup-Prince, are the key to Saunders’ ball movement, jump-shooting game, because when any of those three are open, you expect the ball to go through the net. The other key is that Saunders’ offense divides up shots among different players, and having that trio all be reliable is a huge boon to the system. And no, I’m not forgetting ‘Sheed, who is less midrange and more paint-or-trey and thus the flexible one of the quartet that scores.

So, why are the Cavs a challenging matchup? Because ever since Pavlovic was inserted into the starting lineup, Cleveland can defend the midrange jumper better than anyone this side of San Antonio. Their quickness is less about running up and down 94 feet, like the Bulls, and more lateral and quick-bursting while defending in the half-court. And that kind of quickness and length may be more troubling to Detroit.

Two other factors make the Cavs an intriguing opponent for the Pistons. The first, of course, is LeBron, who is second only to Kobe Bryant is being a guy to just explode seven different ways and destroy a team (occasionally his own). LeBron was if anything too share-oriented with his teammates against New Jersey, and will probably need to do less driving and kicking and more penetrating against the Pistons. But the greater point is, this is really the litmus test for Cleveland, who have played a couple of mediocre opponents thus far and really have no identity with even loyal NBA fans outside of northern Ohio. This is where LeBron can make his statement, in other words, after a fitful season that saw him mail it in for much of the early months, and only occasionally turn it on in the past six to eight weeks. I don’t think he should be a ball hog, and if he wants to devote more energy to clamping down Detroit’s shooters beside Larry Hughes and Pavlovic, that makes sense. But he has to make a superstar’s impact on some level if the Cavs are to pull the upset.

The second intriguing factor is Z Ilgauskas. Detroit really has no good matchup for him, but then again neither did Washington and New Jersey, and Z was hardly the force he could and should have been in those rounds. He shot a very mediocre 48 percent and got just 11 points and 9 rebounds in 33 minutes against the Nets. More disturbing, he shot fewer field goals than anyone in the starting lineup, including Pavlovic; half as many FGA as Hughes, and ten fewer shots per game than LeBron. He also averaged only 4 free throws per game, and was outrebounded for the series by teammate Drew Gooden. For the Cavs to topple Detroit, unless LeBron pulls a Kobe, Z must give them about 18 and 12, and Mike Brown is crazy if he doesn’t explore ways of making it happen. No more shrinking violet in the paint. The Pistons are vulnerable in precious few places, and getting it to the big man when the superstar is double and triple teamed in one way for that to happen.

Detroit has been very successful at running the 3-2 matchup zone that Saunders perfected in Minnesota. It was by far his best defensive allignment with the Wolves, but it also taxed the hell out of KG, the man at the top of the key in what occasionally was a 1-2-2 instead of a 3-2. The Pistons are deadly with it because Tayshaun Prince is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, an indefatigable defender with a seven-foot wingspan who just happens to also be one of their best clutch shooters (better than Billups and Rip, in my book). If Detroit’s zone is clicking, expect Lebron to try and take over by himself more often, and for either many points or many turnovers to ensue. James vs. The Zone is one of the great subplots.

The question becomes, who guards Hamilton? Pavlovic had a marvelous series against Vince Carter and is a little too balky to guard Billups. LeBron and Prince will match up on each other. But Pavlovic is going to discover that stopping Rip Hamilton in the playoffs is tougher than stopping Vince Carter, for reasons of mental toughness and a better supporting cast, for starters. Hughes vs. Billups is a great matchup, as Hughes is a gambler and Billups likes to make gamblers pay. Again, if Cleveland can force nearly as many turnovers as they commit, this will be a tight series. And the turnovers, if they happen, will be on the perimeter.

For the Bulls series, I predicted that Rasheed Wallace wouldn’t be able to handle the banging of PJ Brown and the gritty annoyance of Nocioni. But neither PJ nor Nocioni was able to do too much and part of the credit goes to ‘Sheed (the rest to Saunders’ system). Also, ‘Sheed kept his head. That said, if I was entering a pool on most likely combatants for a playoffs setto, ‘Sheed and Gooden would come in just a hair behind Harpring and Bowen as my pick to duke it out.

This will be a tough, physical series–duh, it’s the conference finals, and the unphysical teams have gone home. But again, my gut tells me that Detroit is the least physical of the four remaining squads. Will that matter in this round?

Hamilton, Prince and Billups are, in the end, very tough to pick against when you are staying inside the Eastern Conference. Of the variables Cleveland needs, I think LeBron will explode once or twice, that Hughes will embarrass Billups once or twice, and that Z might even get off once or twice. Cleveland will even win twice or thrice as a result. The gut says the Cavs, the head overrules and chooses Detroit in 6 or 7.

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Utah Jazz (5)

This will be a war, very physical, but don’t for a moment believe it will be boring. Neither the Spurs nor the Jazz are a plodding team, both feature creatively intelligent big men and freakishly athletic ‘tweeners. The war will be in two places: on penetration and pick-and-rolls in the half-court, where the Spurs’ defense doesn’t give an inch and the Spurs penetrators are especially fearless; and under the boards, where the Jazz battle for position and gang-bang on the glass better than any NBA team. But there was also be some gorgeous ballet, both in transition and in the synergistic execution displayed by teams doing the bidding of the league’s two most demanding coaches, Gregg Popovich and Jerry Sloan. Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his Hall of Fame career.

Let’s get to the keys, beginning with Andrei Kirilenko’s ability to guard Manu Ginobili. Yes, Tim Duncan killed the Suns in the second round, but that was expected. How well the Spurs played when Duncan sat and the keys to the offense were flipped to Manu was the more stealthy dagger. Ginobili possesses one of the most cherished virtues in sports, the ability to elevate his game in pressure situations. Those who claim players don’t get better under pressure so much as maintain their composure and not get worse have never watched Ginobili for an extended period of time. This is a player who lives for the biggest stage, and now has the confidence of knowing he has consistently delivered. His career, internationally and in the NBA, lacks the extreme drama of Big Shot Rob Horry’s game-winning jumpers, but has actually been more influential to his team’s winning–the window on his crunchtime prowess extends long before the last five seconds of play. The Spurs don’t win a ring in 2005 without him, and I don’t think they beat the Suns this postseason either.

But assuming Sloan is smart enough to devote his best perimeter defender to stopping Ginobili, Manu will have his hands full with Kirilenko, who snuffed Stephen Jackson pretty thoroughly in the Golden State series. What’s easy to forget about Ginobili is that he’s 6-6, larger than most guys who try to contain him on the perimeter. He is also physically very wiry, without fear, and a superb physical improviser, all of which make him one of the premiere penetrators in the game. Watch Ginobili compared to Parker, a pretty fair penetrator in his own right. But watch how vertical Parker is; it is all speed, and his finishes are almost always banks off the glass right at the baseline. Ginobili is a wender, continually feinting, crossover dribbling, cutting across the lane, and varying his approach from pullback to clear his shot to barge into his opponent to draw the foul. You don’t know if the conclusion will be a banker, a finger-roll, a teardrop, or a melodramatic crashing into the photographers along the baseline as he gets “crushed” goading the foul. How do you defend that? How about with a lightning-quick, 6-9 gazelle with a seven-footer’s wingspan who prides himself on defense, loves to block shots and has a pretty fair sense of timing and intuitive intelligence? That’s Kirilenko. If he can stay out of foul trouble (and Ginobili is a master at drawing them) and make the Spurs pay for sitting Duncan–preventing the Big Fundamental from regenerating after taking the multi-faceted pounding he’ll get in constant small doses that are far more taxing than anything he received versus Denver or Phoenix–than the Jazz have a shot.

Two other keys for Utah to make this competitive: Their two clutch outside shooters, Mehmet Okur and Derek Fisher, have to come through. I’m guessing that when it matters, Horry will be on Okur and Tony Parker will be guarding Fisher. Both are underrated defenders, but both can be beaten. Horry is a step slow and undersized in the paint, so if Okur can have some success down low and then move outside, he could create problems. Parker used to be a real liability on D, but his play on Allen Iverson was a bit of a revelation. I’m guessing Bruce Bowen guards Deron Williams though, putting Parker on Fisher, who will pick and choose his spots better than Iverson, lulling Parker, who is prone to mental lapses on D more than any other Spur starter, into freeing him up for crucial treys. If Fisher and/or Okur can get off from outside, once again the Jazz have a shot.

And why, otherwise, do they have no shot? Well, one reason is because
Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his career. I mean, 9 blocks in Game Six the other night, not to mention all the defensive rotations and quality rebounds. Duncan had David Robinson beside him in the paint for his first two rings, and the third one owed as much to his caped crusaders in the backcourt, Parker and Ginobili, as he hobbled around at about 80 percent. The Duncan we are seeing now may be a step slower, but he is tougher and wiser, and playing like the classic centers of yore, back in the days of Wilt and Russell and Nate Thurmond and Wes Unseld. He’s got a little of all those guys in him now. In fact it is absurd that Amare Stoudamire was an All-NBA center this season when it was obvious to anyone watching that Duncan is really a center instead of a power forward, and the best center in the game at that.

Remember when most of Duncan’s points came on those 15-footers off the glass? Now, TD is much more of a back-to-the-basket guy, still using the glass but mostly as a culmination of the spin moves. He can still face up and then deliver facials, as Kurt Thomas discovered in the third quarter of Game Five, the unfortunate suspension game. But more often than not now, Duncan is the low post way-station and Oberto or Elson is a bit part in the whole drama.

It is hard not to admire Carlos Boozer’s emergence this season, and his ability to score over Yao was the determining factor in Utah’s first round victory. But Duncan is a very tough matchup for Boozer, who will also see some of Oberto, and unless he gets some calls from the refs and gets Duncan in foul trouble, I don’t foresee him being a positive factor for the Jazz.

That leaves us with Bowen and Deron Williams. I count myself as one of Bill Simmons’ biggest fans, but the “Sports Guy”‘s calling out Bowen as a manifestly dirtier player than other NBA enforcers was in my opinion itself a cheap shot. Simmons made a big deal out of Bowen being a nonentity in the league before deciding he had to do whatever it takes to stay in the league. Hmmm, sounds a lot like the Suns Raja Bell to me. In fact there are a lot of guys like that in the NBA, although most don’t play with the ferocity of a Bowen or a Bell. Are both of them punishing, physical defenders? Yup. Dirty players? Yeah, I guess sometimes, if you want to talk about needing to get in guys’ heads with niggling little cheap shots and bullshit ploys. And for Bowen it certainly worked with Steve Nash, the normally kind and unflappable competitor who in the last two games was hollering about being fouled by Bowen when most of the time he wasn’t. Was Bowen’s knee to Nash’s groin a cheap shot? Yup. Was Simmons right to compare it to Amare and Diaw getting suspended to prove the rule about leaving the bench is bullshit? Yes, he was. But to single out Bowen as being somehow much dirtier and worse than others–anybody remember Sam Mitchell playing D for the Wolves? How about John Stockton, Mr. Clutch and Grab, who wasn’t above raising his knee when someone was coming into his pick?–was off base.

One thing for sure, you won’t hear Jerry Sloan bitching about Bowen (un less he’s getting desperate or knows it might work in psychological warfare), because that is exactly the way Sloan played, and his has molded the Jazz in that image. You want t6 watch a physical, borderline dirty player, check out Matt Harpring, who, guaranteed, will receive at least one flagrant foul during this series.

So, what does it all add up to? I can pretty much repeat what I said at the end of my Suns-Spurs preview. (The Suns are a better team than the Jazz, but don’t match up quite as well with the Spurs so it evens out.) If the Jazz play their absolute A game it will be a hell of a series that could go 7 games and swing either way, with a slight advantage to the Spurs. But I am guessing that the Spurs will force the Jazz into their A- game and thus the series will result in San Antonio taking it in 5 or 6 games.

If there is one team among the NBA’s likely four semifinalists that is flying beneath the radar, it is the Cleveland Cavaliers. That the Cavs are unbeaten is six playoff games thus far is undercut by the reality that they have yet to face even a mediocre low-post presence among Washington and New Jersey.

Is Cleveland playing stellar defense or is the competition just that bad? Obviously both. Ever since Cavs coach Mike Brown inserted Aleksander Pavlovich into the starting lineup alongside Larry Hughes, the team is 28-7. Pavlovich, Hughes and LeBron James are all lanky and athletic, an ideal trio for perimeter rotations. Underneath, Cleveland has a bona fide 7-footer in Z Ilgauskas and a banger with a bit of a nasty streak in Drew Gooden. In other words, they sport the best blend of ingredients for disrupting opposing offenses. For the playoffs they are allowing just .421 FG% and less than 90 points per game.

But Washington without Arenas and Butler may have been the worst playoff team in a decade and for a playoff-tested, supposedly veteran team, New Jersey certainly is playing stupidly. Riddle me this: Why does the team with the most poised point guard in the East, Jason Kidd, decide twice in a row that the best way to beat the Cavs on the road in crunchtime is simply to dump the ball off to Vince Carter, one of the worst on-court “leaders” this side of Antoine Walker?

On the Nets website, the lead graphic is a picture of LeBron and Vinsanity in face to face profile like the classic boxing posters. Promoting this kind of idiotic comepetitive equivalence is why the Nets deserve to get swept this series. Everyone knew they’d be roasted on the boards, and they have been. But in the first two games, they’ve also been tied with less than 10 minutes to go in the game, only to decide that the way to counter Cleveland letting LeBron take over their offense is to let Carter hog the ball. Bad, bad idea. Pavlovic has done a nice job on Carter, who despite shooting 35 percent has more than twice as many shots, 49, in two games, than anyone on his team–and four more than LeBron! Meanwhile, a guy by the name of Richard Jefferson is canning 61 percent of his field goals and might be the beneficiary of some nifty Kidd dishes if someone, maybe clueless Nets coach Lawrence Frank, could pry the ball out of the hands of Carter, who just happens to be playing for a new contract.

As for the other NBA playoff series, my pick of the Bulls in 5 or 6, was, eh, just a little off thus far. Mucho credit to the Pistons, who have put together two displays of absolutely superlative team basketball. I forget exactly how good shooting guard Rip Hamilton is, specifically what a tough matchup he is, being 6-7, very quick, crafty at cutting around picks and with a deadly accurate, rapid-fire release. The key to the series in my estimation has been Scott Skiles barely bothering to watch Ben Gordon get embarrassed trying to guard Hamilton, throwing his best perimeter guy, Kirk Hinrich, on him instead. But this has backfired because Hamilton is too quick and crafty and, let’s face it, mentally tough for even Hinrich to have had much effect on him thus far; meanwhile Chauncey Billups is treating Gordon as his little play-toy on their matchup. The blame falls on Gordon, who simply hasn’t invested the time and energy commitment necessary to become a quality defender, a fact the Bulls have been able to camouflage until running into a team with three quality scorer-passers at the 1, 2 and 3. If I’m Skiles, I put Hinrich on Billups and try to nip Detroit’s offense in the bud. If Gordon is getting abused early and not exerting payback at the other end with a barrage of buckets, I’d yank him and let Sefolosha get the burn.

I’d also start small with Nocioni at the 4 instead of PJ Brown, and when Flip Saunders subs in Jason Maxiell, match him up with PJ with the instructions to get very physical. That Maxiell has been able to physically intimidate the Bulls during his stints on the court has been the most disappointing aspect of this entire series. And yes, I know Nocioni has also been a pathetic bundle of nerves is games one and two, and am not entirely sure any of this will deter Detroit rolling in 4 or 5. It just would be less aggravating for Bulls gans if their team decided to show up for a change rather than continue patting themselves on the back for their Miami sweep.

I fully expected the Suns to win last night, and turned the set off a little after halftime. I’m not sure Kurt Thomas for Boris Diaw is the magic potion Phoenix needs to overcome their nemesis. If both teams play up to their capability, the Spurs win, simply because they match up so well with the Suns. Phoenix just has to hold up their end of the bargain–Nash and Barbosa are dervishes, Bell the irritant, Stoudamire the grease in the paint and Marion as superglue–and hope that Finley and Horry miss their baseline treys, Duncan gets in early foul trouble and keeps clanging his free throws, and, most of all, that Gregg Popovich keeps thinking Jacque Vaughn has any value whatsoever.

Speaking of backup point guards, Dee Brown’s quality stint after Deron Williams picked up five fouls was the hands-down difference in Utah’s clutch victory over Golden State the other night. I was very impressed with the various combination double and triple teams that Don Nelson came up with to defend Carlos Boozer in the paint–it helps explain Dirk Nowitzki’s woes–but they still couldn’t keep Boozer off the offensive glass. Mehmet is money on big shots, the Kirilenko-Harpring combo is a dream duo at the 3, and Deron Williams is ready to take his place among the top 3 point guards in the league. Judging from the way Golden State played, they will need all of that to overcome the Warriors, especially given the home court advantage in Oakland.

With all this going on, who has time for baseball? Still, there are two things related to America’s erstwhile pasttime that deserve notice. One was Twins’ GM Terry Ryan’s statement in the paper today that landing or promoting another power hitter is not nearly as much of a priority for his homer-starved ballclub as ensuring outs with quality pitching and defense. The way you establish and maintain an identity for your franchise is by sticking to your philosophy under the most adversarial circumstances. Do the Twins have the absolute worst offense of any MLB club from the three positions played on the left of the diamond (3B, SS, LF)? Yup. Have they trotted out a batting order in May that lists 7 of the 9 players without a homer? Yup. Is Terry Ryan going to make major moves to address this situation? Nope. Not unless it will upgrade the defense and not hurt the pitching along the way.

Another Terry Ryan dictum is not to overpay, even for quality hurlers and fielders. Instead, he trusts his scouts to find gems in the rough, and his coaches to smooth them into value-added performers. The second-guessers and critics were all clearing their throats at the beginning of the season, eager to rip Ryan’s decision to go with three question marks in the starting rotation–Ramon Ortiz, Carlos Silva, and Sydney Ponson. Well, let’s see how that has turned out thus far. Ortiz is 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings pitched. Silva is 2-2 with a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings. Ponson is 2-4 with a dreadful 6.42 ERA in 33 and 2/3 innings. So far, Ryan is two out of three on his gambles, while Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey stay down in the minors not accumulating precious MLB service that would hasten their arbitration and free agency.

Now let’s look at what three of the Twins American League rivals have paid for pitching. The Red Sox shelled out $51 million for the right to pay Dice Matsuzaka $6.3 million this year. His record thus far: 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA in 38 innings. The Blue Jays are paying AJ Burnett $13.2 million this year and thus far he is 2-3 with a 5.09 ERA. And the Yankees are paying Roger Clemens $45 million in the hopes that he’ll be ready to throw a pitch that counts by June. Total cost of Ryan’s investment this year in Ortiz, Silva, and Ponson? $8.4 million.

All that said, the team with the best record in all of baseball is currently toiling less than 400 miles away, in Milwaukee. Ever since the Brewers finally rid themselves of the toxic, excreble Selig clan, they have been shrewdly investing in their future and it is finally beginning to pay off. In Prince Fielder (1B), Rickie Weeks (2b) and JJ Hardy (SS), the club has burgeoning stars at 3/4 of their infield positions and none of them are older than 24. When healthy, Ben Sheets is a legitimate ace, but right now he’d have to be rated the 4th best starter in the rotation, behind last year’s World Series star Jeff Suppan (5-2, 2.63), underrated, speed-switching lefty Chris Capuano (5-0, 2.31) and surprising fifth starter Claudio Vargas (3-0, 2.89). Throw in innings-eating ground ball pitcher David Bush (3-3, 5.73) and that’s a formidable rotation. Suppan, while long in the tooth, seems to be improving with age at 32. Vargas is 29, Sheets and Capuano 28, and Bush 27. Finally, the bullpen has fallen together beautifully, with Matt Wise and former closer Derrek Turnbow quality setup men, Carlos Villenuva a very good middle man, and closer Francisco Cordero unscored upon until his last appearance. The only flaw is that all are righties–veteran Brian Shouse is the lone southpaw in the pen.

Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino are a bad joke at third, the consequence of Corey Koskie’s constant nausea and scary loss of equilibrium after a concussion. And the outfield isn’t great, with the defensively challenged but power-hitting Bill Hall in center, and the very tall and promising Corey Hart and veteran Kevin Mench platooning with longtime Brewer and lefty-swinging Geoff Jenkins at the corner spots. (Although Tony Gwynn Jr. is destined to be more than just a good pinch-hitter by the end of the season.) Last but not least, the clutch-hitting Johnny Estrada was a masterful acquisition from Arizona as the everyday catcher. It’s a young, exciting team currently boasting a 23-10 record in the eminently winnable NL Central. If you’re interested in outdoor baseball, it’s worth a day’s drive to watch them.

With Houston and Utah still to be decided by a 7th game, my predictive powers on first-round series stands at 6-1, with the Golden State upset the lone blemish (and if you read what I wrote, I knew the Warriors would give the Mavs plenty of problems). In the East, I even had the number of games right, except for calling the Bulls in 5 or 6 over the Heat rather than the four game sweep.

But enough smug preening. Today’s genius is tomorrow’s fool, as I may well be about to demonstrate with the following picks.

Detroit (1) vs. Chicago (5)
Without slighting the epic Suns-Spurs series, this is the second-round matchup that intrigues me the most, in part because my take seems so much at odds with conventional wisdom. Specificially, how are the Bulls not the faster, deeper, and perhaps even more talented team here?

The marquee personal duel is between small forwards Tayshaun Prince and Luol Deng, and without question it’s a dandy. Prince ranks with Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier as the best on-ball defenders in the game today, while Deng is quickening into a star right before our eyes over the past year. At the other end, Prince may be the Pistons’ second-best offensive option to Chauncey Billups when the game is on the line, but will have difficulty with Deng, who is no slouch on D and is one of the few players with a comparably enormous wingspan.

It’s hard to imagine both Prince and Deng not coming up big–there’ll be no dominance either way here. By contrast, the most volatile matchup may be at the shooting guard spot, between Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon. Both are deadly jump-shooters, of course, but until recently you’d have to give Hamilton the decided edge, both because of the four-inch height differential (6-7 to 6-3) and for the fact that Rip has a nonstop motor and Gordon has generally been, shall we say, inconsistent with his effort on the defensive end. Like many of the Bulls, Gordon has stepped up all facets of his game in recent weeks, however, and is shooting with a sublime confidence that will spell danger for Detroit if Hamilton can’t dissuade it early. It is vital for Detroit’s prospects that Hamilton school Gordon at the other end, drawing fouls on either Gordon or Ben Wallace with his penetration while mixing in those mid-range jumpers Pistons coach Flip Saunders is so adept at choreographing.

Okay, once you get past Prince and Hamilton, where is the Pistons’ team speed? Billups is built like a tank and will occasionally be unstoppable when his long-range jumper is flowing, but Kirk Hinrich is a worthy foil, physical enough not to get manhandled the way Billups abuses most opposing points, and a smart, tenacious defender who will frustrate Billups’ ball distribution and force him into taking tough shots. At the other end, if Hinrich regains the shooting touch that abandoned him in the Heat series (one of the precious few things that went wrong for Chicago), then the Pistons are in trouble.

Move on to center and power forward. In the pivot, Ben Wallace and Chris Webber are an apples and oranges tandem; I’d call it a big edge for the Bulls. I understand how Webber has florished under Saunders, but unless Hamilton and Prince are gulping rebounds, the Pistons better be shooting lights out, because Webber isn’t grabbing many over Big Ben and PJ Brown will box out Rasheed Wallace all day long. I imagine Saunders’ plan will be to spot up Webber for midrange jumpers at the elbow and off pick and rolls, while positioning ‘Sheed for treys in the corner and outside the key–the Bulls will either have to bring Ben Wallace and PJ out to guard them, play zone, rotate frequently, or concede the open looks. I think Scott Skiles will have Wallace contest Webber because he’s quick enough to recover, and wait and see if ‘Sheed can hit long-range. If he does, Skiles can go to Nocioni on ‘Sheed, provided Nocioni’s plantar troubles are manageable.
With a fundamental horse like Brown and a persistent, clandestine-fouling gadfly like Nocioni on him, how long do you think it will be before ‘Sheed pops his cork? Throw in having to joust for boards with Big Ben, and ‘Sheed ability to play within himself becomes a problematic dilemma for Detroit.

But the biggest reason why I think the Bulls will win this series is their superior depth. Commentators like to talk about Detroit’s front-line squadron, but only Antonio McDyess is a quality reserve. Dale Davis is old and slow, a bad matchup versus the Bulls, and Saunders lacks confidence in Nazr Mohammad. It bears noting that aside from McDyess, no bench player got more than 50 minutes in the four games versus Orlando; why would Saunders willingly give his scrubs more burn against the Bulls?

Meanwhile, Chicago has the numbers to run and gun and wear down the older Piston starters. Not only are Deng, Hinrich, Nocioni, Gordon and Ben Wallace all comfortable in an up-and-down game, but bench guys Chris Duhon, Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas likewise thrive in uptempo settings. Even at the bottom of the Bulls bench you’ve got defensive specialist Adrian Griffin with a ton of playoff experience, and serviceable backup center Malik Allen.

Unless Hamilton decisively wins his matchup with Gordon, and/or ‘Sheed and Webber are converting bushels of open jumpers, I think the Bulls will steadily put down the throttle and wear the Pistons away. Chicago in 5 or 6.

Cleveland (2) vs. New Jersey (6)
The two first-round series I watched the least were Cleveland-Washington and Toronto-New Jersey, so the take here will be necessarily fuzzy. Nevertheless, this series seems to be a referendum on the intelligence of the Cavs generally and LeBron James in particular. About the only way the Nets win is if they entice the Cavs into a track meet that maximizes the talent of their glorious open court stars Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson. A super athlete like LeBron is going to be sorely tempted to take the bait; ditto Larry Hughes and perhaps even Drew Gooden and, off the bench, Donyell Marshall.

Here’s why that’s idiotic: Who on the Nets can guard Z Ilgauskas in paint? Who can box out Gooden? Jason Collins, Mikki Moore and Josh Boone is what New Jersey has in response. Z and Gooden both shot 60 percent or better from the field against Washington. Working patiently in half-court sets and getting feeds from LeBron and Hughes in half-court penetration, they should do it again against New Jersey. Meanwhile, Toronto’s point guards went crazy on offense against Kidd and company–why shouldn’t Hughes be able to do the same? And we haven’t even talked about Lebron getting his 35, even just working in the flow of the offense.

The Nets’ Jason Kidd averaged a triple-double in the six games against the Raptors, but you can expect both Larry Hughes and Aleksander Pavlovic to deter him more than TJ Ford and Jose Calderon, with Eric Snow needing to provide 10-12 minutes of quality coverage too. How many games New Jersey wins will depend on whether Carter goes crazy for a game or two, whether Cleveland stupidly decides to run with the Nets, and whether Z and Gooden collectively pull one of their occasional no-shows in the low block. Playing smart, the Cavs have the power to put this away in five. I’ll fudge it a little and say Cleveland in 5 or 6.

Phoenix (2) vs. San Antonio (3)
This is the heavyweight match, with the winner immediately stamped as the favorite to become the next NBA champion. What was most impressive about Phoenix’s 5-game blitz of the Lakers was its defensive prowess, and it’s true that in Raja Bell and Shawn Marion, the Suns have a pair of rugged, versatile components to throw at opposing offenses. As the epitome of the new uptempo small-ball style, they not only have the best floor general for it in Steve Nash, but have the most evolved defense when executing a full-bore transition game on offense.

But as Dallas discovered to their chagrin in the first round, even potentially great teams run into clubs who just happen to match up in a manner that exposes their weaknesses, and the Spurs certainly qualify as the Suns’ nemesis. For one thing, as they proved against Denver, San Antonio recovers to defend transition better than anyone in the league–not only do they scamper back four or five strong, but they’re already communicating how to defend switches and other proactive gambits to disrupt penetration, ball movement and open shots. Most clubs are in scramble mode versus Phoenix’s fast break; far more often than any other team, the Spurs are playing chess with it.

Secondly, the Spurs offense is vastly underrated, and reminiscent of those similarly underrated Houston Rockets championship teams of the 90s, the first club to fully utilize the inside-outside aspects of the three-point threat. To really make it go, you need a multi-talented big man capable of an almost automatic basket whenever he’s not double-teamed, yet with enough instinct and court vision to dish to cutters and three-point shooters–Houston had Hakeem, the Spurs have Duncan. You also need not just one or even two but a group of players who can nail the trey from various points on the floor. Houston had Cassell and Kenny Smith and Robert Horry, and the Spurs have Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili and Brent Barry and, not incidentally, Robert Horry. For the icing on the cake, San Antonio also has two of the best penetrators in the game in Tony Parker and Ginobili, the perfect combo to draw fouls and otherwise burn opponents who are flying around trying to defend both Duncan down low and all those bombadiers outside: Next thing they know, Parker and Ginobili and blowing past them. Raja Bell will be an enormous boon to preventing some of this, and Leandro Barbosa and Marion are both lightning quick, but it won’t be enough to handle Duncan down low and still choke off the outside bombs.

As good as San Antonio is, of course, Phoenix is far from helpless. Nash still can’t defend anyone worth a damn (Barbosa needs to play plenty on Parker), but when he’s in rhythm, it really is the greatest offensive show in basketball today. Nash is no Nowitzki–when it matters most, he’ll be a factor. Barbosa is the fastest player in the NBA. Stoudamire may be the fastest center. Marion is a superb finisher who plays four inches taller than his actual 6-7. Bell abets his shut-down D with a deadly three-point shot. The wild card? Boris Diaw, who has generously yielded much of last year’s mojo to Amare in the Suns’ grand scheme of things, but who needs to get himself more involved both in doubling Duncan and in burying the midrange jumper with the alacrity he showed in the 2006 playoffs.

If the Suns play their A game, this will be a phenomenal series, as good as last year’s Spurs-Mavs classic, that will go 7 games and could swing either way. I think San Antonio will compel Phoenix to play their A- game, with the result being the Spurs in 6.

The way you folks have been keeping the comments coming despite my inactivity (I’m still tied up on something and this will be a quick hit) has been superb and deserves many kudos. I’ll have something up on the second-round playoff games, hopefully before they start, but if I don’t, the bottom line is Bulls over Pistons, Spurs over Suns, Cavs over Nets and Jazz/Rockets over Warriors.

Some thoughts about last night…
The emergence of AK-47 and the ongoing disappearance of Yao makes the Houston-Utah Game 7 a real tossup despite the Rockets home court advantage. Folks who have read me for years know I’ve been a Yao disliker (you can’t really hate on the big galoot) from the start, mostly because he’s been so enthusiastically overrated. This year, Yao raised his game a notch and I began to buy into a piece of the hype. No more. When the largest player in the entire league can’t keep 6-9 (at most) Carlos Boozer from scoring in the paint, that is a glaring deficiency. Yao is 9 inches taller than Boozer. If you’re six feet, imagine defending against someone 5-3 in the paint. And the thing that supposedly represents Yao’s upside–that he makes his teammates better–certainly hasn’t shown itself in this series. It seems like T-Mac against the world out there, and while I give Chuck Hayes a pass as a glue guy who isn’t supposed to step up, Shane Battier, Yao and Rafer Alston, plus Juwan Howard, have a lot of explaining to do if Houston blows this series.

On the other side, Sloan’s troops have to be feeling pretty good about things. Their two underachievers, Mehmet and Kirilenko, both seem to have their groove back and Boozer is in another zone entirely (who matches up with him if the Jazz get to Golden State?). Deron Williams hasn’t even had the kind of breakout series I thought would be an absolute necessity for Utah to have a chance and it is still 3-3. The blame for that falls to Yao and he’s got one game to atone. Meanwhile, if the Rockets advance to GS, expect Houston to play 4 on 5 much of the time in transition.

On to Golden State dispatching the Mavs. I’d love to defend Dirk Nowitzki, if only in transferral for all the unfair things said about Garnett in previous playoffs, but the comparison is apples and oranges. Nowitzki did not help his team in any way shape or form last night: 8 points and 2 assists? As bad as the 2 makes look, the 13 attempts, especially alligned with the 2 dimes, shows that he simply was not a factor on the offensive end. And, ah, nobody on the Mavs was a factor on D.

How badly did the Mavs get whupped? Well, did you expect Golden State to own the boards, 52-38? How about a 67-win team facing elimination shooting 34 percent through the first three periods (the blown out 4th quarter, when they shot 8-16, doesn’t count)? Baron Davis was huge, no denying that, but does this team win without Stephen Jackson and Matt Barnes going off the way they did at least 2 or 3 times apiece in this series. And what about the job Biedrins did both cleaning the class and making himself available on cuts to the hoop?

I’ve said this before, but the biggest fallacy heading into this series, and the one we should have all realized more thoroughly, is that Dallas is not an up-and-down team. The fact that everybody said they were helped them believe it, and enabled Nelson and the Warriors to suck them into exactly the type of game that went against the strengths. They force-fed Golden State’s confidence and the collective explosion that ensued was as glorious as it will be fleeting. Seriously, does everyone expect Baron Davis to keep this up versus either the Rockets or the Jazz? Are we going to keep watching Matt Barnes go 16-11-7 while playing tenacious defense? Is Stephen Jackson going to keep his shit together being guarded by Kirilenko or Battier? Golden State should be praying for a Houston win this weekend, because they match up with the Rockets a lot better than they do the Jazz. How long can this magic carpet ride last? Hopefully enough for another series as fun as this last one, although that is asking for too much.

Back to Nowitzki: Isn’t it time to start naming the MVP after the playoffs are over? Seriously, who doesn’t realize that that how a player performs in the post-season is the biggest factor in determining their value? How silly is it to deny that variable in the voting? Sure, it will penalize fabulous players on non-playoff teams and provide enormous weight to playoff performance. Anyone have a problem with that?

It isn’t just Nowitzki who should be keeping his shades drawn for the next six months or so. Jason Terry was shown to be a second-rate third banana this series, and deserves a hefty fine for pile-driving Baron Davis in front of the Warriors bench in Game 5–tell me Stephen Jackson isn’t suspended for a month is he does the same thing. Devon Harris was the classic guy unsuccessfully trying to be a leader. Avery Johnson was outcoached the entire series. And Mark Cuban should have paid Don Nelson the 6 million dollars he owed him.