The Rake Magazine

Tag: playoffs

  • Spurs Scrabble for Survival

    AP Photo/Matt Slocum

    It occurs to me that the best way to recap the first three games of the Spurs-Lakers series is to point out all the places I was wrong. There are plenty of examples so let’s get to it.

    * A high scoring series

    When I looked over the various matchups between San Antonio and LA, I foresaw a lot of offense. But last night’s combined 187 points has been the most prolific game of the three. Part of this is because the series has been played at a pace more to SA’s liking, which spells trouble for their current one-game deficit. Part of it is because both teams are missing more open looks than is customary (and it is different people different nights, although Odom and Parker have not been able to exploit what I perceived as their mismatches), a likely sign of fatigue and/or pressure. But the bulk of it is simply great defense, particularly by the Lakers in their Game Two blowout. I have never seen Parker’s penetration stymied so effectively, not only by Derek Fisher but by the bigs doubling and switching up coverages on the pick and roll.

    * A loooong series for Derek Fisher

    Fisher has not shone in Games One and Three, but he also hasn’t been toasted by Parker the way I thought it would happen. Again, the Lakers’ superb team D had a lot to do with that in Game Two, but Fisher’s foot speed has been better than I expected, and the vast improvement by Jordan Farmar, who has found his confidence again, is getting him more rest. If he and Farmar can cut the distance in point guard production between the two teams, the Lakers are in good shape.

    * Kobe would toast Bowen and Udoka equally

    Maybe it is just a prejudice against gritty, slow-footed vets, because I also underestimated Bruce Bowen’s value in this series, and overestimated how much Udoka could spell him. Doug Collins pointed out last night that Kobe salivates over getting Udoka as his matchup, and even as he spoke, Pops was getting Bowen up to guard the MVP. I think Bowen slipped a bit on defense during the regular season, and wasn’t that effective in either of the first two rounds. But his ability to slow Kobe down a titch and make him work for points and dimes has given San Antonio hope. Given Kobe’s maturity as a distributor, it is crucial that the double teams aren’t automatic and predictable. Bowen’s inexorable hustle has made that possible–and he’s even hit a few of those patented corner treys of his.

    * The Spurs would trade off nights from Ginobili for off nights from Odom

    Wrong again. Ginobili’s value to his team was borne out again last night–his catalytic role on the Spurs is vastly greater than Odom’s versatile and important, but not crucial, contributions to the Lakers, where he remains a distinct third option. That said, if Odom does start to get his act together, San Antonio is in trouble. What is frustrating for him is that he’s missing makeable shots.

    But back to Ginobili for a minute. First of all, the guy comes up big at the most important moments, giving San Antonio someone akin to a poor man’s Kobe. That’s huge. The fact that neither Detroit nor Boston boasts an equivalent presence (do you still believe Billups is Mr. Big Shot? and who on the Celtics side–Paul Pierce?) is one of many reasons why the trophy will likely be held aloft by a Western Conference team in about two weeks.

    But if you are looking for a reason why the Spurs are still in this series–and are a 18-minute collapse away from being up 2-1, check out how well Tim Duncan and the trio of Oberto-Thomas-Horry have defended Pau Gasol and Odom. Now Odom’s problems are becoming well documented–he’s getting ripped by most of the Laker media, with some justification. After shooting well over 50% in the first two rounds, he’s shot 12-33 in the three games thus far, or barely over 36%, this despite the fact that the Spurs don’t have a natural counter for his size and quickness. But Gasol’s underachievement has arguably been just as profound. He also was much better than 50% for the playoffs coming into the Spurs series, and the dip to 46.5% (20-43 FG) is exacerbated by the facts that his shot selection has been generally solid–he’s missing makeable attempts–and that he has only gotten to the free throw line 5 times in the three games, after shooting 59 FTA in the previous 10 playoff games. He’s also grabbing two fewer rebounds per game, his assists rate has been cut in half, and his defense on Duncan has been, as expected, inconsistent. These dips bear watching as Gasol continues much deeper into the postseason than he has ever been before.

    Before we look at the Spurs side of the ledger, I want to point out something about Jordan Farmar and Sashia Vujacic, who provided such a great lift off the bench in Games One and Two, but much less so last night: They’ve both been gunning fools. Give Farmar credit for being LA’s third-leading scorer (10.7 ppg) in this series despite averaging only 20.7 mpg, a testament to his gaudy 11-21 FG shooting. But Farmar, the backup point guard, has zero assists in 62 minutes. Even on a team where Kobe Bryant justifiably hogs the ball and which features the triangle offense that reduces the importance of a point guard, you’d think Farmar would have dropped at least one dime. Maybe there’s a connection between the low shooting percentages of Gasol and Odom and the jack-it-up philosophy of Farmar and Vujacic, who rank 8th and 7th, respectively, in assists-per-minutes played among the nine Lakers who logged double digit minutes of court time thus far in the series (Vlad Rad is last).

    By contrast, little used Brent Barry came off the bench last night and delivered four assists in 21 and a half minutes without a turnover, chipped in a pair of treys and was plus +11. Properly derided for his shooting, Horry’s defense on Odom and tenacity in the paint got him plus +11 in 18 minutes. Add to the bigness of the Big 3–Ginobili had 30 and sparked the resurgence with a pair of first quarter treys; Duncan pulled a 20-20 game (actually 22-21) and is averaging more than 18 board per game in the series, and Parker was a game-best plus +26–and these savvy veteran role players have an acute appreciation of what is required to bag a ring. The Lakers are without question the more talented of the two teams, especially in the depth of their talent. But with the obvious exception of Kobe, and Fisher, they don’t know what it takes to win this deep into the postseason.

    Specifically, they didn’t realize Pops would emphasize nothing but offense–an unprecedented move for the coach–in the practice between Games Two and Three, to counter the sliding traps and pick-and-roll D that Phil Jackson had instituted so effectively. And they didn’t appreciate how many times San Antonio has been counted out in the past few years, only to come up big when it counts. It will really count in Game Four tomorrow night. Will Kobe decide to seize the game with a 30-shot effort, something his miraculous 4th quarter stint in Game Three indicates might be a way to vanquish the Spurs in San Antonio, or will he continue distributing and hope his backcourt mates follow his lead and that his front line finally comes to play in the paint? I’m guessing a little of both, and that the wild cards for the two ballclubs–Ginobili and Odom–will determine the winner.

    But, as we noted at the outset, I’ve been wrong before.

     

    Tomorrow, a look at the Celts-Pistons after four games.

  • Many Rivers to Cross

    Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

    The impatience and exasperation leaking out of commentator Hubie Brown last night ratified my impressions of the Celtics-Cavs series. Brown, who was actually courtside covering the Lakers’ inevitable takedown of the Jazz, not only felt compelled enough to detour for an analysis of Boston-Cleveland, but broke the unwritten commandment that ex-coaches don’t directly rip current members of the fraternity. It is on the Boston coaching staff, Brown flatly stated, to figure out how to get three premium scorers off enough to reach 90 points in a game.

    Think about that for a moment: A team with Garnett, Pierce and Allen in this era of hand-check fouls not getting to 90 in 5 of the 6 games versus Cleveland thus far (Brown mistakenly thought they hadn’t done it once, probably seeing that they are well below a 90 point average in the series). Now some of this clampdown should be credited to Cavs’ coach Mike Brown, a Gregg Popovich disciple who routinely gets ripped for his unimaginative offense while those same pundits discount that Brown’s gameplans took his team to the Finals last year and are a game away from the conference finals this season. But Brown’s point is the salient one: On a ballclub with three players who each had been their team’s #1 offensive option for years and years, why can’t Doc Rivers and his crew figure out a way to put the ball in the damn bucket?

    Looking at the numbers more carefully damns Rivers a little deeper. If the Celts blow this series, his decision to ride Sam Cassell instead of Eddie House will have shamrock adherents cursing into their brews for years to come. Yes, the Celts need to spread the floor. But Cassell is more a midrange jumpshooter and post-up guy, and he is waaaay too slow to play effective defense. Eddie House has legit three point range–indeed, that’s his specialty. So instead of playing House and stretching the Cleveland D, Rivers goes to Sam I Am, who wants to play it cute off the dribble and post-up and lean-in, etc. Big mistake.

    Then, in the most informative of all the "Wired" comments viewers have been able to glean in these playoffs, we hear Doc Rivers cautioning all his players, but particularly his young point guard Rajon Rondo, from taking too many "heroic shots" during the game, presumably meaning high-risk, high-reward missives. Is that really what you want to impart to your high-strung 22-year old point guard in his first-ever playoff run?

    Here’s a news flash for Rivers and his assistants: The Cavs’ bigs, especially Joe Smith, are showing hard and deep into the perimeter on pick and rolls. LeBron has effectively locked up top scorer Paul Pierce. Garnett is being allowed some success on midrange and in the paint–he’s shooting 56.7% for the series, while his teammates are clanking away at 37.4%. But the Cavs have decided Ray Allen isn’t going to get any open looks from outside, and Allen, either by reason of temperament, age, injury, or whatever, has gone along with the plan and not managed to score, or even shoot very often, He’s tied for first with KG on the Celts with 232 minutes played in this series but is 4th on the team in field goal attempts and 8th in FGA per minute! And maybe that reticence is a good idea, given that he’s only converting 34.5% of his shots, and just 18.2% from outside the arc.

    In other words, this is a hell of a time for the coach to be telling the other guy in the backcourt, the impressionable Rondo, to be careful about his shot selection. And then subbing in another guy, Cassell, who had the will, and the stones, but, alas, no longer the talent, to be heroic.

    Rivers finally caught a clue in last night’s mud-wrestling Game Six defeat, but too little and too late. After a nice breakout in Game Five, Rondo was backed to being cowed–he took 4 shots in 30:33–but, ta da!, we saw some extended time for Eddie House. And whaddaya know, he came in and immediately stretched the Cavs’ defense. In fact with House sharing the backcourt with Allen, and KG in the low block, the Celtics were the better team–specifically ten points better, in a combined 11:57. Take KG out of the equation and consider just House and Allen sharing the backcourt: the Celts were still a plus +16 in 16:13.

    Yes, that’s right, with two outside shooting threats and a vital low post option, Cleveland’s defense is less effective. And yes, you need that high-low critical mass. KG with Allen was plus +8 in 38:09 and a whopping minus -15 in the mere 4:33 Allen wasn’t on the floor with him. But House and Allen make each other much more effective too. They were plus +16 in the mere 16:13 they played together–nor was it a fluke of the game flows, as they were at least plus +4 in each of three separate stints together. Ah but without Allen to draw perimeter attention, House was minus -9 in 1:58.

    Each game is different of course. But the newfound aggressiveness Pierce has shown, even when LeBron is on him, demonstrates what he thinks of Rivers’ "no heroic shots" mantra. To prevent his team from an outright mutiny, Rivers needs to play House more often and/or give Rondo the green light to shoot when the Cavs’ D is keyed on KG and Allen and LeBron is checking Pierce. That’s blatantly obvious. Rivers also has to be thankful he didn’t ruin House’s confidence by essentially shelving him the first five games of the series (when House played a grand total of 11 minutes).

    Some other observations about Game Six and the series in general…

    * Rivers was absolutely right to bitch about the charging call on Pierce in the final minutes, a crucial whistle that denied the Celts’ comeback. Replays clearly showed LeBron reaching in, and the fact that both men flopped dramatically–you’d think each was equipped with reverse magnetism on the play–in no way should detract from the substantial contact that was clearly initiated by LeBron.

    * All season long I have been a staunch defender of "the other two" in the Celts’ starting lineup, and have seen that faith justified by both Rondo and center Kendrick Perkins. But while Rondo has remained impressive (if predictably inconsistent), Perkins has had a terrible postseason, with his lack of quickness apparent and his grit lacking in the offensive rebounding battles the Cavs keep winning. A big game from Perkins–not scoring, so much as boxing out and staying out of foul trouble–would be huge in Game Seven.

    * I’m not the first person who has said this (or at least it seems so obvious that I’m sure others have alluded to it) but where the Cavs have an uber alpha dog in LeBron, the Celts have a trio of betas as their semi go-to guys. As good as KG has been in this series, I’ve seen a couple of short-armed jumpers in the paint in the 4th quarter. Allen has little or no inclination to rustle himself out of his mental barcalounger and try to take over. And Pierce is meeting his match and then some trying to contain and then rid himself of LeBron. Bottom line, as good as KG-Pierce-Allen have been throughout their careers, Garnett’s Game Seven versus Sacramento four years ago remains the top example of one of these three seizing the game by the throat and delivering the victory. This entire series has felt like the Cavs scrabbling uphill, hell bent for triumph, while the Celts are trying to avoid embarassment. The question is, if they thrash the Cavs (or even beat them by more than a last-second bucket) tomorrow, does two of these do-or-die survivals finally get them over the mental hump in time for the Pistons?

    Final note: I haven’t forgotten about the other three series, and especially Game Seven for the Spurs and Hornets. I’ll be posting more in the next day or two.