The Rake Magazine

Tag: forecast

  • 2008 Major League Baseball Forecast—American League

    AP Photo by David J. Phillip

    American League East

    1. Boston Red Sox

    It’s more interesting (or at least less conventional) playing Devil’s Advocate about why the Sox *won’t* repeat as pennant winners. Practically everything went right last season: Papelbon’s shoulder held firm and Beckett’s blisters didn’t grow, and every rookie was off-the-charts good, from spunky Pedroia to no-hit Bucholtz to speedy Ellersby to the supreme set-ups of Okajima. Okay, so Dice-K was shaky and Ortiz was one-legged, and Manny couldn’t always be Manny at the plate and Drew was horribly inconsistent. The odds of those negatives repeating are greater than a reprise of the positives. I mean, Manny is 36, Papi can’t hit any better than last year even with two good knees, and Dice-K and Drew aren’t the kind of performers you entrust with the mortgage money. And Curt Schilling is toast, Mike Lowell is old…Okay, back to reality. They have the best balance of pitching depth and hitting depth in all of baseball. Their Vegas odds are the lowest on the board. As April dawns, they are the team to beat.

    2. Toronto Blue Jays

    Yup, the Jays will overtake the Yankees this season. Their starting rotation stacks up with anybody–Halladay a legit ace, Marcum and McGowan a pair of live arms coming into their own, and AJ Burnett an injury-prone stud at #4. Closer BJ Ryan’s elbow injury in early May actually fortified the bullpen for this season as Accardo, Downs and Janssen all stepped up–and now Ryan is fast on the mend. Meanwhile, outfielder Alex Rios is a budding star, Vernon Wells is due for a big comeback, and snagging the left side of Cards’ 2006 champion infield–3B Scott Rolen and SS David Eckstein–to go with great glove man Aaron Hill at 2B will make all those ground-ball pitchers on the staff happy and wealthy. The Blue Jays are ready to compete with the big boys.

    3. New York Yankees

    The George Steinbrenner-Joe Torre era is over, yet the roster looks distressingly similar. There’s a hell of a lot of pressure on young pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to produce, because it’s hard to see how the Yankees improve enough to surmount the Red Sox and not get overtaken by the Blue Jays otherwise. Two-thirds of their batting order is in decline: Damon, Giambi, Abreu, Matsui, Posada, and yes, even Jeter (now 34). Ditto starters Andy Pettite and Mike Mussina and Mariano The Great in the pen. So, what, A-Rod is supposed to knock in *more* than 156 runs this year to make up the difference?

    4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

    Even after jettisoning hot prospects Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes, their lineup is no longer a joke. Carl Crawford and BJ Upton are five-tool players, Carlos Pena can lose a third of his long-ball production and still hit 30 dingers, and there is some potent old (Cliff Floyd) and young (Evan Longoria) help on the way. But the starting rotation needs to quicken: Would-be ace Scott Kazmir is still teasing out his upside, Jamie Shields needs to show he can put together back-to-back solid seasons, and the Twins’ scouting staff isn’t in the habit of giving up someone like Matt Garza unless there’s a significant flaw in his makeup. Even so, you throw in former Dodgers hot prospect Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine as your #5 and that’s a talented rotation with nobody over age 25. The Rays are emerging.

    5. Baltimore Orioles

    Finally they rebuild in earnest, although trading Eric Bedard to Seattle was lunacy even if they did pluck a potentially great center fielder in Adam Jones out of the deal. Aside from nascent star outfielder Nick Markakis and Jones, there aren’t any uber-talented kids shoving the likes of Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora and Ramon Hernandez out of the way. And their pitching is wretched. When you can’t sell out Camden Yards any longer, you know you’ve been doing something very wrong for a pretty long time.

     

    American League Central

    1. Cleveland Indians

    The Indians-Tigers and Red Sox-Blue Jays-Yankees both should be hotly contested races from wire to wire. While the Tigers retooled in a major way, the Tribe stood pat with a dignity and wisdom Twins fans will recognize. Their homegrown beef brothers CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are the league’s best 1-2 mound tandem, their bullpen took a quantum leap forward last season with the emergence of Betancourt and Perez, and back-of-the-rotation vets Westbrook and Cliff Lee will be healthier (physically and mentally, respectively) this year. At the plate, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez should be close to their glorious primes, Garko and Asdrubal Cabrera represent a promising new right side of the infield, and Casey Blake is unsung but effective. Even so, the Indians’ hope of outlasting Detroit may rely on Travis Hafner not imploding.

    2, Detroit Tigers

    Miguel Cabrera is a stone-cold hitter who might give A-Rod a run for his money in the power categories this year, but the other plum from Florida, pitcher Dontrelle Willis, is less of a sure thing. Too bad, because after certifiable ace Justin Verlander, the rotation is iffy. Jeremy Bonderman broke down last season, Kenny Rogers is on his third installment of borrowed time, and Nate Robertson is an innings-eating mediocrity (not that there is anything wrong with that). Oh, and the bullpen is weak, from middle relief right through to closer Todd Jones. Nevertheless, the Tigers will win a lot of 9-7 and 11-9 games. Pudge Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield are aging, and another 139 ribbies from Magglio Ordonez is unlikely, but with Cabrera and SS Edgar Renteria on board and Carlos Guillen moving to first base, there are no weaknesses in theTigers’ batting order.

    3. Minnesota Twins

    Although many pundits are picking the hometown nine 4th or 5th, I don’t think I’m drinking the local kool-aid. Morneau and Cuddyer should find a productive mean between their last two seasons and Mauer should be healthy enough for a career-best OPS–and if he’s not, let’s play him at 3B finally, okay Gardy? Delmon Young replaces Torii Hunter’s bat at a fraction of the price and is going to get better a lot faster than he gets more expensive. Yes, the staples of pitching and defense have taken a hit, even with the second coming of Mark Belanger, Adam Everett, taking over at short. Baker, Slowey and Bonser sounds better as a law firm than as the top half of a starting rotation–I haven’t forgotten about Livan Hernandez; I just don’t expect much beyond his workhorse capabilities yielding mediocre results. If the vegan might of Pat Neshek can hold until autumn and Dennis Reyes is more than a one-year wonder (two years ago) the bullpen will be a strength. But mostly I’m picking the Twins third because the White Sox are still dysfunctional and the Royals are ready to ascend yet.

    4. Chicago White Sox

    Ozzie Guillen doesn’t seem like a great manager for encores, The Pale Hose are a ballclub that need to tear it down to close to the studs, but instead they’re sticking with the Konerkos and Credes and Dyes and AJs and Thomes in order to have their foolish dreams rudely abused by the Indians and Tigers. Nick Swisher was a nice pickup from Oakland, and sooner or later room has to be made for Josh Fields at third over Crede, and the Cuban kid at second, Alexei Ramirez, could be exciting. But acquiring Orlando Cabrera for shortstop and keeping Javy Vazquez and Jose Contreras in the rotation means that the profane Guillen and company are in it to win it–and when they don’t, things will get ugly.

    5. Kansas City Royals

    The ceiling on erstwhile prospects like OF David DeJesus and C John Buck and P Zack Grinke seems to be lower than anticipated, but the Royals finally seem to be headed in the right direction anyway, thanks to former Atlanta exec Dayton Moore, a GM who is building for the long haul from the ground up. In Alex
    Gordon and Billy Butler, KC has two dangerous young hitters, and Tony Pena Jr. flashes the sort of leather than can anchor an infield defense at shortstop. Until Moore can choose and develop a few more quality pieces, the Royals will rely too heavily on dime-store "stars" like pitcher Gil Meche and outfielder Jose Guillen to carry them. But it is not hopeless any more–or at least not for long.

    American League West

    1. Seattle Mariners

    Casual fans may be surprised by this pick, but the Mariners are due. They’ve got one of the top five payrolls in the league, one of the 5 oldest rosters, won 88 games last year, and added arguably the best pitcher remaining in the AL, Eric Bedard, to their staff. Paired with King Felix Hernandez, 16-game winner Miguel Batista, and veterans Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva, the rotation is among the league’s elite–and their closer, JJ Putz, stands alongside Joe Nathan as the best in the game today. On offense, the M’s still have Ichiro, an underrated if aging hitter in Raul Ibanez, and decent run producers for their positions in C Kenji Johjima, 2B Jose Lopez (who will bounce back closer to his 2006 breakout) and 3B Adrian Beltre. Even middling seasons from 1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro would help. The bugaboo is defense, especially in the spacious outfield, where Ichiro will go on his own WeightWatchers plan trying to cover ground between Ibanez and pudgy Brad Wilkerson.

    2. Los Angeles Angels

    It seems every year some promising contender is snakebit by injuries, and having their top two starters, John Lackey and Kelvin Escobar, go down with ailments this spring points toward the Halos as this year’s hard luck story. Mike Scioscia is the best manager in the game at manufacturing runs, and with the signing of Torii Hunter to protect Vlad Guerrero in the batting order and the acquisition of Jon Garland for the rotation, the Angels clearly mean to go for it all in 2008. But can the likes of Jered Weaver, Garland and Ervin Santana hold the fort until Lackey and Escobar return?

    3. Oakland Athletics

    Oakland will exceed expectations and approach last year’s 76-86 mark despite a massive rebuilding campaign because, as usual, the front office can identify talent. Outfielder Travis Buck, 1B Daric Barton and C Kurt Suzuki are ready now, and OFs Chris Denorfia and Carlos Gonzalez aren’t far away. As placeholders go, 2B Mark Ellis and OF Emil Brown aren’t too shabby, and sooner or later the left side of the infield, Crosby and Chavez, have to be healthy on the same day–don’t they? More to the point, a rotation led by Rich Harden and Joe Blanton with lefty Dana Eveland coming over from Arizona in the Dan Haren deal is miles better than Texas, enough to keep the A’s out of last place.

    4. Texas Rangers

    What a mess. The pitching staff is heaped with underachievers like Millwood and Padilla and Jason Jennings, the vaunted left side of the infield–Young and Blalock–has seen better days, and they are counting on talented but star-crossed outfielders Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley to give them a boost. The good news is that Ian Kinsler is a budding star at 2B and Jarrod Saltalamacchia projects as a Victor Martinez clone at C/1B. Avoiding 90 losses would be an achievement.

  • 2008 Major League Baseball Forecast—National League

    Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images


    National League East

    1. New York Mets

    Johan Santana pitching in huge Shea Stadium without a DH in the opposing lineup sounds like a recipe for 20-25 wins. Depth and quality in middle relief will allow Pedro Martinez to become a dominant 6 inning #2 starter (if manager Willie Randolph is smart), and John Maine is ready to emerge as a solid #3. Offensively, the top 4 is pretty damn good–Reyes/Castillo/Wright/Beltran–but after that its seniors in decline (Delgado, Alou) and mediocrity (Ryan Church?! What’s the skeleton that got Lastings Milledge traded?). Brian Schneider is an upgrade over ‘roided Paul Loduca, but the Mets will win a weak division on the strength of their pitching and troika of stars (the top four minus Castillo).

    2. Atlanta Braves

    If they can stay healthy, they’ll be tough. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are good table-setters and a decent keystone combo; then come a quartet of mashers in Chipper, Teixeria (in a contract year, no less), a bulked up Francoeur who actually started taking a pitch or two last year, and the young moose McCann. But can Chipper stay healthy enough for his usual 125-130 games, let alone, 162, at age 36? More to the point, how many quality starts does the impressive but aged starting rotation of Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine and Mike f’ing Hampton have left? The bullpen is a little shaky and Mark Kotsay is no Andruw in center. I’m guessing Chipper pulls his normal duty (and produces accordingly), Teixeria and Francoeur are monsters, and everyone but Hampton hangs tough in the rotation, with Jaar Jurrjens (acquired in the Renteria deal with Detroit) a plus at #5. They’ll be in the wild card hunt before losing out to someone in the NL West.

    3. Philadelphia Phillies

    My oh my can they hit the ball, helped out by that bandbox home ballpark. No first baseman will knock in more runs than Ryan Howard; ditto Chase Utley at second, who enjoys the largest offensive advantage over his peers than players at any other position. MVP Jimmy Rollins is set for another 125 runs scored provided his hammies don’t snap, and Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz are offensive upgrades at the bottom of the order in platoon with Jason Werth and Glen Dobbs. But what kind of pitching is there behind young ace Cole Hamels? Why would this be the year Brett Myers puts it all together? There’s a much better chance this is the year Jamie Moyers finally isn’t crafty enough to get people out varying speeds between 75-85 mph and spotting the corners. Kyle Kendrick? Adam Eaton? Does that sound like a playoff staff to you? And who is the genius who thinks Brad Lidge closing at Citizens Bank is a good idea?

    4. Florida Marlins

    The Marlins rebuild their roster for the same reason people pick scabs, because it hurts so good. The latest rip-it-raw swap brought them Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera) and pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and will pay dividends (and save money) in about two years. By then, five-tool shortstop Hanley Ramirez and emerging star Jeremy Hermida will probably be on the trading block. Like Washington, Florida has no pitching to speak of besides closer Kevin Gregg, unless Miller develops in a hurry. Unlike Washington, there are a quartet of proven bats (Uggla, Willingham besides Hanley and Hermida), a breakout candidate in Mike Jacobs, and an intriguing comeback in the making with Jorge Cantu. Seventy-five wins would be an accomplishment.

    5. Washington Nationals

    Yes, there are some head cases that GM Jim Bowden has added to the ballclub, chief among them the wonderfully named duo of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. Together with hot corner stud Ryan Zimmerman, they will determine whether the Nats are a team on the rise or whether a new stadium is the only excitement. The pitching staff is horrible, and without the spacious confines of RFK Stadium to protect them this season.

    National League Central

    1. Chicago Cubs

    The Cubs will win a weak divison because of the depth of their starting rotation. Carloz Zambrano throws too many pitches but is a rubber-armed horse who can handle the work. Rich Hill and Ted Lilly are a pair of nasty lefties, and Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster are higher-class retreads than one usually finds in the hindquarters of #s 4 + 5. Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol all possess quality stuff but does Wood have the stamina, Howry enough left, or Marmol the maturity to be the closer, or will it a baton-passing committee. Offensively, you’ve got to figure Soriano and Lee will have better years, Ramirez is uber reliable, and the 30-year old Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will have Cubs fans gleefully spitting in each others’ faces pronouncing his name. Center fielder Felix Pie and catcher Geovany Soto look like a bright future up the middle, but the double play duo of Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa could use a makeover.

    2. Milwaukee Brewers

    Last year’s Brewers became one of my favorite teams. Portly Prince Fielder swatting home runs to left, right, and center yet finding his .618 slugging percentage only second best on the team thanks to the .634 posted by the Hebrew Hammer and reigning Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun. The impossibly lanky Corey Hart knocking 24 dingers and swiping 23 bases as a six-and-a-half-foot leadoff man. JJ Hardy hitting a ton early and a few feathers’ worth down the stretch. Turnbow and Cordero tossing gas in the late innings. And yet the Brewers faded down the stretch and finished a titch above .500 at 83-79. The reason was defense: Fielder and Braun were as bad with the glove as they were accomplished with the bat. Despite the acquisition of Mike Cameron to vacuum up flies in center, swapping Braun and Bill Hall at outfield and third base isn’t going to get it done, and ancient Jason Kendall is about as bad as roly-poly Johnny Estrada behind the plate. Cordero is gone as the closer, replaced by the flammable Eric Gagne, and the rotation relies too much on young ace-to-be Yovani Gallardo and injury-prone Ben Sheets. Nevertheless, Fielder and Braun will continue to pound the ball, Rickie Weeks is due for his injury-free breakout at second, and Hart will prove last year was no fluke. Once again they’ll be loads of fun to watch and finish second behind the Cubs.

    3. Cincinnati Reds

    Another potent offense, especially if new manager Dusty Baker can change his spots and give heralded rooks like 1B Joey Votto and OF Jay Bruce 500 at-bats apiece. Alas, Bruce starts the season in the minors and Votto may platoon with Scott Hatteberg, a walking anti-Moneyball argument. Brandon Phillips and Jeff Keppinger both have some sock and decent gloves in the middle infield (although the Reds’ bandbox ballpark overrates Phillips’ vaunted offense), and Adam Dunn is a walk-homer-or-strikeout suspense machine who churns up divots trying to play left field. Will Ken Griffey Jr. maintain his improbable semi-healthy ways? Can Bronson Arroyo rebound will Aaron Harang maintains to provide the Reds with a bona fide 1-2 punch in the rotation? Can the ex-Brewer Cordero, a notorious flyball pitcher, retain his sanity (and that of his manager) closing in the Great American Ballpark? And can Votto and Bruce get a chance to compete for Rookie of the Year? If more than half of these questions are answered yes, the Reds will leapfrog the Brewers for second and perhaps even bag a pennant if the Cubs falter.

    4. Pittsburgh Pirates

    If they aren’t the most futile franchise in professional sports over the past two decades, than other franchises are certa
    inly losing quietly. But there’s hope here (not that we haven’t thought that before) in the trio of still-young arms in the starting rotation, led by lefty ace-in-the-making Tom Gorzelanny and buttressed by fireballing righty Ian Snell, with lefty Paul Maholm a decent #3 who won 10 games for a team that only trimphed 69 times last season. This is a make-or-break year for once promising lefty Zach Duke and Matt Morris probably doesn’t have anything but guile left. But the bullpen is in good hands with Matt Capps and Damaso Marte–don’t look now, but the Bucs have the second best pitching staff in the division. The lineup isn’t fearsome by any means, especially if Jason Bay doesn’t rebound from last year’s pratfall and 1B Adam Laroche gets off to another miserable start. I think both will rebound, Freddie Sanchez will continue to rake and Ronnie Paulino will develop into a quality catcher. But the rest of the lineup is forgettable. Every journey begins with a single step. Pittsburgh’s is fourth place.

    5. Houston Astros

    Their 4-7 hitters (Berkman/Carlos Lee/Tejada/Wiggington) sport classic beer-league physiques (I’m assuming an unjuiced Tejada flabs out a bit) and I’m anticipating that one or more of them will go with a major injury this season as a result. Roy Oswalt is a gritty sonavabitch on the mound and Jose Valverde gives them a closer unscarred by postseason failure, but overall the pieces don’t add up here. Hunter Pence and catcher J.R. Towles are potentially exciting young players but the Astros are neither contending nor rebuilding. They’re stuck.

    6. St. Louis Cardinals

    If Albert Pujols defies the odds and plays like Albert Pujols for an entire season, last place will be a foolish prediction for the Cards. But the deafening whispers are that Pujols still isn’t right from last year’s assortment of injuries, and if a dreadfully slow starting lineup with an injury-besotted pitching staff starts out 12-26 or something, Pujols may go under the knife in May. Then last place is inevitable.

    National League West

    1. Arizona Diamondbacks

    Their lineup is studded with young talent, their pitching staff is loaded even if Randy Johnson can’t come back, and together that should be enough to squeak by in the NL’s toughest divsion. Leading off is Chris Young, who hit 32 homers and stole 27 bases as 23-year old rookie. At short is 25-year old Stephen Drew, who knocked in 60 runs despite hitting an anemic .238. At the bottom of the order is Justin Upton, age 20, an offensive stick of dynamite who many scouts openly tout as a future superstar. It’s unreasonable to expect another monster year from vet Eric Byrnes, but corner infielders Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds should compensate by upping their power numbers this season. And then there’s the pitching staff, led by arguably the game’s best 1-2 rotation combo, sinkerballer Brandon Webb and last year’s AL All Star game starter Dan Haren (acquired in a deal with Oakland). Micah Owings allowed a very respectable 1.28 WHIP last year (especially for a #3 starter) and lefty Doug Davis is an asset slotted at #4. Can the Big Unit loom large once again? If so, the Snakes could win 100 games.

    2. Colorado Rockies

    The Diamondbacks are best and the Giants are worst, but the middle three teams could finish in any order, and the best of the trio will earn the wild card. I’ll go with the Rockies because they’re not as young as people might imagine (and hence have more players in their prime) and because the fun generated by last year’s tsunami surge to the World Series has probably been a great off-season motivator. Matt Holliday might be ready to take over for Vlad Guerrero as the best hitting outfielder in baseball, and Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe are Vanilla personalities with Cherries Garcia rbi totals. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki deserved to be ROY instead of Ryan Braun by dint of grabbing the mantle of team leader and not letting a slow start at the plate deter fabulous defensive play throughout the season. Oh, and he came on enough to knock in 99 runs. This is a Rockies team that can hit on the road as well as at Coors (which isn’t quite the high-scoring palace it used to be before they put they deadened the balls in the humidor). Nevertheless, I put them behind the Diamondbacks, and in dogfight with the Dodgers and Pads, because they have the division’s fourth best pitching. Count me as dubious that closer Manny Corpas will post 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP again, or that manager Clint Hurdle can make another stretch run with everyone in the pen pitching lights out and two kids, Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez, duplicating last year’s numbers. Put simply, the Rockies caught lightning in a bottle from August through October last year, and the hitting was more legit than the pitching. But Steve Francis had arguably the best season of any hurler in Rockies’ history, and that was real. Righty Aaron Cook should stay healthy, and even if Corpas takes a step back, he’ll be pretty good. Whoever wins the NL East or Central won’t want to face this team in the playoffs.

    3. San Diego Padres

    The conventional wisdom is that the Padres are all-pitch, no-hit, but there is more spark in that lineup than the conventional thinkers realize. Playing half their games in the toughest park for hitters in all of baseball, shortstop Kahlil Greene swatted 27 homers and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff overcame a horrible start to launch another 18. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had 30. Greene is 28 this year, the other two 26; all figure to take another step before hitting their prime. And Josh Bard likewise is a promising hitter due for an upgrade in his rbi’s. The problem is age in a spacious outfield, specifically erstwhile stars Jim Edmonds in center and Brian Giles in right, both now well past their apex. They will test the patience of current Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, the tall and talented Chris Young, and the gifted but frequently injured third starter, Randy Wolf. Greg Maddux is your everyday 347-game winner as #4 starter, and Justin Germano rounds out a deep rotation pitching in very friendly confines at Petco. In the bullpen, the abiding question is whether Trevor Hoffman’s late season meltdown finally marks the beginning of the end of his Hall of Fame career. If so, superb setup men Cla Meredith and Heath Bell have to prove one of them can take it to the next level.

    4. Los Angeles Dodgers

    I was tempted to put the Dodgers second out of affection for new skipper Joe Torre, freed from the once and future Bronx Zoo at Yankee Stadium. But despite a bevy of promising youngsters–especially 1b James Loney, Of Matt Kemp and 3B Andy Laroche–and the league’s best catcher in 25-year old Russell Martin, LA is still a year or two away from truly blossoming. I mean, this is a team whose home run leader was Jeff Kent, who hit 20–half his age. Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal are go-go speedsters at the top of the order, but giving fat contracts to a couple of poor man’s Maury Wills isn’t the way to win in 2008. Free agent signee Andrux Jones will help at both the plate and in the field–expect a big bounceback from his .222/26/94 disappointment. And the Big Blue has the kind of deep and talented bullpen that Torre craved and never had his final years in New York, what with closer Takashi Saito and lefty-righty setup men Joe Beimel and Big Jonathan Broxton. Like the lineup, the rotation has depth and talent but no drop-dead superstar. The Dodgers shape up to be the best 4th place team in baseball.

    5. San Francisco Giants

    Speaking of all-pitch, no-hit, the post-Bonds Giants have the worst batting order in all of baseball, the decrepit keystone combo of Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel, has-beens like Rich Aurilia and Randy Winn, and either Aaron Rowand or Bengie Molina batting cleanup. But the pitching is rock solid, with budding star Tim Lincecum and tough-luck kid Matt Cain (7-16 despite a 3.65 ERA and 1.26 WHIP) threatening to supplant big bucks Barry Zito as the ace. Make no mistake, howev
    er: This is a baseball team going nowhere fast, stuck in purgatory as their karmic payback for enabling Bonds.