Tag: ginobili

^{Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images}

First, some accountability on my first round predictions. Right now I’m technically five out of seven with the Celts-Hawks still incredibly yet to be determined, but I’d rather not be that simplistic–the devil (and angel) is in the details. For example, if the Celtics do prevail, I’ll have been "right" in my pick of Boston, but like most everyone else I was apparently foolish (and wrong) to automatically discount Atlanta and call for just a five game series. Ditto Detroit and Philadelphia: I called a Pistons sweep, and although the Sixers didn’t really elevate their play in the postseason, Detroit’s overconfidence and lethargy gave a couple away.

Where else was I wrong? Well, I had the Wizards over the Cavs in 6 and the Rockets over the Jazz in 7. The first one was flat-out bad prognostication, although I did correctly point out that the injection of Gilbert Arenas into the mix would ultimately hurt Washington at least as much as it would help them. The Utah-Houston series, as I’ve said before, was a sentimental pick for the Yao-less Rockets, with an acknowledgment that Utah was capable of taking it in 5 (they won in 6). I enjoyed cheering on Houston, and don’t mind the inaccuracy here. But inaccurate it was, and you bet I would have strutted if the Rockets had prevailed.

On the plus side, I was right to be baffled by the pundits mostly going for Dallas and Phoenix despite their lack of home court advantage and, not coincidentally, their ill-advised trades for stars long past their primes. I gave Steve Nash and Phoenix too much credit–and, despite being a huge fan of their grit when it counts, too little credit to the Spurs–in predicting a full 7-game set. But of all the series, I had the Hornets-Mavs sussed perfectly, nailing the length and tenor of the 5-game blowout. That leaves Orlando-Toronto and LA-Denver, two series I mostly had right, calling the victor and being just a little opmistic about how many tilts the loser would take.

Things get a lot tougher to call here in the second round, especially after the desultory showings by the Celts and Pistons and the better-than-expected peformances by the Magic and Cavs. There’s really only one series I am pretty confident about, and even that one may go 6 or 7 games. And that’s where we’ll begin.

Utah (5) vs. L.A. Lakers (1)

Pivotal Points: Has Ronnie Brewer progressed enough during the season to be even halfway able to deter Kobe? Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko both played way over the heads vs. Houston–Okur on the boards, AK-47 via shooting. These three members of Utah’s starting five are crucial, because the Lakers won three of four during the season–including a March win at Utah without either Gasol or Bynum–by letting Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer essentially get theirs on offense but outscoring the Jazz anyway. How chippy will these games get: Utah fouls more (and perhaps harder) than any team in the league and the Lakers move the ball so well that we’re apt to see some nasty collisions. How will the Lakers–especially Lamar Odom–fare under pressure, something they never really faced vs. Denver?

My guesses: Williams and Kobe are going to have huge series, as there’s nobody to stop them on the opposing side. Kobe’s presence really hurts Utah’s ability to use Kyle Korver, a huge minus for the Jazz. In their own way, this is the Lakers’ reprise of Showtime and Utah needs to muck it up with Harpring, Milsapp and their other bruisers, then hope Williams can carry them in the clutch. An uptempo pace favors LA and the forwards are vital: Gasol and Odom are suspected for being soft and a bit of a choker, respectively. If they can hold their own in the paint at both ends, Utah is in serious trouble. It will be interesting to see how Phil Jackson guards Okur: If he’s still on a roll, I’d think about Odom, or even Luke Walton, guarding him outside to deter the trey and to react with alacrity on the pick and rolls. Bringing Gasol out plays into Utah’s hands.

My pick: A lot of people are on the Jazz bandwagon but I just can’t see it, especially against this large, quick, Lakers team. LA in 5 or 6.

Orlando (3) vs. Detroit (2)

Pivotal Points: Can Rasheed Wallace keep his cool enough to help neutralize Dwight Howard? Will he work in the paint and eschew the trey enough to perhaps get Howard in foul trouble? Will we see hack-a-Howard near the end of quarters in close games? Did Chauncey Billups just go through a bad patch vs. Philly or is he past his peak? Can the Pistons keep their focus through a semi-tough series? How much will Flip Saunders utilize his depth?

My guesses: The Magic has no good matchup for Billups–Jameer Nelson and Keyon Dooling lack size and grit and Carlos Arroyo barely played vs. Toronto–but something about Billups looks funky lately and I don’t think he’s ready to take full advantage. Keith Bogans had much better luck guarding Rip Hamilton in the regular season than did starter Maurice Evans, so expect a quick hook there by Stan Van Gundy. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu both had great passing series vs. Toronto and could create open treys if Detroit (necessarily) gets too preoccupied with Howard down low. Saunders has got to use his bench, especially Maxiell and Ratliff to help on Howard, and go with Stuckey to spell Billups. The evidence is that Detroit was scared straight by the losses to Philly and are ready to reassert. If they win both games in Detroit to start the series they could indeed roll. I think they’re ripe for an upset, but a couple stats hold me back: Detroit was second in the NBA in opposing 3pt shooting %, negating an Orlando strength. And Orlando had more turnovers than assists this season–not a good sign against a Pistons defense that can plays well together when the going gets tough.

My Pick: Detroit in 7.

San Antonio (3) vs. New Orleans (2)

Pivotal Points: Will this fulfill its potential as one of the greatest second-round playoff series of all time? The refs are absolutely crucial because the Spurs pound the paint and the dropoff from Tyson Chandler to Hilton Armstrong is precipitous. If Chandler defends the rim without whistles it’s huge nod to the Hornets–and foul trouble for the big man means curtains for New Orleans. Can Jannero Pargo, a poor man’s Ginobili in the Dallas series, match up with Manu, because MoPete or Bonzie Wells ain’t gonna get it done. Can Bruce Bowen prevent Peja from getting open looks? How will Pops play West and Chandler with Duncan and Thomas/Oberto?

My guesses: Neither Chris Paul nor Tony Parker will be as dominant as in round one–but they’ll still put on a hell of a show. The Spurs’ Boy Who Cried Wolf foul protestations will slowly but surely start to penalize them with the refs, but Chandler will still get in foul trouble at least one or two games. I absolutely love the way both of these teams play and am rooting less for one or the other than for both to perform up to their potential. If that happens, I think it comes down to veteran poise and crunchtime experience–don’t be surprised if Finley/Horry/Barry stick a dagger in at some point during the proceedings. For all the talk about Jason Kidd and Shaq, the Kurt Thomas pickup is second only to Gasol among contenders this season, and his ability to keep Duncan fresh and on the court, plus my ongoing belief that you don’t bet against the Spurs until you see that stake through their hearts, has me leaning toward the Spurs. But forcing them to win it in a Game Seven in the Big not so Easy would be extra sweet.

My pick: San Antonio in 6 or 7.

Cleveland (4) vs. Boston (1) [or Atlanta (8)]

Pivotal Points: Is the luster off the Celtics’ confidence or
is getting the stodgy Cavs after the uber-athletic Hawks all the elixir they need to reassert their primacy over the East? Uh, who the hell guards Lebron James; Mr. Posey, it is time for your super-closeup. Now that Doc Rivers has totally screwed up his rotation by deep-sixing Eddie House and Tony Allen while elevating the aged Sam Cassell, can Sam I Am at least hit some of those shots he clanked and then stupidly eschewed in the Atlanta series (because House would have made them)? Is Kevin Garnett finally ready to put all those whispers to rest and go at a past-his-prime Ben Wallace, or will he continue to get 22-10-7 and hurt his team with selflessness in crunchtime? Last but not least, what has happened to Ray Allen?

My guesses: The Celtics will need to play really well–with much, much more poise and skill than vs. Atlanta–to pull this out in 6 or 7. LeBron is going to win at least one game all by himself and I think Z Ilgauskas, Wallace and Joe Smith in the paint plus Szczerbiak and Booby Gibson spotting up outside makes the Cavs dangerous on the offensive end and complements to the triple-teamed James. For the Celts to win, their erstwhile relentless D, led by KG and Rondo, need to create turnovers and transition baskets, plus Pierce and Allen need to compensate for their mediocre D (in Allen’s case make that horrible D) by proving they are indeed crunchtime stars. That will spread the floor enough for Garnett to work in the paint. But as a confirmed KG-lover I admit I’m rattled by what I’ve seen from this Beantown squad in the first round. It wouldn’t surprise me if both the Celts and the Pistons went down. I resisted the Pistons upset, but Detroit isn’t playing against the best player on the planet.

My Pick: Cleveland in 6 or 7.

^{AFP/Getty Images/Gregory Shamus}
 

Yeah, I know I still owe the second part of the Wolves season recap. But I confess that this steady diet of *quality* NBA basketball has made a return to Wolves-think fairly depressing. I will get to it in the next few days. Meanwhile, here are some thoughts on the playoffs thus far…

Celtics and Pistons both in a dogfight

Kevin Garnett and Flip Saunders are back in the pressure-cooker. Both have had very successful careers that are at least slightly besmirched by their (thus far) inability to elevate their game when it matters most. I find it interesting and inevitable that the KG backlash is occurring on the heels of the two losses in Atlanta. First of all, it wasn’t his man torching the club from outside all game–why Doc Rivers chose to ride with Ray Allen on Joe Johnson instead of throwing James Posey or Tony Allen on JJ, or even Rondo, with Allen switching to Bibby, is, ah perplexing. Or incompetent. I could also mention that Garnett had a whopping six steals and a team-best plus +7 in 41:59, meaning the Celts were minus -12 in the 6:01 he wasn’t on the floor.

But KG was around for the entire fourth quarter collapse. And in addition to Joe Johnson’s 20 points in the period, Josh Smith had 12 points and 5 rebounds (versus KG’s 5 and 2), which included 8-8 FT. Going against Smith and Al Horford, both of whom he can finesse and muscle in the low block, Garnett should have stopped deferring to a dinged up Pierce and a defensively-bewildered Allen and started to go for his. Because with Cleveland, either Detroit or Orlando, and the Western champ on the horizon, it is not going to get any easier. I know this is not in KG’s natural make-up. But as one who named him the year’s MVP and steadfastly defended him ever since Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley unfairly called him out in the playoffs five or six years ago, he needs to see that giving himself and his team the crunchtime dimension of him in the low block is crucial to the Celts success further down the road. No time like the present to sift it in.

But KG has it easy compared to Flip Saunders. Always a player’s coach (meaning he doesn’t challenge anybody and relies on self-policing) and a stickler for midrange jumpers, Flip simply doesn’t have the tools most vital for guiding a team through the gauntlet of playoff hoops–the capacity to trigger that extra gear the players themselves didn’t even know they had, and the ability to win games at the free throw line. The Celtics’ losses are fairly easy to explain–they were way too overconfident in Game 3 and then got bushwacked by a white-hot outside shooter in Game 4. But the Pistons’ performance has been horrible thus far–raise your hand if you think Philly won Games 1 and 3 more than Detroit lost them. What happened to Chauncey Billups? Seriously, Andre Miller is exactly the kind of matchup he should be dominating–Miller is if anything a poor man’s Billups–and yet Miller is the one coming up large. And isn’t it time to start running more plays for Tayshaun Prince, who remains a 4th option on this club after Rip, ‘Sheed, and Billups, all of whom seem to be both overconfident and lacking synergy while Prince keeps bailing them out with jumpers on the baseline.

I think the Celts and Pistons will both ultimately prevail. But the second round in the East has suddenly gotten a lot more interesting.

Magic and Lakers first to advance

The only great surprise here is that George Karl is apparently coming back for another year in Denver. Okay, if Karl’s not responsible for what may be the biggest waste of pure talent on an NBA franchise, who is? How can any self-respecting coach sit and watch an entire season of opponents consistently getting into the paint–off the dribble, feeding the post, interior passes, transition, you name it–and not take drastic steps to curtail it? All year long, the Nugs frittered away 15 point leads and made 15 point comebacks on games they lost by 5-10 points. They are a bunch of lazy underachievers who have a pile of individual accolades and absolutely no desire to play as a team. Whether Karl is the instigator or merely the enabler of that culture, he’s got to go.

What won the series for the Lakers was ball movement, which ranks with team defense and superstar wattage as the requisite X factors for a championship ballclub. In Kobe, Gasol and Odom, LA has the perfect front line for the new hand-checking rules, a trio that can all tussle in the paint and extend their games out 17 feet (for Kobe of course it is beyond the 3-pt arc). Each has the combination of height and quickness to be a nightmare matchup one-on-one, so if all decide to sling the rock to the open man, it is difficult to imagine how they are stopped. Then again, they just got through with four games with the Nugs, who can make anyone look good on offense.

In the underground series that nobody watched, the Magic dispatched the Raps in 5, which makes perfect sense when you consider that there is nobody on Toronto’s roster who can match up with Dwight Howard. And yes, it really is that simple.

Spurs and Jazz on the verge

I make no bones about rooting hard for the Houston Rockets in their series with the Jazz. I’ve always regarded Yao as the most overrated NBA player this side of Vince Carter, and so when Houston keep ratcheting up their 22-game winning streak after Yao went down, I egotistically felt validated and started paying attention to what they were doing. And I fell in love with the way rooks Luis Scola and Carl Landry muck it up in the paint at both ends of the court, and noticed the parallels between Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett–their mixture of breathtaking talent and self-effacing teamwork. And Shane Battier needs to be on the USA Olympic Team, as he combines the best of the European style (smart in the half court, good from beyond the arc, passes well without a lot of fanfare) with the American grit of tenacious D. I knew in my head Houston would probably not fare well versus the Jazz, especially with Rafer Alston on the shelf for the first two games at home, but my heart went with Houston as I picked them in 7.

My head was right but my heart is satiated. Houston has played inspiring ball thus far, with Landry recovering from a slow start to deliver a key block to win Game 3 on the road, this after Carlos Boozer knocked out his tooth with a forearm that the refs didn’t even whistle. Battier has been marvelous and McGrady is a wonderfully tortured soul, sloe-eyed and pretending implacability as the emotions race across his face. It’s just that the Jazz have the matchup that matters, in this case at the point position. Deron Williams gives the impression that he can abuse Alston off the dribble whenever he feels like it. In Game 4, Rick Carlisle said as much before D-Will turned him into a prophet with a pair of almost-casual crunchtime drives to the hoop. Alston simply doesn’t have the bulk to deter Williams, so no matter how much Scola and Landry and Mutombo negate Boozer–which they have, far more than Yao could ever dream–Utah can get to the rack.

It’s been said many times, but having Kyle Korver along with Okur to stretch the defense makes it absolutely imperative that the opposing point at least throw Williams off stride a bit. If and when the Jazz get by Houston (and I can’t emotionally throw the Rockets under the bus yet), it will be interesting to see how Derek Fisher fares, not to mention Jordan Farmar. The Jazz need a monster series from their point guard to counteract LA’s advantage almost everywhere else, but they just might get it.

Meanwhile, as someone who grew up in Boston and spent his boyhood watching the Celts rack up 11 rings in 13 years (yeah, I’m that old, and yeah it was as much fun as it sounds–why do you think I write about hoops?), I’ve got to say that with each passing year,
the Spurs give me more and more vintage Celtic flashbacks. They aren’t exact matches, of course, but it is hard not to notice the similarities between Bill Russell and Tim Duncan, or John Havilcek and Manu Ginobili. You never hear Tony Parker get mentioned as one of the game’s great point guards, yet there is he, dismantling opponents in the playoffs–ditto Sam and KC Jones, back in the day. As for the coaches, well, Red Auerbach and Gregg Popovich both have an asshole streak that gets transferred into a virtue on the sideline. In Game 3 against the Suns, Oberto didn’t rotate over to stop a layup, allowing Phoenix to pull to 27-14, down 13 instead of 15, late in the first quarter. Pops immediately called a timeout and chewed Oberto up and down.

Think about that for a moment. Or think about Duncan, Ginobili and Parker in crunch time–or, hell, Robert Horry. You think the Suns have three more wins in them to take the Spurs four in a row?

A eulogy for Phoenix, but not for Dallas

I feel badly for Steve Nash, one of the classiest players in recent times, and an amazing competitor who more than anybody has had to sublimate his game since the Shaq trade. I go with the conventional wisdom that the Shaq deal both doomed the Suns to an earlier exit than they otherwise might have achieved with the Matrix, and was still a worthwhile gamble for Steve Kerr to have attempted, given that it also marginally increased their chances of winning it all for a roster that is running out of time. So, kudos to Kerr for having the stones to make the swap, but let’s remember that the flameout of the Suns was utterly predictible. All these jackasses who claimed the Suns would beat the Spurs are now blaming Mike D’Antoni, as if this particular coach has ever played any other way but to exploit opponents who had guys like Shaq on the floor. Do people really want to blame D’Antoni for the way the Spurs have destroyed Phoenix on the pick and roll during this series? I seem to recall a pretty good coach, name of Phil Jackson, who couldn’t get Shaq to play the pick and roll either. It requires a lot of stop and go, plant and pivot, and that is something a man of Shaq’s size had difficulty with before he was old and had to work hard to stay in shape.

But back to Nash: Does anybody else miss the freelancing Nash who flew down the floor, dribbling like a dervish, deciding which hand he was going to use for a delicious bounce pass to a fellow-flying teammate for a showtime slam? Does anybody else miss the frenetic pace that discombobulated opponents and gave the advantage to the selfless passer and deadly long-range shooter who would stick the trey if you sped to guard the hoop and shimmied his way into the paint if you stopped at the arc, secure in the knowledge at least two teammates, and maybe three, were perched at various points outside the arc to take advantage of the driive and kick? The presence of Shaq, and the emergence of Amare Stoudamire’s terrifying midrange game, has pretty much taken the magic out of Nash’s hands, making it extremely difficult for him to build up the rhythms and patterns that bedevil those guarding him. Now when the Suns need Nash to come up with something miraculous, it is totally outside their normal flow of play, and that flow was always Nash’s (and D’Antoni’s) secret weapon. Too bad. Don’t rip Nash or D’Antoni for this debacle; hey, don’t even rip Kerr or Shaq, who have done all they can to turn flax into gold this season down in the desert. But it just ain’t gonna happen.

There is no way I am going to wax rhapsodically in a similar fashion about the way the Mavericks have destroyed their team. The Jason Kidd trade was stupidity incarnate. Consider that the only "defense" people had of the deal when it was made–smart people anyway, who knew they had to acknowledge Kidd wasn’t what he used to be–was to argue that Kidd really hadn’t lost two or three steps on defense, he just became unmotivated in New Jersey. Ah, I see, he’s not old, just a malingerer.

No, he’s old. As I’ve said a few times already on this site, he’s not worth Diop and Harris straight up, without the two draft picks. In fact Dallas is old, and unless Stackhouse and Terry shoot lights out beside Dirk in the next few games, they are going down hard, soon to be dismantled. Too bad for Avery Johnson, who did a marvelous job hatching a Maginot Line defense in place of the unsuccessful traps in an effort to stop Chris Paul. And it has worked the past two games. The problem is that Erick Dampier can’t carry Tyson Chandler’s jockstrap, putting pressure on Dirk to rebound as well as score and distribute. That and the fact that Stackhouse and Josh Howard are wilting under pressure, giving the lie to all those citations about the Mavs’ playoff experience–Dallas is experienced like Hillary Clinton is experienced.

Even if I wasn’t in contempt of the Kidd trade, it would be hard to root against the Hornets. Tyson Chandler is the second-best center in the NBA behind Dwight Howard; better than Yao, certainly, and everything that Marcus Camby is supposed to be. He allows Chris Paul to gamble on defense (or take a play or two off) out on the perimeter, is able to rotate over when the iffy MoPete and Peja lose their man, and has tremendous, almost telepathic, communication with David West when protecting the paint. Then you’ve got heroes coming off the bench–Pargo for 30? The rook Wright in Game 4? Even Peja isn’t choking. So, while I’ll shed a virtual tear for the exit of Nash and (the soon to be scapegoated?) D’Antoni, I’ll cheer the demise of Dallas (despite my affection for Mark Cuban).