The Rake Magazine

Category: Timberwolves

  • The Black Mamba Finally Gets His Moment

    Well, now we know the reason behind Kobe Bryant’s curiously fitful and misguided play during the first seven games of the Olympic tournament: An absence of pressure. Nearly universally (and accurately) regarded as the best clutch shooter in the game today, Kobe’s commanding crunchtime aplomb was a superfluous virtue as the USA men ran roughshod over the best the rest of the world had to offer. The average margin of victory had been well over 20 points per game, boosted by a 37-point pasting of Spain in their previous matchup just last week.

    But with 8:13 to play in the final period of the Gold Medal Game in the wee Sunday morning hours here in the States, the Spainards flash-flooded the notion of Everything To Lose in the minds of the so-called Redeem Team with a 7-0 run that had them down by a bucket, 91-89. Although nearly every player on the USA roster was "The Man" for their respective ballclubs in similar situations back home, this was alien pressure, both for its novelty in this tournament and the enormous stakes involved. If there was one performer whose entire alpha persona thrived on such moments it was Kobe, the self-described Black Mamba, who could simultaneously poison the hopes and suffocate the competitive fire of his opponents. He didn’t disappoint; indeed, it was obviously the moment for which he had been impatiently waiting.

    As the somewhat rattled USA squad came back on to the court after a timeout, Kobe had up to that point lodged a fairly typical Olympic game for his tournament: He was shooting just 3-9 from the field, owing in part to his inaccuracy from long range–he had clanked four of his five shots from beyond the arc. He had yet to go to the foul line.

    No matter. The next 2:11–131 seconds–belonged to Kobe, and decided this tournament. First he nailed a two-pointer to halt Spain’s run and give the USA some crucial breathing space. Next time down the court, he drew the defenders toward him and fed Deron Williams for a trey; the possession after that he penetrated and dished to Dwight Howard for a slam. At the other end, he and his teammates had harrassed hot shooter Rudy Fernandez into three straight misses, that would be broken when Fernandez sank a trey after an offensive rebound of his last misfire. Kobe answered that with a three-pointer of his own. Bang. Just like that it was 101-92 with 6:02 to play–enough room for Kobe’s teammates to relax into their own prodigiously talented games.

    Comparisons to Michael Jordan have become hackneyed, not to mention unfair, for NBA players over the past decade–it is like anointing a singer-songwriter the next Dylan or a reggae artist the next Marley. But there is one trait Kobe possesses that involuntarily brings up memories of MJ–an almost maniacal need to be the straw that stirs the drink when the game is on the line. There are other sublime clutch shooters–Manu Ginobili comes to mind. But Ginobili–or Robert Horry, or even LeBron James–won’t engage in a bloodthirsty fight to seize the right to be either hero or goat. (Yes, I know there have been times when Kobe has "disappeared" in big games. But even then, it seemed as if he was ostentatiously proving a point about his value to the team by withdrawing his aggression. Thankfully those days seem to be over.)

    To its credit, Spain wouldn’t give up, clawing to within 5, at 104-99, with 3:34 to play. Twenty-two seconds later, Kobe thrust in the first dagger, sinking another three-pointer while simultaneously drawing the disqualifying foul on Fernandez, Spain’s leading scorer with 22 points in 18 minutes. Although the 4 point play built the lead back to 8, Spain was again within 4 with 2:08 to go when Dwyane Wade canned a trey, for the second dagger into the reeling bull. After a Juan Carlos Navarro free throw, Kobe provided the third and fatal blow, a layup that pushed the lead back to 8 with 72 seconds left. A pair of meaningless free throws gave Kobe 13 points in the final 8:13, along with those two huge assists–one outside to D-Will, the other inside to Howard.

    The best player of this Olympics for the USA was clearly LeBron, who did everything as a Superglue guy. LeBron’s foul trouble early in the game created a horrible defensive tone for USA, because, as commentator Doug Collins (who had an excellent Olympics himself) pointed out, the weakside help on the Spanish bigs simply wasn’t large or fast enough to deter them the way only LeBron could. Down the stretch, LeBron played with four fouls while battling the water buffalo Marc Gasol for position in the paint. This was far from his best game, but when you gleaned the stat sheet, there he was, with 14 points on 6-9 FG (2-3 3pt, 0-2 FT), 6 rebounds (second to Chris Bosh’s 7), and three apiece in assists, steals and turnovers. Looking back on their rookie years, does anyone else recall how much Charles Barkley and others were touting LeBron and Melo Anthony as equals?

    It’s been said before by many others, but the biggest surprise of this tournament for the USA was how big Chris Bosh played underneath, without losing his ability to show hard toward the perimeter on pick and rolls. Bosh’s court intelligence was especially impressive: More than any of his teammates he seemed to adapt and thrive in the international game. Maybe practicing all year with Spainards Jose Calderon and Juan Carlos Navarro [correction: Calderon and Argentinian Carlos Delfino; Navarro was in Memphis] in Toronto with the Raptors had an effect. The other pleasant surprise was the rejuvenation of Dwyane Wade, who led all scorers in the Gold Medal Game with 27, and was invaluable in maintaining the USA lead when both LeBron and Kobe were shelved with foul trouble. Wade also typified the USA’s ball-hawking, transition-oriented style, and was one of the precious few able to maintain that rhythm against Spain, with 4 steals. Anyone who loves the aesthetic pleasure of NBA athletes is thrilled to see him back in vintage form. I would place him second only to LeBron in overall effectiveness for these Olympics.

    While Chris Paul was money from the free throw line, did anyone else think the pressure got to him a bit today? Both Argentina and Spain deployed their zones on Paul as much as on Jason Kidd, inviting both to shoot. Kidd’s questionably accuracy made the strategy unsurprising, but the international three-point line is well within Paul’s range. While Paul wanted the ball in his hands when free throws would ice the game, he looked far less self-assured in those second-half moments when Spain was within a possession or two of the lead. And Paul’s defense was shoddy in the Gold Medal Game.

    On the other side of the ball, as good as Pau Gasol was, with 21 points on 9-18 FG, six rebounds and just one turnover, did anyone else hope it was up to him to put Spain over the top at crunchtime. Between Gasol and Lamar Odom, Laker fans better hope that Andrew Bynum has been sufficiently toughened by Kobe criticism to emerge as a legit crunchtime sidekick, or there could be volcanic emotional displays in the playoffs ahead.

    Felipe Reyes is a mucker supreme, an absolutely invaluable commodity on the basketball court–I’m surprised the Spurs haven’t heavily pursued him, although I hear he makes a boatload of money in the Euro league. But the teenage point guard, Ricky Rubio, is going to be an NBA starter within the next three years. His entire game screams NBA, and after a shaky first tilt versus the USA, his play today, especially his on-ball defense, was much improved.

    Bottom line, these Olympics were a great diversion for hoops fans waiting on the opening of NBA training camps. And the opening of the regular season is less than ten weeks away.

  • 40 Minutes from Gold

    Perhaps it’s because I’m so NBA-centric and the Olympic team from Argentina has so many quality NBA pros on its roster (Gibobili, Scola, Nocioni, Oberto), but I always thought today’s semifinal would be USA’s toughest game of the tournament. And it probably was. After racing out to a huge lead that was 30-9 with six seconds left in the first quarter, Kobe Bryant and company were suckered by a zone, started clanking from three-point territory, and were a bad call away from leading by just six, after one half. (The whistle on Melo Anthony’s trey–giving him three successful FTs just before the half, was questionable at best, and meant as much to the psychological flow of the game as Deron Williams’s half-concluding trey did versus Australia on Wednesday.)

    But two folks I’ve been hard on thus far this tournament–Jason Kidd and Coach Mike Krzyzewski–re-established the low-post play that was the first important step in overcoming Argentina’s mediocre zone D. I counted four assists for Kidd in the pivotal third quarter alone, and all of them fed the low block–three times to Dwight Howard. It was patently obvious that Coach K had stressed banging the rock into the paint, and purposefully installed Kidd at the point to get it done in the second half. If anything, Kidd overdid it, with two or three forced and disrupted passes into Howard mixed in with the dimes. But Kidd’s seven assists were five more than any other teammate, as the USA squad seemed determined to deviate from their strengths, which are athleticism and interior passing off penetration. It ain’t three pointers. As Doug Collins frequently pointed out, the Red White and Blue shot from behind the arc for more than half of their attempts in the first half, and most of those came in the wretched second quarter, when Argentina outscored them 29-19 despite the fact that their star, Ginobili, was already done for the game with a bum ankle, and that Nocioni was clearly hobbled by a bad knee.

    Let’s name names. Kobe Bryant’s disappointing tournament continued today, as he went 2-9 from beyond the arc and 3-5 from inside it. Melo likewise jacked up most of his shots from outside, going 2-8 from beyond the arc and 1-6 inside it, with the latter total mitigated by his 13-13 performance at the line (ten of those generated by tough rebounds, shooting technicals, and fouls on two-pointers). Throw in a decent 3-6 3ptFG performance by LeBron, and the USA’s top three in minutes today were 7-23 from three point land, leading to the team’s 10-31 from trey overall. By contrast, the squad was 22-37 from two-point range, just a whisker under 60%.

    I know that shooting threes is the international game. But for the USA, it is the lazy way out. When they constantly push the tempo and look for each other underneath, good things almost always happen, and there is no team in the world talented enough to stop them merely with a packed-in zone. Did everybody see what LeBron did to the Magic, Pistons and Celtics off the dribble in the playoffs? Does anyone think Deron Williams can’t get inside of the toughest zone D, either by passing or penetrating? (So why were all of D-Will’s four shots from trey today?) When the USA is zipping the ball and taking it off the dribble, it naturally peps up their pressure defense by creating a predatory rhythm and flow. And that in turn leads to transition fast breaks, of which there were precious few today, despite the absence of Ginobili and the fact that Argentina committed four more turnovers than their tournment average of a dozen.

    Another, related, reason for the USA second quarter doldrums was the absence of Dwyane Wade due to foul trouble. Unlike Melo, Kobe and LeBron, Wade hasn’t fallen in love with the trey this tournament–he’s taking it to the rack like in the vintage games of 2006. His 4-7 FG (with just 0-1 from trey) actually lowered his FG% a fair bit for the tournament.

    Let’s face it, Kidd is the captain in name only. I would say LeBron carries the most weight of anyone on this club, but Kobe is a close second, and outside the confines of the team, Kobe is the most prominent face of the USA Olympians. That’s what makes his mediocre tournament so desultory. I’m a reformed Kobe hater. Last year’s regular season turned me around on the guy. But thus far in these games, half of his shots are treys: He’s made 14-45 three pointers (42 points) and 27-45 two pointers (54 points). I mean, it’s not like this guy is Michael Redd, best utilized pulling up and jacking. Only Kobe Bryant can make Kobe Bryant shoot just 9 FTs in 161 minutes of Olympic action. Kobe is second on the squad in minutes and 7th in FTA, plus 9th in FG%, and 6th in assists. But he’s way way ahead in three point attempts, with 15 more than Melo’s second place 30. This is a guy who can usually do pretty much what he wants with the ball in his hands. And what he apparently wants to do in these Olympics is miss three-pointers.

    There is some talk that Spain will naturally try to duplicate Argentina’s success and deploy a zone in the Gold Medal Game on Sunday. Well, Spain has played more zone than Argentina, and, with all the injuries Argentina was dealing with, has more overall talent at its disposal. If the USA plays as stupidly Sunday as it did today, it might be a ballgame for awhile.

    But I suspect that Coach K and Kidd have demonstrated to Williams and Chris Paul that attacking the zone with quickness off the dribble and interior passes is the way to go, especially since all of Spain’s bigs are relatively slow. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kobe and Melo keep jacking from outside, because they’re ultimately alpha guys who don’t want to admit mistakes or concede supremacy (which helps explain their postseason failures, by the way). It also wouldn’t surprise me if one or the other got hot and the final game was a blowout, akin to the first USA-Spain tilt. But if there is one thing we all have learned thus far, it is that Coach K’s crew doesn’t need the three pointer to florish. No, it is superior depth, athleticism, and defensive tenacity that makes them the greatest squad ever assembled since (and perhaps including) the original Dream Teamers.

    Two final thoughts: For all the talk about what a classy makeover the USA Team has done in terms of its image, all it took was one relatively close game for Melo to get in people’s faces and talk smack after a hard foul on Dwight Howard. For anyone who remembers Melo’s back-peddling paddycake in his last "fight," it really reinforces his punk credentials.

    As one who called Luis Scola the Rookie of the Year in the NBA last season (and it was close only with Atlanta’s Al Horford), I will close with my own punkish, "I told you so" in light of Scola’s monster 28 point, 11 rebound performance without Ginobili to take the pressure off. We’d seen similar grit and depth of effort throughout the 2007-08 season in Houston by Scola. He was far superior to ROY Kevin Durant, a scattershot gunner on a terrible team, and will be better for the next 2-3 years to boot. The reputation of Durant, inflated by Sports Guy Bill Simmons’ constant advocacy and those multi-shirted NBA ads last year, may be greater than Scola’s, but if you want to win basketball games, take the Argentinian.

  • American Conquistadors

    People averse to redundancy will cite the USA men’s basketball team’s sudden accuracy from the three-point line (12-25, after shooting 29% in the previous three games) and free-throw stripe (19-24, after going 69% before) as noteworthy factors in its 37-point rout of defending World Champion Spain, 119-82, on Saturday morning. But if accuracy is what you’re after, the most significant reasons for this thrashing are no different from the previous three this team has administered: Bloodhound defense that is quick, smart, relentless, opportunistic and synergistic. And unselfish, improvisational, transition-oriented offense that only very rarely opts for flash over efficiency.

    Saturday’s performance was so thoroughly sublime I can’t even criticize Jason Kidd, who had his best 13 minutes of the tournament by staying with Jose Calderon on the perimeter. Defensive quickness and aggression in transition have made Deron Williams and Chris Paul better options than Kidd in the backcourt, which is why both rank among the top five in minutes-played. But Kidd turned back the page a little bit with his lateral movement guarding Calderon. And he also was forced to take a shot, wide open for a layup on a breakaway.

    The performance that is likely to affect rotations in the near future was the play of Tayshaun Prince, who got some non-garbage time and drained three of four treys in addition to stolid defense. Not only does this push Michael Redd further into the background, it gives Coach K more length without backsliding on the team’s most significant virtue: the ability to extend crushing man-to-man defense out to the perimeter and still guard both the paint and the wings. For most of the tournament, LeBron has been the best inside-outside defensive guy, capable of both filling passing lanes and blocking shots attempted off the dribble. Prince brings a similar dynamic, and if he can also load up the three, opponents are going to have yet another matchup nightmare and yet another tough decision about how to defend this collection of superstars. The best three-point shooters for the USA through four games are Melo and Prince.

    Thus far, the USA has destroyed every team that has tried to pressure them. Their successful response has been an utterly simple formula: Paul and Williams need to avoid picking up their dribble (check) and get the ball to one of the swingmen like LeBron or Wade or Kobe (check), who either drive for a score, shoot an open jumper that usually scores, or, most often, dish down low to a man left unguarded by the manpower loss from the trap. LeBron had 8 assists Saturday, and it was probably his most careless game with the ball (he also had 4 turnovers).

    Meanwhile, at the other end, the USA’s defense forbids transition hoops. On a day of amazing stats, the jaw-dropper was zero fast break points for Spain, versus 32 for the USA.

    Aside from Prince, and general improvement from relative laggards like Kidd and Dwight Howard, there is a clearcut pattern developing on this team, as roles and identities are beginning to gel. And it contains a few surprises. Essentially, Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade have switched identities, relative to expectations going into the tournament. People imagined that Kobe would be everywhere, getting the key steal, the crucial bucket, and generally being the one to nip negative momentum in the bud. For D-Wade, people imagined there would be flashes of brilliance but also periods where he’d bite off more than he could chew, either trying to stick the dagger in with a shot or getting too antsy or just trying to figure out how to mesh his ball-dominant game in with a plethora of superstars. But Wade has played like people thought Kobe would perform, and vice versa.

    The lineup that Coach K counts on to generate separation is Williams and Paul in the backcourt, Wade and LeBron as the swingmen and Bosh in the pivot. After four games it is obvious that the Bosh-Wade-Paul-Williams substitutions improve the team. That’s not to denigrate Kobe or even Melo, Howard and Kidd, but the others are quicker defensively and just seem hungrier out on the floor. They–and especially Wade–demoralize opponents.

    A few more quick takes:

    * Horrible officiating in the first half. What happened to "letting them play" in the Olympics? The refs were especially protective of the 17-year old point guard Ricky Rubio, who went to the free throw line if he was breathed on during his first few stints.

    * The best opponent, by far, against the USA thus far has been burly forward Felipe Reyes, who shot 9-12, grabbed five offensive rebounds and also played decent defense. By contrast, I was shocked at how poorly Calderon played, but not at the lousy performance by Juan Navarro. The former is a future all star in the NBA; the latter was a clanking gunner during the games Memphis played the Wolves last years. Navarro also doesn’t play defense.

    * Finally, I’m going to use a comment by Strib writer Rachel Blount on Sunday to air a pet peeve of mine regarding writers who obviously either don’t like pro hoops or don’t understand pro hoops feeling free to parade their ignorance. Blount is hardly the biggest offender. In fact, in her piece, titled "U.S. stars also are slam-dunk ambassadors," she made the salient point that the Olympics benefit from the absence of the pro sports sideshow (she calls it NBA, but all major team sports have it); the stupid skits and contests and announcers and film clips and ads ads ads.

    But then Blount wrote: "They are playing a brand of ball far more entertaining than most NBA games." Well, if you lean on the side of jingoism and enjoy watching Americans outclass the world, yes, it is thoroughly enjoyable. And simply from an aesthetic standpoint, the USA men’s games have been things of beauty. But is this really preferable to the NBA? Would you want nothing but all-star games in all the sports that are played? Do we want to see Canada vs Russia or the Czech Republic in hockey, or a Red Wings-Stars finals?

    Blount elaborates, saying "The real appeal of this group shines when Chris Paul dishes off to Carmelo Anthony on the baseline for a jam, when Dwyane Wade strips the ball away to start a fast break, when Tayshaun Prince lofts a pass over the rim for LeBron James to throw it through." Well, wait a minute. Did Blount watch Chris Paul during the regular season or playoffs at all last season? Because he dished for more jams per game in those contests than he has in the Olympics. And why Wade stripping the ball from a hapless Angolan is somehow preferable to James Posey stripping Lamar Odom in the Finals, for example, is beyond me.

    Yeah, I know, she said "most" NBA games. But it still amounts to "Olympics are better hoops than the NBA," and is part of what has become stupid conventional wisdom among the general public over the past 20 years. It happens to the NBA far more than other team sports. How many times have we all heard–"I don’t watch the NBA until–insert either "second half," "fourth quarter," or "final few minutes" here–because that’s when they really start trying." That’s like me saying I don’t watch baseball until the 9th inning because that’s when the teams insert their best pitchers, or I don’t watch football until the final few minutes because that’s when teams really start trying to score with long passes and less time between plays.

    Long long ago, Rachel Blount covered the Minnesota Timberwolves as a beat for the Strib. She wasn’t terrible but she didn’t distinguish herself and didn’t last long. She went and found things that were more enjoyable for her to write–like the Olympics.

  • Hazing The Greeks

    Yeah, I could watch this team 365 days a year.

    Take the world’s greatest athletes (anyone wanna debate that?) motivate them with patriotism and professional pride, give at least two of the most talented–"LeBronze" and the prematurely discounted Dwyane Wade–an extra nudge toward the need for retribution, and then settle in with your fingers on the pause and slo-mo buttons. Game on. Game over.

    After watching the US Olympic men’s basketball team dismantle Greece Thursday morning, the idea of this incredibly deep and star-studded team needing to veer away from their strengths and conform to conventional Olympic wisdom seems laughable. For example, perhaps the only time this squad should deploy a zone defense is if an opponent is totally on fire and you need a box-and-one or diamond scheme to deter him. Because right now, I don’t envision an international team that can pass or dribble its way through the USA’s extended and tenacious man-to-man schemes on a consistent basis.

    The best thing that could have happened Thursday was for Jason Kidd to pick up three quick fouls in the first two minutes and sit until garbage time. Because as Doug Collins pointed out, when the US team has Williams and Paul guarding the perimeter, and a vengeful Wade ballhawking to boot, your defense off the bench is your best defense, especially with Bosh showing strong on the pick and roll. That leaves Coach K with the option of LeBron or Kobe–with the carrot of bountiful transition dunks and assists–as the fifth.

    What Wade did today was put himself back in the LeBron-Kobe conversation about who is the best player in basketball today. As he was before his injuries, Wade is an intriguing third, and might embolden his followers to try and bump him up if he continues to play defense like he has in these games. I know it is sacrosanct to make comparisons with the original Dreamers, but how amazing is this USA ballclub that they can actually ambush opponents with a guy like Wade? I mean, Greece can honestly say they didn’t really see Wade coming; they were too busy preparing for LeBron and Kobe.

    The play of the game was the second quarter steal by Wade and his immediate dish–in the course of saving the ball from going out of bounds–to Kobe for the alley oop. Wade dropped another gleaming dime shortly after that. Then LeBron had a steal where he shrugged off a Greek trying to mug him before he touched the ball, grabbed the ball, and did a backwards over-the-head slam after bringing the rock below his waist. Then Chris Bosh scored twice in transition in the final minutes of the half. No disrespect to Dwight Howard, who had his best game defensively when the team needed him most, but Bosh is as good on D in the low block, better at showing on the pick and roll, and light years better at catching and finishing in transition.

    The play of Bosh and Wade in particular have made me look smart (when in fact I don’t know the international game at all) by claiming that the USA doesn’t need to load up from long-distance, just shut down the opposing treys and get hoops in transition. When the defense is as good as it has been thus far, and you’ve got guys elevating their passing, like Wade, and finishing, like Bosh, it’s go-go all the time. Wade hit 17 of his first 20 shots of the tournament.

    Now comes Spain, which has the Gasol boys and Calderon at the point (and how psyched should Raptors fans be that their two best players, Calderon and Bosh, are boosting their confidence and reputations in the heightened competition?). I think this is a game when a nonstop mucker like Boozer might be effective for 10-12 minutes on Gasol(s). I’d also put Deron Williams on Calderon–certainly not Kidd: Calderon was a whopping +64 in the two games he played (and won) against New Jersey while Kidd was still there last season. In 35 minutes of international competition this Olympics, Kidd has not attempted a shot, his A/TO rate is 4/5 (despite being fourth lowest in playing time, he is tied for the team lead in turnovers and the rest of the team is 54/35 in A/TO), and his aging reactions make him foul prone on defense. Clearly, he is in the starting lineup out of sentiment right now, an awkward situation. But if Spain really is the game of the tournament, Williams ought to get the start.

    What’s really scary–and eminently enjoyable–about this USA team is that they are romping and whomping while Kobe is clanking. Bryant is a woeful 3-20 from outside the arc. Ironically, the one he hit today was a legit NBA three, and if you’ll recall, distance doesn’t make much difference to him so long as he’s within about 26 feet. Which means, if anything, he ought to conserve his bombs for the really long shots where his dead-eye for treys is more practiced.

    But the story of the tournament for the USA thus far is Wade and Bosh, in that order. LeBron has been utterly magnificent, in a coin flip with Wade over who has been the best player. But we all expected that from LeBron. Wade, by contrast, hasn’t looked this good since the ’06 playoffs, and his defense is much better now than it was then.

    Bosh has the international game down; he’s swatting the ball when it is around the cylinder more aggressively than others, and figuring out what charges and flops most impress the Olympic refs. And he gives the raft of penetrators–Paul, Williams, Kobe, LeBron, Wade–an appealing target. I wouldn’t start Bosh against Spain because he’s such good energy off the bench and a perfect sub tandem with Wade and Paul, but I think he can beat Gasol both in transition and on the low block. And, in a bit of side soap opera, Kobe has a chance to kick Gasol’s butt after the latter’s lackluster performance against the Celts in the Finals.

    So, three games in, Wade leads the team in scoring and steals, LeBron has the most assists and blocks and minutes-played and is the second leading scorer, Melo has the team rebounding lead by one over Bosh, and is subtly sliding into the role of a 6-10 paint warrior (kudos to him). The top six in minutes–LeBron, Kobe, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Melo and then Wade, are all wreaking havoc on defense. The backcourt performers for Greece appeared unflappable when the game began. They were simply ground down.

    The only thing that hasn’t been answered is how does this USA ballclub respond when it’s in trouble.

    We may never have to find out.

  • US Olympians Bury China in Hoops Opener

    The opening game for the USA Olympic basketball team was close early–tied even, at 29-29, nearly halfway through the second quarter–almost exclusively because the US were missing their three-pointes while their Chinese opponents were knocking them down. But nobody seriously thought this would be a ballgame, and the 101-70 tally seemed an appropriate gauge of the gap between the two squads.

    It’s been fascinating to watch the way this team has been put together, and in particular, interesting to note that Mike Kryzewski of Duke, along with Jimmy Boeheim of Syracuse, are alloting the minutes. I’ve never partaken of the Coach K Kool-Aid, but there is a certain symmetry in him starting Jason Kidd over Chris Paul and Deron Williams at the point–the overrated coach showing deference to the player I consider the most overrated player in the NBA. Anyone with two eyes can see that Kidd is a distant third in terms of both talent and fit on this squad, and yet he gets the opening minutes instead of two much better, much classier players.

    Even Doug Collins couldn’t help but comment that the Chinese weren’t even bothering to guard Kidd, who not only didn’t shoot in his 13 minutes on the floor, but didn’t drop a single dime and tied for the team lead in turnovers (with Kobe, who played more than twice as many minutes). Throw in aged footwork on defense and the mystery deepens as to why Paul and D-Will hug the pine at the onset.

    In fact, the inability of Dwight Howard to develop a shooting touch around the rim, coupled with the emergence of Chris Bosh (both today and in the preliminary games), and the return to health of Dwyane Wade, makes the USA second unit a better ballclub than its starting five–and that’s with Lebron and Kobe, who both have been marvelous, among that first quintet. Take away Lebron and Kobe and you’ve got an over-the-hill Kidd, a still surprisingly raw Howard, and the always questionable Melo Anthony.

    By contrast, the bench can run out Bosh, who is easily the most active of the USA bigs; the suddenly resurgent Wade, who didn’t miss a shot today, bagging a team-high 19 points on 7 FGs and 5 FTS; either Deron Williams, who played with a fabulous spark today, and/or Chris Paul, who owns the fastest hands of any backcourt defender; and the option of Michael Redd (if you need to stretch opposing defenses) or Tayshaun Prince (if you need a shutdown defender). Keep Lebron or Kobe out there with that group and start engraving the names on the gold medal trophy right now.

    I will say this for K and the NBA elite–they are playing with an appropriately monster emphasis on defense, including the point guards not named Kidd guarding the dribble, the bigs and swingmen deterring penetration (Lebron had three blocks today) and the boxing out to prevent putbacks. China had the 7-6 Yao and the 7 foot Yi (who looked out of shape and often indifferent, and was called out by the announcers as the bad actor in contrast to the wet kisses Yao was slathered with) and still got outrebounded, while compiling an assist-to-turnover ratio of 12/18. Much has been made of the USA adapting to the international style of play, which relies less on low post scoring and more on perimeter treys (the line is nearly three feet closer in than the NBA). But I don’t care so much if the USA can hit the outside jumper, so long as they can defend it properly. Some of that comes from wearing down opponents with their superior depth and transitional quickness–the Chinese were much less accurate from outside in the second half.

    For its part, I thought the USA shot too many treys. They were 7-24 from behind the arc, and 31-36 from two-point land. Got that? To match their scoring efficiency on two-pointers, they would have had to have nailed 20 (and two-thirds of a 21st) out of 36 treys. That 86% from inside the arc came against one of the taller teams in these Olympics to boot. I don’t mind Michael Redd jacking up seven treys (he made 3), but Kobe doesn’t need to shoot 7, not when he can (and did) break down almost any single defender and have a superstar waiting for the dish and an open look.

    Another quibble: the interior passes are too tightly bunched. Don’t try to thread the needle in transition when you are four feet away from each other; take it to the hole or dish it to the perimeter or to midrange jump shooters–especially when Howard and his mediocre footwork and lousy shooting touch are the beneficiaries of pounding it inside. Both Bosh and Carlos Boozer looked better equipped to finish.

    Bottom line, however, is that this is just a fabulous team. People can yelp about the original Dream Team all they want; these guys would give that crew a run for their money. I know, I know–the proof remains to be put in the pudding. But remember, the caliber of international basketball has improved by leaps and bounds since the original Dream Teamers. Watch how this USA squad wears each and every one of its better-quality opponents out in the days ahead, and, hype aside, make your own judgment.

  • The Return of the Twins Roundtable

    Those of you familiar with this site may remember the series of roundtables I held last year between myself, steadfast Twins fan, along with Rake and ex-City Pages baseball columnist Brad Zellar, and former Twin Cities Reader sports columnist (and current Minnpost media columnist) David Brauer. Zellar and Brauer are my kind of conversationalists: They’re both modest about their extensive knowledge of the game and extremely good writers.

    I began this conversation early Wednesday, before the Twins salvaged the third of a three-game series with the Mariners.

    Britt Robson: First of all I want to apologize for not inviting you fine gentlemen in earlier to talk about what has been a weirdly but fabulously successful 2008 season by the Twins, relative to the vague rebuilding and stitched together shenanigans that accompanied their off-season. As I write this, the Twins are just a game back of the White Sox (two in the loss column) and have dropped a pair to the lowly Mariners. They have been remarkably resilient with what I believe is inferior talent compared to the White Sox and Tigers, if not the decimated Indians and the ever-buried Royals. As one who, after a fantastic bout of prognostication in ’07, has gotten just about everything wrong in baseball this year (I big-upped the Mariners and Blue Jays, ignored the Rays, called the Cardinals for last place, etc.), I want to begin by deferring to both of you on the central questions of the day.

    How have the Twins been able to remain in contention this season? (You can buttress your points with numbers or just your powers of observation, since I know you both have watched a lot of Twins this year.) How likely is it that they will continue to remain in contention? What surprising trend, either positive or negative, is most likely to be reversed in the last 50 games of the season? And finally, where do you see this ballclub after the dust settles in early October?

    Have at it, and, as always, thanks for participating.

    Brad Zellar: How have the Twins managed to remain in contention this year? Well, shoot, that right there is the million dollar question. There have been a butcher’s handful of moments so far when I’ve turned off the TV or walked away from a game thinking the wheels had finally come off for good: the Neshek injury, the bombarding in Chicago the first week in June, the sweep in Boston in early July, and the miserable series at Yankee Stadium (for which I was, alas, in attendance).

    You mention the "remarkable resilience," and that really has been the hallmark of this team –a short memory and the ability to just keep battling back (not to mention a flukish but nonetheless impressive team batting average with runners in scoring position). Based on my own email and the noxious comment boards all over the net, I didn’t ever expect this to happen, but at some point I’d think people would start to appreciate the job Ron Gardenhire and his staff (particularly Rick Anderson) do year in and year out. I’m not even sure how they do it, or what their magic consists of, but my suspicion is that it has a lot to do with creating and sustaining chemistry and a cohesive team identity. When you look at this team on paper, and compare it to Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland, there’s just no way in hell they should be where they are right now.

    They got a huge break this season when everybody else in the division stumbled out of the gate. The sustained early mediocrity allowed the Twins to sort of retool on the fly and sort things out. Yahoos can bitch all they want, but Livan Hernandez was a good pick-up; his ten wins and –more importantly– his 140 innings saved their ass in the first half. Other than him, though, it’s hard to point to a single one of their off-season acquisitions as a key to their success thus far. Gomez certainly set a different tone early on, and I think they needed a guy in that clubhouse with his sort of balls-to-the-wall knucklehead enthusiasm, but the truth is he hasn’t been a very productive player. The surprising emergence of guys like Casilla, Buscher, and Span has been crucial (and the Casilla injury is another one of those moments, I guess, where it just seemed like one blow too many for this team to recover from), but they haven’t had any contribution to speak of from Cuddyer, Lamb, Everett, and Monroe have been (pretty much) busts, and the bullpen has been dodging bullets since Neshek went down.

    Yet there they still are, hanging around first place. The young(ish) starting pitchers have all been nothing if not gutty, but my concern at the moment is that this is essentially the first go-round for all of them, and they look like they might be hitting the wall. The Twins aren’t going to get 200 innings out of any of them, which is going to put additional pressure on a bullpen that doesn’t look like it can handle any additional pressure. Liriano is pretty much being forced into the role of staff savior, and it’s going to be interesting and little bit scary to see how he handles that pressure down the stretch.

    All that said, this really is Morneau and Mauer’s team, and if Morneau in particular can keep coming up with big hits, and if they can figure out how to keep from imploding on the road, and if they can somehow dredge up a couple warm bodies for the bullpen and hang around into September when the schedule gives them a little breather, I believe they can win the division. I just don’t have a whole lot of faith in that White Sox team.

    So: this is a team looking at a lot of ifs right now, but it’s been that way since April, and I don’t know anybody who expected them to be where they are at the moment. If they do somehow manage to find their way into the playoffs, of course, I have every expectation that they’ll get smothered in a hurry.

    David Brauer: Here are a few ideas I’ve been playing with:

    1. The Twins have a core – a two-person core, but still – that is producing bigtime. That’s Morneau and Mauer of course. Morneau is just a hair off his MVP BA/OBP/SLG stats, hitting .370 with runners in scoring position, and thus Mauer is scoring about seven runs every 10 games, a full run above his career best. You’re talking two guys in the top 10 for walks-strikeout ratio, so you’re getting a ton of baserunners or productive outs.

    2. The Twins are one run away from being second in the league in runs scored! That’s amazing, and it’s clearly the most surprising positive trend. The team is still over .300 in RISP; Morneau, but Mauer is right on his ass at .356, throw in Buscher (.344), Casilla (.322), Span (.320); even the oft-criticized Young is nearly at .300 (.298). And then there’s Little Nicky Punto! The team leader at .375! I mean, read those names and figures again and you’ll see why NO ONE saw this coming, and why a complete collapse is possible. But while it might just be a stopped watch, doesn’t Joe Vavra deserve a tertiary mention w/Gardy and Anderson, Brad?

    3. Hernandez did great for innings pitched, and it was also time for him for him to go, as I think Britt noted in a previous Rake piece. My unsubstantiated recollection is the young starters have been remarkably consistent going at least 5 innings. Yeah, they’ll probably break down, and I think the pen is the single reason we’d miss the playoffs, but my god, that’s huge. And Nathan. Never forget Nathan.

    4. Saw an old 60 Minutes with Bill James last Sunday and he repeated his claim about players’ primes being 25-29. I realize some of these guys have limited headroom, and some potential talents like Young, Slowey, Span and Casilla are, well, too young (the latter three by just a year), but again look at the tape: Morneau (27), Mauer (25), Buscher (27), Baker (27), Blackburn (27), Perkins (25), Kubel (26), Harris (28), Neshek (27). There’s something there.

    5. This has been stated before, but by all rights the pen (save Nathan) should suck, especially without N
    eshek. Instead, it’s only sucked on the road. That’s half the battle, I guess, but to answer Britt’s question, this is the trend that will be reversed negatively. It beats out the RISP regression to the mean.

    Things that have bummed me out:

    1. Young’s defense in left. People forget he’s making the switch from right, and the Dome has a much bigger expanse in left that folks realize, but still, it’s been the top frustration-maker for me this year, next to Gomez always swinging at the low-and-away pitch.

    2. Gomez always swinging at the low-and-away pitch. It’s be number one, but he’s 22 fer chrissake, and he was rushed.

    3. Cuddyer. He’ll be 30 next year, by the way.

    Where do I see ’em finishing. Fuck the White Sox. Fuck pessimism. First place.

    Britt Robson: Great stuff from both of you, and comprehensive enough that all I can do is counterpunch.

    I can buy Morneau and Mauer. I am particularly enjoying Morneau more than ever this season. He’s got a signature swing–it’s like he doesn’t let go of the bat with either hand on the follow through, so it looks at if he is taking off his shirt or something at the end, and, as often as not, the ball is flying into the left-center field gap. This is both a good and a bad thing, however–his walks and doubles are up, but his dingers are down. His OBP is the best of his career, but his slugging percentage is well off his 2006 MVP peak. In fact both Mauer and Morneau hit for more power in ’06 and consequently both had better OPS numbers two years ago than they do now. So here is my dilemma: The Twins won 96 games in ’06 with Mauer and Morneau each enjoying career years, even taking ’08 into consideration. This season, the Twins are on pace for about 90 wins. So somehow, the supporting cast is close to matching up with the Hunters and Santanas of yore–and that was also the year Cuddyer knocked in 109 runs, and Liriano bagged a dozen wins with an ERA below 2.

    It isn’t the pitching. In 2006, the ERA was an impressive 3.95, and that’s with Carlos Silva throwing 180 innings of 5.94. You can cite Santana, half a year of lights out Liriano, a typically stellar Nathan, and Dennis Reyes was unhittable as the lefty specialist. This year, despite all the heartwarming kids, the ERA has jumped to 4.36, 8th in the league, but behind only the White Sox, whose staff is imploding, in the Central Division. So, that’s part of it I guess–an uneven schedule really helps when the division sucks.

    But it is also the hitting. Despite worse on-base and slugging percentages than in 2006, the Twins are scoring slightly more runs per game, and, as both of you noted, a lot of it has to do with clutch hitting. You’ve covered that territory, so I want to bring up a name that both of you barely mentioned: Jason Kubel. Now I’ve been down on Kubes for awhile now, in part out of perversity because so many die-hard fans kept lauding his potential, but now, surprise surprise, his 16 dingers are only two behind Morneau for the team lead (in 110 fewer at bats), his 57 rbis are likewise second to Morneau, and his slugging percentage is better than Mauer’s and, again, second only to Morneau. I know he doesn’t show up in the clutch hitting category, but the situations wouldn’t be clutch for others if he hadn’t knocked in 57 runs in just 96 games and 321 at-bats.

    Brad mentioned Span and Casilla. A month or so ago, I ridiculed Jim Souhan for suggesting Span be given more playing time, and that Punto supplant Harris at short. Well, both Span and Punto have made him look good. Span’s *slugging percentage* of .469 ranks behind only Morneau and Kubel, by the way.

    David, you mention a disenchantment with Young in left. I reluctantly agree that he is not fleet afoot, a weakness compounded by the slow jumps he gets on the ball off the bat. His arm is great–I’ve seen him gun down runners at second from the left field corner on two occasions live this season. But his range–not very good. Plus the gossip among media members around the team is not positive toward Delmon Young–whether that’s the media talking to themselves or word on the QT from coaches or other inside personnel is unclear. But more than one person with decent relations inside the Twins organization has not been kind in their assessment of Young’s work habits. My position has been that I trust the Twins scouts, and if they thought he was worth Garza, he must be pretty good. But I’m beginning to waver.

    My pet peeve is the defense of Harris. Almost every game there is a ball I became accustomed to seeing the shortstop get to that now eludes Harris’s grasp. Sometimes he knocks it down, as happened the other night in Seattle, but they are never close enough to be errors because Harris’s range doesn’t put him in a position to make an error.

    As I write this, the Twins have beaten the M’s, with Span the hero, robbing Beltre of a homer, plus clearing the bases with a triple down the line. You guys both say they take the division pennant. I say it is the White Sox by default in a very weak division. But I like a team with Gomez, Span and Casilla, a team who should have at least two capable starters among the four kids (and I’m not putting Liriano in that mix). Gardy, Anderson, Vavra, give them all raises. It’s been a hell of a lot of fun, and coming in second or third (I keep waiting, like Godot, for the Tigers) is alright with me.

    [continued Thursday morning]

    In light of Span’s heroics Wednesday night, Gardy says he’s batting leadoff and playing every day, even when Cuddyer gets back. So, who sits? Since Young, Gomez and Cuddyer are all righties, it’s not a platoon situation. You don’t want to revisit the experience of Cuddy at third, even though it would work into a nice platoon with Buscher, do you? The problem is that Young is the only one of the four with left field experience, even if, as David points out, he hasn’t exactly starred in those spacious confines. Having already shifted Span from center to right, do you go with another shift of the kid to left? Because nobody on the roster can play right like Cuddyer, who has a gun for an arm and knows the soft baggie carom by heart. If Cuddy plays and it isn’t at third, it needs to be RF. I don’t think you can sit Gomez except on occasion; the kid’s confidence is too erratic, which is to say fragile. But if you sit Young, you risk messing with a guy who already has questionable makeup, a guy you traded a potential ace for, a guy who turns 23 next month.

    Despite Gardy’s comments, I chicken out and play all four about the same amount. You need Young, Span and Gomez for the future, but I have a lot of faith in Cuddyer’s defense and think he’ll come around at the plate. You can rest some legs and maybe even get some RH at-bats out of the DH position against lefties, although that sits Kubel, whose numbers I’ve already cited. It’s a pleasant problem to have, but still a problem.

    As for the bullpen, I like Guerrier better than Crain, and have actually liked what I’ve seen out of Breslow in short spurts. I can see making Breslow the lefty specialist and trying Reyes for more extended outings, meaning against more righties. I don’t have much faith in Bass, and endorse the rumored notion that he flip places with Bonser and become the blowout early relief guy, giving Boof more chances to make an impact later in the game. And yeah, I’d give Nathan more 8th inning chances, especially do-or-die situations with men on base. He is the best closer in franchise history, and flat-out the best pticher on this ballclub right now. If it means Crain, Guerrier or Reyes has to finish the 9th with a two or three run lead on occasion, fine. Give the ball to Joe when the game in on the line.

    Last, but certainly not least, let’s remember that these meaningful games in August, and hopefully September, are all a bonus, and should not distract from the main mission of building this club for the future. How does that square with playing Cuddyer over the kids and using Natha
    n in the 8th? Good question. My only defense is that I think Cuddyer should be a part of this team’s long-term future–I like his defense and his attitude and believe he will hit. And I don’t think depriving Guerrier or Crain of opportunities to blow ballgames exactly hurts their development; nor do I believe the slightly longer stints will affect Nathan’s arm any. If it does, then he should go back to 9th inning only duties.

    Bottom line, I think the Twins are in an excellent position to wheel and deal at the end of this season. Let’s get those ace scouts together in a room and let them decide whether or not they made a mistake on Young, which of the quintet of young starters has the most limited long-term upside, and what pieces might be pried from other ballclubs in exchange for one of our outfielders, our young starters, or even our high-minors guys (as much as the team likes Jason Pridie, for example, is there any room for him up in Minnesota?).

    So, to toss the baton over to you guys: How do you allocate outfield/DH minutes? How do you align your bullpen duties? And how do you finesse winning now versus building for the future?

    David Brauer: Gents, there is no doubt in my mind someone fast should be playing left, be it Gomez or Span. Given our lack of righty DH, Young can suck up some of those ABs, and frankly, with his gun, should get some time in right, even though Cuddyer is great out there. I’d sit Gomez more, Young more, and Cuddy more to make it work.

    In other words, I agree with Britt.

    Kubel hits righties better than Young (makes sense given Kubel is a lefty and Young isn’t) so you can’t dump Jason to make it work.

    Brad would know the Cuddy-at-third thing better than me – is he permanently that bad? If you’re talking trade, you’re thinking anyone but Span. Go-Go, fan enthusiasm aside, is the most tempting dumpee, since he has value but is the most iffy. Young would fetch something but that would make the Garza trade too loathsome. Cuddy is the obvious choice to go, but poor performance + vets contract makes that hard. That’s why I’d try to find a modified, ¾-time platoon here.

    Don’t trust Breslow as more than a spot guy. Reyes is intriguing – he’s not back to his ’06 form, but he’s improved a lot from ’07. Did you know he pitched 108 innings for KC in ’04 (and had his worst professional season for San Diego the following year)?

    I think the Twins are so appropriately young (see my previous post) that they have wiggle room to go for it. A season like this may not come along next year. But it has to be picking up pen pitching.

    The countervailing view is that this team is appropriately young, no real threat to the Angels and Bosox this year, and MORE of the core will be in the 25-29 honeyspot next year.

    Brad Zellar: The outfield/DH situation with Cuddyer coming back is, as people are fond of saying, a good problem, but, all the same, it’s a problem I’d just as soon the Twins didn’t have, because I don’t see any truly satisfying answer. I’d much rather they had a couple more solid arms for the bullpen, or a true stud at third base.

    Regarding Span, he’s been a refreshing blast to watch, but I’d issue a warning about sample size (143 at bats). There is nothing –not a damn thing– in the guy’s utterly undistinguished minor league record prior to this year that would indicate that he’s capable of sustaining his current level of performance. Remember how excited everybody was about Gomez in the first couple months of the season? Remember that Span was up in April, when he his line was .258, .324, and .258 (that was more in line with his minor league projections). Granted, he did seem to have a breakthrough of sorts when he went back to Rochester and put up some terrific numbers, but still, the previous five seasons were what they were, and they were no where near what we’ve seen in his second stint with the club.

    I think Cuddyer’s a major league hitter. I think he has to play somewhere, and I’m pretty sure that somewhere isn’t third base (or –God forbid– second). The guy’s a right fielder. I also think they need to keep finding ways to get Kubel at bats. It’s time they let him take his rips against both righties and lefties, and find out how good he really is. If I was writing out the lineup cards he’d be my DH 80% of the time the rest of the way.

    I wonder why people don’t cut Delmon Young as much slack as they do Gomez? He’s been frustrating at times (and, yes, too many adventures in left field), but he’s essentially the same age as Carlos, and put up extremely promising numbers last year at Tampa Bay. I don’t know about the rumors regarding his work ethic or manners with the press, but I suspect from what I’ve seen that he’s a pretty good teammate, and my impression is that he’s been pressing and is going through an adjustment. I really believe he’s going to be a terrific player, once he learns to relax and stop listening to so many different people.

    I guess the one thing that sort of surprises me about this discussion in particular, and about the discussions that have swirled around this team all year, is the prevailing attitude about Gomez. People are worried about his confidence? For shit sake, he’s been doing a pretty good job of destroying that without a whole lot of help from anyone else. How high should the confidence be of a guy who’s hitting .257 with a .291 OBP (and 17 walks and 105 Ks)? This team is in a pennant race; you want to build the kid’s confidence, sit him down or send him to Rochester. I’m confident he’s going to be a player, but he’s really not a major league hitter right now. His value even when he was scuffling earlier was his speed, but as the season’s gone along he’s gotten worse (and more tentative) as a base stealer, and worse as a bunter (which is really saying something).

    I don’t know, maybe I’m nuts, but he seems like the plainly obvious choice to lose at bats, at least until Span cools off or somebody else comes up lame.

    I agree with Britt that if they’re going to stay in this thing and keep the bullpen from imploding entirely, they’re going to have to stretch out Reyes, get more innings out of Breslow, be a bit more flexible with Nathan (before his eighth-inning blip in Seattle the other night, I was agitating for them to turn him into Goose Gossage for the last couple months), and flip the roles of Bass and Bonser. I don’t ever want to see Bass come into a game to protect a 7-6 lead again, and I’m really not comfortable seeing him protect any sort of lead. Let him eat innings in blowouts, if need be. And please assure me that we’re going to see a few more warm bodies for the pen come September (at the latest).

    I’m not worked up about Morneau’s homerun falloff, if only because I can tell he’s becoming a better hitter. Teams are pitching him much more carefully, and he’s learning to be patient and take what he can get. He’s working the count and punishing mistakes, and he’s also had some huge hits on what were pretty damn good pitches (he’s gotten good at driving that down-and-away pitch). I think this development bodes well for him becoming one of the truly elite hitters in the game –power, average, on base percentage– and he’s already almost there.

    As for Harris’ defense, I was railing about it from the first series of the season, but at this point I guess we’re going to have to live with it, and he’s at least demonstrated he can hit a little bit.

    I’m standing my ground and predicting that they’re gonna win the Central.

    Maybe.

    Because I want them to.

     

  • Livan's Last Start For Awhile? And The Rockets Get Artest

    Those of you who claim to have known the Twins would be playing for first place on the next-to-last night in July, please stop lying.

    Other commitments prevented me from going down to the Dome for Slowey’s shutout on Monday and the marvelous manufacture of five runs in the fifth en route to a 6-5 win on Tuesday. But tonight was the Twins’ opportunity to move ahead of the Pale Hose, and for veteran hurler Livan Hernandez to quiet the horde hollaring for him to be replaced in the rotation by Francisco Liriano. I’ve got some sentiment on behalf of Hernandez. First of all, through the first six weeks of the season, he went 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA, enabling pitching coach Rick Anderson to sort through his youngsters with a little more patience knowing that he had a veteran stopper on the mound to prevent things from going too far off track. That by itself made Hernandez a better investment than Sidney Ponson and Russ Ortiz combined the previous season. Second, although Hernandez has been increasingly hit harder, he’s been eating a lot of innings–he’s got 143 and 2/3, with Nick Blackburn’s 127 next-most and the rest of the starters not yet at 100. That means if the Twins stay in the pennant race and need to tax their young arms, they may be able to do so (with the possible exception of Blackburn) without worrying about blowing them out. Glen Perkins has never pitched more than 132 innings in a season at any level and Blackburn’s career high is 160. Baker has gone 190 and between Rochester and Minnesota last year, Slowey reached 200. With 55 games left to play for the five-man rotation and hopes that they’d average at least six innings per start, that’s an extra 66 innings apiece (if they each start 11 times). Baker and Slowey can handle it, Perkins, maybe. But without Livan’s 144 (minus 1/3), a bunch of pitchers in their mid-20s get pushed, and the odds of arm injuries rise.

    Hernandez gets by on guile, not a bad role model for a bunch of hurlers without mediocre stuff (with the exception of Perkins). I know I enjoyed watching him befuddle the young Diamondbacks when I went to the Dome late last month. Plus, on a more personal level, as a blogger on the back side of middle age, I’ve got some empathy for an aging guy trying to wheedle his way along in a young man’s game. And a part of me resents picking up my latest Sports Illustrated and reading:

    Whether because of an egregious error in evaluating Livan Hernandez or decisions of a financial nature, the Twins have continued to start Hernandez (a 5.31 ERA and fewer than a strikeout every two innings, despite his 10-7 record through Sunday) even as Liriano (10 straight victories) destroys Triple A hitters in the International League. According to Baseball Prospectus’s projections, replacing Hernandez with Liriano would save the Twins 15 to 20 runs down the stretch, making them two games better in a division race that may well be decided by less than that.

    Well then, there you go: Put a bullet into Livan and ship him off to the glue factory and you might win a pennant. Because the bean counters figure 15 to 20 runs, which by their pythagoreardon berenguergringo formula comes out to two games.

    Yeah, I personally resent it, but I also get the Baseball Prospectus yearbook every spring and have come to admire their scholarship, not least because they are often accurate. I was hoping to catch them badly underestimating one of the Twins pitchers who have come through for the club this season, but their thumbnail sketches of Slowey, Baker, Perkins and Blackburn are all pretty solid.

    More to the point, Hernandez got shellacked tonight: 5 runs, 9 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings’ work. The Dome has been his saving grace (he was 8-1 at home before tonight) and he’s generally been able to battle back from a wretched inning to put together a little mow-through-the-order rhythm. But not tonight. Carlos Quentin crushed a pitch for a line drive homer to left center in the first inning, then cleared the bases with a three-run double (again to left center) in the 4th, prompting manager Ron Gardenhire to say "he was missing [with his pitches] but mostly to one guy."

    Except that seven of the other eight guys in the White Sox lineup also got hits off Livan in those 4 innings, and none of them were cheap. He pitched out of a couple of jams to hold it to just 5 runs, and his ERA–at 3.90 in May, remember–is now 5.48, and his 6-1 record has slipped to 10-8. Despite the fact that I think Liriano remains an extreme injury risk (unless they have done wonders with his mechanics down on the farm) and should be traded now, while his perceived value is still pretty high, it is hard not to endorse the notion that he should be brought up and thrown into the rotation if he’s not going to be dealt, and that Hernandez should slide into the roles of long relief and informal pitching coach.

    Most of the time after a game, I listen to what Gardy has to say and then split. But tonight, I thought it would be instructive to get Hernandez’s reaction to getting shelled at a particularly delicate moment regarding his near-future role on the squad. I waited patiently while the cluster of beat writers asked him all sorts of questions, all the while ignoring the elephant in the room. They asked him about Quentin. They noted that he seemed to get upset with some of the ump’s calls and wanted to know if that were true. They asked if the size of the crowd–over 42,000, the largest non-opening day crowd since the final day of the 2006 season–affected his performance. Hernandez was unyielding, saying he made a couple of bad pitches to Quentin, that he doesn’t get nervous, that he wasn’t frustrated, etc.

    Here was a guy who everybody knows is going to get yanked from the rotation sooner rather than later unless things change, soon and dramatically, in his favor. He just crapped out and reporters were asking if it was because of the size of the crowd! So I stepped in it. "You’ve heard all the talk about Liriano I’m sure. Did that have any effect on you mentally as you pitched tonight?" I asked. He looked daggers into my eyes, his mouth somewhere between a sneer and a smirk, said something to the effect of, "Okay, that’s enough," and turned his back on the throng. Interview over.

    Now Hernandez doesn’t know me from Adam, so I get his pique at some new guy jumping his case. The question would have been better coming from someone else (and perhaps then would have been more elegantly worded). But the question had to come from somebody. And by turning his back on us, Hernandez answered it.

    People who call Ron Artest crazy aren’t exactly lacking for anecdotal evidence. My favorite Artest moment was less than three weeks into the 2004-05 season, when he told his team that he wanted to take some time off to promote his new music record. Yeah, that sounds like a plan. Of course less than a week after that, he went up into the stands and started wailing on a guy who he (mistakenly) thought threw ice at him (it was another guy, of course), precipitating the largest, ugliest, fans-players brawl in NBA history. The domestic abuse and animal neglect charges, and the destroying of a television camera, etc, etc, are also on the books. But I give him a pass for getting into a confrontation with Pat Riley, one of the few times when I understood exactly what he was thinking.

    When he wants to be and the planets are alligned, Artest is also an incredible basketball player, especially on defense, where his stuck-on-overrevved motor can change the dynamic of a game. He epitomizes the phrase, "high risk, high reward." And now that the Houston Rockets have acquired him, I can’t imagine a better place for him. Houston is the armpit of America–hot, humid, oily, and unattractive, a huge city that alternately feel like a ceaseless warehouse district and a suburb on steroids. It’s a place without much of an identity–compare it to Dallas, Austin, San Antonio–but craving a winner. Having come from the political cowtown of Sa
    cramento, Artest will enjoy the upgrade in visibility and scale. More than that, he’ll love the chance to play for a winner (and the Rockets will win if Artest doesn’t flip out), and for coach Rick Adelman. According to a story today by the Houston Chronicle‘s fine beat writer, Jonathan Feigen, Artest florished in the 40 games he played under Adelman after being traded from Indiana to Sacramento, where Adelman coached before Houston. Artest was named to the All NBA first defensive team, and offered to donate his salary to the Kings if they kept Adelman (they didn’t). The fact that Ron Artest is happy with his coach is a great first building block, if such a thing is possible in the ever-changing world Artest inhabits. One of the reasons the Kings were willing to let him go for an apparent song–Feigen is reporting the compensation is Bobby Jackson, promising rookie forward Donte Green, next year’s top draft pick and another player yet to be named–is because he had begun berating himself for not opting out of his $7.4 million contract in Sacramento. Kings management wisely gauged that as rumblings from potentially damaging volcano, and peddled him forthwith.

    People have already started to wonder if Artest and shutdown forward Shane Battier are redundant talents. But if you like defense, that is akin to somebody wondering if an art collector’s Monet is now redundant because the collector just purchased a Renoir. No, while Battier and Artest are similar, and have overlapping strengths, the defense they can play together will only seem redundant to the opponents they are smothering.

    Of greater concern is how well Artest will mix with center Yao Ming. The men are polar opposites in terms of temperament. Yao is deferential, overrated on defense, and slow. Artest is egotistical and ball-hungry, overrated on offense and very quick. If they are both Rockets, I think they will move in different orbits. As a longtime Yao hater, I see all the ways Yao’s game could get under Artest’s skin, even as Yao is being accorded his usual global veneration, upping the resentment ante. And we won’t even go into all the ways Artest could be the problem.

    I am falling prey to the trite temptation to make trades for other ballclubs. I believe it is a trade that would make both participants at least co-favorites to win their respective conferences. It won’t happen for a boatload of reasons I won’t go into now (like the commercial power of Yao’s nationality), but it would be of enormous benefit to both teams: Send Yao, the expiring contract of Steve Francis, and a sign-and-trade deal with Dikembe Mutombo to make the sides match, all to Philadelphia in exchange for center Samuel Dalembert and a sign-and-trade contract for Andre Iguodala.

    Philly would have Yao to pair with Elton Brand on the front line, with Mutombo as a backup and Andre Miller still running the point, with emerging scorers like Thaddeus Young in the mix. That is a team that could make some serious noise in the East. Meanwhile, Houston would have a front line of Dalembert, Artest and Battier, with Luis Scola and Carl Landry if you needed to get bigger at the 4, and a backcourt of Iguodala and T-Mac swinging with Rafer Alston at the point. And that is a team that would sit beside the Hornets and the Lakers as monster conference contenders.

    Even if they stand pat, Houston is suddenly very much in the championship conversation. No team in basketball has quality muckers the likes of Artest, Battier, Scola, Landry and Chuck Hayes–that’s sweat equity by the gallon, and doesn’t even include your two superstars. And looking at San Antonio and Dallas right now, they’ll own Texas.

  • Wolves firm up roster; and the hot Cubs-Brewers rivalry

    Wolves Sign Telfair and Gomes

    Both of these deals are far better news than the earlier locking up of Craig Smith for two years. Although the Wolves now have 15 guys under contract for the coming year, Telfair is the only one who could accurately be described as a point guard. Randy Foye is a "combo" guard, more Brandon Roy than Jose Calderon. Nobody will ever accuse Bassy of being able to play any other position.

    The local hype machine tried to portray Al Jefferson as the most pleasant surprise of the package wrought in the KG deal, but Big Al was a distant third on that count behind Telfair and Gomes, in that order. Jefferson put up monster numbers during the second half of his final year in Boston and showed every sign of being the low-post load that appeared wearing #25 last year. His inconsistent and underdeveloped defense was likewise no surprise. Bassy, on the other hand, was almost universally considered an immature bust, his premature career beset by clanking jumpers, lousy on-court decision-making, and a weapons incident that fed the stereotype of a NYC prep star fallen prey to too much playground ball veneration.

    From his first day in Minnesota, Telfair was anything but that guy, proving himself to be nearly as modest off the court as he was industrious, and increasingly sage, on the hardwood. He still couldn’t swish a jumper if his reputation depended upon it (and leave-’em-alone defenses indicated that it did), but his ability to step up and give his teammates a taste of what the various sets in Wittman’s half court system looked like with a true point on the perimeter proved to be invaluable in the development of Jefferson, McCants and the rest of the team’s scorers.

    The Telfair signing feels like a rare bit of good news for those hoping Rashad McCants doesn’t get lost in the personnel shuffle. Bassy and Shaddy always felt like a complementary backcourt duo, and sure enough, Telfair’s plus/minus numbers with McCants are easily better than with anyone else on the perimeter. The Wolves averaged 93 points per 48 with Telfair last season, but that number jumped to 100 pp48 when McCants was riding shotgunner on the wing, without inflating the 103 pp48 the Wolves ceded on D in Telfair’s minutes. One hopes that Foye is paired in the starting lineup with Mike Miller and that Telfair and Shaddy come in together.

    Ryan Gomes was a bit of a surprise only in that you hear about guys doing the "little things," but it is very tough to appreciate until it’s laid out on a daily basis. Gomes was an inconsistent shooter early last year, especially from long range, and he suffered the embarrassment of being the woefully undersized power forward beside Jefferson’s undersized center, but naturally registered no complaint. I’ve extolled his virtues in other fairly recent threads and think whatever Glen Taylor and co. forked over to get him was well spent, so long as it was below the MLE. Gomes provides flexibility, continuity, an easy-going balm in the locker room during a long season. He’s bright and well-spoken with the media and fans, enhancing the image of the star-crossed franchise. And I suspect that he will be thrust in different roles and also see his minutes fluctuate quite a bit–being able to accept that uncertainty without getting sour or mopey is a huge benefit to a ballclub still rapidly and comprehensively building on the fly, without anyone being really certain how things are going to shake out. Put it this way, if Craig Smith is worth $4.8 million over the next two years (more than had been previously reported) than Gomes is worth double that, and is probably receiving less. In contrast with Smith, Bassy’s near-identitical $4.8 m over two years, with a $2.7 m option on a third, is more of a bargain.

    As mentioned earlier, Minnesota now has 15 players signed, with Kevin McHale expressing the opinion that Chris Richard will also join the fold. Presumably this means goodbye to Kirk Snyder, who showed promise last season and should find a spot at the end of a good team’s roster (I’d say the Celts, who remain a little thin and wouldn’t hurt their defensive identity with Snyder on board). I’d say there is also a pretty good chance we won’t see Calvin Booth ever suit up.

    My starting five on July 26 looks like a front line of Collins-Jefferson-Gomes, with Miller and Foye in the backcourt. Kevin Love and Corey Brewer would be my first off the bench, with Collins and either Gomes or Miller sitting, depending on the matchups. Then McCants and Telfair would be in the second wave, with Smith coming in for Jefferson along with Collins to beef up the front line. At crunchtime, I’d seriously consider Foye, McCants and Miller spreading the floor and giving Jefferson room to operate, with Collins, Love, Brewer or Gomes being among the choices for the fifth guy, again depending on the matchup. I’ll try and remember to look back on this in mid-winter and read how silly (or less likely, prescient) that sounds.

    Last but not least on the Wolves for now, while Vegas Summer League doesn’t often mean anything, Brewer’s inconsistency there is a slight cause for concern. It is amazing to me how much personality plays a role in how a player is regarded, more so sometimes than actual performance. You rarely, if ever, hear McCants mentioned by the front office, while the gushing for all the things Brewer supposedly brings to the table remains unabated. But all the talk in the world doesn’t obscure that this is a crucial year for Brewer, who needs to demonstrate that he can parlay great defense against large swingmen like Paul Pierce into a reliable asset–a consistent, kamikaze pace-setter–*and* not be a Telfair-like nonfactor when scoring. If Bowen and Raja Bell truly are the templates, he’s got to learn to stick an open jumper, and have a little nastiness besides. And please, no more Dennis Rodman comparisons. They are somewhat similar in the way they move their feet and try to make a catalytic effect without the ball, but Rodman also happened to be one of the top two or three rebounders in the game during his heyday.

    Cubs and Brewers Fight For A Pennant

    For the first time in my life, I went to Summerfest, Milwaukee’s huge, 10-day music gathering out on the shore at the end of June through the 4th of July. It was a glorious time, as I saw at least a dozen bands in three days/nights that I would have ventured out to see headlining all by their lonesome, climaxing in a stupdenous show by The Roots, who are really featuring a tuba player now, and a guitarist who totally tears it up. It is a long way from when the dual rappers, ?uestlove (the second greatest rock timekeeper in history behind Charlie Watts) and the beatboxer, Raheim, ran the show. Jesse Helms had died just earlier that day, and ?uest gave him his due, noting that he’d vehemently opposed almost every bit of civil rights legislation ever enacted in this country, and finishing off the aside by saying "good riddance" and "rest in peace" in the same sentence. A half-hour later the band was pinwheeling their way through a massive, psychedelic rendition of Dylan’s "Masters of War," which segued into Hendrix’s "Machine Gun." Maybe my best 4th of July ever.

    But I digress. What was particularly noticeable at Summerfest, from a sports standpoint, was the somewhat edgy and yet good-natured bristling that continually took place between fans of the Cubs and Brewers. In late March, I took the great 95-year old blues pianist Pinetop Perkins down from a gig a few miles north of Milwaukee to catch a plane in Chicago (I was writing a Pinetop profile for No Depression magazine) and it struck me how incredibly close these two cities are from each other. As an east coast resident, it reminded me of Baltimore and Washington, or, to a slightly lesser extent, the Boston/NY/Philly triplets. Officially I guess it is 90 miles, but it is a straight shot down the highway and if you press the metal you can go round-trip and spend an entire day at whichev
    er one you are visiting. Vikings fans love to claim this huge rivalry with the Packers, for instance, but anyone who has ever lived near Green Bay tells me that the Bears are the rivalry that matters.

    Anyway, when a Milwaukee DJ introduced the Chicago band Alkaline Trio and half-kiddingly tried to whip up a little Cubs-Brewers frisson, the hefty response he received was eye-opening. From that point on, I began to notice the plethora of both Cubs and Brewers clothing worn by the festival patrons. It was really pretty extraordinary. (And this prompts another digression about sports and Summerfair. The Milwaukee Bucks had a booth at the fest and Yi jerseys were going for $5! Of course Yi is now a New Jersey Net, but that fact makes the dirt-cheap Yi merchandise *more* desireable–I almost bought one, and why not; it costs labout the same as a slice of pizza or a brat. On the other hand, I am not aware of exactly how bad Yi underperformed for the Bucks last year, and whether he contributed to the mightly sense of ennui that wafted off that ballclub whenever I saw them play. I know the Wolves have deeply discounted Ricky Davis merchandise on the gift-shop side of their website, and I would buy a RD jersey for a plugged nickel to give to my worst enemy. The karmic juju would be too dangerous. Okay, back to the Cubs-Brewers.) The drunken yahoos that are the real unofficial logo for any of these big music confabs also enjoyed egging on their rivals, be they Cubs or Brewers fans, whenever there was a moment of quasi-silence in the prevailing din and crush of bodies.

    Then, a few days after I came home, the Brewers acquired ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner CC Sabathia from Cleveland. A day later, the Cubs responded by filching Rich Harden from the A’s. Harden is more injury-prone and less experienced in knowing how to pitch than is Sabathia, but the price the Cubs paid–no prime prospects or on-field starters–was far less than what the Brewers gave up, and the rest of the Cubs rotation is stronger than Milwaukee’s sans CC.

    For some reason I’m giddy over this. The Brewers started becoming one of my favorite teams when they brought up Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder two or three years ago, and then Corey Hart and Ryan Braun. Once they had finally rid themselves of that gasbag Bud Selig and the rest of his dunderheaded family, they drafted and traded smartly and then, after bagging a new stadium, waited for the kids to come through. And now they have. Ben Sheets has stayed healthy enough to start this year’s All Star game for the National League, and with Sabathia gives the Brewers a dual-ace top side to their rotation, one of the key ingredients for going far in the playoffs.

    Sabathia has been phenomenal. A huge kid–large-boned, physically gifted and fat all at the same time–he’s thrown three complete games in his four starts thus far for Milwaukee, with the Brewers winning all four while CC has yielded just 5 runs and struck out 31 (walking just 8) in 33 innings. Meanwhile, Harden likewise has been as good as advertised. He’s fanned 30 batters in just 17 and 1/3 innings in his three starts, while surrendering a measly 8 hits and two runs over that span. The problem, however, is the 17 and 1/3 in three outings. As a power-oriented strikeout pitcher, Harden throws a lot of pitches, and as a chronically injured young hurler, the Cubs have been wise to limit his pitch counts. Unfortunately that makes him much less valuable than Sabathia–a complete game helps your entire pitching staff by resting your bullpen and thus not taxing your other starters should they need to be lifted. Today, for example, Harden gave up only two hits and one run while striking out ten (his fourth straight game in double digit K’s), but the Cubs lost to Florida, 3-2 in extra innings. As gaudy as Harden’s numbers were today, and as much fun as it is to watch him pitch, Chicago’s bullpen still labored seven innings on a day when he was given the ball. By contrast, Sabathia has been relieved for a grand *total* of three innings in his four starts.

    As even casual baseball fans know, the Cubs haven’t won a championship in exactly 100 years, replacing the Red Sox as the quintessential underdog baseball franchise. I don’t have much sympathy for their drought–Wrigley Field is a huge cash cow which the Cubs’ various ownership groups have dutifully and increasingly milked in the past couple of decades. But with the feisty Carlos Zambrano (who got into fisticuffs with his catcher last year) as the rubber-armed ace, and Harden mixing in with former reliever Ryan Dempster and the sharp but risky fly-ball oriented lefty Ted Lilly in the middle of the rotation, rounded out by above-average journeyman Jason Marquis (and with 16-game winner Rich Hill still battling baffling control problems in the minors), the Cubs have a marvelous cadre of starters.

    But the Brewers appear likely to give them a legitimate run for their money. Sheets and Sabathia make them dangerous in any short series (although Sabathia was terrible in his last post season appearances), and the rest of the rotation, while not on a par with the Cubs, isn’t too shabby, with Dave Bush and the young lefty Manny Parra. (If only another talented youngster, Yovani Gallardo, hadn’t gone down with a knee injury in May.)

    The point is, neither the Cubs nor the Brewers (who last went to the World Series in 1982 and have never won it all, although the Milwaukee Braves turned the trick a mere 51 years ago behind Warren Spahn) are dynastic franchises. Both have occasionally spent (and overspent) to try and win, but are a long way from the Yankees and Red Sox. Both have long-suffering fan bases and a wonderful collection of players on their respective rosters. I think they are the two best teams in the National League and wouldn’t be surprised to see them in the NL Championship series in October. Just thinking about Zambrano versus Sabathia and Harden versus Sheets, with hitters like Fielder and Braun for Milwaukee and Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez for the Cubs working for runs…It’s enough to make a hoops freak patient before the opening tap of the 2008-09 NBA season in November.

     

  • Recent Hoops News

    Timberwolves Resign Craig Smith

    This thoroughly minor signing justifiably barely caused a flutter league-wide in the NBA, but smart Wolves fans have a right to wonder why it happened. The Rhino is an undersized power forward on a ballclub that just drafted an undersized center and traded for a journeyman legit center to pair alongside their star power forward who frequently was forced to play out of position in the pivot last season. So, are we going to see Smith and Jefferson form a disastrous frontcourt again this season, or has the Rhino been signed to a 2-year deal to be 10-minute backup at the 4? The money is reportedly right, less than $4 million over two years, which inevitably leads to speculation that Smith is a placeholder as the Wolves continue preparing themselves to be a major player in the 2010 free agent market.

    Forgetting for a moment that big time free agents almost never come to this frozen tundra, the more immediate concern is, what happened to Ryan Gomes being this team’s top priority among its own free agents this summer? The trade for 6-8 Mike Miller and last year’s drafting of 6-9 Corey Brewer coupled with the signing of the 6-7 Smith doesn’t leave a lot of options for the 6-7 Gomes, who swings between the power and small forward positions. All Gomes did last season was do whatever was asked of him without complaint, while posting the second-best season, behind Jefferson, of anyone on the roster. He merits a $4-5 million payday and is exactly the kind of player who won’t embarrass a team that signs him for 3-4 years.

    The devil’s advocacy position is that neither Smith nor Gomes fits into the Wolves’ long range plans; that unlike Gomes, who will draw more interest, Smith is a cheap placeholder and that a team counting on a nucleus of Jefferson/Love/Foye/Brewer, and perhaps Miller and McCants, doesn’t have need for shorty 4’s or even swing 3-4’s. I understand this, although it makes laughable Kevin McHale’s frequent argument that people get too hung up on position at the expense of skill set and savvy. Ryan Gomes is a basketball player, the embodiment of that dictum; he makes others around him better in myriad little ways. Craig Smith is a specialist–an occasional nightmare matchup for teams in the low block–in a specialty that is neither particularly unique nor frequently required, meaning there is high supply and low demand.

    The probable good news is that Gomes may be eligible for the Kevin Garnett supersized bonus package: You get shunned in Minnesota only to land in Boston, where your services are recognized, properly invoked and handsomely rewarded in terms of both wins and dollars. There may be someone else on the market the Celts perceive as a Posey replacement, but I don’t know who. Gomes is not the defender Posey is, nor as money-certain in the clutch from long-range, but he’s younger, would be slightly cheaper, and is a fan favorite in Boston from his two years there.

    Brand Goes to Philly; Camby Lands With the Clips

    Let’s start with my minority opinion that Marcus Camby is a more valuable basketball player than Elton Brand. The market has obviously said otherwise–Brand signed a 5-year, $80 million deal with the Sixers, spurning a Clipper franchise that would have topped those numbers, while Camby is getting a mere $20 million over the next two years and was just given away for a second-round draft choice by the Nuggets. But that’s because even NBA general managers apparently undervalue defense in this league. Marcus Camby was named the league’s best defender two years ago. He is just a whisker behind Tyson Chandler as the best defensive center in basketball. And Nuggets gave him away because they didn’t want to pay the luxury tax!!

    How fucking stupid can the Denver management be? I get it that the Nuggets laid a giant egg last season and don’t want to lose a ton of money on a team that isn’t going anywhere. But to scapegoat Camby for this is asinine. What, you say Camby isn’t scapegoated, he’s just the one guy on the roster whose salary could be unloaded? Well then why is coach George Karl still around–wasn’t he the guy who couldn’t get this squad full of superstar contracts to play a lick of defense (aside from Camby, who led the NBA with 3.61 blocks per game to go with his 13 rebounds and 3.3 assists)? And why did Denver management explain they were dumping Camby to clear cap space to eventually sign free agents like chucklehead JR Smith, he of the $50 hops and 10-cent brain?

    Had Camby been kept on the squad this year, his ten mil would have been half of what Allen Iverson will make, more than four million less than both Melo and K-Mart will draw, and about $320,000 more than Nene will "earn." If I was a Nugs fan, I would be screaming bloody murder. You lose Camby but you keep Karl and the rest of the malingerers who sleepwalked through the season at the defensive end of the court? You’re seriously thinking that JR Smith is the key to your future? You have a $10 million trade exception for a year (about the only worthwhile thing received in the deal) but have the increasingly suspect Melo as your cornerstone, Iverson coming off the books at the end of the season, and the often-injured Nene and scrub Stephen Hunter as your centers alongside the often-injured K-Mart on the front line.

    If Karl is still around by New Year’s Day 2009, I’ll be amazed.

    But back to Camby versus Brand. I’ve long admired Brand’s work ethic and the way his integrity saw the Clips through some very lean years, which makes his apparent bait-and-switch with his former ballclub all the more ironic after the team, at his urging, had gone out and signed Baron Davis. Folks who favor Brand over Camby can point to him being a rare 20/10 career man after nine seasons in the league, and five years younger than Camby to boot.

    I think Camby, despite their huge age difference, will be more valuable than Brand in two years’ time. Because of Camby’s early history with injuries, he actually has fewer total NBA minutes than Brand–23,500 for EB; 21,301 for Camby. And Camby is getting better with age, setting career-highs in blocks, rebounds, and assists last season. Over the past three years he’s never grabbed fewer than 11.7 rebounds per game nor blocked fewer than 3.3 shots per game. By contrast, if we eliminate last year for Brand, who ruptured his achilles tendon and sat out all but 8 games, over his three previous (healthy) seasons, he grabbed 10 rebounds per game once (and then exactly 10.0), never blocked more than 2.5 shots per game, and registered fewer steals and assists than Camby. The only place Brand has it all over Camby is on offense. Brand’s 20.3 career average is nearly double Camby’s 10.7, and his shooting percentage is 50.5 versus Camby’s 46.7.

    But what’s harder to find, points in the paint or interior D? What’s a harder position to fill, center or power forward? And who has the better shot at being injury-free the next few years, the 6-7, 254 bull coming off a significant achilles injury who specializes in low-block offense or the 6-11, 235 shot-swatter who gets his few points mostly on mid-range jumpers? Camby is a young 34; Brand an old 29. The Clippers made out like bandits on this exchange, paying $6 million less and with less long-term obligation, for a better player.

    Yes, Camby is more redundant on a team that already has a legit center in Chris Kamen. Teams would be smart to try to run on a Clips team that sports a front line of Kamen/Camby/Thornton with the defensively challenged Baron Davis at the point and perhaps rookie Eric Gordon on the wing. But here’s a trade proposal I think would be great for both clubs: Camby and Cuttino Mobley to the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion. The Matrix would be a perfect fit between Kamen and Thorton, provide Davis and Gordon (and Thorton) with a dyamite running mate, and be the jack of defenders he was in Phoenix. Granted, Marion’s weird unhappiness with the perfect situation he was given in Phoenix, and at an inflated salary, is troubling in terms of him b
    eing a veteran leader in LA, and a contract agreement (or a sign and trade after an extension by Miami) would have to be worked out. But with Davis/Marion/Kamen as your nucleus and Eric Gordon and perhaps Deandre Jordan in your future, the Clips could make some noise in the tough Western Conference.

    Meanwhile, Miami would have Camby to go with Wade and Beasley, a perfect complement. Those who think the Heat are (or should) be building slow and sure have a lot more confidence in Wade’s ability to absorb punishment without future injury than I do. No, Miami should be in a win-soon mode, and putting a leviathan like Camby in the pivot and Wade and Beasley (and Mobley, don’t forget) on the wings is a nice little recipe for success. Just a thought.

    Posey Makes the Hornets Favorites in the West

    The best way to describe James Posey to fans in New Orleans is that he’s the anti-Bonzi Wells; a guy whose game is always better than his stats, and whose results are almost always better than the process you see before your eyes. Posey isn’t pretty–well, unless he’s making like the heir to Robert Horry on those big-time treys–but the kind of defense and rugged physicality he brings to the court isn’t meant to be pretty. He fits in so smoothly with Tyson Chandler and David West that it is tempting to think about bringing Peja Stojakovic off the bench as a 6th man of the year candidate. The ideal signing, and, if not for "Camby for a second round draft pick," the coup of the off-season acquisitions.

     

  • For Die-Hards Only: Vegas In Mid-July

    Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images

    The best way to sucker me into watching something like the Wolves-Mavs Summer League tilt in Vegas last night is to give me another deadline upon which to procrastinate. That was the situation, and thus here are my thumbnail takes on a meaningless game that may still have a tea leaf or two worth parsing over.

    Biggest disappointment: The shot selection and accuracy of Corey Brewer.

    They’ve got another ten pounds listed on his weight in the program over last year. And reports are that Brewer has stuck around and done everything the team has asked of him, which presumably means lots and lots of shooting practice. But in tonight’s Summer League opener, with Brewer obviously slotted in as the go-to scorer in an effort to further prime the pump on his offense, the guy seems to have retained and perhaps even exacerbated his rookie flaws.

    Under the best of circumstances, the spin move in heavy traffic is problematical, usually reliant on either luck or formidable strength and a charitable whistle. Brewer uses it too much because he has a faulty brake in transition. At least twice, and I’m pretty sure a third time, his path on dribble penetration was impeded and he spun into other defenders, with predictable results–turnover, airball, travel or charge. The defenders on these Summer League rosters are not exactly NBA caliber, and yet Brewer persisted in snuffing his own shot by playing in traffic.

    He hit his first two shots of the game, and his first shot of the second half. Other than that, he was 2-15 FG. Some of them were wide open looks that shooters make; some of them were ridiculously forced shots of the sort flailing players chuck up to wheedle a trip to the free throw line, only on a couple of occasions was Brewer flailing because he wasn’t strong or tall enough to create separation with a step-back move and felt compelled to try and heave it over his foe. At least one was a airball finger-roll that happened infrequently, but were still vividly memorable, last season.

    To sum up, then: Brewer’s shot selection was horrid, the result of taking a regular-season fifth option and making him your primary scorer. His accuracy on "good" shot attempts was still suspect. His body control remains gawky and strained; his strength sub-par, his mechanics all over the place.

    The silver linings are that the Wolves were playing their first game together of 2008-09, whereas Dallas had already played twice previously. This is a huge edge in experience at this time of the year and with this level of skill set among the players. Also, there are no decent ball distributors to help Brewer get a good shot. He remains better running the floor than pulling up and shooting. His early success indicates to me that his mechanics are different in practice and warming up than they are when he’s going full-tilt boogie on the floor; either that or he begins thinking too much when he clanks a couple.

    In other words, it is very early and this is hardly the most significant barometer and sample size to judge a sophmore Brewer. But a lottery pick in his second year going 5-18 FG in a Summer League game? Bad sign.

    Biggest satisfaction: Kevin Love’s effort on defense.

    You’ve probably read by now that Love picked up four fouls in the first seven minutes. But most of that was simply the shock of his first NBA splash in the pool, which creates a different intensity, even at this minor level, than practicing against your own teammates. But then he settled down and committed only two more in the next 23+ minutes. Rotations don’t seem second-nature to him yet, and his hops are ordinary. But the willpower is glowing, causing him to rotate hard and decisively in the paint, especially in the second half when the Wolves beefed up their D. He also has the grit to camp out in the low block for offensive rebounds, but it remains to be seen if that is just the mediocre level of competition or whether he has the knack for getting position.

    Love doesn’t have the NBA three-point stroke, as his first two attempts were front iron. But reports of his outlet passing are true and are truly second nature. When Love grabs a rebound, his first inclination is to spin and deliver an over-the-head two-handed pass, something he can double-pump on if the outlet lanes are defended. His numbers last night–18 points, 13 rebounds–were workmanlike more than spectacular, which is probably preferable in a 19-year-old kid. Caution: there was no genuine big man on either team to put the fear into anybody, but Love was being guarded by a lithe pogo stick in James Singletary, who had a pretty decent season for the Clips the year after the last and had about as much NBA experience as anyone on the floor.

    The downside: Love has at-best mediocre foot speed and needs to recognize and position himself to defend dribble drives more diligently. But the fundamentals seem sound (after one day versus inferior competition in mid-July).

    Miscellaneous observations:

    Pooh Jeter and Brian Ahearn are not the answer as back-up point guards. For that matter, not a single Wolves players registered an assist coming off the bench. Jeter was really the only "true" point on the roster. and he’s undersized. Drew Neitzel was strictly a heat-check gunner, a poor man’s Ricky Frahm.

    The roster is mostly bereft of athletes and foot speed (maybe that "crazy athleticism" Carney supposedly brings to the party will reveal itself tonight after he sat out the opener). Nobody could effectively turn the corner against the Mavs’ quicker lineups (starters and reserves), and none of the perimeter players besides Brewer could snap passes well enough to automatically avoid steals. The Wolves committed bushels of turnovers caused by a disparity in quickness.

    Chris Richard likewise didn’t set the world on fire in his team-high 31:37 of burn against competition he should be besting. The kid from Rochester via Oklahoma, Longar Longar, played merely 4 minutes+ by contrast and occasionally seemed lost, but did stick around long enough for a pretty blocked shot and seems unafraid to add a physical dimension. Raw, but perhaps worthy of D League seasoning?

    Carney and former Gopher Vincent Greer were DNP; ditto Gerald Green. But aside from Brewer and Love, I don’t see anybody on this roster getting within the top 12.

    If you want to watch the Vegas games live on your computer, it is free with registration at NBA.com