Okay, we’ve waited until the last minute and now it’s time to roll. I still reserve the right to change my mind about Coach of the Year and MVP.
Defensive Player of the Year
Winner: Kevin Garnett
Runner-Up: Rasheed Wallace
Honorable Mention: Tyson Chandler, Kobe Bryant, Raja Bell
Comment: The Celts phenomenal improvement with untested and proven-mediocre defenders surrounding him makes this the easiest pick of the postseason. Wallace and Chandler were both stalwarts in the paint for very good defensive units, Kobe wanted to play D a little bit more this season, and Bell has lost less than Bruce Bowen.
Sixth Man of the Year
Winner: Manu Ginobili
Runner Up: Jason Terry
Honorable Mention: Leandro Barbosa
Comment: Ginobili was the most clutch player in the league this year and arguably the real leader of the Spurs this season. Terry and Barbosa were heads above the rest but well behind Manu.
Most Improved Player
Winner: Hedo Turkoglu
Runner Up: LaMarcus Aldridge, Mike Dunleavy, Al Jefferson
Comment: Second-year guys are *supposed* to improve, which penalizes Aldridge a bit here and gives more credit to Turkoglu, who held firm to second on the Magic’s pecking order despite the signing of Rashard Lewis. I’m not the only person who has been sneering at Dunleavy ever since he went too high in the draft–kudos to him for the perseverence. The Jefferson shout-out is not a homer call; "Big Al" assumed team leadership, played out of position all season and still finished tied for second in double-doubles.
Rookie of the Year
Winner: Luis Scola
Runner Up: Al Horford
Honorable Mention: Thaddeus Young, Kevin Durant, Al Thornton
Comment: That Durant is favored to win this award makes as much sense as Vince Carter leading the all star voting all those years. The easiest thing in the world to do is chuck up shots for a losing team, which Durant did at an inaccurate rate (43%, 29% from 3pt). Yeah, I know Scola is 45 (actually he’ll be 28 at the end of the month), but he’s still a rookie and was incredibly vital to the Rockets’ continued surge after Yao went down. Horford make the Hawks look smart and got them into the playoffs, two things very few people expect anymore. Young was better than Durant and Thornton at being of value to his ballclub.
Coach of the Year
Winner: Rick Adelman
Runner Up: Eddie Jordan
Honorable Mention: Phil Jackson, Byron Scott, Mo Cheeks, Stan Van Gundy, Doc Rivers
Comment: The second-toughest category behind MVP. Both Adelman and Jordan lost their top two players for extended stretches of the season–and the person considered their best player for at least 25 games–and still finished better than expected at the beginning of the year. Adelman gets the nod because it was his first season in Houston and players had to adjust to a totally different offensive scheme. The five honorable mentions are all worthy winners in another year. Dishonorable mention goes to Isiah Thomas and George Karl.
Most Valuable Player
Winner: Kevin Garnett
Runner Up: Kobe Bryant
Honorable Mention: Chris Paul, Deron Williams
Comment: Ask me tomorrow and I’ll probably say Kobe. In fact, if it wasn’t such a cop-out, I’d give co-MVPs to Kobe and KG. I won’t feel badly if either one wins it. My bias is with Garnett, a player I covered on the beat for a dozen years, seeing the selflessness and the infectious effort everyone’s raving about now on the East Coast, up close over and over again. By contrast, I’d long disdained Kobe’s selfish mood swings and begrudged him the three rings he never truly appreciated as he vied for alpha status with Shaq.
But Garnett has more than history to recommend him. The unprecedented improvement–and for those who justifiably cite Ray Allen, remember the squad also lost a burgeoning Al Jefferson–the establishment of a defensive identity when there wasn’t one there previously. And as for the pure numbers, KG slight decline in points and rebounds is almost totally a function of him wisely being rested back from 40 to 35 mpg to be ready for the postseason. The guy hasn’t lost anything, and has rediscovered his passion for defense, the one element of his game that had begun to leave his lifeforce the past two years in Minnesota.
The case for Kobe? The second-best player on his team, Pau Gasol, played only 27 games with him. The third best, Andrew Bynum, played only 35. More often than not, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, Vlad Rad and Luke Walton provided the bulk of his supporting cast. Could KG have taken that crew to the best record in the West? This was the year Kobe grew up on the court. It was his best season in a spectacular career, and, unlike Garnett, he’s never won MVP. There is no wrong choice here.
I don’t think New Orleans and Utah would even be in the playoffs without Paul and Williams, and Paul’s gaudy numbers plus his team’s leap forward would get him the nod in most years. But this is a special year. And with that, we’ll move on to the playoff picks…
Washington (5) vs. Cleveland (4)
Pivotal points: Can Gilbert Arenas be content with being a sporadic microwave and defer alpha status to Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison? Will Jamison’s outside shooting take Ben Wallace out of the low block (or out of the game)? Is LeBron’s back ailment enough to prevent him from being LeBron?
My guesses: Arenas can’t control himself, and both wins and loses at least one game for the Wiz. Aside from LeBron’s penetration, the Cavs will have difficulty scoring inside, making Brendan Haywood and Jamison’s contribution on the defensive boards critical to the series (and Joe Smith an intriguing X factor). Goaded by DeShawn Stevenson calling him overrated (how stupid is that?) and his own sense of pride, LeBron rises to the occasion as best he can. It’s probably foolhardy to bet against the league’s best player in a first-round playoff series, but with all the Wizards’ injury woes, they still finished a mere two games behind the Cavs this season, and have the additional motivation of losing out twice in this budding rivalry.
My pick: If it goes seven games, I don’t think I’d align myself against LeBron at home. But I don’t think it is going seven. Washington in 6.
Phoenix (6) vs. San Antonio (3)
Pivotal points: As always in big games involving Shaq, how will the refs call plays in the paint? If Duncan or Stoudamire get in early foul trouble, the other team benefits greatly. A first-round series vs. physical San Antonio favors Nash, who has previously played them further into the postseason after he’s suffered some wear and tear. The narrow gap between sixth men Ginobili and Barbosa widened considerably this year. Finally, Kurt Thomas has changed teams.
My guesses: There hasn’t been a more unstoppable player in the NBA the past two months (more than Kobe or LeBron) than Amare Stoudamire. The Spurs consistently have beaten the Suns because of their nonpareil perimeter D, but with Shaq as a force and Amare freed up to roam, their inside-outside game is formidable. There has never been a more competitive first-round series, as these are two superb teams who both know their window is closing fast. Bottom line, I’ve watched Pops and Fundamental and more recently Manu and Parker come up big when it matters for so long, that I’ll have to see the stake go through their heart before I assume they’re dead.
My pick: San Antonio in 7.
Dallas (7) vs. New Orleans (2)
Pivotal points: The Hornets seem to be th
e longer and quicker team, Dallas obviously the more experienced in the postseason. Can the Mavs’ outside shooters–especially Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse, but also Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd–score often enough to test the young New Orleans players under playoff pressure? Will Peja continue to choke in big games? And will the Mavs’ first-round loss a year ago be a plus or minus in their mental makeup?
My guesses: I don’t understand the infatuation with the Mavs on the part of some pundits. Dallas has no answer for Tyson Chandler at either end of the court. Chris Paul is a nightmarish matchup for an aging Kidd. Meanwhile, David West is a pretty good matchup for the Mavs’ go-to guy, Nowitzki. Yeah, Dallas has a lot more playoff experience–chokes to Miami in the finals and Golden State. If Terry and Stack are "on fire" from the perimeter they might be able to filch a game or two. But there’s no question who is the better team here.
My pick: New Orleans in 5.
Utah (4) vs. Houston (5)
Pivotal points: With Rafer Alston on the shelf for the first two games, can Bobby Jackson deter Deron Williams and run the offense without looking for his own shot too much? Can Houston wear down Carlos Boozer? Which decline is more costly and less likely to be righted, Kirilenko’s overall game or McGrady’s shot selection and accuracy? Who wins the battle or two very good benches?
My guesses: As much as Jackson can body up D-Ron, he has never been a competent floor general and could find himself in foul trouble to boot, making rook Aaron Brooks a key participant in the first few games. Losing Yao doesn’t hurt the Rockets in this series: Scola, Landry, Hayes and even Battier in certain instances are better options on Okur and Boozer than the Yao, and Mutombo can be rotated in as a change of pace in the low block. The math is pretty simple: Utah doesn’t lose at home and the injury to Alston gives the Jazz a great chance to steal at least one of the first two games on the road. All that said, I love what Rick Adelman has done with this team and consider them the most underrated ballclub in the playoffs.
My pick: It could be Utah in 5 or 6 if they get the early jump. But my gut tells me Houston in 7.
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