Year: 2007

With the Twins 2007 season less than 30 hours away, and with an itch to expand this blog beyond NBA basketball (which is why I chose the title On the Ball), I decided to solicit a pair of dear friends whose passion and knowledge of the game of baseball exceeds my own, and engage them in a “diablog” about the Twins and their place in the tough AL Central this year.

On board we have David Brauer, former sports columnist for the Twin Cities Readers back in the day, a reporter who staked himself out as the foremost authority on stadium/arena related issues and finances back in the 90s, and an all-around fount of info. Brauer takes his kids to see dozens of Twins, and was down in Arizona catching the tail end of the cactus league games when I tracked him down for this.

The other member of the trio is The Rake’s own Brad Zellar, author of the most definitive portrait to date of Ron Gardenhire (back when he was at City Pages), proprietor of the ever-enlightening Rake blog Warning Track Power, a man whose love of the game was instilled nearly from birth by his late father, a stone-cold diamond fan. Last, but certainly not least, Brad is a close personal friend of Uncle Jumbo.

In my not so humble opinion, this freewheeling exchange worked out so well that I’ll probably pester Brad and David to do it again at different points during the season. Feel free to add your own comments–and check out Warning Track Power throughout the season.

Britt Robson
Okay, here’s the thing that baffles me about most of the preseason Twins chatter I’ve heard and read thus far: Everyone seems to be gnashing their teeth over the starting rotation, when I think a much bigger concern is the team’s offense. Minnesota outscored their opponents by 118 runs last year. Which is more attainable this season, permitting only 683 runs or scoring as many as 801 again?

People forget that last year’s team sucked out loud last spring precisely because the hurlers were getting hammered out of the gate. Remember how Radke, Silva, Baker and Lohse were all gopher-balling, and serving up ropes that even shoring up the sclerotic left side of the infield D wouldn’t have remedied. Yes, the Twins have lost a major middle-rotation innings-eater in Radke, and, even more significantly, phenom Francisco Liriano. But all the appropriate kudos Radke received for his gritty hurling with a broken shoulder last year sort of obscured that his ERA was 4.32. True, Likriano’s was a gaudy 2.16, but again, in all the feel-good residue of the summer/autumn comeback, fans forget that Lohse and Baker had ERAs of 7.07 and 6.37, respectively, in slightly more combined innings than Liriano pitched. Put them together and you’ve got a spot in the rotation that again yields about a 4.50 ERA. So, the Twins have to replace two spots in the rotation with a pair of 4.40 hurlers. Who doesn’t see that happening with a mix-and-match assortment of questionable vets–Ortiz, Ponson, and Silva–and promising youngsters–Garza, Perkins, and Slowey–behind Santana and Bonser? Everyone knows at least two of those young’uns will be up before the All Star break, and if they’re not, it’s because the vets are stitching it together, getting it to the best bullpen in the American League, if not all of baseball, with the added advantage of having Reyes and Neshek around for the entire year. Bottom line, the Twins pitching could easily be the best in the division–only Detroit is comparable.

But the hitting? The Piranhas were a nice marketing ploy and a wonderful trivia question in 2015, but there is no way Punto and Tyner duplicate their seasons of a year ago. Castillo and White are creaky (White should be better, but not that much). There isn’t a quality utility middle infielder (Jeff Cirillo?) to spell the injury-prone Castillo and the slightly-built Bartlett, who wore out in 2/3 of a season a year ago. People are downplaying Joe Mauer’s injury, and granted it’s not on a weight-bearing bone, but it is one that gets flexed coming out of a crouch from a guy who stands 6-5. The Twins are one opponents’ stolen base attempt away from losing their cornerstone for a month or two.

Then there’s the question of whether Morneau and Cuddyer can duplicate their breakout seasons; historically, young, breakout players fall back a bit a year later. And you know Torii Hunter isn’t going to hit 30 dingers again unless he bats .250. The only real potential bonus for the offense is Kubel, and that’s hardly guaranteed.

Come October, I expect this offensive shortfall to put the Twins somewhere in the 80s, win-wise, which will be enough to keep us engaged in the wild card race but not enough to overcome Cleveland for the AL Central pennant. Just for the record, I incorrectly called Cleveland last year too, and for the Twinks to finish 3rd behind the White Sox. This time the 3rd place prediction has them getting edged by the Tigers, with the ChiSox imploding under crazy Ozzie Guillen and the thing that everyone is incorrectly bemoaning about the Twins–a paucity of quality starting pitching.

I await your huzzahs and brickbats…

Brad Zellar

I agree with Britt regarding the pitching situation, even if I have to
say that I think they made some seriously questionable rotation
decisions. It might or might not hurt them in the early going, but
over the last five years Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson
have demonstrated time and again that they can patch together enough
pitching around Santana to get the game to their reliably splendid
bullpen.

Last year was nothing if not a case in point; consider that the Twins
gave starts to ten different pitchers (including Matt Guerrier and
Mike Smith) in 2006. Consider that Lohse, Silva, Scott Baker, and Matt
Garza combined for 64 starts and a 21-34 record, while Santana and
Liriano combined for 50 starts and a 31-9 record. That’s 52 wins right
there, and Radke and Boof chipped in another 19 (as well as 15
losses). So those eight guys strung together a 71-58 record, which
means that the Twins went 25-8 in the games in which none of their
stable of starters received a decision. The bullpen had a combined Cy
Young-worthy record of 26-10.

Barring injury, the bullpen shouldn’t be a worry, and the rotation and
pitching staff in general sure looks to be in better shape–at least
in terms of mix-and-match options–this year.

And, yes, the whole piranha thing was a nice little gimmick, but let’s
remember the source (Chicago manager and nutball Ozzie Guillen). Punto
did a serviceable job of filling the massive hole left by the Batista
mistake, but he remains a seriously questionable major league third
baseman. He has zero power, has a history of being injury prone, and
doesn’t get on base nearly enough (.352 OBP last year) to make up for
his lack of pop. Tyner was also a decent surprise filling in,
particularly on defense, but his .312 BA in 62 games is essentially
meaningless given that he had seven extra base hits in 218 at bats.

I’ll disagree to some extent about the offense. I think they can get
better, and you have to remember that the offense was as putrid as the
pitching in the early going last year. I’m pretty confident Rondell
White can and will be a whole lot better than the player we saw in
2006, and I actually like the addition of Jeff Cirillo. The guy’s a
career .298 hitter and a perfect fit in the Twins’ clubhouse. I don’t
suppose you can expect Morneau to drive in 130 runs again, but it
wouldn’t surprise me to see him increase his home run numbers. And
unless Mauer’s leg proves to be a lingering concern (the decision to
keep a third catcher is a bit worrisome to me) it’s also reasonable to
expect him to increase his run production. If the kid can hit 25
homers and drive in a hundred runs I’m sure nobody’s gonna sweat the
inevitable dip in his batting average.

We pretty much know what to expect from Torii Hunter by now, and at
this point anything approaching a monster year from him would be
gravy. I have absolutely no idea whether Cuddyer can get any better,
or even whether he can come close to duplicating last year’s numbers.
He’s a good player, though, and he’s not going to hurt the team. I
think Luis Castillo can and should get on base a lot more than he did
last year, and it continues to baffle me how none of the top of the
order guys managed to score 100 runs last year. If Kubel’s healthy,
that’s a bonus the Twins didn’t have last year.

The bottom line, I guess, is that I think this team still has an
upside. They need to avoid last season’s disastrous start, but I think
they’ll win the division. Detroit won’t be as good, or as lucky, as
they were last year, and the loss of Kenny Rogers is going to hurt.
With the exception of Jim Thome, I despise everything about the White
Sox. And I don’t see that Cleveland has done nearly enough to bolster
its shitty bullpen. It remains a mystery how a team that had as many
magnificent performances as the Indians did in 2006 could scrape
together just 78 wins.

David Brauer

First, I can’t go for the trendy “surprise” pick of the Indians. The
Jamesians will tell you they should’ve won about a dozen more games
according to the “expected wins” formula, but that format overrates teams that score runs in bunches (Cleveland) but not consistently (Twins). As Brad noted, they failed to upgrade their awful bullpen this off-season, though their horrid defense is apparently up a titch. Anyone honest will tell you any Central team except the Royals can win it, but Detroit made the best move picking up Sheffield for their non-clutch offense, and they have by far the best full pitching staff in the division (even without Rogers; this is the benefit of great farm system arms and now playoff experience); to me, they’re the clear number one.

I’d put the Twins second because the Whities’ rotation is fading and they still play Podsednik and Uribe (Detroit, by the way, has no one in their starting batting order as hateable); let’s put Cleveland third and Chicago fourth. Not adventurous, I know, but that’s how I see it.

As for the Twins, I am not as sanguine about the rotation as Britt the
Contrarian. Here’s why: Rick Anderson is apparently good at developing and honing pitchers but I don’t see any track record of reclaiming them. Dennis Reyes is perhaps the biggest success in this regard, but that, as much as anything, was an example of disciplined situational use. I simply can’t see Ortiz–Mr. Big Inning–and Sidney-Wine-With-Dinner emerging, and Carlos Silva is, at this point, simply desperation. The law of averages says one will work out, but that leaves two in the dumpster. The kids might be fine (my theory on the Twins’ rotation decisions over the years is that every day in the minors delays major-league service accrual and thus free agency), but only Garza is a possible innings monster (and of course, neither are Ortiz, Ponson or Silva, at least the current edition of Silva). Which leads me to …

The bullpen. Here’s where I get contrarian. I think one of the
less-commented-upon things this year is the steady decline of Juan Rincon. It’s not Silva-like, but it’s there. His Walks-Hits-per-Innings-Pitched (WHIP) has climbed the last two seasons and 2006 was the second highest of his six-year career. Now unreliable as a set-up guy, you have to trust Neshek–who admittedly, was awesome last year, duplicating his minor-league stats–and Reyes, whose streak is officially one year in a row. I think the bullpen will get a lot more work this year, and our mid-innings guys have good stuff but are not low WHIP guys. If they falter, it might not matter if we get to the late innings guys.

On offense, I’ll admit I don’t completely trust the MVP–also contrarian, and quite possibly stupid–and find myself groaning over Bartlett, whose O really, deeply went into the toilet down the stretch. I’m not as much of a Punto-hater (Brad, he WAS injury prone, but speaking as a guy who started doing Pilates last year after little Nicky did, I can understand how the strength/flexibility thing can redeem an injured history), and his defense was frankly a joy to watch. (I don’t have the range stats, but he sure seemed clutch to me.) Punto is the poster child for smart, if not necessarily power-laden, at-bats, and his small-ballness was redeemed by the record power of Hunter and Cuddyer. I agree with Brad that Rondell
White will have a season much more like his second half than his first. (Don’t forget Jason Kubel lurking a year after a knee operation, when things always get better. May we never see Lew Ford again; great guy, horrid declining stats, who is only here because we patch together backup CFs and Denard Spann needs maximum at-bats for 2008.)

The best argument for Britt’s position is all the guys who just don’t
epitomize the offense. Leadoff guy? Any port in a storm, but having
Castillo bat first is a desperation move given his declining OBP. Punto worked at #2 last year but is not in the top half league-wise; Mauer is not a prototypic #3 (though we’re all waiting for that power – like Godot?). It all means MVP must be MVP, and 4-8 spots display at least ’06 power and OBP. I’d put the odds of that at about 45 percent.

Zellar

Hey, I confess complete ignorance when it comes to Pilates–no
freaking idea even what it is, but did I only imagine that Punto was
hobbled for much of spring training with exactly the sort of nagging
injury that had dogged him before 2006? The guy had exactly as many at
bats in Florida as Mike Redmond and Jeff Cirillo (and one fewer than
Matthew LeCroy), and he had eight hits in those 39 at bats.

As far as Rincon is concerned, granted, his strike outs *did* decline
(and his WHIP crept a bit) once he stopped accidentally ingesting
performance enhancing substances, but he was still a pretty damn
effective reliever last year, appearing in 76 games and compiling a
2.91 ERA.

Robson

All my chiding of David for not being irascible enough is apparently
working. Trendy or no, the Indians *did* upgrade their bullpen. I know Joe Borowski is 36 and has a career graph that looks like Zorro practice, but he did save 36 games for the Marlins last year. And yeah, 41-year old Roberto Hernandez makes Borowski look like a spring chicken, but a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP isn’t too shabby, even augmented by cavernous Shea Stadium. Add those geezers to Rafael Betancourt, who hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 in three seasons in Cleveland, and it is more than likely that they’ll do better than
last year’s pratfall, when the pen saved only 24 games in 47 attempts. (That’s Ron Davis territory.) As for the defense, getting Josh Barfield to play second instead of chubby Ronnie Belliard is a major upgrade and Andy Marte moves better than Aaron Boone did last year at third.

I’m not saying the bullpen or the D can be anything more than average, but the starting rotation is strong (Sabathia-Westbrook-Lee-Sowers) and the lineup is the most potent in the division by far. I’d trade Morneau for Grady Sizemore tomorrow, and Dakota native Travis Hafner is like a prairie Big Papi. Martinez can’t throw anybody out behind the plate but he sure can rake. No, I like Cleveland.

But this is supposed to be a Twins preview, innit? Actually, it can be whatever we want it to be. On the subject of Juan Rincon, I reflexively root against confirmed juicers, and just wish that Jesse Crain didn’t have that Everyday Eddie Guardado penchant for courting trouble so that Crain could do what the brass wanted last year and supplant Rincon as Nathan’s 8th inning valet. I get David’s affection for Punto because he (Brauer, not necesarily Punto) prioritizes diamond defense so highly. But Brad’s right: Remember all the jokes about how people need to stop him from running face first into dugouts and spiking himself in the shower? Unfortunately, Matt
Moses slugged .386 in Double A last year, so it is not like anybody is pushing Punto off the hot corner. And he is better than Tony Batista.

Brauer

First, Brad, ya caught me not paying attention to spring stats. I was only really looking at pitching lines. (Britt, I need more notice I’m blogging!!)

Second, Borowski. Thirty-six saves, yes, but seven blown, 3.75 ERA in a pitcher’s park (which Jacobs isn’t) AS A CLOSER and 4.5 walks per 9. I’ll grant Britt it’s an improvement, but not enough. In a strong division, Cleveland is still too weak in the fundamentals and Sabathia is showing Punto-like durability. (By the way, he’s also responsible for the second-dumbest fashion trend of recent years, the cocked cap. All those guys look drunk to me, and I can only hope some shard of sunlight gets through the bill void and forces an error. Manny’s pants-to-the-cleats is the worst trend, by the way–fully infecting youth baseball. Bring back stirrups!! Needless equipment, yes, misused, no.)

As for Rincon, I will grant that he had as many holds last year as ’05, but opponents’ BA skied the last three years from .181 to .224 to .270! To a certain extent, this is a function of being moved out of late-inning situations, and he could, I suppose, be a long-innings guy if we need more of them this year. But I see reason to believe last year looked better than it really was, and project further decline. The bullpen deserves its kudos–my point is there’s subtle reason to suspect regression, not improvement.

What can you guys tell me about this Slowey kid?

Zellar

I’ll wait until the end of this year to make up my mind about trading
Morneau for Sizemore. Both of those guys took mind-blowing leaps last
season, but if you haven’t already done so you should compare their
lefty-righty splits when you get a chance. I think teams are going to
exploit that a whole lot more than they did in ’06, particularly if
the Indians are winning games.

And I do have to agree with David about the cocked caps and the pants
down around the heels.

Robson

Slowey is your classic Twins pitcher in that control, location and mixing speeds are far more important to his arsenal than dominating “stuff” or a supreme “out pitch.” Sometimes that works–Radke is the prototype, Bonser seems to be the current best example–and sometimes the margin of error is too thin and the hurler turns into Scott Baker. But the guy has posted good numbers wherever he’s gone, including spring training this year, and had a 7/1 K/BB ratio in the minors last year, so I put him alongside the more “talented” Garza and Perkins as potential life rafts when or if Ponson, Ortiz, or Silva blow up.

Speaking of which, let’s end this particular exercise with a quick
prediction on pitching the first time through the rotation. I say Santana has a typical early-season Santana start in the opener; a few early runs on mistakes and a borderline quality start that keeps Minnesota in the game. Bonser will be better than that; I really like his readiness thus far this year. Instead of one big inning, Ortiz will have two semi-big innings compelling Gardy to trudge to the mound before the 5th is over. Silva will be hammered by the White Sox with the odds of Thome jacking one out being at least 50-50. Ponson? One way or another, it will be memorable. If he survives the first two innings, I say he gives them a quality start and they lift him after 6. But that will come after Santana spins a gem, so the pen
will be rested if he does explode.

However it goes, it will be nice to be covering a team with competent
management and a defining identity. People who know what they’re doing. If nothing else, you’ve got to give the Twins credit for that.

Zellar

Slowey is just a classic pitcher, period. What I’ve loved about this
recent batch of young pitchers–the second wave, if you will, after
guys like Durbin and Baker–is their composure and confidence.
Bonser, Garza, Perkins, and Slowey all seem like guys the Twins could
rush along the way the Tigers have rushed their own pitching prospects. They all appear to have the make-up to take their lumps and
keep taking the ball and figuring things out.

There may be nothing to it, but the Twins of recent vintage have
tended to play uptight in front of big crowds, and I expect Santana
will be pumped up and may take a few innings to settle in. I’ll wager
his pitch count will be an issue by the fifth or sixth, but if the
offense can get him some runs he’ll eke out a victory.

Bonser’s got stones. I expect he’ll keep the Twins in the game and
throw a quality start. Ortiz? Who knows? If he can keep the ball down
and get ground balls, he’ll be ok. That’s a big if, though, and he
could just as easily give up a batch of home runs and get chased from
the game early. Silva? See Ortiz, but make that an even bigger if. And
Ponson? Yes, Ponson will be interesting. He’s been talking like a guy
who’s figured shit out and is ready to play the role of the crafty
veteran, but there’s certainly nothing in his recent past to suggest
that anybody but a fool would trust anything he says. I don’t expect
that he’s going to look terribly dapper in a Twins uniform, at any
rate, but dapper’s never really been in his bag of tricks.

Brauer

Ahh, Baker. I put him and Lohse in the same category–preemie rooks who came up and showed eye-catching stuff (I distinctly remember Lohse’s curves from his early appearances) only to prove mirages. But when you consider the other decent arms the Twins have farmed, it makes Terry Ryan seem that much more impressive.

Also, Brad, great insight re: Sizemore and Morneau splits. I had no idea Grady was a putrid .214 against lefties. I’d say you managed to face me and Robson in one diablog!

Opening series:
Game 1: Santana v. Bedard. Great opener; great lefties. Love Bedard– not as much as Santana, but love his gas. He’s a slow starter, not as slow as Santana, but not that great on the road. Form would say high-scoring game, Santana goes six, O’s win.

Game 2: Bonser v. Cabrera. Another O’s gas-master, with less control (but off-season eye surgery–their Troy Williamson). Another slow starter, but somehow the Twins struggle against crazy-wild guys, especially early. Isn’t it scary how much we’re depending on Boof? Will we get the late-season Boof for six solid innings? Heart pick here–Twins win.

Game 3: Ortiz v. Wright. Ortiz has a better chance for Andersonian Healing than Sidney (who, sadly, won’t pitch against the O’s). Wright sucks. Ortiz goes five, Twins win.

Game 4: Ponson v. White Sox TBA. It’s weird, but the Sox haven’t announced the starter for the *third* game of the season, so it’s hard to say who’ll be the opposing pitcher here in both teams’ game four. Ponson sucks against the Sox for his career, though, so I give him three innings and put the Twins at 2-2 here.

BTW, Santana pitches in Game 5 (April 7) on national TV on Fox versus
Contreras. Fun!

According to the schedule, Silva won’t pitch until Wednesday, April 11
against the Yanks at home. Silva was respectable last year at home and at night. But he didn’t last past four innings against the Yanks last year.