The Rake Magazine

Author: Britt Robson

  • The Three Pointer: Unprepared

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Kent Smith/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #77, Road Game #38: Minnesota 119, Charlotte 121

    Season Record: 19-58

    1. Plenty of Blame To Go Around

    Coach Randy Wittman thought the Minnesota Timberwolves came to play without passion or commitment tonight on the road against Charlotte, and he was spot-on. I wasn’t there to ask any of the players–and they wouldn’t tell me anyway–but I imagine they thought Wittman’s stubborn smallball strategy put them in a position to lose, if not outright embarrass themselves, and that might have had something to do with the half-assed effort. At the end of the night, the only mystery was how this wretched ballclub found itself with a chance to win the game on its last two possessions.

    Let’s deal with Wittman and smallball first. I’ve stopped writing about it because it’s arrogant and boring to be a johnny one-note when you have no influence on the outcome and the team has lost 39 more games than it has won–it’s not like there aren’t any other foibles to point out. But on a game like tonight, when the small lineup was immediately and definitively proven to be disastrous choice of matchups, it probably serves a purpose to grab some of the nearby factual ammo to highlight the stupidity, and then remind folks that it really doesn’t *have* to be this way.

    On Charlotte’s first two offensive possessions, center Nazr Mohammed fed an interior pass to power forward Emeka Okafor who shrugged off Ryan Gomes (if he noticed him at all) and laid the ball in. After the first time, color commentator Jim Petersen chuckled ruefully and said that Okafor would be a tough matchup for Gomes tonight. No kidding. Okafor is three inches taller than Gomes and much stronger in the upper body. He likes to score in the low block, mostly because he’s good at it. Meanwhile, on the other side of the lane, Mohammed was abusing Jefferson to the tune of 9 points in the first 5:40 of action.

    The first time Charlotte scored off a jump shot, they already led 21-12, having scored 21 points in the paint in a cool 6:21, which works out to about 80 points in the paint per 48. Petersen, who is paid to be diplomatic, began calling for Chris Richard to join Jefferson and Gomes on the front line. Instead, Wittman subbed out his entire front line, bringing in Richard, Craig Smith and Kirk Snyder for Jefferson, Gomes and Brewer with the score 27-12 and 3:26 to go in the first quarter.

    Randy Wittman is a hard guy to defend. Indeed, one could make the case that, even with personnel that has been mediocre to inferior in terms of overall talent, he has underachieved on that talent level pretty much every year he’s been the head coach in this league. I don’t know why he has continued to deploy Jefferson at center, but after 76 games and a couple weeks’ worth of steadily declining production, Jefferson finally said "uncle!" over the weekend and declared himself physically and mentally toasted. And how did he say he was going to prepare himself to play with more rigor next season? By losing weight. Now does that sound like a guy itching to remain in the pivot with the leviathans, or somebody sending a message that he’d like to go back to his natural power forward slot next year?

    Now, I didn’t say Wittman was an impossible guy to defend, and if I’m going to club him for the smallball, I owe him a little context. Jefferson *has* come out relatively weak and unwilling to mix it up the past three first quarters. He could barely dribble straight countenancing doing his patented spin moves and dipsy doodles against Shaq and a rejuvenated Amare the other night, and laid an egg in the first 12 minutes against Memphis and Darko, of all people. Tonight it was passive D on Mohammed and an inclination to settle for 15-foot jumpers.

    But Wittman hasn’t backed down. He called out Jefferson after the Memphis game and benched him alongside Gomes and Brewer. At halftime, Jefferson had gotten just four seconds more burn than Craig Smith, and less playing time than Gomes or Randy Foye. And for whatever reason Wittman did not play him for one second at power forward beside Chris Richard. Now do I think that’s stupid coaching? Yes, I do. But in Wittman’s defense it must be stated that Jefferson came out and destroyed Charlotte in the second half on offense, scoring 29 points on 12-13 FG and establishing himself as a horse that the Wolves’ rode to an amazing 68 points in the paint and 51.5% shooting for the game. The only shot he missed in the second half was a desperation jumper from the corner with .7 seconds left on the clock. It wasn’t like the team was running its offense through the guy who happened to register 40 points: 10 of his 18 field goals were unassisted, included 4 putbacks.

    So if one buys the argument that Al Jefferson is really the only sure thing this franchise has to work with, than an argument can be made that Wittman is tempering him with fire and ice and everything in between, wearing his ass out in the paint against bigger and stronger personnel. I don’t know if this is true, but nothing else makes sense. And to the extent that Jefferson is gathering himself up and rising as best he can to the occasion–and 40 points is a pretty good response–the drill sargeant bit is working.

    To continue along this track, Gomes is arguably the second best player currently on the roster and is also being fed a steady ration of pounding in the low block. Again, the only way this makes sense is to enhance Gomes’s toughness and durability over the long run. Personally, I’d argue he needs more time and seasoning at the small forward slot, learning how best to use his size and bulk out on the perimeter. Tonight, after Wittman did finally relent to the point of playing Smith at the power forward and Gomes at the 3 (prompting the Wolves’ comeback, not coincidentally), Gomes did some posting up of Jason Richardson, who, as a strong, athletic 6-6, probably isn’t used to defending it. Gomes customarily quietly had 24 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists tonight.

    Of course neither the coach nor the players operate in a vacuum. Wittman is justified in castigating his players for coming out flat and essentially losing the game in the first five minutes. But his smallball very obviously lessened the odds of his team’s success, something the players know better than anyone. And as he cracks the whip on a 19-win team 77 games into the season, is he surprised that some, if not most, of the players are rebelling is ways both passive and aggressive? On the other hand, while the players are justified if they note the coach blew the matchups and don’t appreciate the demonstrative scenes he makes on the sidelines in response to their mistakes, they aren’t coming out ready to deliver a solid night’s work either. Bottom line there is plenty of blame to go around.

    2. A Gold Star for Buckner, A Lump of Coal For McCants

    Both Petersen and Strib beat writer Jerry Zgoda appropriately lauded little-used reserve Greg Buckner for his catalytic performance (PiPress writer Rick Alonzo was less effusive but didn’t neglect Buck). After not playing for a month, Buckner climbed off the bench and delivered a game-best plus +17 (six better than second-best performer Raymond Felton of Charlotte) in 31:05. Even watching on television, you could see that Buckner was operating at a higher gear than every one of his teammates, a scathing indictment of their effort that almost certainly raised their caliber of commitment. Along with his example, Buckner provided a rare semblance of defense (Charlotte shot 62.3%, led by a combined 23-29 FG from Okafor, Mohammed and shooting guard Matt Carroll), and nailed 3-4 treys and 5-9 FG overall. Amid all the gushing, however, the cavaet must be inserted that Buckner fell prey to his primary weakness–trying to do too much once he gets on a bit of a roll. In a game decided by just one or two possessions, it would have been nice to see him deemphasize his offensive contribution in shooting and dribbling. Ditto Ryan Gomes, who let fly with a trey from the corner
    and another jumper that I’d really wished he’d pounded into Jefferson.

    Rashad McCants was among those not ready to play tonight. With the Wolves down 9 after just 6:21, Wittman threw him in for Foye and it took Shaddy all of 12 seconds to dribble around two opponents out on the perimeter and jack up a trey. After that, his only smudge on the box score was for two silly fouls, the first catching Carroll on the follow-through to his missed jumper, the second simply crowding his man too much in the corner. Wittman sat him after that and never brought him back–he played a scoreless 3:11 and was a minus -8 during that brief period. After the game, according to the beat writers (again, I wasn’t there), Wittman said he didn’t bring Shaddy back due to a lack of professionalism and was quoted as saying that McCants knows what he did. For his part, McCants left the locker room before the media could reach him.

    I’ve been accused of being both a McCants-lover and a McCants-hater and I plead guilty on both counts, and suspect Shaddy wouldn’t have it any other way. It is certainly possible McCants did something Wittman considers unprofessional, but it would frankly surprise me if it was heinous or malicious–until the situation gets explained further, there is no way to know.

    What I do know is that Wittman and McCants mix like oil and water, for obvious reasons of temperament and personality. I also know that this is a situation engendered by the front office. When Kevin McHale selected McCants in the draft three years ago, he openly acknowledged that Shaddy had some baggage but that the Wolves, unlike at least a handful of other teams, believed his talent was worth the gamble. Then a year and a half ago, the same McHale tabbed Wittman to replace Dwane Casey because he felt the team needed a little discipline and a kick in the pants. So you gamble on the volatile McCants and then you hire a taskmaster coach and everything is supposed to go well?

    I find it disappointing but not surprising that Wittman met with both Jefferson and Foye, but pointedly not McCants, the other day to talk about what is expected of them as future leaders of this team. In a comparison of Foye and McCants, I believe Foye is the more likely player to put together 6-8 solid seasons in the NBA, but that McCants has more star potential. True, he is a gamble, which is precisely why a team like the Wolves–who are looking at pretty formidable competition from Portland and Seattle in the next 5 years–need to cultivate him. I see the scowls and the ball-hogging and all the rest. I also know that McCants has produced as many important assists–synergistically creative ball-sharing–this season as Foye. Granted, Foye hasn’t played as much, but on the flip side, Foye is supposedly a point guard.

    Yes, Foye has been felled by injury. But that doesn’t change the fact that, flat-out, McCants has been a better player than Foye on the Wolves thus far this season. Or that he is the team’s best perimeter scoring threat–it isn’t even close. Now, does that mean McCants is or should be superior to Foye on the pecking order of this ballclub? No, not necessarily. But consider that tonight in crunchtime, with the Wolves down three with 30 seconds to play, Foye bulled his way to the hoop and tossed up a too-strong airball layup that was fortunately rebounded by the Wolves and converted into a Jefferson bucket. Consider that with 12 seconds to play and the Wolves down one, Foye turned the ball over on a misguided feed to Jefferson–flashing it too strong and not realizing Jefferson had a bad vision angle because he was visually screened by the man guarding Foye. Consider that Foye continues to have difficulty stopping dribble penetration and has increasing difficulty executing his own dribble penetration because defenders properly seek to take away his right hand.

    This is not to say that the Wolves should abandon Foye, who had a solid 19-6-7 and was plus +2 in over 40 minutes of action tonight. But it is to point out that his play does not suggest him to be a sure bet as a team leader. And to add that if he is regarded that way, to the point of publicly announcing meetings with just him and with a no-doubt leader like Jefferson, then somebody ought to consider that McCants would be offended. I don’t know if that was related to the recent spat or "unprofessional" behavior that Wittman views Shaddy as having committed. But if you are going to go buy a can of oil and a jug of water, don’t be surprised if they don’t mix–and think long and hard about which is more valuable or what else can be done to improve the situation.

    3. Nice Guy Finishing Close To Last

    Of all the players wishing the season would end, Corey Brewer is probably near the top of the list. After a brief stint of decent accuracy, Brewer has shot 3-13 FG over his past three games and increasingly seems to be melting on defense as well. Jason Richardson had about as much regard for his physical prowess as Okafor had for Gomes tonight. A year from now, Brewer needs to be in conversations about "most improved player." Right now he is hurting the club more often than not when he steps on the court. He hustled down floor on the fast break tonight and finger-rolled an airball. Just by watching him this season it is hard to imagine him as anyone other than a proud, hard-working professional who is used to being respected and rewarded for the results he creates. This must be a hellish spring for him.

  • The Three Pointer: Two Ugly

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #75, Road Game #37: Minnesota 88, Phoenix 117

    Game #76, Home Game #39: Memphis 113, Minnesota 101

    Season Record: 19-57

    1. Jefferson Finally Cracks

    The Timberwolves offered themselves and their fans a choice of embarrassing performances over the weekend: Which do you prefer, an annihilation so complete there was literally 38 minutes of garbage time (the Wolves trailed Phoenix 32-12 with 2:10 to play in the first) or being sluggish early and tepid late in order to drop an eminently winnable home game against one of the few opponents with inferior personnel (Sunday’s loss to Memphis)?

    The Phoenix blowout was the more sobering because it was the first time this season that Al Jefferson was plainly rattled. Even when he was getting lunched a half-dozen times by Samuel Dalembert back in ’07, Jefferson was indomitable and his aggression with respect to both wiles and willpower have been the signature virtue for this ballclub this entire season. So when Jefferson seemed so out of sync and disinclined to bull his way into the paint–and, not incidentally, Shaquille O’Neal–that he couldn’t even coordinate his footwork with his dribble, the Wolves were doomed, injured in the head as well as the heart.

    After torching Phoenix for monster games that keyed improbable Minnesota wins twice this season, it just flat-out looked like Jefferson didn’t want to be out there Friday night. After Sunday’s game, someone remarked to coach Randy Wittman that Jefferson only had one shot in the entire first half against Memphis, and Witt was quick to pounce, saying "That was Al, nothing but his doing." The coach added that the second half Sunday was the first time in awhile Jefferson "had been Al Jefferson," that what he had been doing before was "asking for the ball 15, 20 feet from the basket" and the Wolves weren’t going to reward that. Asked if fatigue was a factor, Wittman said yeah, it probably was, but that the guy Jefferson was replacing–KG was inferred, not mentioned outright–played all 82 most of the time. He added that he was proud Jefferson had played all 76 games for the Wolves this year and that it was important to finish strong.

    I sat next to Stephen Litel of Hoopsworld, who mentioned that Jefferson’s voice indicated he had the flu or something before the game. He mentioned some other things about their interview that were interesting and that I imagine he will publish soon if he hasn’t already.

    In any case, the daily beat writers have duly noted that Jefferson is in a bit of a slump, at least statistically, lately. He’s already exceeded his career highs in games and minutes-played by a fairly wide margin. I still think his defense has begun to improve, although it is hard to know against Phoenix because Amare Stoudamire is like a man unleashed since the Shaq acquisition–he’s not only going beserk on offense, but deigning to cover his man with some diligence lately. Today against Memphis, the large mobile swingmen, Mike Miller and Rudy Gay, were the tandem that thrashed the Wolves, neither of them Jefferson’s man on D.

    2. Wittman Still Barking; Are Players Listening?

    Last year, I disrespected Randy Wittman’s performance because he walked in declaring that he was going to hold players accountable and then called out some players directly (Trenton Hassell) and indirectly (Kevin Garnett and his locker room leadership) while Ricky Davis personified corrosive dysfunction and Mark Blount laid down like a dog without a public peep out of Witt in either case.

    This year, Wittman hasn’t been afraid to pull out the carrots or the sticks on any and every player on the roster, and the absence of a double-standard represents an improvement. In the past week or so, the coach has also seemed particularly caustic–and specific in both the nature of his criticism and the punishment. Against Memphis, he told Marko Jaric and Corey Brewer exactly why they were being yanked as they went to the bench, and didn’t mince words with Randy Foye either.

    But there’s a chicken-or-egg dynamic that needs to be addressed here. If I was coaching the team the past two games, I’d go batshit on them too, probably–but is all that haranguing precisely why the effort and grit have begun to wane as the meaningless games pile up in the spring? It’s a very subtle line, but the body language exhibited by the players as they’re being blistered is less deferential and respectful, and certainly more dismissive. It is way too dramatic to say that Witt is "losing the team," given that there literally isn’t that much to lose, quite frankly, and that it is hard to motivate any ballclub that owns less than 20 wins in April. But if the idea was to finish strong–for example, Wittman said he was disappointed because overcoming Memphis in the standings had become a late-season goal–well, that isn’t happening, and there’s only six left to play.

    3. Shaky Cornerstones and Robust Afterthought

    There are few things worse that Rashad McCants knowing that it is garbage time–the "I’ll get mine" shots rain down–but two of them are Al Jefferson and Randy Foye being the abysmal catalysts for that premature garbage. Jefferson we’ve already discussed. Foye followed up two dreadful defensive performances against Detroit and Utah with a totally disinterested and mentally casual game versus Phoenix. After he inexplicably launched a airball three pointer for no reason whatsoever with about 15 seconds on the clock Friday, Wittman almost had no choice but to give him a quick hook, and indeed, McCants climbed off the pine almost before that stupid shot hit the floor.

    The theory I’ve been toying with as for why Foye has regressed recently has to do with leadership. He was obviously the heart and soul of a very talented Villanova team in college, and I assume the same was true in high school. His rookie year he’s naturally going to be very deferential to KG, yet he still manages to snag a niche–"4th Quarter Foye"–and make the all-rookie team. After Garnett was dealt this summer, Foye attended preseason media day loudly announcing that he was now the leader of this ballclub.

    Then he goes down before all this new personnel really gets a chance to see anything out of him. While he’s rehabbing, Jefferson steps to the fore, slathered in gushing praise from the VP of Personnel, who is essentially saying that Al Jefferson is the next Kevin McHale, and will someday eclipse even that. Now McHale had his reason for touting Jefferson so highly that are bound up in basketball philosophy, kindred styles, and butt covering on a huge trade that, even if successful in the long run, represents a failure for McHale for having to make it in the first place. But the net effect is that it is impossible for Foye to assert himself as even co-leader of the club any time this season.

    Foye’s most egregious mistakes this year–some weird statements about the point guard position, for example, and a lack of deference and feeding of Jefferson at crunchtime in favor of taking the shot–make more sense if you consider that he’s had to grapple with a setback in the pecking order as well as physically with his own body this season. The "little" things he hasn’t done well, like defend, and generate some consistency in terms of shot selection, reflect a player trying to figure out for himself what his role is on this team–and I don’t mean point guard or shooting guard; I mean co-leader with Jefferson, chief sidekick to Jefferson, crunchtime go-to guy, etc. As much as Wolves fans worry about him being able to play a set position, maybe an equal concern is whether he can accept a set role–like #2 guy, or less.

    Then there is Kirk Snyder, who w
    as probably the best overall Wolves player this weekend. Yes, Snyder’s defense has slipped a bit recently–he was one of the multitude who couldn’t guard Rudy Gay Sunday, but he draws fouls, gets to the rim, and dishes off penetration better than any none point guard on the club, and plays a hard, physical style that is very handy to have contained in your 8th, 9th or 10th man. Snyder could carve a role for himself at the end of a bench on a very good team, the one who steps in for 10-20 minutes a night for 2-3 weeks when injuries have depleted a roster and prevents a steep drop in quality of play and emotional momentum. He might even be more than that. Yet for about three solid weeks now, he has outplayed Corey Brewer. It says something about the Wolves’ doldrums that that passes for good news nowadays.

  • The Three-Pointer: 3rd Quarter Fold

    Game #74, Road Game #36: Minnesota 100, Utah 117

    Season Record: 19-55

     1. One-Way Jefferson

    Those who check the box score will surmise that Al Jefferson had one of his worst games of the season tonight as the Wolves were routed by Utah, who turned a close and enjoyably contested first half into a blowout with a 38-22 pasting in the third quarter en route to a 117-100 final. I’m posting this quickly and thus am unaware if Jefferson was benched for the entire 4th quarter because he was ailing, or Wittman was displeased with his performance, or merely because it was the frustrating back end of a two-nighter that the Wolves weren’t going to pull out in the final 12 minutes anyway.

    The line shows Jefferson with a remarkably anemic two rebounds, zero assists and 12 points on 5-13 FG and 2-2 FT in 27:49 of action. What the box score doesn’t reveal is that Big Al had one of his more dedicated and effective defensive performances of the year, limiting Carlos Boozer to 5-12 FG and just 12 points (although Boozer did grab 7 rebounds and pass for 4 assists). There weren’t any of the gaudy blocked shots that have raised the shoddy reputation of Jefferson’s defense in recent weeks (although he had a beautiful block that Joey Crawford, a once-great ref who had another in a series of bad nights in recent years, ruled a foul). But there was a stauch commitment to preventing points by the opposing team’s top scorer. For all the times I ripped Jefferson’s D while he was posting 24 and 15 in a mid-winter Wolves loss, I owe him the nod that he did himself proud on one end of the court once again tonight.

    And there’s the rub: Although not to the dramatic extent we saw tonight, there seems to be a correlation between the improvement in Jefferson’s defense and a slight dropoff in his points and rebounds. I remember two or three years ago when the Wolves started asking Trenton Hassell to play a larger role–a #2 or #3 option–on offense, and he told me in the locker room that quality defense took so much out of him that he wasn’t sure he could step up like that. (Hassell’s scoring did improve fairly significantly during that experiment and his defense dipped slightly.)

    The point is, Jefferson expends an enormous, and underappreciated, amount of energy getting his points. He’s scoring in the toughest part of the court, the paint, against teams whose top defensive priority is to stop him, usually with two players and/or specific schemes. And being an undersized center all year long, he’s also had to battle folks as big or bigger than him for rebounds. Throw in the bump and grind of deterring a gritty and wily low post scorer like Boozer on the tail end of a home-road back-to-back and it’s not surprising that the man came up short.

    2. Foye or McCants

    I am becoming convinced that there are Foye people and McCants people. Both players have really excitable and excreable aspects to their games and honest appraisals of both should resemble a roller coaster, given how inconsistent both players have been and how capable they are of engendering hope and disgust not only from game to game but stint to stint within games. I know I’ve lauded and lambasted each one with a yo-yo regularity.

    I confess that Foye has genuinely raised my ire more often this season, despite the fact that he’s played fewer games than Shaddy, and I think it’s because I believe Foye is more a part of the future firmament for this franchise than is McCants. I don’t imagine the Wolves are going to keep both players around for the next two or three years and if a choice is made, McCants will be the one packing his bags.

    The reason I feel this way is because when the team wiped the slate clean with the KG trade, much was made internally about getting high character guys who mesh in the locker room and on the court and foster the kind of synergy required to be a perpetual playoff team. And Shaddy’s volatility doesn’t fit that definition as well as Foye’s comparative "maturity" and magnanimity. Now there is a good chance this intuitive thinking on my part is inaccurate (for example, the entire dynamic may change if a stud point guard falls to the team in the draft or another ballclub likes Foye or McCants enough to make an attractive trade offer). That’s why I haven’t raised it before, and wouldn’t be talking about it now, except that I have to acknowledge that Foye’s foibles are more irksome to me than Shaddy’s.

    Like his complete inability to guard his man. A night after rook Rodney Stuckey showed him up, he stepped up in class in a major way going against Deron Williams, and Williams toyed with him. Sure, as happened last night, Foye posted decent numbers, and finished with 15 points and 6 assists. But after three quarters, Williams was a perfect 7-7 from the field, and had 13 assists and no turnovers. Can a defender be undressed any more thoroughly than that? D-Will’s dribble penetration consistently broke down the Minnesota defense, setting up a large advantage in points in the paint *and* better than 50% shooting from behind the arc. That’s why after three periods, Williams had a game-best plus +21 and Foye had a game-worst minus -21.

    Given that Foye is more the rugged type of point guard at 6-4, 213, and is coming off a significant knee injury, one might think a quick opponent like Stuckey would give him trouble. But then he should be a better matchup for Williams, who is 6-3, 205, and quicker of thought than he is of foot. Nope, resoundingly nope. So if Foye can’t guard Stuckey (27 points last night) and Williams, who can he guard?

    Now folks who are aggravated by McCants were probably throwing things at their televisions when Shaddy was ignoring his teammates and jacking up treys, or coming up a step slow on defense himself on occasion. It certainly felt that way on occasion. But the thing is, McCants made more than half his shots (6-11 FG), including his treys (3-5 from 3pt), and, as usual, posted a plus/minus (minus -5) that was relatively better than most of his teammates, an ongoing phenomenon that has occurred whether he’s starting or coming off the bench. Announcers Tom Hanneman and Jim Petersen frequently mentioned that McCants had a bad game last night against the Pistons–and he did shoot 1-9 FG. But I thought Foye’s performance was more injurious in the loss, and there was no mention of Foye’s bad game versus Detroit. Maybe Hanny and Pete are "Foye people."

    3. And As For the Small Forwards…

    Kirk Snyder has taken a step back since Wittman’s decision to reinsert Corey Brewer into the starting lineup. Tonight, defending Matt Harpring (the matchup that prompted Witt to give him more minutes early in his Wolves tenure), he was outhustled in the paint and in transition more often, and just didn’t have that spark he showed in his first few appearances off the bench and then always as a starter.

    Meanwhile, Brewer continues to be a high energy, high IQ performer who is a suspect shooter, to put it charitably, and physically overmatched on many occasions. Tonight he popped for a decent 4-9 FG and got to the line 4 times (albeit three of them in garbage time), but had just one rebound and zero dimes in 24:24.

    Bonus fourth point: J-Pete noted how Jefferson was being bodied by Mehmet Okur on D, who was also able to wrest rebounds away from Gomes down low, and called for a little Jefferson-Chris Richard tandem on the front line. It was a temporary plea to short-circuit the smallball. But I’ve talked about that enough already.

  • The Three Pointer: Giving One Away

    AP Photo by Paul Battaglia

     
    Game #73, Home Game #38: Detroit 94, Minnesota 90

    Season Record: 19-54

    1. A Rough Night For Foye

    There is more than one goat in a game where the Wolves blew a 21-point lead and wilted down the stretch against a Detroit Pistons team resting arguably their top three starters–Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. But in a contest that was obviously Minnesota’s for the taking, point guard Randy Foye was especially noticeable in his inability to deliver at either end of the court.

    It certainly didn’t begin that way. In the first quarter it seemed apparent that the Wolves were keyed up to win their 5th straight home game and that the Pistons were mailing it in. Especially impressive was the chemistry between Foye and Al Jefferson, starting 70 seconds into the game when Foye fed Jefferson for a slam dunk. It happened again at the 7:21 mark, and a third time–this one finishing with a Jefferson jump hook–at 1:09 to play. The period finished with Jefferson going 4-4 FG, three of them on dimes dropped by Foye. Couple with an aggressive 5-5 FG by notorious clanker Corey Brewer, the Wolves had raced to a 30-18 lead via 9 assists and a 14-6 rebounding edge.

    The pattern continued with both benches on the floor during the first half of the second quarter, Minnesota pushing the lead to 43-22 with 6:50 to play before the break. A Flip Saunders team had just 4 assists in the first 17:10 and Wolves were heading for a blowout.

    Then coach Randy Wittman subbed back in his starters (Jaric, who had entered at 11:43, was already in the game. Brewer came back at 6:16; Jefferson and Foye together at 5:30; and Gomes at 4:35. Yet the Wolves didn’t score a single field goal in the period after Chris Richard’s put-back dunk with 5:38 to play. "Up to that point, we were moving the ball and making the extra pass," Wittman said, and indeed the team’s assist/turnover ratio at the time was 13/4. Added Wittman, "I think we gave this game away in the last six minutes of the second quarter."

    Pistons’ coach Saunders agreed, and even pointed to the specific moment. "I’ve always said one play can change a game and for us no question it was when they missed those four free throws in a row [two by Jaric and two by Jefferson] and we went down and scored and cut the lead to nine." That was during a 16-2 Pistons run that had them back in the game, down just 5, 49-44, at the half.

    Coming out for the second half, Minnesota went back to their bread and butter–Jefferson in the low block. After getting one measly FG attempt in the second period, Big Al scored 7 of the team’s first 10 points in just the opening 2:25 of the third to bump the lead back up to 59-51. At that point Jefferson had 19 very efficient points on 7-8 from the field and there was still more than 21 minutes to left play. But Saunders found a pair of matchups he liked–Tayshaun Prince posting up either Corey Brewer (for 6:43) or Kirk Snyder (for 5:17) and rookie backup point guard Rodney Stuckey (playing for Billups) taking Foye off the dribble. Together, Prince and Stuckey combined for 19 of the Pistons’ 21 points in the third to keep the Wolves’ lead contained at 7, 72-65, heading into the final period.

    But with Jefferson on the pine, the Wolves endured another scoring drought in the first three minutes, enabling the Pistons to tie the game once more. Jason Maxiell in particular was owning the boards, and a cold Rashad McCants kept clanking jumpers. But then Craig Smith executed a nifty pass in the corner to set up Jaric for a trey (The Rhino’s 4th assist) and McCants finally stopped shooting and started dishing, finding Richard for another slam and then, after Gomes and Jefferson returned to action at 5:46, Shaddy fed Big Al for a layup 17 seconds later as Pistons big Amir Johnson committed the foul. Wittman chose that time to sub in Foye for McCants. I asked three journalists around me who they’d rather have in the game right then, Foye or McCants. Everyone (including me) said McCants–it just wasn’t Foye’s night. Jefferson converted the free throw to make it 83-80 with 5:29 to go. And then Foye pissed away the game.

    Yes, Foye nailed a trey to flip a two point deficit into a one point lead with 2:33 to go. Yes, Foye hit a back-arching floater driving across the lane to make cut a three-point deficit down to one with just 31.6 seconds left to play. And yes, Foye’s line doesn’t look that shabby at all: 18 points (on 6-14 FG), 5 rebounds and 4 assists versus just two turnovers.

    But Foye couldn’t stay with Stuckey on D, as the rook drew four fouls on Foye in the final 4:29; none of them the sort of strategic grab meant to pray for missed FTs to cut a lead. In fact all of them occurred with the teams within two points of each other. Stuckey was 7-8 FT as a result, and also stuck 14-foot jumper to break an 88-88 tie in the final minute. Asked why Foye couldn’t stay with Stuckey, Wittman at first pretended he didn’t understand the question (or maybe he was just fatigued). When I clarified–was it bad foot speed, overplaying the dribble, inexperience?–the coach replied, "By labelling it that, you are just making excuses. You [meaning Foye] have got to defend."

    At the other end of the court, Foye’s inability or disinclination to get the ball to Jefferson was driving Big Al crazy–his last field goal attempt occurred with 4:45 to play. With little more than a minute to go in a tie game, Jefferson was literally jumping up and down demanding the ball in the half court. This display of pique was most unwise because it practically obligated Foye to force-feed the rock–something the Pistons well knew, and stole the entry pass Foye attempted on the left block. (Pin that Foye turnover on Jefferson. Pin the half-dozen times Jefferson, who finished 9-12 FG, didn’t get the ball when he should have in the 4th quarter, on Foye.)

    After the steal, Stuckey came down and canned that pull-up jumper over Foye. Wittman called a timeout and subbed in McCants for Brewer to spead the floor a little bit, as the Wolves were down 2 with 45 seconds to play. Out of the timeout, with 15 seconds still on the shot clock, Foye attempted and missed a difficult fadeway over a charging Maxiell. Asked if he’d gotten the shot he wanted on the play, Wittman didn’t play dumb. "No," he said flatly. "There was a switch and we didn’t take advantage of it. Maxiell [Jefferson’s man] switched out and we didn’t take advantage of the mismatch." As the Wolves walked off the floor, there was steam coming out of Jefferson’s ears as he pursed his lips and shook his head. Foye finished at minus -14, five points to the bad of Brewer’s second-worst minus -11.

    In the first and third periods, Jefferson was 8-9 FG, Foye was 4-7 FG with 4 assists, and Wolves outscored the Pistons by 14. In the second and fourth quarters, Jefferson was 1-3 FG, Foye was 2-7 FG with zero assists, and the Pistons outscored the Wolves by 18.

    2. Blistered By the Bench

    Their bench kicked our rear end," Wittman announced after the game–no mean feat, given that three typical Piston benchwarmers were starting in place of Billups, ‘Sheed and Hamilton. McCants and Craig Smith–two Wolves with eFG% that are among the highest on the team–combined for 3-19 FG and 0-4 from beyond the arc. Overall, Detroit’s subs outscored Minnesota’s 40-17, led by Walter Hermann, who dominated the Brewer/Snyder tandem and occasionally Jaric for 11 points.

    3. Kudos

    In tonight’s press kit, Wolves stat guru Paul Swanson put together individual totals for the players both in the past 12 games (not counting tonight’s loss) when Minnesota went 7-5, and in the previous 5 contests, all of them losses. The biggest difference in the
    7-5 and 0-5 playing rotations is that Marko Jaric get the minutes normally allotted to the injured Sebastian Telfair. And whereas Bassy’s assist to turnover was an impressive 6.0/1.6 during that 5-game losing streak, Jaric’s marks over the last dozen are 5.0/1.1, and he shot 50% (versus Telfair’s 40.5% in the previous five) besides.

    Kirk Snyder likewise is shooting well–50.6%–over the past dozen, is getting to the free throw line through aggressive penetration, and is defending as well as Corey Brewer. Bottom line, if no one knew who was the heavily-invested first-round pick and who was the recently-acquired player from whom not much was expected, people would be as likely to name Snyder as the keeper right now as they would Brewer. No bias there (I actually like Brewer, as most folks are aware), just fact. Tonight Snyder tied Jaric with a team-best plus +9, while, despite his hot early shooting, Brewer finished at minus -11.

    Ryan Gomes was among those who had a tough night shooting (3-10 FG), but in classic Gomes fashion did enough little things right to register a plus +2. Before tonight, Gomes had converted half his field goal attempts and was averaging 17.8 ppg over the last dozen. His improvement and the development of Foye in the backcourt have enabled the Wolves to shoot a surprising 49% as a team since the all star break.

     

  • Open Thread: Wolves Top Jazz Again

    Minnesota played its best basketball game of the season to beat Utah earlier this season. They played one of their worst, least inspired games in the rematch with the Jazz, a contest in which my criticism of the Wolves’ effort was greeted by many commenters with: "We knew they had no chance because Utah remembers what happened the first time and wants revenge."

    Okay, I wasn’t there this afternoon–out of town on another assignment–so what happened?

    As in the first game, it looks as if the scoring was very balanced, with seven players in double figures, and an 8th, Randy Foye, with 9 points on just 5 shots. Kirk Snyder, bumped from the starting lineup for the first time in nearly a month, led the Wolves in plus/minus and Jefferson, McCants and Gomes led them in scoring. On paper, it looks as if D-Will had a bad game.

    So chime and let me know what happened.

  • Not Enough Sugar to Make It Addictive

    Brian Blade Fellowship
    Seasons of Change
    Verve
    Release date: April 1, 2008

    Blade’s ensemble seems heavily
    influenced by his membership in Wayne Shorter’s magnificent but overtly
    cerebral quartet, which isn’t always a good thing. The frequently
    lethargic pace and finely crafted harmonic and melodic nuances occasionally
    feel like music that must be listened to for your own good, like a meal
    fortified with fiber but not very tasty. Praise be, then, to bust-outs
    like Melvin Butler’s gnarly tenor saxophone solo on "Return of the
    Prodigal Son," which also benefits from guitarist Kurt Rosenwinkel,
    whose tone and groove are reminiscent of Skunk Baxter on "Reeling
    In The Years." Like the rest of the disc, the title track is a hit-and-miss
    magnum opus, which does take advantage of Blade’s masterful ability
    to turn the temperature up and down as a timekeeper. There are some
    things here I’ll want to revisit: Myron Walden’s bass clarinet
    on "Rubylou’s Lullaby;" the way "Most Precious One (Prodigy)"
    apes The Bad Plus, of all people; the found-beauty of "Improvisation,"
    with its pump organ undertow; and the slow build and crescendo of the
    closer, "Omni." But there’s not enough sugar or caffeine to make
    it addictive in the slightest.

    ** 1/2 (Two and a half out of five stars)

  • Riding on the Tail of a Cloud

    Charles Lloyd Quartet
    Rabo de Nube
    ECM

    I’m not a diehard Lloyd acolyte.
    There’s some stuff in his huge catalog that is deliriously good, like
    Flowering     and Journey Within from the ’60s, and Voice In
    The Night     with Dave Holland, John Abercrombie, and Billy Higgins
    from the late ’90s. But his last one, Sangam, left me cold—a
    saxophone wankfest through a thicket of beats, laden with faux spirituality
    that was too pretentious (or perhaps too profound) for me to fathom.

    But I’ll gush about Rabo
    de Nube    , a live quartet album (something Lloyd used to do regularly
    four decades ago) in which the 70-year-old sensei may be the most staid
    and least creative member of his band. The fusillade-oriented approach
    drummer Eric Harland used in tandem with tabla player Zakir Hussain
    on Sangam is more effectively propulsive (like Billy Kilson sounded
    in Holland’s band) coupled with bassist Ruben Rogers. Harland steals
    the show on "Prometheus," supporting Lloyd with a plush density
    of beats that, like gusts of wind in sails, carries instead of shoves
    the rhythm. Rogers complements him with enthusiasm and delivers noteworthy
    solos on the first three songs to boot.

    But the best thing about
    Rabo     is how well pianist Jason Moran fits in, and enriches, Lloyd’s
    somewhat ethereal aesthetic. His glancing harmonies on "Prometheus"
    and inspired blues turn on "Migration of Spirit" are the prelude
    for his two-part tour de force on "Booker’s Garden." His first
    solo begins regally, but just when it appears headed for cocktail piano
    clichés, Moran drops in some slightly dissonant, modal phrases, then
    winds the pace down to a near-standstill, his elegiac moments of near-silence
    (the piece is a Lloyd’s tribute to the late trumpeter Booker Little)
    slightly upturned at the end. His second solo is the pinnacle of
    Rabo    , an audacious juggling of the offhand funk and boogie woogie
    (built up from single-note vamps) you might expect from Jaki Byard,
    and the sort of spectral leaps and resonant flurries that characterize
    the work of former Lloyd pianists Keith Jarrett and Brad Mehldau, and
    Harland’s superb accompaniment is pomade, glistening the luster.

    Lloyd varies between tenor,
    flute, and, for "Ramanujan," taragato, on which he sounds like Coltrane
    playing soprano sax. I’ve generally preferred it when he harkens to
    his Memphis roots or otherwise plays straight ahead, so his lively variation
    on "Sweet Georgia Brown" (entitled "Sweet Georgia Bright") is
    a favorite, along with the lone cover song of the concert, a closing
    rendition of the title track by Silvio Rodriguez that makes for a soft,
    lyrical landing.

    **** (Four stars)

     

  • Charles Lloyd Quartet: Rabo de Nube

    Lloyd’s last album, Sangam, was nothing more than a
    saxophone wankfest through a thicket of beats, laden with faux spirituality
    that was too pretentious (or perhaps too profound). But the 70-year-old sensei may be the most staid
    and least creative member of his band in Rabo
    de Nube    , his latest live quartet album (something Lloyd used to do regularly
    four decades ago). The fusillade-oriented approach
    drummer Eric Harland used in tandem with tabla player Zakir Hussain
    on Sangam is more effectively propulsive (like Billy Kilson sounded
    in Holland’s band) coupled with bassist Ruben Rogers. Harland steals
    the show on "Prometheus," supporting Lloyd with a plush density
    of beats that, like gusts of wind in sails, carries instead of shoves
    the rhythm. Rogers complements him with enthusiasm and delivers noteworthy
    solos on the first three songs to boot.

    But the best thing about
    Rabo     is how well pianist Jason Moran fits in, and enriches, Lloyd’s
    somewhat ethereal aesthetic. His glancing harmonies on "Prometheus"
    and inspired blues turn on "Migration of Spirit" are the prelude
    for his two-part tour de force on "Booker’s Garden." His first
    solo begins regally, but just when it appears headed for cocktail piano
    clichés, Moran drops in some slightly dissonant, modal phrases, then
    winds the pace down to a near-standstill, his elegiac moments of near-silence
    (the piece is a Lloyd’s tribute to the late trumpeter Booker Little)
    slightly upturned at the end. His second solo is the pinnacle of
    Rabo    , an audacious juggling of the offhand funk and boogie woogie
    (built up from single-note vamps) you might expect from Jaki Byard,
    and the sort of spectral leaps and resonant flurries that characterize
    the work of former Lloyd pianists Keith Jarrett and Brad Mehldau, and
    Harland’s superb accompaniment is pomade, glistening the luster.

    Lloyd varies between tenor,
    flute, and, for "Ramanujan," taragato, on which he sounds like Coltrane
    playing soprano sax. I’ve generally preferred it when he harkens to
    his Memphis roots or otherwise plays straight ahead, so his lively variation
    on "Sweet Georgia Brown" (entitled "Sweet Georgia Bright") is
    a favorite, along with the lone cover song of the concert, a closing
    rendition of the title track by Silvio Rodriguez that makes for a soft,
    lyrical landing.

  • Brian Blade Fellowship: Season of Changes

    Blade’s ensemble seems heavily
    influenced by his membership in Wayne Shorter’s magnificent but overtly
    cerebral quartet, which isn’t always a good thing. The frequently
    lethargic pace and finely crafted harmonic and melodic nuances occasionally
    feel like music that must be listened to for your own good, like a meal
    fortified with fiber but not very tasty. Praise be, then, to bust-outs
    like Melvin Butler’s gnarly tenor saxophone solo on "Return of the
    Prodigal Son," which also benefits from guitarist Kurt Rosenwinkel,
    whose tone and groove are reminiscent of Skunk Baxter on "Reeling
    In The Years." Like the rest of the disc, the title track is a hit-and-miss
    magnum opus, which does take advantage of Blade’s masterful ability
    to turn the temperature up and down as a timekeeper. There are some
    things here I’ll want to revisit: Myron Walden’s bass clarinet
    on "Rubylou’s Lullaby;" the way "Most Precious One (Prodigy)"
    apes The Bad Plus, of all people; the found-beauty of "Improvisation,"
    with its pump organ undertow; and the slow build and crescendo of the
    closer, "Omni." But there’s not enough sugar or caffeine to make
    it addictive in the slightest.

  • 2008 Major League Baseball Forecast—American League

    AP Photo by David J. Phillip

    American League East

    1. Boston Red Sox

    It’s more interesting (or at least less conventional) playing Devil’s Advocate about why the Sox *won’t* repeat as pennant winners. Practically everything went right last season: Papelbon’s shoulder held firm and Beckett’s blisters didn’t grow, and every rookie was off-the-charts good, from spunky Pedroia to no-hit Bucholtz to speedy Ellersby to the supreme set-ups of Okajima. Okay, so Dice-K was shaky and Ortiz was one-legged, and Manny couldn’t always be Manny at the plate and Drew was horribly inconsistent. The odds of those negatives repeating are greater than a reprise of the positives. I mean, Manny is 36, Papi can’t hit any better than last year even with two good knees, and Dice-K and Drew aren’t the kind of performers you entrust with the mortgage money. And Curt Schilling is toast, Mike Lowell is old…Okay, back to reality. They have the best balance of pitching depth and hitting depth in all of baseball. Their Vegas odds are the lowest on the board. As April dawns, they are the team to beat.

    2. Toronto Blue Jays

    Yup, the Jays will overtake the Yankees this season. Their starting rotation stacks up with anybody–Halladay a legit ace, Marcum and McGowan a pair of live arms coming into their own, and AJ Burnett an injury-prone stud at #4. Closer BJ Ryan’s elbow injury in early May actually fortified the bullpen for this season as Accardo, Downs and Janssen all stepped up–and now Ryan is fast on the mend. Meanwhile, outfielder Alex Rios is a budding star, Vernon Wells is due for a big comeback, and snagging the left side of Cards’ 2006 champion infield–3B Scott Rolen and SS David Eckstein–to go with great glove man Aaron Hill at 2B will make all those ground-ball pitchers on the staff happy and wealthy. The Blue Jays are ready to compete with the big boys.

    3. New York Yankees

    The George Steinbrenner-Joe Torre era is over, yet the roster looks distressingly similar. There’s a hell of a lot of pressure on young pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to produce, because it’s hard to see how the Yankees improve enough to surmount the Red Sox and not get overtaken by the Blue Jays otherwise. Two-thirds of their batting order is in decline: Damon, Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, and yes, even Jeter (now 34). Ditto starters Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina and Mariano The Great in the pen. So, what, A-Rod is supposed to knock in *more* than 156 runs this year to make up the difference?

    4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Even after jettisoning hot prospects Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, their lineup is no longer a joke. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton are five-tool players, Carlos Pena can lose a third of his long-ball production and still hit 30 dingers, and there is some potent old (Cliff Floyd) and young (Evan Longoria) help on the way. But the starting rotation needs to quicken: Would-be ace Scott Kazmir is still teasing out his upside, Jamie Shields needs to show he can put together back-to-back solid seasons, and the Twins’ scouting staff isn’t in the habit of giving up someone like Matt Garza unless there’s a significant flaw in his makeup. Even so, you throw in former Dodgers hot prospect Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine as your #5 and that’s a talented rotation with nobody over age 25. The Rays are emerging.

    5. Baltimore Orioles

    Finally they rebuild in earnest, although trading Eric Bedard to Seattle was lunacy even if they did pluck a potentially great center fielder in Adam Jones out of the deal. Aside from nascent star outfielder Nick Markakis and Jones, there aren’t any uber-talented kids shoving the likes of Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez out of the way. And their pitching is wretched. When you can’t sell out Camden Yards any longer, you know you’ve been doing something very wrong for a pretty long time.

     

    American League Central

    1. Cleveland Indians

    The Indians-Tigers and Red Sox-Blue Jays-Yankees both should be hotly contested races from wire to wire. While the Tigers retooled in a major way, the Tribe stood pat with a dignity and wisdom Twins fans will recognize. Their homegrown beef brothers CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are the league’s best 1-2 mound tandem, their bullpen took a quantum leap forward last season with the emergence of Betancourt and Perez, and back-of-the-rotation vets Westbrook and Cliff Lee will be healthier (physically and mentally, respectively) this year. At the plate, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez should be close to their glorious primes, Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera represent a promising new right side of the infield, and Casey Blake is unsung but effective. Even so, the Indians’ hope of outlasting Detroit may rely on Travis Hafner not imploding.

    2, Detroit Tigers

    Miguel Cabrera is a stone-cold hitter who might give A-Rod a run for his money in the power categories this year, but the other plum from Florida, pitcher Dontrelle Willis, is less of a sure thing. Too bad, because after certifiable ace Justin Verlander, the rotation is iffy. Jeremy Bonderman broke down last season, Kenny Rogers is on his third installment of borrowed time, and Nate Robertson is an innings-eating mediocrity (not that there is anything wrong with that). Oh, and the bullpen is weak, from middle relief right through to closer Todd Jones. Nevertheless, the Tigers will win a lot of 9-7 and 11-9 games. Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield are aging, and another 139 ribbies from Magglio Ordonez is unlikely, but with Cabrera and SS Edgar Renteria on board and Carlos Guillen moving to first base, there are no weaknesses in theTigers’ batting order.

    3. Minnesota Twins

    Although many pundits are picking the hometown nine 4th or 5th, I don’t think I’m drinking the local kool-aid. Morneau and Cuddyer should find a productive mean between their last two seasons and Mauer should be healthy enough for a career-best OPS–and if he’s not, let’s play him at 3B finally, okay Gardy? Delmon Young replaces Torii Hunter’s bat at a fraction of the price and is going to get better a lot faster than he gets more expensive. Yes, the staples of pitching and defense have taken a hit, even with the second coming of Mark Belanger, Adam Everett, taking over at short. Baker, Slowey and Bonser sounds better as a law firm than as the top half of a starting rotation–I haven’t forgotten about Livan Hernandez; I just don’t expect much beyond his workhorse capabilities yielding mediocre results. If the vegan might of Pat Neshek can hold until autumn and Dennis Reyes is more than a one-year wonder (two years ago) the bullpen will be a strength. But mostly I’m picking the Twins third because the White Sox are still dysfunctional and the Royals are ready to ascend yet.

    4. Chicago White Sox

    Ozzie Guillen doesn’t seem like a great manager for encores, The Pale Hose are a ballclub that need to tear it down to close to the studs, but instead they’re sticking with the Konerkos and Credes and Dyes and AJs and Thomes in order to have their foolish dreams rudely abused by the Indians and Tigers. Nick Swisher was a nice pickup from Oakland, and sooner or later room has to be made for Josh Fields at third over Crede, and the Cuban kid at second, Alexei Ramirez, could be exciting. But acquiring Orlando Cabrera for shortstop and keeping Javy Vazquez and Jose Contreras in the rotation means that the profane Guillen and company are in it to win it–and when they don’t, things will get ugly.

    5. Kansas City Royals

    The ceiling on erstwhile prospects like OF David DeJesus and C John Buck and P Zack Grinke seems to be lower than anticipated, but the Royals finally seem to be headed in the right direction anyway, thanks to former Atlanta exec Dayton Moore, a GM who is building for the long haul from the ground up. In Alex
    Gordon and Billy Butler, KC has two dangerous young hitters, and Tony Pena Jr. flashes the sort of leather than can anchor an infield defense at shortstop. Until Moore can choose and develop a few more quality pieces, the Royals will rely too heavily on dime-store "stars" like pitcher Gil Meche and outfielder Jose Guillen to carry them. But it is not hopeless any more–or at least not for long.

    American League West

    1. Seattle Mariners

    Casual fans may be surprised by this pick, but the Mariners are due. They’ve got one of the top five payrolls in the league, one of the 5 oldest rosters, won 88 games last year, and added arguably the best pitcher remaining in the AL, Eric Bedard, to their staff. Paired with King Felix Hernandez, 16-game winner Miguel Batista, and veterans Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, the rotation is among the league’s elite–and their closer, JJ Putz, stands alongside Joe Nathan as the best in the game today. On offense, the M’s still have Ichiro, an underrated if aging hitter in Raul Ibanez, and decent run producers for their positions in C Kenji Johjima, 2B Jose Lopez (who will bounce back closer to his 2006 breakout) and 3B Adrian Beltre. Even middling seasons from 1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro would help. The bugaboo is defense, especially in the spacious outfield, where Ichiro will go on his own WeightWatchers plan trying to cover ground between Ibanez and pudgy Brad Wilkerson.

    2. Los Angeles Angels

    It seems every year some promising contender is snakebit by injuries, and having their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvin Escobar, go down with ailments this spring points toward the Halos as this year’s hard luck story. Mike Scioscia is the best manager in the game at manufacturing runs, and with the signing of Torii Hunter to protect Vlad Guerrero in the batting order and the acquisition of Jon Garland for the rotation, the Angels clearly mean to go for it all in 2008. But can the likes of Jered Weaver, Garland and Ervin Santana hold the fort until Lackey and Escobar return?

    3. Oakland Athletics

    Oakland will exceed expectations and approach last year’s 76-86 mark despite a massive rebuilding campaign because, as usual, the front office can identify talent. Outfielder Travis Buck, 1B Daric Barton and C Kurt Suzuki are ready now, and OFs Chris Denorfia and Carlos Gonzalez aren’t far away. As placeholders go, 2B Mark Ellis and OF Emil Brown aren’t too shabby, and sooner or later the left side of the infield, Crosby and Chavez, have to be healthy on the same day–don’t they? More to the point, a rotation led by Rich Harden and Joe Blanton with lefty Dana Eveland coming over from Arizona in the Dan Haren deal is miles better than Texas, enough to keep the A’s out of last place.

    4. Texas Rangers

    What a mess. The pitching staff is heaped with underachievers like Millwood and Padilla and Jason Jennings, the vaunted left side of the infield–Young and Blalock–has seen better days, and they are counting on talented but star-crossed outfielders Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to give them a boost. The good news is that Ian Kinsler is a budding star at 2B and Jarrod Saltalamacchia projects as a Victor Martinez clone at C/1B. Avoiding 90 losses would be an achievement.