Author: Britt Robson

I don’t think it is being overly melodramatic to say that tonight’s NBA draft is the most consequential one for the Wolves in over a decade. It is very deep, and Minnesota is staring at the distinct possibility of losing their superstar and two first-round picks over the next three years.

But let’s think happy thoughts. As Kevin McHale himself notes, the Wolves are very likely to choose a player who will provide immediate help next season. I’d like to hear your take on who you are crossing your fingers for and who you are dreading gets landed when Commissioner Stern makes the announcement this evening.

Based on various folks I’ve talked to and some limited viewing, here’s my thumbnail take. Oden and Durant are gone, of course, and unless Atlanta comes back into the picture with the #3 pick, so are Horford and Conley. There are a clump of players from #5-10 that include Yi, Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, Brandan Wright, Noah, and Spencer Hawes, with some folks like Al Thornton and Julian Wright also considered as a reach. Here’s my order:

Green–The most NBA-ready. A legit large 3 who Fred Hoiberg thinks is versatile and smart, coming out of a quality, defensive-oriented college program.

Brewer–A lock-down defender who probably doesn’t need the ball, but isn’t afraid to take the big shot if necessary. For those and other reasons, is a good fit with a Foye-McCants backcourt if the Wolves decide to go small and athletic.

Yi–I worry about rumors that he’ll be unhappy in a city without a significant Asian population, reportedly trying to discourage both Minnesota and Milwaukee from drafting him. But from the tape I’ve seen has size and skills that are rarely combined.

Noah–How ironic that he’d be the perfect complement to KG; someone who emphasizes defense and quickness in the paint and is a heady ballplayer who knows how to win.

Thornton–Rugged and NBA-ready.

The pick I dread is Hawes. It certainly isn’t his fault, but when was the last time that a large white guy taken in the first 10 picks fulfilled the hype? How many examples can you name that didn’t? (From Koncak and Kleine in the 80s to Darko in the aughts with Big Country
Reeves in between, I can name about a dozen without straining.)

And for all your really smart NCAA types, it wouldn’t hurt to hear who might be available and helpful at 41.

Thanks.

Most of the time I either ignore or mock Sid Hartman’s ravings–it’s better on the blood pressure. But this morning’s Strib column, entitled “Minneapolis City Council could step up, but it won’t,” hit a nerve and continues to aggravate. So I guess today is the day to call out this asshole.

The thrust of the piece is that the City of Minneapolis won’t step up and throw more money at the beleaguered new Twins stadium to bail out the inadequate planning done by Hennepin County Commissioner Mike Opat when financing the deal. Sid starts by recalling a meeting from 1995, when NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman was trying to move hockey’s Winnipeg Jets into the Target Center.

Wheelock Whitney, one of the great civic leaders here, made a speech pointing out that Metropolitan Stadium, Met Center, Target Center and the Metrodome had been built without taxing the public. The Metrodome was funded on a liquor tax.
And maybe this was the time for the city of Minneapolis to step up and provide some funding so the North Stars could be replaced.
But the city council did nothing. And the Jets went to Phoenix and became the Coyotes. And though the NHL eventually returned with the Wild, Xcel Energy Center and Target Center continue to compete for big shows and lose money.

Leaving aside Sid’s quaint notion that a liquor tax isn’t a tax on the public, he conveniently forgets that 1995 was also the year the Minneapolis City Council agreed to purchase Target Center from original Wolves owners Marv Wolfenson and Harvey Ratner for $85 million. Without that purchase, Glen Taylor wouldn’t have bought the team and patrons in another city would have been watching Kevin Garnett for the past dozen years.

Sid continues:

Well today, court hearings will be held on the condemnation situation of the land that will be home for the new Twins stadium. The price could come out a lot higher than the $13.5 million the space has been taxed on. The Pohlad family has agreed to pay an additional amount to help Hennepin Country [sic] when and if the condemnation comes out higher.
But Hennepin County Commissioner Mike Opat points out that a lot of the infrastructure connected with the ballpark will have to be eliminated if the condemnation figure comes out high.
Here would be a chance for Barbara Johnson, Lisa Goodman and other geniuses in the city council to say, “If that happens, we will contribute.”

Again, it is difficult to know if Sid has been rendered stupid by his blatant, all-consuming self-interest or his advancing years; either way, he doesn’t seem to understand the most fundamental aspects of the way the new Twins stadium is being funded. I’ll make it as simple as possible. Johnson, Goodman, and every other member of the Minneapolis City Council represent people who live in Minneapolis. People who live in Minneapolis also live in Hennepin County, and thus quite understandably make the overwhelming bulk of their purchases within Hennepin County. The largest single source of funding for the new Twins stadium–far more than the contribution made by the team’s billionaire owner, the wealthiest of all baseball owners, by the way–comes from an increase in the Hennepin County sales tax.

Memo to Sid: Johnson, Goodman and, more importantly, all the people they represent, are already contributing far more than their fair share of the stadium cost. Not only that, but after repeatedly voicing their opposition to funding new playgrounds for sports billionaires, and passing an citywide amendment to limit the City’s contribution to any such boondoggle to $10 million, they had this burden unilaterally placed upon them by Governor Pawlenty and the Minnesota State Legislature, who had to pass and sign a bill specifically overruling a provision in state law that stipulated voter approval of projects like the Twins stadium through a democratic referendum. It is not the fault of Johnson, Goodman or the people of Minneapolis that one of the landowners on the proposed Twins stadium site has shrewdly bargained for the best deal he can get, a factor that somehow wasn’t planned for when the Twins deal was being railroaded through the general public.

A minute ago I mentioned blatant self-interest on Sid’s part. Most people are acquainted with his biography: How he grew up poor selling the paper he now writes for on the streetcorners; and how he is now worth millions and millions of dollars. Now very very few people work as hard as Sid Hartman, even in his mid-80s, and he has invested the money he has earned from his journalistic labors wisely. But the plain fact is that sports in Minnesota have been very very good to Sid. One might even suggest that before he belittles the representatives of Minneapolis taxpayers for not forking over more public dollars to enhance the entertainment experience of endeavors he just happens to make his living covering, he might want to consider his own lucrative and longstanding conflicts of interest on the subject. Maybe he could even rough out a personal profit/loss statement with respect to how ballparks have eased his existence, and make appropriate amends. Put up or shut up, I think it’s called.

And because I don’t plan on ever writing about Sid again, one parting shot. This is a guy who in the decades I have observed and read him, turns the feisty journalistic axiom on its head: He comforts the comfortable and afflicts the afflicted. He is a slave to power, especially if the one wielding it has bullying tendencies, crawling furthest up the ass of people like Bob Knight and George Steinbrenner. And he is rude, mean and disparaging to those he considers beneath him in the social pecking order, especially but not exclusively with respect to media and communications assistants earning comparative peanuts trying to facilitate communication between petulant atheletes and team executives and journalists like me and Sid. Sid Hartman enables fascistic tendencies in human beings more than anyone I’ve ever met. Thank god he has devoted his boundless energy and passion to sports instead of politics.

Okay, end of rant. On an equally unpleasant subject, there are some who suggested over the weekend that Kevin Garnett’s agent, Andy Miller, had either not consulted with his client or was merely posturing for a better contract down the road when he claimed Garnett would definitely opt out of his contract if traded to the Boston Celtics. In any event, now that both sides have simultaneously acknowledged that KG is on the trading block and, with conditions, amenable to being traded, it is probably impossible to stuff the genie back in the bottle. If a deal is contingent on a renegotiation of Garnett’s contract after his opt-out year, that can’t happen with another team until I believe July 1, but certainly after the draft, meaning that teams with earlier picks such as Atlanta or Boston, may be covertly doing the Wolves’ bidding. At least that is the way one source explained it to me, and I hope I have portrayed it accurately.

David Brauer points out that a deal could be structured that gives the Wolves the package from the Celtics they supposedly wanted, and gets KG to Phoenix, where he wants to go. Here’s how he pitches it:
The Celtics would get: Amare Stoudamire, James Jones, Boris Diaw, Marcus Banks and Troy Hudson. The Wolves would get Al Jefferson, the #5 overall draft pick, Wally Szczerbiak, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff’s expiring contract. Phoenix would get Kevin Garnett paired with Steve Nash and Shawn Marion, and, here’s the rub, a huge hit on their salary cap, involving luxury tax dollars that Suns ownership says it doesn’t want to pay.

The point is, the KG speculation game is almost certainly not going to end with Garnett staying in Minnesota; not after this much blood has been put in the water by both sides. As might be expected, the best clearinghouse for KG-related information around the net is at I Heart KG, which you can get to by hitting the link at the side of the page.

Finally, with the draft now just three days away, my tolerance for speculation is higher, to the point where I will throw up an open thread on Thursday morning for any and all who want to comment–the usual cavaet applies, however: no one-line ejaculations, or other stupidity. Keep it smart and original. Relying simply on what I have been told or inferred from sources I respect, some within the team, I think Minnesota will draft either Corey Brewer or Jeff Green at #7. I think Brewer will be gone by then (maybe to a team picking on the Wolves’ behalf). I’m lousy at this sort of thing, but I’m guessing Green is the guy who gets announced on Thursday night.

Patrick Reusse may not be the greatest twirler of words in town, but the guy has usually possessed good, pithy instincts and an impeccable sense of timing. Today’s column, in which Reusse posits that, A) Cornerstone players Kevin Garnett and Torii Hunter should be traded from the Wolves and Twins, respectively; and B) That it ain’t gonna happen; is vintage Reusse and neatly lays out a parallel circumstance that will have a huge impact on my two favorite hometown teams.

The short answer from my end is that Reusse is right that both Garnett and Hunter should be dealt, and wrong that at least one of them won’t be in a different uniform before October.

Longtime readers know that I am a huge KG booster who has only recently begun to countenance, let alone endorse, losing the chance to see Garnett deliver the goods for the Wolves night after night. Not that I had many illusions: Nearly 18 months ago I wrote a cover piece for City Pages about how Garnett would never brandish a championship ring with the Wolves logo on it. But the series of events over the past 12 months have convinced me that, even lowering expectations, it is highly unlikely that the Wolves will move beyond the first round of the playoffs during the steadily declining window of KG’s prime. Put simply, the moment has passed for this superstar on this team, and barring a trade what almost certainly remains are recriminations, pity, apathy, and anger.

What has happened in the last year? For the second season in a row, Garnett had the indignity of folding up shop early while claiming some sort of “injury” so that the team would be able to retain its first-round draft pick. Philadelphia sacrificed Allen Iverson for dimes if not pennies on the dollar and found itself playing better under freed-up star-to-be Andre Iguodala. San Antonio and to a lesser extent Phoenix and Utah demonstrated the disparity in talent, depth and cohesion between the Western Conference elite and the Wolves. Conference mediocrities who could regarded as Minnesota’s peers–Golden State, Portland, Seattle–were given a huge boost by playoff-matchup success or ping-pong ball luck in the draft. And for the first time in his career, KG took a slight step backward, losing a titch to age for which wisdom and experience couldn’t compensate, especially on defense. Even if McHale has a superb off-season with the draft and MLE and the team gels better on the court and in the locker room–none of which, obviously, are sure things–the Wolves, at best, seem to be staring at a daunting first-round playoff foe.

Is there a chance that this squad can do everything right and get to the second round and establish momentum for 2008-09? Yup. Is there a chance they can leverage that momentum into budding stardom for Foye/McCants/this year’s draft pick while KG plays Shaq to Wade in that equation? Yes, there is. Are those odds good enough to risk the horrible recriminations-pity-apathy-anger combo platter that gets served on this franchise if it doesn’t happen? That’s the question everyone has to ask themselves. My answer is no.

Torii is an easier call on the game of Deal or No Deal, but still more difficult than I would have imagined even three months ago. When Hunter announced he was finally feeling healthy and ready to have a monster year during spring training, I chalked it up as another chapter in the effective PR he has been staging this past 2 or 3 seasons to receive a legit contract extension and remain a Twin (remember him saying how much he wanted to play on the natural grass of an outdoor stadium in Minnesota?). But Hunter has indeed been the most surprising positive of the 2007 Twins season thus far. While I share the mystification expressed by esteemed colleague Brad Zellar as to why anyone would throw such a guess-oriented and impatient hitter like Hunter anything remotely resembling a strike unless they were way behind in the count, BZ and I have to cop to the fact that just three weeks before the All Star break Hunter has an OPS of .895 and 56 ribbies in 68 games–and hasn’t lost as much in center field as KG has being superman defending the pick-and-roll.

It’s ironic, really: If Glen Taylor owned the Twins, there’s a chance Hunter would get his $60 million re-up even as it inflated the forthcoming deals for the likes of Justin Morneau and Johan Santana (a sage point emphasized by Reusse as to why the Twins can’t re-sign Hunter). And if Carl Pohlad owned the Wolves, the incredibly depressing endgame that likely awaits KG and the Wolves would almost certainly be short-circuited (if Pohlad was always the owner of the Wolves, KG would have had a 3-year stay in Minnesota, but that’s another story).

Just because it is so painful–and for fans of the Wolves and Twins, painful is not a hyperbolic word, but a legitimate description of the ache–shouldn’t obscure the reality that the reasons for trading Garnett and Hunter are greater than the reasons for keeping them. I think that Kevin McHale and to a lesser extent Glen Taylor understand this, know that there is another notch or two to go to hit rock bottom and that they are likely to experience it with or without KG. Then the question becomes, what is the quickest way to emerge from it? For Terry Ryan and the Pohlad crew, the calculation is more clearcut: If the Twins manage to keep contending, Hunter will stay, because loyalty and class are the identity of this franchise. But so is intelligence, and anyone with half a brain knows that the Twins (as they are currently constituted anyway) can’t afford Hunter beyond this season if they are to have any hope of retaining Morneau and Santana beyond their current contracts. So then the question becomes, what are the parameters of “contending”? On that front, last year’s stirring comeback certainly augurs for patience and hope, and that’s a shame, because the Twins don’t have the horses to overtake both Cleveland and Detroit and almost certainly won’t get past the wild card round in the postseason. But if something could secured for Hunter relatively soon, when his 2007 value as a rent-a-player remains very high to a contender, then I think the Twins’ ace scouts could find some diamonds as Hunter compensation to go with next year’s promise, when Santana will still be under contract, all the kids–Slowey, Garza, Bonser, Baker–will be a year older, and Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau will be another step closer to a baseball player’s chronological prime.

Two bittersweet farewells. Both should happen.

PS–In the midst of writing this entry, I happened to get an email from Jim Souhan asking me to be on KSTP radio tonight to talk about Garnett and the upcoming draft. At this point it appears that may occur early in the 7 o’clock hour.

If the Cavs and Spurs had played 20 times this month, I am now convinced San Antonio would have won 18-19 times. For Denver it would be 15-16; ditto Utah; for Phoenix, 13-14; and ditto Dallas, the tough matchup they avoided with the Golden State upset. Which is to say that the Spurs’ fourth championship was the opposite of a fluke. Having seen all but one of their 20 games in the post-season, I think they were the most complete and inevitable champion since the second Jordan Bulls outfit of the mid-90s.

I was singing a slightly different tune ten days ago, of course, when I made the case that the Cavs could play the Spurs tough. Four games later, the convention wisdom–that the Spurs had too much talent, experience, will power, and everything else for the Cavs–was obviously wiser. Without going back and rereading my wayward post, I think I based my premise on the Cavs being competitive on at least two of three factors emerging. But in fact none of them developed. Read ’em while I weep.

The Cavs’ perimeter defense would deter Parker and Ginobili
Parker’s Finals MVP trophy gives you a clue how this one turned out. Yes, Larry Hughes was waylaid by plantar fasciitis, but Hughes would have had to be at the very top of his game to derail Parker’s glory in this series. From the onset, the soon-to-be Mr. Longoria blew past two or three Cavs at a time en route to his trademark banker while taking a header into the photographers. By Games Three and Four, he had settled into such a comfort zone that not only the teardrop but the heretofore unreliable trey had become money in the bank. And when Parker wasn’t bedeviling the Cavs, Ginobili was, as always, waiting for the step-up moment that would be most deflating to his opponents’ resolve. The competitive killer instinct of Parker and Ginobili is more ferocious than any guard tandem since Dumars and Zeke back in the day.

LeBron would hit his midrange jumpers
You knew the Spurs wouldn’t give LeBron a chance to penetrate; not without making him prove he could nail that 15-footer. It was unreasonable to expect King James to continue the long-range accuracy he’d demonstrated against the Pistons, and, at 5-20 FG from beyond the arc, he didn’t. But what really doomed the Cavs was LeBron shooting just 40 percent (28-70 FG) from two-point range. What that stat says is that San Antonio was able to deny the superstar both layups and free throws. I’ve ripped ABC commentator Mark Jackson in the past, but he was dead-on in his repeated calls for the Cavs to post-up LeBron more often. Yes, Bruce Bowen came up huge, and the Spurs have the depth and commitment to assure that LeBron never discovered the comfort zone Parker was able to create for himself. But how does a player like LeBron operating under the new hand-checking rules only get 29 free throws in 170 minutes during this series? (By comparison, Ginobili shot 30 FTA in 117 minutes.) As someone who has praised Cavs’ coach Mike Brown for his defensive schemes, I’ve got pile on with the critics of his offensive sets. Yes, guys like Varegao, Pavlovic and Gooden are probably destined to play stupidly in terms of shot selection and overall ball movement. But put your athletic superfreak down in the paint and see what happens a little more often–especially when it was obviously the best thing Cleveland had going on offense.

Daniel Gibson would maintain his swagger
This was a gut call that turned out to be inaccurate. I figured Gibson had absolutely nothing to lose and thus would continue to play out of his mind. Instead, the law of averages caught up with him and he reverted to his regular season mortality, shooting 44 percent from field overall and just 32 percent from three-point territory. Thus, the long-ball threat that killed the Pistons and freed up James was out of the equation.

A couple more minor points before we close the books on this slaughter. Brown made a big mistake not giving Eric Snow more burn when it was apparent Hughes couldn’t go. No way a no-hope like Damon Jones deserves 65 minuts to Snow’s 41. Sure, Jones is a three-point threat that could open up the floor for LeBron is ways Snow couldn’t. But Jones can do anything but shoot, whereas Snow can defend and dish (despite his scant minutes, his 9 assists were third-best on the team this series). Watching Damon Jones trying to guard Parker and company was this mismatch in microcosm.

Finally, you are going to hear all about how this experience will enormously abet LeBron and make the Cavs the presumptive favorites to return for next year’s finals. It is a viable theory, but I’d actually argue that it is the Spurs who benefited most from their experience this season. Consider how much two of their starting five, Oberto and Parker, grew in confidence and role-expansion over these past 20 games. Consider that Duncan looks healthy and is surrounded with players who will enable him to stay home in the paint at both ends of the floor, extending his career. Consider that Ginobili’s deal with the devil–enabling him to hit every big shot and put himself in the perfect position to generate big rebounds, steals, etc., has obviously been extended. Consider that Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili are all signed through 2009-10, and that of the top 10 in their rotation, only Oberto, Finley and Vaughn are eligible for free agency this off-season. A year from now, we could very well be hearing about “one for the thumb” as it relates to championship rings for Tim Duncan.

It’s not quite moving a deck chair on the Titanic, but the straight (and still unconfirmed) trade of Mike James to Houston for Juwan Howard seems more of an addition-by-subtraction and a bid to install locker room leadership than a significant upgrade in on-court talent.

First, the upside. Howard is a quality individual, a hard worker who has been given various community awards and citations for his charitable contributions and strength of character. At 6-9, he is a front court player who has averaged more than 16 points and 7 rebounds over the course of his 13-year career. In terms of chemistry, he is a stabilizer, not a disrupter, and has long been friends with Kevin Garnett.

His contract is slightly more expensive than James’s, but extends out to a player option (that he will almost certainly exercise) in 2008-09, whereas James has his own lucrative player option in 2009-10, so the Wolves save a year of expensive penance for their unfortunate signing. Howard also enables the Wolves to rid themselves of James the player, whose horrendous defense and emotional inability to make the transition from role player to reliable starter was among the more significant of myriad disappointments in the 2006-07 season. Add to that persistent rumors that James was a corrosive component of this team, especially in his willingness to talk the talk about team play but not walk the walk, and it’s easy to understand why Minnesota pulled the trigger on this deal.

The downside is that Howard will be 35 in February and cannot reasonably be expected to hold down the center position, even in this era of no hand-check small ball. He is a better rebounder than Mark Blount (who isn’t among big men?), shares the ball better in the half court game, and is a better defender. But he is *not* a shot-blocker (his career average is 0.3 per game) and can’t provide the staunch, trunk-oriented ability to hold his ground so necessary in defending bigs in the paint. Instead, he is a decent mid-range jump-shooter (albeit not as good as either KG or Blount) and passable defender of opposing power forwards who is probably incapable at this point in his career of playing the sort of uptempo style that is coming into vogue in the NBA, one the Wolves might be able to play with the right draft pick and deploying KG as the “center.”

Any more tea-leaf reading on the future will of course have to wait for this month’s draft and other deals that might occur between now and the beginning of training camp this fall. At first blush, it appears that Minnesota is either preparing to draft a point guard or indeed committed to Randy Foye as its point guard. I’m guessing the latter, because Juwan Howard is decidedly not the banger required to take the onus off Kevin Garnett in the paint wars.

Bottom line, I think this trade was made for chemistry reasons, and to begin to correct the backcourt imbalance on the roster that plagued the team last season. Juwan Howard is not the piece that cements a playoff contender. He is a reliable player on and off the court who will provide an honest night’s effort 82 games per season. The same could not be said of Mike James. The only lingering question, one we obviously can’t answer, is whether or not the Wolves could have received better compensation for James than an aging, smallish, slightly redundant power forward.

On the flight back to Cleveland after his 48-point, double-overtime performance in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, LeBron James was so literally drained of energy that he required intravenous fluids. Well, somebody better have that drip bag ready two or three times minimum for the NBA Finals that kick off Thursday night in San Antonio. Because the Spurs will make LeBron work for everything he gets….but will also force the King James to be the one who beats them on offense.

Against Phoenix, Gregg Popovich and his crew decided to guard the three-point shooters even if it meant the Suns had room to operate off the dribble after they spread the floor. Against Utah, Pops and company seemed to allow Mehmet Okur (and, initially, Deron Williams) plenty of open looks out at the three-point line while robbing the Jazz of easy shots in the paint. Both turned out to be the right decision. How will they play the Cavs? The decision could be significant, because this series, folks, could be much more competitive than the San Antonio blowout most people expect.

I say this as someone who has been blown away by how well the Spurs have performed in the first three rounds. Duncan’s decision-making has generally been spot-on; Ginobili has re-resurrected the notion that he elevates his game in crucial crunchtime moments more dramatically than anyone in the league; and Parker has improved his defense and curbed his mental lapses to the point where, like Duncan, he’s never played better than in the past 6 weeks. San Antonio won eight more games than Cleveland while playing in a far tougher conference, and then steamrolled through a vastly more daunting gauntlet of opponents to reach these finals. In fact, a decent argument could be made that any of the Spurs’ last three playoff foes would be favored over Cleveland.

But for a number of reasons the Cavs are a dangerous, dangerous team right now. First of all, their coach and their perimeter defense are both ridiculously underrated. Even with the NBA’s most galvanizing superstar (as of Game Five, it is no longer Kobe), “winning ugly” has generally been Cleveland’s m.o. They throw a starting lineup out of the floor that features a wiry guard tandem of 6-5 Larry Hughes and 6-7 Sasha Pavolvice, with 6-8 LeBron the swingman. Rarely have all three perimeter defenders on a team been simultaneously so long and tall, so sinewy, and so quick. It is hard for opponents to set up because they have precious little space in their comfort zone, precious little peripheral vision, and dramatically reduced passing angles. Against the Cavs, Washington shot 41.3% from the field; New Jersey was 42.8% and Detroit was 41.9%. Individually, Vince Carter was 35%, Jason Kidd 42%, Rip Hamilton 43% and Chauncey Billups 42%. One of the great matchups of this series is how effectively Cleveland can enforce its defensive will on Parker and Ginobili, two of the absolute masters at creating points when starting from the perimeter in the half-court offense.

This is Mike Brown’s doing. The Cavs’ coach is a Popovich disciple, and it is worth remembering that Pops, too, was grossly underrated despite surprising success early in his coaching tenure. Coaching defense is about making it an unrelenting priority, and Brown is demonstrating that kind of contagious commitment–if he’s not in the class of a Popovich or a Larry Brown yet, the arc of his brief career shows he’s on track for it. The Spurs have played some mighty fine ballclubs in the postseason thus far, but they haven’t encountered a team that can disrupt an offense at the point of attack like Cleveland can. This is the most underrated aspect of Lebron’s game, by the way. Not only is he faithful to Brown’s rigorous defensive schemes and rotations, but he is so strong and inexorable that he literally wears people out. Tayshaun Prince missed 50 of the 66 shots he attempted in the Eastern finals because he was gassed from guarding LeBron, and then had to get past LeBron (and Hughes and Pavlovic) to get his shot off. As the series wore on and Prince wore out, the Cavs frequently sloughed off him to concentrate on Hamilton and Billups and he still couldn’t convert (think of how many open looks Prince got compared to Rip and Billups). Now Bruce Bowen isn’t as vital to the Spurs offense as Prince was to the Pistons, but he was able to slide in the dagger of some crunchtime baselines treys in two or three of the wins over Utah. He won’t have the legs left to make those shots against the Cavs.

But the question remains: Do the Spurs gang up on LeBron or seal off his options and let him go for his? I say the latter. After the Cavs had beaten the Pistons, the increasingly enlightening Steve Kerr noted that LeBron is exactly the kind of guy that Bowen has trouble containing–large and powerful. Like Raja Bell, Bowen has a bully mentality, one that wants to intimidate. That’s out of the question against LeBron, who is strong enough to make Bowen feel puny, and quick enough to make Bowen feel old. If Bowen tries to impede LeBron’s pivot, and get up under him like he does to so many opposing point guards, LeBron will have a field day blowing past him *and* drawing the foul. Plus, if LeBron blows past Bowen, who rotates over to defend the paint, putting himself at risk of fouling? Yup, Tim Duncan. And if Duncan is forced into early foul trouble, everything changes for San Antonio. Remember, the only game Utah won was when Duncan was saddled with early whistles. That and TD’s suspect free throw shooting comprise the Spurs’ very short list of glaring vulnerabilities.

It is Popovich’s job to keep his polestar on the court without having the rest of his team get posterized by LeBron’s penetration. I think the way he handles it is to make LeBron beat San Antonio with his jumper. Have Bowen play off him enough to scurry into position to draw the charge. Robert Horry is extremely adept at this, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Horry on LeBron some, despite the obvious difference is quickness. Bottom line, if LeBron is making his treys and midrange jumpers, this could be a whale of a series.

Popovich has other options, of course. He could throw multiple traps and double-teams at LeBron, and he may even start off that way, checking to see how much of a flash in the pan Daniel Gibson turns out to be. I think that’s playing with fire. And gasoline. If Cleveland as a team has absolutely nothing to lose–and they don’t, a prime reason why they are dangerous–Gibson is the guy playing with the lottery money he just inherited from an unknown uncle: The guy could go 0-30 in this round and still get free beers in any Cleveland tavern 30 years from now. Has there been a player in the past 20 NBA Finals more justified in feeling he is blessed by fate and destined to be the hero than Daniel Gibson? Has there been a player whose body language better suggests that he absolutely the right person to assume this role? Forget about his perfect 5-5 FG from beyond the arc in Game Six for a moment; Gibson got to the free throw line 33 times in 94 minutes during the last three Cavs’ wins over Detroit, and he made 30 of them. If I’m Popovich, one of my first orders of business is to make Gibson feel vinceable again, as soon as possible, even if it means throwing one less body at LeBron. Meanwhile, at the other end, Parker has to burn Gibson at every opportunity, forcing Brown to yank him.

Flip Saunders will tell you that when it comes to defending LeBron, you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Saunders got ripped for letting James waltz around for 48 in Game Five. So in Game Six he throws the kitchen sink at King James and LeBron simply dishes off to Gibson, who nails treys with an unfettered rhythm like he gets in after-practice drills when the assistant coaches are feeding him a diet of dishes. Pops is a better defensive coach than Flip and, not coincidentally, has better defenders at his disposal. Another option is to put Duncan on Z Ilgauskas and let Oberto and Elson semi-guard Drew Gooden while rotating over on LeBron. In any case, to snuff out Cleveland’s designs on an upset, Pops needs to keep Duncan out of foul trouble and prevent Gibson from continuing to think he’s following God’s will. I think that means playing off LeBron, giving him the midrange and positioning for the charge when LeBron penetrates. That a recipe that will fatten LeBron’s scoring average and have him reaching for the IV after the games.

So, despite all this, why is San Antonio still more likely to be the ones holding hardware over their heads in a week or so? Because the soft underbelly of the Cavs is their interior defense and the Spurs has the savvy to recognize it and the talent to exploit it. If the likes of Mikki Moore and Chris Webber can give Z and Gooden and Varajao fits, imagine how Duncan and Oberto can carve them up. Duncan will be black and blue before this is finished, and as always, how the refs call the game will be enormously important, especially on LeBron’s penetration (block or charge?) and the response to Duncan’s low post choreography (hack or no call?). I was shocked at how slowly Ilgauskas reacted in the low block versus Detroit, and if it continues, Cleveland is going to have to double down with Pavlovic and James, freeing up the perimeter for Ginobili, Parker and the three-point shooters.

Who is the more reliable scorer, Duncan or LeBron? If the comparison is Duncan from 4 feet versus LeBron from 15 feet, and Duncan isn’t clanking from the line, then TD is more reliable and the Cavs are toast. But if the Cavs can figure out a way to defend Duncan without compromising that airtight perimeter D, then the Cavs have some hope. And if LeBron forces Pops to think he’s damned every which way–Duncan in foul trouble or Gibson going off or LeBron getting 40–then the Cavs can spring a major upset. I’ll repeat what I’ve said about the past two Spurs opponents: If everything breaks right on their A game, this will be a long, contentious, thrilling series that could go either way. More likely, the Spurs will make Cleveland play their A-minus game, and San Antonio wins it in five, or, more likely, six.

On April Fools Day, I convened two of the smartest diamond watchers I know, The Rake’s own Brad Zellar (of Warning Track Power) and veteran Twin Cities journalist David Brauer for a Twins diablog. You can go back and find it in the archives or take my word that it was absolutely the most prescient slab of baseball wisdom delivered this calendar year (you should probably check). Anyway, hyperbole aside, the conversation did go well enough that I am making good on my threat to repeat it. What follows is a three-round hash, written between the afternoons of Monday May 28 and Tuesday May 29.

Britt Robson

What do Tony Batista, Juan Castro, Sidney Ponson, and Ramon Ortiz have in common? As any Twins fan can tell you, they all fall somewhere between “very suspect” and “washed-up” vets upon whom the Twins have unwisely gambled their past two springs. What’s especially concerning about this is that even casual fans foresaw the collapse of this quartet–it was a too-obvious reach on the part of GM Terry Ryan. (Full disclosure: I was so infatuated with Ryan’s acumen for judging talent that I was one of the precious few either defending his choices or suspending judgment on that hapless quartet the past two preseasons.)

I suppose the counter-argument is “no harm, no foul,” in that Ryan’s Twins won the division last year and appear to be rounding into shape in time to contend this season. But that’s twice the club has pissed away two months before acknowledging what most everyone could have predicted.

Is this simply to save money? The longer the Sloweys and Garzas of the world stay on the farm, the longer they wait for arbitration and free agency. Would Ryan, Pohlad and company be so cynical as to stagger their tenures so that if, say, Santana, prices himself out of the market they will have other aces-in-waiting for two or three years rather than one or two? And, if the cheap vets don’t pan out early and they stock from the farm system, it quells talk of going out and getting a bat or an arm for the pennant race in midseason. To choose two examples: Is Craig Wilson really so washed up that this ballclub shouldn’t take a chance on him? Seems to me he’s an ideal American League DH. I guess the fact that no one else has bitten on his services indicates his ability fell off the table–he had 29 homers in ’04 and is only 30. Second, with the Reds starters getting regally hammered–the Pirates, of all teams, put away all three games in the first inning over the weekend–and with ex-Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky now running the Reds, couldn’t we dangle Scott Baker or Carlos Silva for Edwin Encarnacion, who they actually sent to the minors last month, or Ryan Freel? EE is apparently a lousy fielder, but there’s no reason he could fill some kind of 3B/DH platoon with Jeff Cirillo and let Nick Punto become the super utility man he was born to be. Freel is in an even better fit, a guy who can play anywhere but most often at 3B and CF, a pair of holes for this ballclub if they don’t sign Torii Hunter at the end of this season. (Because if you’re a minor league stat reader, you know Denard Spann is a loooong way from ready.)

A few other passing comments before I pass the baton to you two. Is Torii Hunter playing himself into a hometown discounted $40-45 million deal over the next three years? More 20/20 hindsight, but shouldn’t the Twins have locked up the MVP before the season started and he started proving that he’s only getting started on a string of quality seasons? Should the Twins think about moving Mauer to third and finding someone to platoon with Redmond, a pretty damn good catcher in his own right. Mauer’s height (big catchers don’t last), injury history and upside at the plate all make such a move at least worth considering. And is it time to call Jason Kubel a bust? (I think he is.)

Don’t let these subjects limit you. If you’ve got something else on your mind, let it fly….

David Brauer

As the originator of the “wait to call up and delay arbitration year argument,” I’m willing to cut the Twins a bit of slack…at least on Garza. Sounds like we have a bit of a “ten-cent head” problem (see: Kubel, Jason) with Matt–if he is not listening to Rochester about mixing pitches, he deserves the delay. (As Crash Davis once said, “Don’t think, meat.”)

Funny you should mention Krivsky: the Reds aren’t exactly thriving, are they? (As of this writing, they’re 19-33 and last in the Worst Division in Baseball. Also by the way, Zach Ward, the pitcher the Twins got for Lohse, is pitching at Ft. Myers and his record is identical to Lohse’s–2-6–though Ward has a 2.72 ERA.) One of the few correct predictions I made earlier this year was that of Silva, Ortiz and Ponson, one would work out–not a dangerous prediction, mind you, but even with Silva’s 4.22 ERA, I’ll notch it in pencil. I think with such uncertain starters, we’d be foolish to give up on Silva or Baker at this point, and Krivsky is unlikely to take our sloppy seconds; last year, he was in a pennant race; this year, not so much. If you figure on Garza, Slowey and Baker, two will work out, you still need Silva to contend, I think–the division is just that tough, and the sluggers Britt mentions are too one-dimensional or non-slugger enough for me to wait. (By the way, Freel was knocked unconscious today–not hurt seriously, but we’ll need concussion specialists to peer at those retinas.)

Sadly for me, Souhan stole my proposed line-up from here on out: Castillo, Mauer in the two hole, Cuddy, MVP, Hunter. L-R-L-R 2-through-5, and concentrate the pain (both for the other team at the top of the order and us at the bottom). It sucks that Kubel has been so useless at the plate–though his glove is coming on–-but I’ve always believed in getting the best hitters the most at-bats, and DH, Kubel (or perhaps Tyner), Punto, Bartlett should be at the bottom. (Punto and Bartlett can flip.)

Had you asked back in March, I would’ve said “Adios, Torii” with a heavy heart. With a glint of steel in my eye, I still feel that way now. He’s clearly a top-tier player, and will command much more than a three-year deal. (Watching Damon, you don’t think the Yanks will offer five?) I happen to feel the team’s top priorities are Santana and Morneau, and it will take every bit of coin to re-up them. I believe 32-year-old Torii will be increasingly injury-prone, exactly the sort of player the BoSox or Yanks can take a chance on, but we can’t. Santana could be the A-Rod of pitchers (financially, I mean), though we should discuss that ERA–I’m not sure what’s up. Lots of FA outfielders next year, though it’s silly to resist market price for the best guy and have to go bidding for his inferior. Would Santana re-sign if the ERA-reducing Hunter is gone?

I of course hope the Twins either contend to the end or fall out hard so as to trade Torii for something. I’m fine if this is a developmental year…if you look at the starting fielders, sans Hunter and Castillo, this is still a young club, and the starters will be equally green (even Johan is only 28).

While I was more or less right about Rincon’s submergence (opponents’ OPS is a hefty .737 this year, the third consecutive rise, up from .528 in ’04 and .575 in ’05, aka the Juice Years) I do have to doff my size-7 to Mr. Robson with his insistence that Cleveland was the team to beat. I never thought I’d see an AL Saves leader (Borowski) with an 6.75 ERA, but I’m obviously seeing the trees, not the forest. Oh, and even though Grady Sizemore looked like a turd for a few weeks back, his OPS stands at .858 (off last year’s pace by a little) and he’s hitting lefties and righties equally well. I wouldn’t trade him for the MVP, though (.954 OPS and rising).

Brad Zellar

The Twins already have a fair amount of money invested in Ortiz and
Silva–something like $7.5 million dollars–so I don’t quite
understand the whole economics angle as it applies to Garza et al. It
just seems like a ridiculous gamble at this point. If the guy turns
out to be good enough to justify a bank-breaking arbitration figure
down the line, well, shit, good for the Twins.

At this point–precisely *because* of guys like Batista, Ponson, and
Ortiz–I’m against the team going out and trying to snag some
reclamation project from another club. The Twins are good at finding
and developing talent, but, with the exception of the occasional blip
in the bullpen, they haven’t had a particularly good track record with
nurturing comebacks or resurrecting careers. Somewhere down the line
–maybe even later this year, if they fall way out of contention–
it’s possible they’ll have to trade away some of those young arms for
some offensive prospects, but I don’t think that time is now.

Right now, and as we go forward, I think they have to worry about
shoring up that bullpen and finding some serviceable warm bodies to
eat up innings, and the obvious solution (given Ortiz’s salary and
early success) is exactly what they’re apparently going to do: bring
up Slowey and toss Ortiz to the bullpen to see if he can get some work
in. If Silva slips again, I say push him to the pen as well and bring
up Garza. The scuttlebutt about Garza quibbling about pitch selection
in Rochester is much ado about nothing, I imagine. He was more than
solid in his last outing, and if he’s struggling with pitch selection
it seem to make more sense to have him up here working with the
coaching staff and watching guys like Santana pitch.

Like David I was agnostic about the Twins picking up Hunter’s option
this year. I’m not going to gripe if he plays so well the team can no
longer afford him. Somebody almost certainly is going to throw
ridiculous dollars in his direction, and I don’t know if the Twins can
or should try to play at those prices, whether Denard Spann is ready
or not. Not that I have any other ideas, of course, but I’d love to
see Terry Ryan be more active in making creative trades, and I still
very much trust his judgment when it comes to young, unproven players.
The problem is that he falls in love with his own so much that he can
never seem to part with them.

I still think Cleveland’s bullpen is going to bring the Indians a good
deal of grief, although I’m willing to chalk that up to wishful
thinking. And I still wouldn’t trade Morneau for Sizemore, although
with the Hunter situation it would be mighty, mighty tempting.

Also, I have to stress this: with all the injuries I really do believe
the big concern right now is the bullpen, which has been getting worn
out. The bottom line on Rincon is that he’s more or less been getting
the job done, but it’s unlikely that he can just swap places with
Neshek or Guerrier and gobble up middle innings. He may well be the
next guy to go down with a bum arm; the early warning signs are all
there.

And I don’t agree that it’s time to give up on Kubel. The guy has come
a long ways from that horrific injury, and at this point he sort of
reminds me of where Cuddyer was at a few years ago. If the Twins are
really interested in finding out whether or not he’s the real deal
they need to throw him out there every day.

Oh, and this: I’ve been obsessing about the batting order all season,
and went into it yesterday on my blog. It seems both a shame and a sort of unfortunate recognition of the guy’s talents to suggest that Mauer should be batting second. He may be a three hitter somewhere down the line, but he’s not at the moment. And I also say screw the conventional wisdom (lefty-righty) and stack Mauer and Morneau back-to-back, and follow them with Cuddyer and Hunter. I just think it’s huge to get Morneau to the plate every day in the first inning, especially if Castillo and Mauer are going to be on the basepaths roughly 40% of the time.

Britt Robson

As always with you guys, a feast of food for thought and a chance for some arguments with smart people.

This actually is a continuation of our preseason roundtable, where, unlike you two, I was more concerned about the offense than the pitching. Well, the Twins are currently 4th in the AL in ERA and tied for 7th in runs scored. Help is on the way in both places–Mauer is coming back and there’s Garza and Slowey in the minors–but even after the injurious trifecta of Crain, Reyes, and Perkins, and acknowledging the fact that the Twins’ ERA is currently its highest since 2003, I still see this squad falling short because of bats, not arms. Ever since the perpetually lamentable Dick Such was finally given his walking papers, the Twins have done a great job stitching together middle relief. Yeah, I’ll admit I hadn’t heard of any of
the three guys they brought up to replace the injured wings, but after going to the extra-inning loss to the Blue Jays over the weekend, I’d have to say that both Cali and Miller looked fine (DePaulo isn’t ready, walking the only two batters he faced after yielding six to Texas in one inning previously), and they’ve got another lefty, Ricky Barrett, putting up good numbers for
Rochester in Triple-A. Bottom line, Guerrier and Neshek had both shown enough for promotion before the injuries. These other guys, plus Ortiz in middle relief, can fill in until Reyes and Perkins return.

That’s a hell of a lot easier to patch than figuring out how the Twins get better on offense. Rondell White? Kubel? Are you confident that Mauer stays healthy the rest of the year when he comes back on Friday? (And I repeat, should he remain behind the plate?) Ryan needs to be a little more proactive in bolstering his offense. What’s
the harm in giving Craig Wilson a look? Is that really a bigger gamble than the ones he took on Ponson or Batista? And if not Wilson, one would think a right-handed hitter with a better potential OPS than Jeff Cirillo or Jason Tyner wouldn’t be that hard to come by. I’m willing to say that Jason Kubel will never be the hitter Michael Cuddyer is; just watching them both at similar points in their careers, Kubel seems more Terry Tiffee than Cuddyer to me. Shit, Michael Restovich looked better than Kubel and he’s a Triple-A
hitter. And Kubel bats left, something this team does not need.

As for the two of you and Souhan, let me stipulate that the Mauer batting second idea was to my knowledge first broached by one of my smart readers, Moroni, in the comments to our first Twins diablog. I quote: “To me the lineup should be shuffled. Mauer is the prototypical two hitter, and lacks power for the three spot. Why have one of your three worst hitters (Punto) take a top spot in the batting order and have a 30HR hitter batting 6th?” This was said on April 2 (and I immediately agreed with him and applauded
him for his wisdom).

The question is, how much more is Morneau worth now than he was two months ago when they were trying to land him with Mauer-like terms?
I’ll end my round this time by agreeing with you both that Santana at
$20-$22 million per year is a better value than Hunter at $13-$15 million a year. But can Santana be had for even that price? I’m guessing the Twins don’t sign either one, cross their fingers on Liriano, and hope that those incredible scouts keep producing the killer dope that has kept this team so likeable for the past five years.

David Brauer

Couple of clarifications:

1. Brad, I wasn’t suggesting giving up on Kubel; he’s just looked like shit at the plate. Britt; I think he shows more authority when he whacks the ball than Tiffee; not disagreeing with you here, since you seems to put him between Cuddy and Tiffee. But that said, Kubel’s OPS is down from ’06, which was down from ’05. My major point is he’s not the answer this year. I still wouldn’t trade young pitching at AA or above, so I guess we go to war with the offense we have. Don’t know much about Craig Wilson, but his OPS–a quite decent .817 last year–makes him worth exploring.

2. Arbitration. It’s true Ortiz and Silva cost $7.3 million this year, but it’s still economical, even at that price, to forestall a year of arbitration–and more importantly, free agency–for one or two players. (I agree with Brad it’s a nice problem to have.) Think of how salaries have escalated, project that cost inflation to the future, and then you realize that extra season of non-arb (instead of arb) and then arb (instead of free agency) can easily save multiple millions. There’s also the salutary effect of keeping a couple of guys in the minors to make sure the spring training lessons hold before climbing into the real foxhole.

Britt, I was at the same Saturday game as you and Cali looked wild and
outside; Miller was the only one that left me feeling good but it’s a small sample size.

Mauer is a hell of a catcher, of course, and I’m not sure if catching is why he’s hurt so much. Me and my pal had a good discussion about whether a 6-5 guy would be a good third baseman. He questioned Mauer’s range–I said it’s a gun position and Mauer’s got that. It would be a shame to lose his smarts behind the plate, though Redmond deserves (but possibly cannot physically withstand) more time behind the plate, especially if we do this next year. Heinz does not appear to the answer. Is it easier to find an OPS-hitting third baseman or a sturdy replacement catcher? I kinda think the latter.

The great risk is losing Santana AND Hunter. The Twins wouldn’t have won four of five divisions by signing a guy like Hunter to the four- or five-year deal he will command. Then again, they might’ve won the World Series (and then quickly fallen on hard times) if they had gone after a similar caliber player one of those contending seasons. But back to reality. Santana: eight years, $200 million. If he signs, he’d be as old at the end of the deal as Hunter would be if we signed him for four.

Brad Zellar

I agree that offense is a bigger concern than the pitching. That’s
pretty much been the consistent thread throughout this string of
successful seasons. The Twins were winning the Central before the
emergence of Morneau and Cuddyer, before Luis Castillo came along, and
before Hunter’s (apparent) late maturation as a hitter. They won with
Jacque Jones batting leadoff, Cristian Guzman second, and Doug fucking
Mientkiewicz hitting third.

Granted, that was an entirely different Central Division, but even as
currently configured this lineup looks like the 1927 Yankees in
comparison with some of those teams. Yes, they’re tied for seventh in
the AL in runs scored, but this is also a team that scuffled to score
runs during its early slide. I don’t think there’s any harm in giving
*anybody* a look, but I just wouldn’t expect guys like Encarnacion,
Freel, or Wilson to be answers to any serious questions about the
offense. We may be stuck with Rondell White.

And for better or worse I also think they’re stuck with the piranhas,
and have to hope that those guys can step it up from time to time (as
they did on Monday against the White Sox) and take a little of the
pressure off the middle of the order.

You gotta figure that with the new stadium hoopla the team’s front
office is going to take a few deep breaths and fork over the cash to
lock up Santana and Morneau. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to
sign Hunter to a longterm contract–will he stay or will he go has
been a persistent theme over the last several seasons–but they
haven’t done so, and I suppose they, like everybody else, were waiting
for him to be a consistent run producer, and had concluded that it
wasn’t in the cards. You know damn well he’s going to hit a rough
patch–the guy has always been streaky–and he’s also been
increasingly injury prone in the last couple years. If he stays
healthy and continues to put up big numbers I’m going to wager that
they’ll think long and hard about making a play for him, if only to
leverage public opinion as they look ahead to the new ballpark. I’m
still not sure that would be such a good idea, but with so few
offensive replacement parts in their system they may feel the
pressure.

It’s going to be interesting to see how Mauer responds when he comes
back. You certainly have to be concerned when such a young (and big)
catcher misses chunks of time with leg injuries so early in his
career. Eventually you have to figure they’ll move him from behind the
plate, but that’ll be a decision for somewhere down the line, although
it may come sooner than the team would like.

Britt Robson

Okay, prediction time. Here are my questions: Where will the Twins finish? Who is the biggest goat between now and October? The most reliable performer? And the most unlikely savior who nevertheless comes through?

I’ll take them in reverse order. Against all odds, I say Jason Bartlett has a whale of a second half in both the field and the plate. Yes, I know he wore down last year. And yes, I know he doesn’t profile as a quality SS that way. That’s why he’s an unlikely savior. More predictably, Pat Neshek will be the new Rincon/Crain, a reliable 8th inning guy who Gardy will increasingly rely on for two innings because he can handle the work and is just that good.

For most reliable performer, I’m going with Neshek and Cuddyer, in
that order. Morneau will have a great season but experience a slump at a very bad time–down the stretch and/or in a series versus AL Central rivals. (There are no losers in a Morneau for Sizemore trade, but I’d still rather have the fleet, five-tool centerfielder.)
Santana will be mostly marvelous, but a titch less reliable than the previous lights out summers.

Goats that don’t count: Kubel and White. They’re already there, and it isn’t going to get that much better. I’m predicting the goat to be a tie between Mauer and Castillo, both for reasons of injuries, which will plague the Twins starting lineup for the rest of the season. Consequently, the Twins will be in a dogfight with the White Sox for third place behind Cleveland and Detroit, respectively. The Tribe’s bullpen is fine, folks, with Betancourt reliable, Mastny gaining experience and Borowski better than his numbers indicate (two horrible outings account for that high ERA. Check out his save percentage–I think he’s 17 for 19 or something like that–for his true performance value) and the rotation bolstered enough by Westbrook’s return to keep the pen from burning out.

As always, thanks for your time and wisdom. Let’s do it again on the 4th of July.

David Brauer

At this point, I like the Twins third. I stick with Detroit as the division winner.

Biggest goat: Ford. Not a vital cog, but this is the place I have to stick my “Why is Lew Ford even in the majors anymore?” gripe. No upside, everything else is slipping (OPS under .600 last year, under .500 this year, mediocre at best outfielder). Among the regulars, I’ll take a flier on Nathan. More hits than innings pitched and several other troubling trends. Not a sure thing but a good longshot.

Most reliable: I’d love to pick Castillo; you get exactly the same good thing every time–uncanny for a position player. But health is an issue. I’ll take Redmond.

Unlikely savior: Kubel, if he does a Cuddy on us second half.

Brad Zellar

Neshek already *is* the new Crain/Rincon. And he already has more
intensity and pitching intelligence than either of them. I worry a
little bit about him wearing down, but I love his zeal and attention
to detail, and he really is a first-rate character and a great story.

And I agree with Britt about Bartlett. I think they guy is just
getting healthy, and he seems to be regaining some of his swagger. At
the very least I don’t think he’s anybody the Twins need to worry
about. I also like Bonser’s chances to surprise. He’s a battler, and
clearly has a pretty fierce desire to get better, so it wouldn’t stun
me much if his learning curve isn’t as steep as, say, Baker’s.

I’ll also go with Cuddyer as the most reliable performer. He’s still
not drawing a ton of walks, but his pitch selection, ability to work
the count, and plate coverage just gets better and better (did you see
the Contreras pitch he looped for an rbi single on Monday? Great at
bat). And Morneau, I believe, is going to have a monster year. I expect he’ll only get better with Mauer back in the lineup.

If the season runs aground in the second half I expect it’s going to
be due to the collective collapse of the piranhas, and is going to
make that whole marketing gambit look foolish. I also think teams are
eventually going to learn to pitch around Hunter, or at least to pitch
him more carefully. I continue to be astonished by how many hittable
pitches he’s seeing, and can’t understand *why*.

I’m a little bit reluctant to make any predictions at this point;
that’s a cop-out, I know, but I’d like to see how the Twins respond
after Mauer comes back, and as the bullpen sorts itself out over the
next couple weeks. And I’m eager to have a look at Slowey. I’m still
going to cling to my belief (an annual delusion, actually) that this
team can hold its own the rest of the way. And I still believe that
both Detroit and Cleveland are going to fall off and let the Twins
back into the race. I’m guessing the wild card is going to again come
out of the Central, and I like the Twins’ chances.