Author: Britt Robson

Is anyone surprised that the absurd quarterback situation bit the Vikings today, resulting in a 20-17 overtime loss to the Lions?

There are precious few positions that are absolutely crucial in team sports. But quarterback ranks with hockey goalie and starting pitcher as a spot where a markedly subpar performance almost always dooms your ballclub. Surely coach Brad Childress knows this, so he is either arrogant enough to believe he can do with Tavaris Jackson what the Eagles did with Donovan McNabb, stupid enough to believe he won’t get fired if he turns last year’s 6-10 into the same or worse this season, or he has the word of the owner that he has at least another year after this one–and believes it. Which, again, makes him either very arrogant or very stupid.

Jackson seems like a good dude, and admirably accepted the heat for a terrible, terrible performance today. But that’s really about the only positive thing you can say about him right now. All four of his interceptions were cringe-inducing, not a single one tipped by a defender or bouncing in or off a receiver. Instead, they revealed a lack of judgment, a lack of touch, and a lack of self-possession in more ways than one. It is really difficult to imagine this guy approaching the caretaker status of a Trent Dilfer, let alone someone who can win you ballgames on his own. I know it takes time to learn, and young QBs inevitably look shaky, but c’mon, last week’s ugly squeaker over Atlanta is the current highpoint of his career, which is exactly what you’d expect from a guy whose best attribute was being a stud athlete, and who didn’t even play major college football.

So far almost everything is going according to form with these Vikings. Most of their supposed strengths are indeed strong, but not nearly strong enough to overcome their obviously crippling weaknesses. I don’t pretend to follow the game as closely as I do pro hoops, or even baseball, but I have seen seven of their eight and half quarters thus far this season (including today’s entire contest) and am myself arrogant or stupid enough to spout off about my impressions.

**Adrian Peterson was even more impressive this week than on opening day. Yeah, I know his numbers were mediocre at best, but Peterson bounced off the first guy to hit him at least eight times today, and bounced off multiple people at least three or four, including that beautiful run–a mix of grit, lateral threading and that glorious speed of his–to set up Jackson’s arm-stretched running TD for the only six by the Vikes’ offense. At least ten times he picked up substantially more yardage than an average back would have garnered. One of his first carries of the day, an off tackle play to the left, wasn’t there for him and his jag to the sideline seemed to be accomplished simultanously with his upfield explosion. It was probably only about a 6, 7 yard run, but it was the kind of play that scares the shit out of defensive coordinators on tape and gets linebackers and defensive ends warned to prioritize the “outside contain,” which is why it would be fun to either throw Chester Taylor (when healthy) back there with Peterson or give the ball to Tony Richardson (when healthy) up the gut more often. The plays with my man (I may be his last staunch supporter, but I love the guy) Mewelde Moore and Peterson sharing a backfield were likewise very successful today.

One last thing about Peterson; you hear all this stuff about how he runs too high, doesn’t get low enough. I’ll concede that this might increase his risk of injury, but otherwise, man, it’s part of his style, and everyone should leave him alone about it. A lot of fabulous backs ran high in their day, including Walter Payton, Christian Okoye and to a lesser extent Emmitt Smith. Besides, Peterson plays off that high style, in that he often lowers his shoulder and rises up to shrug off tacklers–that’s one of the reasons they bounce off him. Watching him, you can certainly understand why his collarbone is injury-prone, and people coming at him sidewise really can measure him for a monster hit. But like all great backs, so much of what he is doing is intuitive and can’t really be changed without sacrificing something good. Leave him alone and cross your fingers. And notice right now that it is Taylor and Richardson who are dinged, not AP.

** About the only thing that has really surprised me about the Vikes this season surprised me about them last year too, but I foolishly bought the hype again over the off-season: Their offensive line is way overrated. The right side was going to be shakey from the start, but the fabled left side, the expensive, star-studded trio of McKinnie-Hutchinson-Birk, simply aren’t as good as their reputations. Shaun Rogers had a whale of a day at the nose tackle over Birk, and Corey Redding likewise was often in the backfield. There were precious few gaping holes for Peterson and co. to run through, and precious few occasions when Jackson could drop back in the pocket and casually survey the field. Those three stud linemen, plus Peterson, pretty much comprise the Vikings’ only hope for offensive success this season, and the beef isn’t pulling their weight in the expectations game.

**If you’re going to have a QB as inexperienced as Jackson, it certainly would be nice to have at least one quality receiver to help bail him out. Bobby Wade came to Minnesota with the stats of a journeyman and has demonstrated a journeyman’s skill set thus far. On a quality team he’d be your third receiver, at best, someone you threw in the slot on passing downs. Troy Williamson dropped two more passes today and is either physically or mentally incapable of overcoming this glaring flaw enough to gamble on his great speed. Sidney Rice looked good in the preseason, and made a good block on the screen pass versus Atlanta that helped spring Peterson for six. Don’t know if Rice was injured or if Childress just decided to ride Robert Ferguson, but if this is indeed a rebuilding year (and only the most deluded fan would conclude otherwise), why not let Jackson and Rice get to know each other under game conditions as often as possible? Ferguson is obviously on the back end of his career. In any event, Wade-Williamson-Ferguson isn’t going to stretch the field or otherwise scare anybody, especially with Jackson under center.

**It really is a shame that the line of scrimmage in a football game is one of the toughest places to really spotlight and appreciate a great defender. A good case can be made that Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are the best interior line tandem in the NFL right now, and when Kevin Williams breaks through and forces a fumble, as happened today, it reinforces the point. But most of the time teams don’t even bother to run at the Williams boys–the Lions certainly didn’t much today, and if the Falcons had anyone other than Joey Harrington they probably wouldn’t have either–and when they do, it is just a rugby-like scrum most of the time. Kevin Williams is a better Keith Millard, and that’s saying something because Millard, while being a crazy, ‘roided MF, had some fabulous games in the pit. But the Vikes have never had a run-stuffer as good as Pat Williams was last season. Teams that live and die by the run, like the Bears, are going to be the most enjoyable opponents for the Vikings this season; although Chicago will probably even turn Rex Grossman loose against this pass defense.

**Which brings us to Cedric Griffin. I don’t know the coverages, so I don’t know if the Lions were picking on Griffin as much as it seemed today. But you certainly didn’t see them completing much on Antonio Winfield. Griffin was one of my favorite players last year because he was upbeat and played with a no-nonsense attitude. But you can’t teach height, and one of the few smart observations by today’s commentators made the point about the physical disparity between Griffin and Lions receiver Roy Williams, not to mention the huge rookie Calvin Johnson. The Vikings’ third round pick out of Fresno didn’t have a great day either; ditto the linebackers in pass pro. Put it this way: The Vikes haven’t come close to facing a quality quarterback yet, and already their secondary has been exposed. Hats off to Darren Sharper for two picks and heady forced fumble, and, to be fair, the defense has played well enough to be competitive both weeks thus far. But with the lack of offensive firepower, that back seven can’t be as inconsistent as they’ve shown.

**Will we be looking at Kelly Holcomb before too long? Of all three signal-callers on the roster, he’s the one with the most experience and the best credentials. Is Childress really prepared to go with Jackson through thick and thin? If so, tickets at the Dome are going to be fairly easy to come by around Thanksgiving.

The Twins organization just announced that general manager Terry Ryan is resigning. This is a huge blow for the franchise. More than anyone else over the past decade–Tom Kelly, Carl Pohlad, Torii Hunter, you name it–Ryan fostered a “Twins Identity” that relied on the farm system, pitching, and the most thorough scouting and information retrieval system in Major League Baseball to keep the ballclub competitive beyond its payroll.

What hasn’t been made clear yet is whether Ryan jumped or was pushed, and whether he wants to keep doing this sort of work or settle into a Kelly-like advisory role. The fact that Billy Smith has been announced as Ryan’s replacement would indicate that ownership is not unhappy with the Ryan Way, as Smith is in many respects a protege of Ryan’s. If Ryan simply wants to decompress his life, smell the roses or wander off and do something completely different, then the loss is probably minimized.

But if Ryan is unhappy, or lost out in some sort of power struggle, or (and I can really see this) held himself to such a high standard that he is leaving out of a sense of honor for not doing his job correctly, then it hurts the organization. First of all, Ryan engenders tremendous loyalty among his scouts, who are there because of the power they have through Ryan–it certainly isn’t the size of their paychecks. So if Ryan is ending his association with the Twins, or is thinking about doing the same thing somewhere else, the Twins scouting apparatus could be in for a major shake-up, and that is dire news.

Ryan’s critics will point out that he has been too timid about late summer infusions and personnel changes in the midst of pennant races; that his mentality is best suited for underdog small markets content merely to be respectable, as opposed to a team with the richest owner in MLB about to benefit from a new stadium. To that I say that investing in scouting remains the smartest thing an organization can do regardless of how much cash the owner or the stadium can generate, and that it takes a former scout to know best how to build and maintain a system that maximizes the benefits of scouting.

On top of which, I don’t for a moment believe that Carl Pohlad or his surrogates are going to become spendy. Remember all that hue and cry about having to pay off Land Partners for their oh so unfair exorbitant asking price on land at the Twins stadium site, and how it would shortchange other aspects of the stadium construction? Well, Pohlad could step in and absorb much more, or even all of that gap between what the landowners want and what the public can pay. But he’s too busy figuring out how to buy the Ford office and loft building overlooking the stadium site so he can maximize profits on parcels benefiting from the presence of the new stadium. The guy is as greedy as ever, folks.

And Terry Ryan isn’t. He’s a class act, one of the best GMs in the game and a man of honor and amiability. Short of some sort of medical or personal crisis aside from baseball, he will be fine, landing on his feet in a situation of his choosing. For the Twins, on the other hand, the outlook is far less certain.

UPDATE: That Ryan is staying on as “senior adviser” is bittersweet good news. It means he wasn’t pushed out, so there are still some brain cells functioning among the upper echelons of the ownership. But the resignation announced and the subsequent media interviews points to that a slow burnout–should be call it smoulder immolation or something?–and that’s a shame. Still, 13 years is a long time (although Kevin McHale has been running the Wolves’ personnel merely one year less) and somebody as detail oriented as Ryan, with as little margin of error to work with as the Twins job, probably should be expected to wear down to the nub after awhile.

Good news on the promotion of Mike Radcliffe, another clear signal that the franchise still highly values scouts.

Welcome to the fourth and final Twins diablog of the 2007 season. As always, I’m joined by two savvy diamond heads: the game-cherishing Twins neurotic Brad Zellar, The Rake’s Twins beat writer and author of the Warning Track Power blog; and feisty fan and longtime local journalist David Brauer, who talks about the media on MPR, moderates the Mpls. Issues List, used to edit the Southwest Journal and freelances for a variety of print and online outlets. Oh yeah, he also once covered the Twins (and other sports) for the Twin Cities Reader.

We originally were going to go three or four rounds, but Jimmy Souhan’s Strib column today dealt with some things we were discussing before it was published (great minds think alike and so forth), and I realized it’s best to throw this up now–a conversation held from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening–and welcome further comments from both participants and readers.

Britt Robson

I’ve got a three-word autopsy on the Twins’ dead playoff chances with a month left to go in the season: They can’t hit. Some smart guy said that would be a problem way back in April, but in truth it didn’t take a genius to see that Nick Punto is just Denny Hocking 2.0; that Rondell White is too far past his prime and Jason Kubel either overhyped or an outright bust; that Jason Tyner has Triple-A talent in everything but pinch-running; and that the Big Four–Mauer/Morneau/Hunter/Cuddyer–all had career years in 2006.

The real dilemma is that, in terms of bats, the minor league system looks pretty barren, at least in terms of relatively immediate help. Looking over the stats from Rochester and New Britain, I see a plethora of late-twenties types like Garret Jones, Brian Buscher, Tommy Watkins and Glenn Williams (who is actually 30) as the heavy hitters. The closest things to ready-to-go prospects (aside from Alex Casilla, the future-is-now 2B since the Castillo trade)are SS Trevor Plouffe and OF Garrett Guzman, both still in Double-A. By contrast, the Twins are filthy rich in quality pitching prospects, ranging from Garza/Baker/Bonser already in the bigs, Liriano on the mend, Slowey/Perkins with some cups of coffee at the MLB level, and intriguing prospects like starter Anthony Swarzak and Nick Blackburn.

Okay, so we know the adages about pitching being 80 percent of the game, and how you can’t ever have too many pitchers, in part because injuries and constant adjustments by major league hitters make it such an inscrutable endeavor, which is a high-falutin’ way of calling it a crapshoot. The other day in this space, I listed the six prospects with the most major league experience in terms of how productive I thought they’d be over the next five years (feel free to make yourself look foolish by following my lead with your own take). Matt Garza, who has subsequently been torched his last two times out, was at the top, and Mr. One-Hitter Scott Baker was at the bottom. The truth is, they might as well all be dice you toss in a cup and then roll on the felt–everything from triple box cars to three sets of snake eyes is possible.

This unpredictability reinforces the conventional wisdom that you horde the arms, and consider the circumstance a blessed insurance policy as injuries and idiocy cull the herd. But if quality hitting prospects are traditionally more reliable (and according to Bill James and other stat heads, they are) and the Twins truly are bereft of young run producers in the minors, shouldn’t Terry Ryan and those crackerjack scouts trade at least a little of their bounty and create the kind of balanced squad you need to contend for a championship in the late aughts? I mean, the days of Koufax and Drysdale, or even Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine, being enough to snare a ring are over.

That’s why I was banging the drum for Ryan to trade Torii Hunter back at the All Star break. The opportunity to get something meaningful for Hunter is past. And if the choice really is overpaying Hunter–hands down the Twins’ MVP this season, in my opinion–for the next four or five years or putting Denard Spann and his sub .700 minor league OPS in his stead, then I reply: Neither! No, I buck conventional wisdom at least two of those arms. And I start with Johan Santana and Joe Nathan.

Brad Zellar deserves credit for raising the issue of dealing Santana first among the three of us, although he promptly ran away from it and probably still chalks it up to temporary insanity. But I think it’s a sound strategy. Barring injury, Santana is going to get at least $150 million on the open market at the end of next season. I don’t think the Twins should use *all* of their stadium windfall money on him, especially given the pitching-hitting imbalance that already afflicts the franchise. No, spend the money on extending Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Morneau will be very expensive–consider anything over what he was asking for last spring, when he could have and should have been inked, to be a stupidity tax. Cuddyer will be pricey ($5-$7 million for 3-5 years is my guess, but I am guessing) but worth it considering his increased selectivity as a hitter and his emergence as a quality outfielder with an accurate gun for an arm and intimate knowledge of the baggy caroms (can the new stadium by any tougher?).

I don’t know what the Twins can fetch for Santana and Nathan, but I imagine the best damn pitcher in baseball and a top-five closer should bring in at least one or two stud hitters and two or three stud hitting prospects. And, the payroll would be reduced enough to extend whatever cream from the pitching prospects and Santana/Nathan booty rises to the top.

Or we can pay Santana Zito-plus money and deal Nathan and some prospects. Or stand pat with pitching and finish third with a team ERA of 3.20. Your thoughts?

David Brauer

Looking back over my pre-season predictions, Britt calling me savvy is like gilding the turd. But I’ll press on…

A hat tip to our boy for insisting hitting was the problem and sticking to it. I do think it was a medium, if not long shot to bet that three of the Big Four bats would have big come-downs this year, but they have, including pennant race MIA Morneau. (Do we give Terry Ryan any credit for hedging here, betting that Justin would arc more towards Marty Cordova than Alex Rodriguez? No. It was a mistake not to sign him.)

Interestingly, the hitting went so crappy this year that it might weaken the case for trading for hitting. Why? Because it wouldn’t take much to upgrade these chumps, and even low-end (but higher than Rondell White) free agents might bring improvement in the nether reaches of the lineup and the bench. Britt noted the fluidity of pitching prospects’ ascension to the majors; this makes it a real crapshoot for any team wanting to trade with us; the odds are more in our favor keeping them all, dumping Torii (I still believe he will be overpriced) and trading Santana (who is much more worth Zito money than Zito, but is still the sort of gamble at that price that only truly rich teams can take). Santana should bring someone (if you believe the pessimistic ESPN scenario) or ones (Britt scenario) to be a young solid bat; won’t quite replace Torii, but we’ll have what, about $15 million to $25 million available from the salaries we won’t pay.

(Idle thought: what are the chances that all four Minnesota teams would have shitty offenses in the same year? We are the Land That Points Forgot.)

I don’t have a strong feeling at this moment about trading Nathan. I mean, if Joe Borowski can suck (as I predicted) yet still do the job (as Britt predicted), is this an overrated position, assuming you are north of RD? After a monthly ERA that’s jumped this summer–from 1 in June to 4 in July to 5 in August–Neshek might be a Pitching Piranha, but it seems to me that Liriano or Big Boy Boof might wind up in the finisher’s role. Guerrier’s August (.304 BAA) was more an aberration after a good July, so I expect him to still be part of the picture.

Juan Rincon–with an ERA above Ramon Ortiz–shouldn’t be a part of this club, nor should Lew Ford. I’m thinking a young club, a year of growth and judicious trades could position us for 2010 (when, by the way, some Twins bats in the deep minors–when they started to draft for hitting–might be ready).

Also like your gents’ view of Alexi Casilla, who still gives me warm fuzzies because we got him for the Rincon of 2005, J.C. Romero. He has exciting potential, yet looks like the Tin Man on double plays. In our modified wait-til-the-year-after-the-year-after-next-year, he’s fine to wait on, but I can’t help chortling about the Beat Writer Bullshit that there was veteran love and unexpectedly little dropoff following the Castillo deal (which I also supported, by the way. I predict Sal Butera’s kid will be here about the time Joe Mauer goes to third. Then we’ll have the stickless trio of Spann, Casilla and Butera in the lineup).

I’d like to nominate a new post-season award: MVP Who Didn’t Bitch Openly. This rules out Santana and Hunter. Barlett? Guerrier? The veteran moaning and/or production drop indicates a modified Cleveland (relying on pitching prospects rather than hitters) might be in order.

Writing all this, I can’t help thinking I’ve overreacted to a .500 year, but that serves it up to you boys to disabuse me of my errors.

Brad Zellar

Well, shit, I just wasted one of the last lovely afternoons of the waning summer watching the Twins once again stink up the joint –this time around it was a team effort: a miserable starting performance from Boof, and another horseshit showing from the offense. Six lousy hits (three from Garret freaking Jones), and nada from the heart of the order. No hits, no walks, no nothing.

Even poor Pat Neshek, who has been valiant all spring and summer in increasingly impossible situations (have you noticed how many times he’s been thrown out there in bases loaded situations with less than two outs?), is looking gassed.

Britt certainly did call it back in April, but I’m just going to plead denial. The warning signs were all there, but I’ve never been a guy willing to pay attention to warning signs in April. Every year I harbor my delusions, and this season the teeth-kicking has been particularly painful.

I’ve gone back and forth for months on what the hell the Twins should do in their current predicament, and it *is* a predicament. That old adage about pitching being 80% of the game has never been more ridiculous, particularly on a ballclub that isn’t even equipped to make up that other twenty percent. How many terrific and almost wholly irrelevant pitching performances have the Twins had this year? Too many.

This is an organization that has proved they can develop pitchers and mix-and-match spare parts to piece together a serviceable staff every year, and they’ve arguably never had so many solid arms and serviceable spare parts. What they cannot do –as Britt so succinctly pointed out– is hit.

In an era where offense is the name of the game, a team that can’t consistently score runs is beyond frustrating to follow. The guys the Twins were counting on –Hunter excepted— have clearly labored as they’ve realized that the team’s offense, such as it is, depends entirely on their production. It’s easy to say this in hindsight, but there were too many decisions regarding this year’s offense that were strictly crossed-finger decisions, and it was apparent early on that the team had no depth. Zero. No margin for error. Too many questions and no answers.

I was serious when I proposed trading Santana, even if I recognized that it would be a terrible short-term blow as well as, in all likelihood, a hugely misunderstood business decision. That was before Santana came out and criticized Terry Ryan and the front office. Given the current makeup of the team I can’t see how forking over a couple hundred million dollars for a pitcher, however magnificent, would be anything but a mistake. Ryan and Co. have pitching, and they clearly aren’t prepared to let any of it go. A Santana trade makes sense, but only if they got serious value in return –I’m talking a couple of recognizable and reliable bats and some combination of real prospects.

Like Britt, I’ve lobbied long and loudly that Hunter should be moved while he still had value. This goes back to early last year, and even the winter preceding last season. Right now, though, the guy is probably more valuable to the Twins than he would be to any other team, and I think they should take a big gulp and find a way to sign him.

And given the other looming decisions–Morneau, Cuddyer, even Jason Bartlett–I’d also roll the dice and trade Nathan. Both Neshek and Guerrier consistently pitched under much greater pressure all year than the average Major League closer ever has to deal with, and baseball is full of career scufflers who eventually landed on their feet in the closer’s role.

I hope we’re going to get a chance to talk about some of the other weirdness that’s gone on–and is going on right now–elsewhere this season. The local disappointment notwithstanding, the season’s shaking down in a most compelling manner.

Britt Robson

I’m convinced the more people watched the Twins this year, the more inclined they are to want to bite the bullet and make a play for re-upping Hunter. Brad, since you watch the local nine more than me certainly, and probably David, I understand your change of heart. Torii has put together his two best seasons (a much improved offense more than compensating for a slightly less stellar defense), and really has been the best reason to go to the ballpark on days Santana isn’t pitching. But big, muscular center fielders in their late-thirties making seven-digit money is exactly the kind of precedent that can ruin the identity of the Twins. No, I don’t mean the cheapskate part; but the part that makes shrewd decisions about popular players, like Eddie Guardado or Frank Viola, who weren’t worth what other teams would pay.

Here’s a ticklish question: When Hunter took a swing at Justin Morneau nearly two years ago now, or when he calls Joe Mauer’s pain threshold into question, is that good leadership or pissing on his turf to warn the new young bucks he’s still the alpha guy? Because if it’s the latter, chalk up another reason to cut him loose. I mean consider the circumstances: Mauer gets the fat contract while Torii passively-aggressively and unsuccessfully lobbies for his own extension. One of the more dominant, and presumably popular presences in the locker room is Mauer’s back-up, Mike Redmond, who makes a big show of parading around nude and loudly letting everyone know that they’ll have to cut off a limb to get him to beg out of the lineup.

One of the things Strib beat writer Joe Christensen told readers to keep an eye on last week was the clubhouse harmony–or lack of it–during the last month of the season. Makes you wonder how much of a big happy family that group is right now. And that’s why I appreciate Brauer’s comment about MVP Who Didn’t Bitch Openly. I’d say it’s a coin flip between Mauer and Neshek.

BTW, have you heard the likes of Dark Star and Sid Hartman loudly proclaiming that Ron Gardenhire should be Manager of the Year? Is it just me or have the Twins played their worst fundamental baseball in Gardenhire’s reign this season?

So we all think Santana should be dealt? Wow.

And yes, Brad, I’d love to talk about the rest of the baseball season beyond the Twinkies. Like Ryan Braun, the best hitter I’ve seen come up since Pujols. Other players who have made baseball fun include Diamondbacks outfielder Chris Young, the doggedly underrated Carlos Guillen of the Tigers, the ongoing beauty of Ichiro at the bat and cutting off singles before they become triples or throwing out singles trying to be stretched into doubles. I like the Red Sawk second sacker Dustin Pedroia, and loved what Bucholz did last night (and Lester, back from cancer, with a quality start today). I like A-Rod shoving stats down his critics’ throats while continuing to give them ammunition in myriad other ways. I like the way Barry Bonds has canonized Hank Aaron for the ages. I like Jake Peavey’s stuff and look forward to a Yankees-Red Sox ACLS with Joba and Super Mario battling the little Japanese lefty and Papelbon in the 8th and 9th innings. I wonder why Roger Clemens and his size 14 head doesn’t get the same scrutiny as Bonds. And I think the ballclub that signs Andruw Jones for $3-5 million a year more than Torii Hunter will still be getting the better value.

David Brauer
Injuries are like marriages; hard to understand outside the family. But my gut tells me Torii is doing the good leadership thing with Mauer (and Morneau the MVP year before)–although it would be great to have a beat writer really definitively in on the efficacy of the complaint. OK, maybe it would be better if Reusse did it. In my gut, I don’t think Torii’s speaking out of turn–though one of the more interesting things about the season is how little I’ve read from teammates, or at least with true passion outside of Santana, for paying him the money. (Maybe they’re all too young or angling for their own bucks to stand up right now. That may say something about the leadership void.)

Next opening day, Torii will be 32. He’ll have played a full slate in the last two seasons–though the two years before that he missed 24 and 64 games, respectively. A five-year deal puts him out to the 2012 season, which he finishes at age 37. For comparison, Johnny Damon is a year and a half older than Torii and on pace to have his worst season since 2000. (Interestingly, Damon makes just a million more than Torii, who of course is better.)

There’s no doubt that Torii is asking for market rate, and the Twins re-signing him will not be an outrage. He will probably be an outstanding right fielder in a few years, though as Puckett showed, the decline from center can be sooner than you think (even if Torii is in much better shape). I still think the money’s better spent/saved on Team 2010.

I will always love Gardy because I toiled in the locker room under his personable predecessor. I can’t say the fundamentals or even in-game decisions argue for Manager of the Year. The baserunning blunders and terrible bunts alone doom this ridiculous notion. Still, I view this year as an aberration at this point.

Can’t say I follow the other guys like the Roto-Geeks do, but I would add a few highlights: Magglio Ordonez’s season. Rich Ankiel is a hell of a story. Always streaky Jacque Jones turning his season and team around (well, as much as mediocrity turns around). KC’s Brian Bannister.

Hank Aaron’s gentlemanly (and winking) “endorsement” of Bonds was a duplicitous highlight of the year–I was 15 and watching Monday Night Baseball when he broke the record, to Curt Gowdy’s narration (we Midwest rubes had no idea Curt was the voice of the Red Sox). I remember the racist crap, and when Bonds’ stooges scream racism here, it makes me puke. Go ask Mark McGwire how much he’s loved these days. Roger is probably a juicer but with closer-lipped lab buddies.

I will say you’re wrong, wrong, wrong about Andruw Jones, Britt–the guy’s D has fallen off the table, much moreso than any blip you’ve seen in Torii. Of course, his average is putrid and his power numbers have fallen (from sensational highs). He’s got two years on Torii but is falling faster.

As I make the playoffs at this point, it’s Sox-Indians and Angels-Yanks. Boston has owned Cleveland and the Angels have doubled the onrushing Yanks. I’d love to see a Sox-Angels ALCS, though the rest of the country might be rooting for another AL East set-to. I’ll let you rotogeekers pick the NL.

Brad Zellar

The thing you always have to accept about clubhouse chemistry, is that away from the stadium so many of these guys come from –and live in– completely different worlds. I do think the Twins’ clubhouse was a lot more cliquish not that long ago, and I’ve come to trust Torii as a pretty stand-up guy. I’m not real sure about the Mauer injury situation –other than that is *has* been frustrating, and a bit more mysterious than you’d like, from the outside looking in. I was around for the Morneau incident, though, and even if Hunter wasn’t necessarily working from an ideal position (he was injured himself at the time), Morneau definitely needed to be called out at the time.

I sense that there really has been an unusual level of harmony in that clubhouse for a number of years now. Sure, stuff comes along (like the sniping at this year’s trading deadline) that rocks the boat from time to time, but compared to virtually every visitor’s clubhouse I’ve ever been in, the Twins have a pretty loose and cohesive atmosphere.

As far as the guys who don’t bitch or rock the boat, I’d commend Cuddyer first and foremost, if only because he’s always articulate and accessible (and personable), and he did have the one great quote on the heels of the Santana flare-up –something along the lines of, “Terry Ryan doesn’t come down here and give me a hard time when I swing at a 3-0 pitch and ground into a double play, so who I am to go up there and tell him how to do his job?”

The fundamental lapses this season –particularly on the offensive side– have been the really inexplicable (and inexcusable) part of the ’07 mess. Like David, I assume they’re an aberration related to the struggles and the resulting tendency to press. There’s still no excuse for a guy like Nick Punto being unable to execute a fucking sacrifice bunt.

Somebody’s going to throw a ridiculous pile of money at Andruw Jones, because a) he’s got those two years on Hunter, and b) he’s been more consistently great for a longer period of time, and c) he’s played for all those winning teams in a very high profile market. It doesn’t hurt that he hit 41 homers a year ago, and 51 in ’05. There’s no question he’s declined pretty drastically as a defensive player, but the sort of blip he’s been experiencing is pretty common in the middle of a guy’s career. I bet he rebounds, and think he’s still worth more than Hunter.

Aside from the choke jobs in Detroit and Seattle, and the unreal resurgence of the Yankees (52-29 since June 3), the really interesting stuff has been happening in the National League. The Central and the West have been consistently entertaining. You’ve got three teams in those two divisions that have allowed more runs than they’ve scored, and both races look like they’re going to go down to the wire. The Cubs, by the way, have been almost as good as the Yankees the last few months, this after being just as bad the first two months.

There are a ton of great young players now, and a ton of fabulous individual story lines, but I think the Ankiel thing is truly mind-blowing, particularly given the psychological meltdown that preceded the transition from pitcher to outfielder. I know you guys know, and I know the players know, but, holy shit, do people realize what a remarkable –and remarkably tough– thing that is to pull off?

Britt Robson

What I want to know is how Tony LaRussa gets a free pass on totally messing up Rick Ankiel’s pitching career, while unassuming schmoes like Grady Little and Cito Gaston get the tar and feathers treatment for lesser offenses. Oh yeah, Little landed on his feet with the Dodgers. Well, the point isn’t that I carry the torch for Gaston so much as some dudes are anointed geniuses–Lou Piniella?–and they just happen to be crusty old jerks that crusty old jerk sportswriters can relate to or get intimidated by–like Tom Kelly (nice poke there on the last post David). LaRussa’s been traipsing around like his shit doesn’t stink for decades now and his team has spectacularly underachieved this season. On the flipside, look at Eric Wedge of Cleveland, who took the increasingly risk and exceedingly bold move of calling out his team as they were in the tank in the midst of a pennant race in August, and they turned the ship around almost immediately after that. Or look at the steady hand Willie Randolph exercises in New York. I’ll take Wedge as my AL Manager of the Year. In the senior circuit (nobody calls them junior and senior circuits anymore, do they?), along with Randolph I like the jobs Bob Melvin and Bud Black have done in the NL West. Right now Melvin has the edge for me; unlike Ned Yost in Milwaukee, his kids are playing better and better and he’s kept pace in a very competitive division without the services of supposed ace Randy Johnson.

And David, the blend of fantasy baseball I happen to prefer is not roto–I don’t trade 20-game winners for .230 hitters just because the latter has 29 stolen bases–but I will defend the practice of fantasy ball by saying that I do indeed keep up with everyone around the league and it has dramatically improved my breadth, if not my depth, of knowledge about the game.

Meanwhile, Brad prefers the press box and the locker room for his dope and it is invaluable for me to hear that Hunter was right about Morneau two years ago–I always had a grudge against him for it. Also good to hear about Cuddyer, who has really grown on me the past two years.

I won’t get into silly trade speculation about specific names–covering the Wolves intensely makes me realize how much has to fall into place for any trade to occur–but I think it is fair to say what we’d like for Santana, now that we all want to throw him under the bus (just kidding folks; we know he’s the best pitcher in baseball, which is why he will move on to a more lucrative market eventually whether we trade him or not). I think it is inevitable that Mauer goes to third base–or at least I hope it is. I want to watch him hit .340 with 25 homers and 110 rbis for three, four seasons in a row soon and that won’t happen with him behind the plate. So I want a quality catcher with big upside and a quality outfielder who the Twins will have to pay huge money for down the road. And if the team can only get one, I’d ask for a high-level prospect and a sleeper that Ryan’s crack scouting staff recommends.

As always, you two have been extremely generous with your time and opinions on a Labor Day weekend when you both have other things to do. I can see convening a playoff edition of this in a month or so. Until then, have the last words…and thanks again.

Brad Zellar

Can I just spend the rest of my space bitching about Tony LaRussa? Nobody has ever spent so much time trying to cultivate the mystique of genius –nobody, ever. On paper, at least, the guy has always had the seeming credentials of a flake –vegetarian, dance aficionado, drunk driver– but he has zero charisma, and he’s a pompous jackass. Remember his brilliant strategy of batting the pitcher eighth? God, what a pain in the ass. Lock me in a room with LaRussa, Buck Showalter, and Tom Kelly and you’d have the makings of the most insufferable reality show of all time, as well as my personal nightmare version of “No Exit.”

When you look hard at Arizona and what they’ve done –not much pitching beyond Webb (the Diamondbacks have given up more runs than they’ve scored), and a pretty lousy offense (when Eric Byrnes is the closest thing you’ve got to a superstar, you’d think you were in for a very long year)– it’s hard not to conclude that Bob Melvin has either done one hell of a job or he’s been very, very lucky. I’d say it’s probably some combination of those things, but I’d still give him my vote for NL manager of the year, with Black a close second.
I was trying to think of pitchers who have made decent managers, and without poking around in the reference books I can only come up with Roger Craig and Larry Dierker. What other recent managers were pitchers? Ray Miller? Marcel Lachemann? Rhil Regan? Not a very impressive list.

No idea what the Twins might get for Santana. I guess you’d have to narrow it down to a list of likely suitors, and scour their rosters, which I suppose I’ll do at some point. I’d like to see them get a lot, of course, and if Terry Ryan could get Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski he should have no problem coming up with an extremely attractive and creative deal for Santana. Who’s got a center fielder, left fielder, and a catcher to deal –presuming Hunter goes and the Twins do, in fact, move Mauer to third?

David Brauer

The original Clark Griffith–Calvin’s dad–was a pitcher and manager who compiled 1491-1367 record between 1901 and 1920. Not only is he over .500, he’s in the top 20 all-time for wins. He also was a player-manager for his first 14 years running the club. But no former pitchers have been named AL Manager of the Year since the award began in 1983, and only Tommy LaSorda the first year has been an former pitcher capturing NL Manager of the Year, proving your excellent point Brad.

Catching up on a few things while my Kevin Garnett appreciation piece lingers on another few weeks…

* The KG magnet is working well in Boston. Of the Celtics signings to fill out their roster since the big trade, Scot Pollard is no great shakes but Eddie House is a nice little microwave to have from outside coming off the bench to spell Rondo and Ray Allen, and, the real coup, glue guy James Posey has agreed to come to Boston to firm up its suspect defense. Like House, Posey is also a threat from three-point territory. The real winner in all this is Kendrick Perkins, who will be wide open on the weakside low block every time the C’s set up with KG on one block, Pierce and Allen on the wings, and gunners including Allen and House outside the arc.

* The flipside is the traded-KG magnetic force propelling Juwan Howard away from the Wolves. Howard’s stated desire to be traded just weeks after he himself was acquired was eminently predictable following Garnett’s departure, but the Wolves should resist compliance for at least a year. Anyone scanning Minnesota’s roster will notice a void of veteran leadership, at a time when the post-KG wake promises to wash up all kinds of pecking order disputes, even as Randy Wittman implements the hard-ass discipline that has been the most frequent justification made for his rehiring. Bottom line, the Wolves need Howard’s level head and mitigating demeanor, especially with clubhouse balm Mark Madsen waylaid by a watercraft incident. Too bad for Juwon, who isn’t getting any younger and wants a shot at a ring– or at least a chance to believe his role as lead babysitter will lead to tangible rewards before he retires.

* As if often the case, the best free-agent signings are teams retaining their keystone players (Gerald Wallace in Charlotte, Chauncey Billups in Detroit, Mo Williams in Milwaukee). Otherwise, there are a lot of gambles out there thus far. The Celts getting Posey is an exception–he’s a perfect fit–and I’d add to that a quartet of point-guard signings. The diciest of the four is Chucky Atkins going from nothing-to-lose Memphis to the impending pressure-cooker of a Nuggets squad that can’t afford to squander the Melo-AI-Camby combo one more year. Still, I think Atkins will be an upgrade over Steve Blake, who bears the scars of not stepping up in last year’s playoffs versus the Spurs. Blake’s return to Portland is a good idea for both sides, however, as he is the right guy to mentor Jarrett Jack and help along Greg Oden and company as the Blazers quicken into feared contenders for the next decade or so. Brevin Knight will give the Clips a nice little bridge between the fast-fading Sam Cassell and the recently drafted rookie. And Derek Fisher going back to the Lakers is a no-brainer all the way around.

In contrast, the big-man signings are fraught with risk. Did Jamaal Magloire permanently fall off the table that fast due to age and injuries, or will the chance to play with Kidd, Carter and Jefferson resurrect his low-post tenacity? Is Darko Milicic a tease or a burgeoning star? And how is he not redundant with Pau Gasol in Memphis? Mikki Moore was a wonderful story last year, and I’m glad he’s getting paid, but he’ll soon discover that playing with Bibby and Kelvin Martin is a tad different than Kidd and Jeff. Joe Smith is no upgrade over PJ Brown in Chicago (but perhaps a better fit with Ben Wallace, if not Joakim Noah).

Like the Sports Guy and many others, I believe Orlando grossly overpaid for Rashad Lewis, who does a lot of the big things and precious few of the little ones that turn a star into a superstar. But getting Adonal Foyle off the scrap heap to help Dwight Howard was a nice move. In signings that have more pronounced playoff implications, Grant Hill is a decent gamble for Phoenix, who is totally mortgaging its future (how many of their draft picks has Portland owner Paul Allen bought by now?) in order to win now. And Eddie Jones brings 10-12 minutes of quality defense and hustle to an already-stocked Dallas team whose biggest hurdle will be psychological in 2007-08.

* It is hard not to conclude that scandalized ref Tim Donaghy didn’t blow whistles that shaved points to abet the alleged mob figures who allegedly had him by the short hairs due to gambling debts. And I understand and appreciate that the credibility of the entire NBA will take a hit for it. But as a constant watcher of NBA games, one of the things I selfishly fear is that the refs as a group will have suffered sufficient loss of face that the rules about players bitching over calls will effectively vanish. As one who tends to side with employees over management in most labor disputes, I was surprised at how much I welcomed the potential reduction in absurd bellyaching after every blown whistle. But after a month or so of enforcing the rule, the refs seemed to slowly but surely relax their intolerance–or worse, selectively enforce it–as the season went on. Amid all the calls for upgrading the refs and removing any taint of scandal from their ranks, I hope that a bone gets tossed to the quality refs who will have to endure a horrendous season in 07-08 in the wake of the Donaghy matter. Specifically, David Stern should reiterate that needless complaints–and I’m talking about melodramatic reactions and extended debates by players who clearly just hacked/charged/travelled/etc–will result in additional fouls. Let’s clean up the game all the way around. I’ll take that over dress codes any day.

* Finally, while it is true that the United States has been unbeaten throughout its performances in FIBA Americas Championship Series over the decades, I do believe the current squad obliterating the South Americans this summer is the best all-around ballclub since the fabled Dream Teamers of the 1980s. When you can throw out three rugged floor generals like Kidd, Deron Williams and Billups at the point, have three-point specialists Michael Redd and Mike Miller as backcourt options, trump any opponents’ athletes with LeBron, Kobe, Melo and Tayshaun Prince as your swingmen, and finish off with Dwight Howard, Amare, and Tyson Chandler as your beef inside, you have got a team without discernable weakness.

* Quick prediction before it’s too late: Boof Bonser ends his abysmal losing streak tonight in Baltimore against the O’s (weather permitting).

* How sad is it to see the Strib continue to list the Twins in their “Wild Card Race” box between the standings and the probable starters? This morning, it showed the hometown nine tied with two other .500 teams at nine games out with 36 left to play, behind three other teams, who are, of course, behind the three division leaders in the playoff chase. Got that? In terms of playoff viability, the Twins are better off than five AL clubs, tied with two others, and behind six, with four ultimately earning a chance to play in the postseason. Put simply, they are dead. Dead. DEAD. I hope to conduct the autopsy with Brad Zellar and David Brauer in another roundtable around Labor Day, but until then, one quick whine: Why didn’t Terry Ryan deal Torii Hunter two months ago, when he would have fetched a quality prospect for 2008 or 09 batting order that right now looks mighty thin?

* On the bright side, the Twins have a bevy of promising young arms, and perhaps an entertaining parlor game for a diehard Twins fan is to rank them in order of how you perceive their value over the next five years. Here’s my list, including only those who have spent enough time in the bigs to create a viable impression.

1. Matt Garza
2. Glen Perkins
3. Boof Bonser
4. Francisco Liriano
5. Kevin Slowey
6. Scott Baker

I imagine most fans would have Liriano much higher, but the whip-snap motion he throws with now puts enormous torque on that elbow and shoulder and I don’t think he can last without a major overhaul in his delivery. Likewise, Bonser is probably higher than most would put him, especially after his dreadful past ten weeks, but there is something about his makeup that makes me intuitively think he’s going to be fine, as in a middle-rotation guy, for quite a while. And Perkins is a sleeper, a lefty with loads of confidence. Yeah, I know he’s been dinged too, but I don’t see the windup as being an accident waiting to happen the way it is with Liriano. I don’t have a good reason for dumping on Scott Baker, other than he just doesn’t look like he has good stuff to me, and is consequently prone to the home run ball. Now Baker has been brilliant more than once this season, and this after last year’s abomination. I’d love to be proven wrong about him, because from the outside looking in, he seems like a competitor and a stand-up guy, the kind of pitcher teammates are pulling for. Anyway, let’s hear your half-dozen.

* The Tribe beat the Tigers in the rubber game of their big Central Division series this afternoon and the good news in Cleveland is that Jake Westbrook pitched another gem, locking up with Nate Robertson in a scoreless duel over nine innings before Cleveland took it, 3-1 in 10, on a two-run single by perpetual utility man Chris Gomez (!); this after another late season pickup, Kenny Lofton, knocked in the game’s first run. Bottom line, with C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona and now Westbrook all wheeling, Cleveland has a playoff rotation to rival the Red Sox trio of Beckett-Dice K-Schilling, whereas the Angels can only go two-deep reliably (Lackey-Escobar). The Wild Card, in more ways than one, is the Yankees, who should lead with Wang as their ace and then have a guy, Andy Pettite, who has won them a bunch of games in the postseason, followed by Clemens and/or Mussina, with the ultratalented Phil Hughes as an intriguing long reliever should one of the starters spit the bit and Torre needs a stopgap while his bashers eclipse the deficit.

* And yes, I think the hated Yankees are going to be the Wild Card out of the AL. Seattle has been a fun story, currently own a two-game lead, and are playing like they have nothing to lose. Once they realize they do, in fact, have a playoff spot to lose, can they keep their composure. Up until now, they have been extremely lucky, going 71-53 despite outscoring their opponents by a mere 624-603, due mostly to timely hitting from a balanced order (among the starting lineup, DH Jose Vidro is last with a respectable 49 rbis, four ahead of Kubel and three behind Mauer) and a great bullpen led by closer JJ Putz. But Putz has shown signs of fatigue and I still suspect that good pitching can throttle everyone but Ichiro in this lineup. Of course Seattle could also be kindred spirits to the 1987 Twins, and win it all on sheer luck and gumption. I’d love to see it.

In the National League, there’s a glorious clusterfuck of the sort that should make Bud Selig wet his pants. Only the Mets seem to be a sure thing, and six teams are within 3 and half games of either the division lead or the wild card berth, not counting the three division leaders. That’s more than half the NL franchises with legitimate hopes for the postseason on the weekend before Labor Day. I’ve been pulling for the Brewers and D-backs, two squads loaded with burgeoning young talent, all season, and Arizona currently owns a 3 and half game lead on the Padres. As of now, I think San Diego’s superior pitching pulls out a third straight division crown, leaving Arizona to battle it out with Atlanta and the Dodgers for the wild card. The Phillies suffered a huge loss with their only solid starter, Cole Hamels hitting the DL (a bigger blow than the Pads’ Chris Young likewise going down, because SD has superior depth and a more forgiving ballpark). Milwaukee? Hard to see how they stay with the Cubs, who have better pitching and a superior starting lineup. And the slapstick pennant race has given the snakebitten Cardinals enough oxygen that the old vets might stitch it together to surmount the Cubbies, the Cubs being the Cubs and all.

* Last, and probably least, isn’t it time for all the haters to give it up for Carlos Silva, the much, much, much derided Twins starter who has a decent shot at eating up 200 innings by season’s end? Joe Christensen said as much in today’s paper, another good piece following on his article last Sunday on the silver lining of the Twins pitching prospects getting seasoning this year. It almost makes up for his tireless advocacy to re-sign Torii Hunter. Of course in that he is hardly alone, with Jimmy Souhan being the biggest Hunter booster. If I had a ballot, I’d vote Hunter the Twins MVP for 2007. But that doesn’t mean I want to see the organization paying him $12 to $18 million, minimum, four years from now.