Year: 2007

Cleveland Cavaliers (2) vs. Detroit Pistons (1)

If I had any guts, I’d call the Cavs in 6 or 7. That is what my gut tells me–the same gut that said the Bulls would need no more than 5 or 6 games to knock off these same Pistons. Obviously, there is something about Detroit–the overwhelming consensual favorite to reach the NBA Finals–that I disrespect. Naturally I’ve thought about it a fair bit during the Bulls series–having your analysis turned into foolishness will do that–and I think it has to do with believing the Pistons have bought into Flip Saunders’ multi-pass, high jumper, low turnover, low free throw offense. It is a marvelous thing to behold, and the Pistons play it superbly. But missed shots are nearly as injurious as turnovers, and sometimes those jumpers won’t fall. If and when that happens, do the Pistons have enough resourcefulness via their defense and their one-on-one capabilities to gut it out? And if not, do the Cavs have sufficient offensive firepower to make them pay?

There are two ways to look at the Bulls series. One, the Pistons hauled off and belted Chicago in the mouth twice with a pair of absolutely sublime efforts at both ends of the court. Having gone up 2-0, they had no respect left, especially when they just flipped a switch in the second half of Game Three and won going away, on the road. The next two tilts were the product of overconfidence and the Bulls playing for pride under a feisty coach.

Another way to look at it is that the youthful Bulls came out both a little nervous and a tad overconfident after sweeping Miami. Detroit was more experienced and better prepared and just undressed Chicago, twice. The Bulls team that ran and shot so well all season and then steamrolled Miami thus never really found their footing in this series until it was too late. When Chicago did settle into what was previously a normal groove, they proved capable of hanging with Detroit and extending them to the limit if not winning outright.

I subscribe to the second theory–that the real Bulls never showed up, and that guys like Nocioni and Ben Gordon were exposed mentally as well as physically. But if the Pistons dismantle the Cavs the way they did Chicago, even a stubborn skeptic like me has to cop to their worthiness to battle San Antonio (and lose, but that’s another story).

This will be a good test for Detroit because Cleveland presents a different challenge than did the Bulls. I thought Chicago would simply be too quick for Detroit up and down the court. That may have been accurate, had we seen the regular 2006-07 Bulls. But what isn’t true is that Detroit lacked Chicago’s bench. Jason Maxiell and Lindsay Hunter and of course Antonio McDyess, who is a bench player the way Ginobili is a bench player, all had very good games versus the Bulls. But what they don’t do is shoot lights out. The starters, especially Hamilton-Billup-Prince, are the key to Saunders’ ball movement, jump-shooting game, because when any of those three are open, you expect the ball to go through the net. The other key is that Saunders’ offense divides up shots among different players, and having that trio all be reliable is a huge boon to the system. And no, I’m not forgetting ‘Sheed, who is less midrange and more paint-or-trey and thus the flexible one of the quartet that scores.

So, why are the Cavs a challenging matchup? Because ever since Pavlovic was inserted into the starting lineup, Cleveland can defend the midrange jumper better than anyone this side of San Antonio. Their quickness is less about running up and down 94 feet, like the Bulls, and more lateral and quick-bursting while defending in the half-court. And that kind of quickness and length may be more troubling to Detroit.

Two other factors make the Cavs an intriguing opponent for the Pistons. The first, of course, is LeBron, who is second only to Kobe Bryant is being a guy to just explode seven different ways and destroy a team (occasionally his own). LeBron was if anything too share-oriented with his teammates against New Jersey, and will probably need to do less driving and kicking and more penetrating against the Pistons. But the greater point is, this is really the litmus test for Cleveland, who have played a couple of mediocre opponents thus far and really have no identity with even loyal NBA fans outside of northern Ohio. This is where LeBron can make his statement, in other words, after a fitful season that saw him mail it in for much of the early months, and only occasionally turn it on in the past six to eight weeks. I don’t think he should be a ball hog, and if he wants to devote more energy to clamping down Detroit’s shooters beside Larry Hughes and Pavlovic, that makes sense. But he has to make a superstar’s impact on some level if the Cavs are to pull the upset.

The second intriguing factor is Z Ilgauskas. Detroit really has no good matchup for him, but then again neither did Washington and New Jersey, and Z was hardly the force he could and should have been in those rounds. He shot a very mediocre 48 percent and got just 11 points and 9 rebounds in 33 minutes against the Nets. More disturbing, he shot fewer field goals than anyone in the starting lineup, including Pavlovic; half as many FGA as Hughes, and ten fewer shots per game than LeBron. He also averaged only 4 free throws per game, and was outrebounded for the series by teammate Drew Gooden. For the Cavs to topple Detroit, unless LeBron pulls a Kobe, Z must give them about 18 and 12, and Mike Brown is crazy if he doesn’t explore ways of making it happen. No more shrinking violet in the paint. The Pistons are vulnerable in precious few places, and getting it to the big man when the superstar is double and triple teamed in one way for that to happen.

Detroit has been very successful at running the 3-2 matchup zone that Saunders perfected in Minnesota. It was by far his best defensive allignment with the Wolves, but it also taxed the hell out of KG, the man at the top of the key in what occasionally was a 1-2-2 instead of a 3-2. The Pistons are deadly with it because Tayshaun Prince is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, an indefatigable defender with a seven-foot wingspan who just happens to also be one of their best clutch shooters (better than Billups and Rip, in my book). If Detroit’s zone is clicking, expect Lebron to try and take over by himself more often, and for either many points or many turnovers to ensue. James vs. The Zone is one of the great subplots.

The question becomes, who guards Hamilton? Pavlovic had a marvelous series against Vince Carter and is a little too balky to guard Billups. LeBron and Prince will match up on each other. But Pavlovic is going to discover that stopping Rip Hamilton in the playoffs is tougher than stopping Vince Carter, for reasons of mental toughness and a better supporting cast, for starters. Hughes vs. Billups is a great matchup, as Hughes is a gambler and Billups likes to make gamblers pay. Again, if Cleveland can force nearly as many turnovers as they commit, this will be a tight series. And the turnovers, if they happen, will be on the perimeter.

For the Bulls series, I predicted that Rasheed Wallace wouldn’t be able to handle the banging of PJ Brown and the gritty annoyance of Nocioni. But neither PJ nor Nocioni was able to do too much and part of the credit goes to ‘Sheed (the rest to Saunders’ system). Also, ‘Sheed kept his head. That said, if I was entering a pool on most likely combatants for a playoffs setto, ‘Sheed and Gooden would come in just a hair behind Harpring and Bowen as my pick to duke it out.

This will be a tough, physical series–duh, it’s the conference finals, and the unphysical teams have gone home. But again, my gut tells me that Detroit is the least physical of the four remaining squads. Will that matter in this round?

Hamilton, Prince and Billups are, in the end, very tough to pick against when you are staying inside the Eastern Conference. Of the variables Cleveland needs, I think LeBron will explode once or twice, that Hughes will embarrass Billups once or twice, and that Z might even get off once or twice. Cleveland will even win twice or thrice as a result. The gut says the Cavs, the head overrules and chooses Detroit in 6 or 7.

San Antonio Spurs (3) vs. Utah Jazz (5)

This will be a war, very physical, but don’t for a moment believe it will be boring. Neither the Spurs nor the Jazz are a plodding team, both feature creatively intelligent big men and freakishly athletic ‘tweeners. The war will be in two places: on penetration and pick-and-rolls in the half-court, where the Spurs’ defense doesn’t give an inch and the Spurs penetrators are especially fearless; and under the boards, where the Jazz battle for position and gang-bang on the glass better than any NBA team. But there was also be some gorgeous ballet, both in transition and in the synergistic execution displayed by teams doing the bidding of the league’s two most demanding coaches, Gregg Popovich and Jerry Sloan. Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his Hall of Fame career.

Let’s get to the keys, beginning with Andrei Kirilenko’s ability to guard Manu Ginobili. Yes, Tim Duncan killed the Suns in the second round, but that was expected. How well the Spurs played when Duncan sat and the keys to the offense were flipped to Manu was the more stealthy dagger. Ginobili possesses one of the most cherished virtues in sports, the ability to elevate his game in pressure situations. Those who claim players don’t get better under pressure so much as maintain their composure and not get worse have never watched Ginobili for an extended period of time. This is a player who lives for the biggest stage, and now has the confidence of knowing he has consistently delivered. His career, internationally and in the NBA, lacks the extreme drama of Big Shot Rob Horry’s game-winning jumpers, but has actually been more influential to his team’s winning–the window on his crunchtime prowess extends long before the last five seconds of play. The Spurs don’t win a ring in 2005 without him, and I don’t think they beat the Suns this postseason either.

But assuming Sloan is smart enough to devote his best perimeter defender to stopping Ginobili, Manu will have his hands full with Kirilenko, who snuffed Stephen Jackson pretty thoroughly in the Golden State series. What’s easy to forget about Ginobili is that he’s 6-6, larger than most guys who try to contain him on the perimeter. He is also physically very wiry, without fear, and a superb physical improviser, all of which make him one of the premiere penetrators in the game. Watch Ginobili compared to Parker, a pretty fair penetrator in his own right. But watch how vertical Parker is; it is all speed, and his finishes are almost always banks off the glass right at the baseline. Ginobili is a wender, continually feinting, crossover dribbling, cutting across the lane, and varying his approach from pullback to clear his shot to barge into his opponent to draw the foul. You don’t know if the conclusion will be a banker, a finger-roll, a teardrop, or a melodramatic crashing into the photographers along the baseline as he gets “crushed” goading the foul. How do you defend that? How about with a lightning-quick, 6-9 gazelle with a seven-footer’s wingspan who prides himself on defense, loves to block shots and has a pretty fair sense of timing and intuitive intelligence? That’s Kirilenko. If he can stay out of foul trouble (and Ginobili is a master at drawing them) and make the Spurs pay for sitting Duncan–preventing the Big Fundamental from regenerating after taking the multi-faceted pounding he’ll get in constant small doses that are far more taxing than anything he received versus Denver or Phoenix–than the Jazz have a shot.

Two other keys for Utah to make this competitive: Their two clutch outside shooters, Mehmet Okur and Derek Fisher, have to come through. I’m guessing that when it matters, Horry will be on Okur and Tony Parker will be guarding Fisher. Both are underrated defenders, but both can be beaten. Horry is a step slow and undersized in the paint, so if Okur can have some success down low and then move outside, he could create problems. Parker used to be a real liability on D, but his play on Allen Iverson was a bit of a revelation. I’m guessing Bruce Bowen guards Deron Williams though, putting Parker on Fisher, who will pick and choose his spots better than Iverson, lulling Parker, who is prone to mental lapses on D more than any other Spur starter, into freeing him up for crucial treys. If Fisher and/or Okur can get off from outside, once again the Jazz have a shot.

And why, otherwise, do they have no shot? Well, one reason is because
Tim Duncan is playing the best basketball of his career. I mean, 9 blocks in Game Six the other night, not to mention all the defensive rotations and quality rebounds. Duncan had David Robinson beside him in the paint for his first two rings, and the third one owed as much to his caped crusaders in the backcourt, Parker and Ginobili, as he hobbled around at about 80 percent. The Duncan we are seeing now may be a step slower, but he is tougher and wiser, and playing like the classic centers of yore, back in the days of Wilt and Russell and Nate Thurmond and Wes Unseld. He’s got a little of all those guys in him now. In fact it is absurd that Amare Stoudamire was an All-NBA center this season when it was obvious to anyone watching that Duncan is really a center instead of a power forward, and the best center in the game at that.

Remember when most of Duncan’s points came on those 15-footers off the glass? Now, TD is much more of a back-to-the-basket guy, still using the glass but mostly as a culmination of the spin moves. He can still face up and then deliver facials, as Kurt Thomas discovered in the third quarter of Game Five, the unfortunate suspension game. But more often than not now, Duncan is the low post way-station and Oberto or Elson is a bit part in the whole drama.

It is hard not to admire Carlos Boozer’s emergence this season, and his ability to score over Yao was the determining factor in Utah’s first round victory. But Duncan is a very tough matchup for Boozer, who will also see some of Oberto, and unless he gets some calls from the refs and gets Duncan in foul trouble, I don’t foresee him being a positive factor for the Jazz.

That leaves us with Bowen and Deron Williams. I count myself as one of Bill Simmons’ biggest fans, but the “Sports Guy”‘s calling out Bowen as a manifestly dirtier player than other NBA enforcers was in my opinion itself a cheap shot. Simmons made a big deal out of Bowen being a nonentity in the league before deciding he had to do whatever it takes to stay in the league. Hmmm, sounds a lot like the Suns Raja Bell to me. In fact there are a lot of guys like that in the NBA, although most don’t play with the ferocity of a Bowen or a Bell. Are both of them punishing, physical defenders? Yup. Dirty players? Yeah, I guess sometimes, if you want to talk about needing to get in guys’ heads with niggling little cheap shots and bullshit ploys. And for Bowen it certainly worked with Steve Nash, the normally kind and unflappable competitor who in the last two games was hollering about being fouled by Bowen when most of the time he wasn’t. Was Bowen’s knee to Nash’s groin a cheap shot? Yup. Was Simmons right to compare it to Amare and Diaw getting suspended to prove the rule about leaving the bench is bullshit? Yes, he was. But to single out Bowen as being somehow much dirtier and worse than others–anybody remember Sam Mitchell playing D for the Wolves? How about John Stockton, Mr. Clutch and Grab, who wasn’t above raising his knee when someone was coming into his pick?–was off base.

One thing for sure, you won’t hear Jerry Sloan bitching about Bowen (un less he’s getting desperate or knows it might work in psychological warfare), because that is exactly the way Sloan played, and his has molded the Jazz in that image. You want t6 watch a physical, borderline dirty player, check out Matt Harpring, who, guaranteed, will receive at least one flagrant foul during this series.

So, what does it all add up to? I can pretty much repeat what I said at the end of my Suns-Spurs preview. (The Suns are a better team than the Jazz, but don’t match up quite as well with the Spurs so it evens out.) If the Jazz play their absolute A game it will be a hell of a series that could go 7 games and swing either way, with a slight advantage to the Spurs. But I am guessing that the Spurs will force the Jazz into their A- game and thus the series will result in San Antonio taking it in 5 or 6 games.