Wolves News, NBA photo from 2005
No great secrets were divulged in the 15-minute phone conversation I had with Fred Hoiberg this morning, nor did I expect him to spill the beans about what will happen on Thursday. But he was kind enough to give me the time during his busy schedule and what follows is as close to verbatim as my flying typing fingers would allow. If I were to handicap what he said, I'd say it is a tossup between Mayo and Love if the team stays pat, and that a trade of the #3 down to anywhere between #12-13 isn't out of the question.
Rake: Rather than give away any strategy or involve ourselves in the sort of guessing games and myriad scenarios that have filled your days lately, why don't we start with you telling me who you like from this class that you've seen, regardless of whether the Wolves will take him at #3 or #31 or whatever. Who will you feel a little proud about if they go on and have a really good NBA career?
Fred Hoiberg: Well after the first two guys-it is pretty clear Rose and Beasley are one-two. But in that next group there are a lot of guys we like-Mayo, Love, Lopez, Gallinari. We just saw Bayliss and Gordon, two guys who get to the free throw line better than anybody in the country, which is something we need to get better at, so those two guys make some sense. There are strengths and weaknesses in all their games, so what you do is try and find who fits best with your team and what you are trying to do. We feel it is a very deep draft and all will be solid NBA players. You can go all the way to 12 or 13 and get a very good player who can possibly start.
R: Which brings up the possibility of a trade, if you can leverage one of those 12 or 13 guys you like and still add another piece.
FH: Yeah as Kevin [McHale] has been saying all week, teams won't really come out with their best offer until the last minute. Right now nobody has offered anything that is jumping out at us and we have the pick of the litter after the top two so we're happy with where we are.
R: What areas of the game are you looking to bolster beyond the improvement of the guys on your roster, and how likely can those areas be addressed in this draft?
FH: I think shooting is a priority. Just so the defender is not always sitting in Al Jefferson's lap. O.J. Mayo will be as good a shooter as anyone in this draft. We saw him in Chicago and he was filling it up. Kevin Love is a legitimate three point shooter as a big and is a great passer. Bayliss is a good shooter. Gordon has a great shot. Gallinari made 23 out of 25 college threes in the workout we saw. It was against a chair, but he missed the first one and then hit 23 of his next 24 and he's a legitimate 6-10, just a quarter inch shorter than McHale.
Otherwise you just get somebody who is going to fit into your group. Lopez fits our needs because of his size and his wide shoulders. Love does because of his savvy and smarts--he fills gaps defensively and immediately helps our fast break because of his outlet passing and just does so many little things. Mayo averaged 21 points in the toughest league in country last year and has had the spotlight on him since he was growing up in Kentucky.
R: You've already done this to some extrent, but let me throw four names out at you and have you respond as if the Wolves just drafted this guy. Describe why you picked him and why he fits in with your ballclub. The first one is Mayo.
FH: I think OJ Mayo when we look back in 5 years we'll say he was the best shooter in this draft. He has very good range, he is very consistent and he is a guy I don't think the moment will ever be too big for him because the spotlight has been on him for so long. He defends well and you can play him at both [guard] spots-he's not a pure point but he can get you into your basic sets.
R: What about Love?
FH: Looking at this draft class I think he is the smartest player. He is a skilled big which is something we need and there are not many in the league right now. His passing ability is just unbelievable--he sees things before they happen and already knows where the ball is going to go before it hits his hands. He is a great rebounder and shoots the ball well, with legit three-point range, so we'd be able to space him around Al.
R: Lopez?
FH: Lopez probably fills one of our biggest needs which is a legitimate center. He averages almost 20 points per game and did that although he got double-teamed almost every night. We saw him have a big game against Texas. He runs pretty well for his size and is a legitimate 7-1.
R: Finally, Gallinari.
FH: Gallinari grew up as a point guard--two years ago he was a 6-5 point guard and then he shot up 5 inches, so now he's a small forward with point guard skills. He can go right or left and has great shooting skills. He has the potential to be a star in our league.
R: If you were to make a trade, would it likely involve a more established player and/or a better draft pick?
FH: I think both those scenarios will be there. I don't think we'll see the best offers on the table until Thursday. But [then] we'll probably see different scenarios with draft picks or getting rid of a contract or a [established] player who makes sense for us or all of the above. But if it doesn't make sense for us we don't need to do it, we'll just go out and get the player we want.
R: Because you're already a young team is it important for the players you pick to be NBA-ready? Is it possible you guys would take a project?
FH: I think the guys we are looking at are all NBA-ready guys, considering that all could step in and play next year.
R: Do all the workouts you guys schedule change your mind ever or just reinforce opinions you had?
FH: More reinforce opinions. You try and put guys in spots where they are uncomfortable to see how they handle it. And if they don't handle it well, you don't cross them off but you go back and look at the film and see how they handled those situations [then]. And you do your thorough background checks and you have your sit down interview, which is a very important part of process.
R: Without naming any names, did anyone dramatically screw themselves or improve as a result of this process?
FH: I don't think so. You've got to remember that these guys are flying across the country and doing five or six workouts in six days, and that this is only one performance that you are seeing. But you do get a look and you want to get a look. It is part of the process but not the most important part.
R: I'm figuring that if you don't land a big man with your first pick, that, given the depth of bigs later in the draft, you will probably get a big with one of your two later picks. Is that a fair assumption?
FH: I would think so unless somebody drops who we feel can't pass on at 31 or 34. But you're right [about the depth], there should be somebody there for us.
Hope I'm not bothering anyone with this but if you guys wanna meet and talk draft during the show you can come by on IRC on DALnet, channel #draftnight ... For the ones who don't know how IRC works, it's real easy, see here:
http://upload.ispi.be/Files/DraftNightwithTheRake.avi
I was almost convinced. S&P's efficincy ratings had made me consider Beasley the ace of the draft and Love to be close second. I wasn't going to go as far as think that the Wolves should trade their future one to move up and grab Beasley, but if he slipped to us great. But, the topper was that I had actually become convinced the Love was the best pick for the Wolves. But, last night, I had an epiphany.
I believe the wolves shouldn't draft the BPA but fill a need instead. More than anything the Wolves need Al Jefferson to dominate the power forward position next year and that is not going to happen unless they add a center that can play significant minutes at the 5 spot who has the length to draw the attention of opposing centers away from big Al while guarding the center position as well.
I also started to devalue S&P's statistical analysis. Don't get me wrong, I think it is a good tool, but it is not the ultimate truth teller and there is a danger in relying solely on these numbers. We are comparing collegiate ball to pro ball and yes, basketball is basketball and you cna either play or you can't. However, professional basketball favors the superior athletes and in Kevin Love's case he either gets burned and left standing flat-footed when trying to guard the Kobe Bryants, Tyshuan Prince's and Manu's of the league or he gets overpowered by the centers and powerforwards who have greater length. I like to see a nice outlet pass as much as any fan, but are we really going to get excited over Love's apparant mastery of this skill. I am not saying he won't be an effective pro, but the Wolves won't compete with him and Al Jefferson playing together, in my opinion.
Beasley is the superior athlete to Love, but his position still creates problems when matched with Al Jefferson. I really hope that the Wolves are done with the experiment of playing Al Jefferson at the 5. He was clearly better as the power forward and the one sure star the Wolves have is Al Jefferson and not Beasley, Love or Mayo. The Wolves should draft a player that compliments Al's game and that is Lopez. He is the best Center in the draft, he has length and is a legit 7 footer and he has talent to play in the NBA.
I am all in favor of trading down to fill the center need with someone other than Lopez and drafting a scoring 3, but the Center spot has to be the priority of the Wolves. That was my intuition coming out of this last season and I was swayed from this position by those with better number crunching ability than I. However, I'm going back to it now. The Wolves greatest priority should be to figure out how to play Al Jefferson all his minutes as the power forward so he can become a night in and night out dominant NBA player. The way to do that is to find a competent 7 footer to play beside him.
Fair enough. Here's the rub with the Wolves (I think Jim brought it up below): no matter who they draft, they will likely be the 2nd best player on the team. While my stats stuff has been geared to find the BPA, there is something to be said about BPAs being different for different teams.
When it comes down to a Wolves-specific approach with no hedged bets, I think the Wolves should offer up the Heat's 2nd round pick + Brewer for Beasley. If they want Foye, I think that would be fine as well, but if they start asking for both that becomes a bit more problematic and even though I talk like "Beasley or Bust" would be a nice idea, it would be sacrificing an awful lot and I just don't think it's realistic with this group in the FO. I'd do it in a heart beat, but with the Wolves it's not realistic.
Short of Beasley falling to 3, I think the absolute best way forward with a realistic draft approach is to try and work a deal with (gasp) Portland that would go like this:
To the Blazers:
- Toine's deal (Mr. Allen can afford it)
- Mayo
To the Wolves:
- Pryz
- Martell Webster
- Finnish PG
- whatever pick the Blazers move up to
The Wolves then put their 2 2nd rounders into Euro big men like Pekovic and Asik and tell them not to come over until cap space clears in 2 years. They draft Alexander or Gallinari (it sounds like the Blazers may make their way up to 6 or 10) and enter next season with this:
Foye/Jaric
Webster/Brewer
(Alexander/Gallinari)/Gomes
Jefferson/Richard
Pryz/Richard
Next draft they should have 2-3 picks, some free agent money, 2 nice stashed away Euros, and a few young assets to trade up for Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, or Demar Derozan.
I'm excited for whatever happens tonight. I anticipate a trade. Does Portland have that strong a desire or need to move up and get Mayo with Roy on the roster. THey would make a good combination, but it would be a little like our situation with Foye and having two combos and not a traditional point. I think they would like Foye, but I wonder if they might be just as happy with keeping their pick. Do they like Mayo thaat much. I haven't heard much talk of Portland coveting our pick like the Clippers, Charlotte, Milwuakee, etc. But, if they'd do it...
I still worry they end up with Mayo, Love or even Beasley at #3 and address their need for a center with the 2nd round pick, but still don't manage to improve the center position on their roster and end up next year playing Jefferson out of position again. If Beasley falls to 3, I'd definitely take him, but I'd worry about how well Jefferson and he manage to coexist on the same team. I think we would be loaded with one of the most talented combination for offensive scoring from the forward positions, but would fall short of expectations for tansforming that into a winning combination.
Portland has to make some moves because they have too many players and picks. Something simply has to give. They need a guard to play opposite Roy.
I agree completely. Portland is in an unbelievable situation, where they already have Roy & Oden, and have about 8 pieces they can offer up to get a third piece that would guarantee contendership in the next decade. If I were them, I'd be throwing Pryzibilla, Webster or Outlaw, and Aldridge at Miami for Beasley and Blount. As a Minnesota fan, I hope it doesn't happen. Something tells me we'd struggle to keep up with Roy-Beasley-Oden. Yikes.
My mind changes about every 15 minutes on who the 3rd best player in the draft is, but I agree with Andy B that the whole Jefferson at center thing has to go. Where I disagree is in the solution. I think our defense with Brook Lopez would be equal to our defense with Beasley or Love--(assuming they play the 4 next to Jefferson's 5). In all cases, it would suck. Of the three players, Beasley is by far the most capable of playing the 3 (it might be his best position in the NBA) so I'd jump at the chance to get him, and hope like hell we draft his good buddy DeAndre Jordan after moving into the mid-to-late first.
I must say that OJ's interviews make him a more attractive pick than I thought. I realize that interviews don't mean much (I loved the way JVG hammered this home last night--his purely professional approach to the game is a breath of fresh air after reading all sorts of BS in anticipation of the draft) but I still thought OJ came off as very humble, which wasn't exactly how I pictured him. He admits that he wants Miami, but would love to play anywhere, MN included. I'd feel very good if we just stayed at 3 and took OJ. He and Foye would be a formidable backcourt that would more than adequately relieve Jefferson of double-team pressure, and Bassy-McCants make an above average pair of reserves. I could safely assume that the backcourt issues are resolved. For a rebuilding team, that's a big statement.
I don't hear much talk about the knicks, but they seem ideal trade partners. If Mayo is overvalued, he's even moreso to the knicks. His front page credentials could only help. Also, everyone on the wolves team is undervalued. Granted, there's alot of chaff on their roster, but it might be an opportunity to fleece a desperate team, still getting pick number 6 and picking up (likely) Love.
...now is there anyone of value on these knickerbockers?
Value? On the Knicks? I can't see them giving up their only good player (Lee) just to move up 3 spots in the draft...
I agree with those who predict the Wolves will make a deal. Mayo seems overvalued right now, so, depending on what you can get, it's logical.
I actually still think the Bulls will pull a minor surprise and take Beasley. Miami will then take Rose. But what do I know?
Overall, I don't think this is a great draft for the Wolves. I tend to trust the numbers guys track records over the more conventional approach, and they all indicate that most of the best prospects--Beasley, Love, Speights--are probably 4's (or, perhaps rather, unideal compliments to Big Al down low); and it forecasts rather weak in legit centers--even of the lunchpail/dirtywork variety--and wings. If nothing comes down the pipe in terms of trade offers when the Wolves are on the clock, I'd just prefer they draft Love and get on with it. But as much as I like him, I concede he's not ideal (position, size, the fact a Jefferson-Love frontcourt could get taken behind the shed athletically some nights...).
Also, there seems to be a discouraging lack of good defenders in this class.
Of the prospects who have been linked to the Wolves, either by their workouts, rumors, or just "fits"...
Personal favs (without regard to projected draft position):
Rose
Love
Chalmers
Alexander
Could Get Moderately Excited About:
Gallinari
Hibbert
Speights
CDR
Dorsey
"Meh":
Mayo
Lopez
Jordan
Batum
Rush
Maybe I Need to Root for Another Team:
Bayless
Gordon
One of the things that really bugs me about this front office is that they have Foye and Brewer as trade bait for Miami with players like Chalmers and CDR/Rush on the board in the mid-teens. Beasley + Chalmers while giving up Foye or Beasley + Rush/CDR while giving up Brewer (and Miami's future 1st and this year's 2nd) would make me a happy camper. Hell, Love and CDR will make me rush out and buy a new jersey and cap to go along with $3 season tickets. I'd even settle for Hibbert or Ajinca instead of CDR in the teens...although the jersey may have to transform itself into a plain t-shirt or a mug.
The t-shirt is great, especially if it keeps the f*** the wolves shirt on the hanger. It's a plus for the wolves and a plus for mpls. I think any route to get Beasley short of a Ricky Williams trade ends up in the wolves favor. Even if he plays no defense, it would be fun to watch... definitely buy the jersey material. In fact, if McHale pulled it off, it might even be a McHale Jersey.
I would even spring for a McHale jersey if he got Beasley. It sure as hell would be the McFoyo jersey I'm planning to get if OJ comes to town:
http://www.canishoopus.com/2008/6/24/558207/preorder-while-you-can
One scenario that I like is wolves trading with clippers. I hear the clippers are desperate for mayo / beasley. Wolves trade the #3 and Walker for Kaman and the #7. That would put a proven NBA center alongside jefferson and the wolves could still land a strong contributor at #7. I'm not sure the clips would go for this, but they would save money and that is a big deal for their owner. Also come salary cap details would have to be worked out.
I really hope the Wolves do not select Mayo. They should keep the #3 pick and take Kevin Love.
Devil's advocate:
1. Drafting Love moves Big Al to Center.
All regular readers of this blog know that Big Al sucks at center (at least relatively). I say, so what. Both Al and Love can play center and get lunched occasionally. But they will also create some mismatched on offense. Suppose a big center guards Al. Love can score in the post against men his size (6-9, Al Horford) and he can also shoot the three. Plus, dude can pass the ball. If a big take Love, Big Al is likely against a PF and Big Al can take any PF in the league.
Besides, you take the guy who is clearly the best available player and worry about positions later.
2. Mayo is the best-player available.
In honor George Carlin, I say Bullshit. Others (like stop-n-pop and Hollinger) have analyzed this better than me. But to sum up: Mayo is a good/great shooter and a very good defender. But he has the same size issues as Love (a bit short), and he has not shown that he can get to the basket and get to the free throw line. He'll be an upgrade over McCants, sure.
But, Love is the best player available. He's big, he's in shape, he's an excellent shooter and an excellent passer. He's a rare player for his size. It's easier to find guys like Mayo than it is to find guys like Love.
3. Love cannot defend.
Everything I've read suggests that Love will give effort on defense and just as important that he's a smart defender. Mayo will play great defense as well but Love's smarts and effort will make up for some of his athletic deficiencies.
I hope the wolves take Love at #3 and then trade up to take another big that can block shots and defend. I read that this is a good draft for bigs. Maybe we can pick up a guard via free agency. One that can shoot and defend. Guards seem less rare than good bigs.
Good luck Hoiberg and McHale.
I also hope the wolves don't get too cute, draft a player just to trade him, and then get screwed. This is what happened in 2006 with Brandon Roy. We wanted Foye and agreed to trade Roy to Houston for Foye and Luther Head. But Portland stepped in and screwed it up. We just should have taken Foye (or obviously kept Roy). Don't get cute, McHale!
Don't we have enough undersized forwards already? Isn't love just a 3pt shooting Rhino?
Please, someone school me on why Love is so great? He seems like a slow 3 or a short 4 to me?
Efficiency, efficiency, efficiency.
One of the best ways to judge how good any given player is, is to look at his efficiency numbers. What does he do per possession? Per 100 possessions? How many possessions does he end in a favorable manner for his team?
One of the easiest ways to get a good efficiency number is to look at how much time a player spends on the court, how many possessions he ends for his squad and how efficiently he works for his team in said possessions. For instance, OJ Mayo played in 91.1% of his team's minutes last year. During that time, he had a poss% (or usage rate) of 30.8%. This means that he factored in 30.8% of his team's ended possessions during his 91% of his team's minutes on the court. Going even further into his time on the court, Mayo scored 105.2 points per 100 possessions. Think of this like a batting average in baseball.
Cutting to the chase with Mayo, he played in an unusually high % of his team's minutes while having a hand in nearly 1/3rd of their possessions during which he scored 105 points for every 100 times USC had the ball.
Kevin Love played in 73.9% of his team's minutes. During this time he had a hand in 27.7% of his team's possessions while scoring 126.6 pointts per 100 possessions.
While spending dramaticly less of a percentage of time on the court than Mayo, Love scored over 20 points/100 possessions more than OJ. That's an insane difference. Sure, some of it has to do with team performance but no one is going to be calling UCLA an offensive juggernaut.
Going even further, Love averaged .63 FTA for every FGA compared to .28 for Mayo. Love had an eFG of 59.5 compared to Mayo's 52.4. Love turned the ball over 14.9 times/100 possessions compared ot Mayo's 18.8.
In every aspect of his game, Love got things done in an amazginly efficient manner. Rebounds, assists, free throws, etc....he can flat out play. This says nothing about his actual skills: blocking out, rebounding, mid-range shooting, 3 point shooting, high post, passing, outlet passing, etc.
Comparing him to the Rhino is probably a little off; if not being a comparison that belongs in another ball park.
Excellent analysis, yet I am still not convinced.
For this crowd I don't have to shout the defense wins mantra, so how is his defense? I keep thinking to Britt's point that Al is a much better player with a legitimate 5 in the game. Look at how difficult it was for KG during the series when Perkins was out? I don't think that was a coincidence.
I humbly bow to all of this boards members' superior analytical skills and yet I am going to hope the Wolves take Mayo then try to get a good defensive center some other way.
Well, you'll have to ask someone else about the defense question vis-a-vis Love because I don't subscribe to the defense-wins-championship line. The Celts won with an efficient offense just as much as they won with a nice defense. That last game was won with a bit more than d, as were the games in which they scored about 100. If you look at their big stretches during the season, they were scariest when the big 3 were hitting and they were getting 3 pointers from players like House and Posey. The Spurs and Celts win because they have net efficiency that is driven in large part by their offense. However, that's debatable and it doesn't really speak to Love on the Wolves. On that topic....
I view it as an in/out proposition: can a Love and Jefferson front line outproduce the opponents and can they do so in a way that is efficient enough to carry success into the playoffs? I say yes. They would be a solid combo for rebounding (esp offensive), eFG, and fta. That's 3/4th the battle right there. All they have to do is be close to average on d and they'll be fine.
SnP, thanks for these ratings. There is so little in the way of "sabermetric"-type data for basketball--it's far behind baseball in this regard.
I'd be interested to see how a player's efficiency ratings change from college to the professional level. My suspicion would be that the efficiency rating for power forwards and centers are affected to a greater degree by the larger size of NBA opponents than the ratings for guards and small forwards, meaning Love will have a harder time of it in the NBA, but I have no hard data to base this on.
Over at TWolvesBlog a commenter (pants) had an excellent take that Wolves fans have a hard time getting worked up for the draft because they're like a beaten dog who even if he sees the steak on the table, it won't taste so good once the beating commences again. With that in mind, I'm fully preparing for the ultimate beating: a 3 way trade that will land the Wolves Charlie Villanueva, Adam Morrison and the 28th pick (which will be used on Spencer Tollackson), as well as somehow swapping Crunch out for a sponsorship with Matel and Breakdancing Elmo. With that scenario in mind, any beating short of that atrocity will seem like nothing more than freedom tickling and I'll be happy until November.
I almost puked when I read that Adam Morrison rumor the other day. We could get a player as good as Morrison with one of our second rounders, and Villanueva is certainly nothing special either.
Anyways, I read this morning (Chad Ford ESPN) that Miami is leaning heavily towards Mayo or Bayless.
Their "interest" in Bayless could be a smoke screen to try to force the Wolves into a deal. And if this is true, the Wolves could stand pat and let Beasley fall into their laps at #3.
So far McHale has been playing it right, as the Wolves seem to have convinced everyone that they are taking Mayo. Now can he keep himself from doing something stupid at the last minute?
I think there is probably a 1 in 3 chance that the Wolves could land Beasley at #3. So if we remain patient, we get a shot at Beasley and OJ Mayo as a consolation prize. To me, that makes a hell of a lot more sense than trading down to get a lesser player and change (and the change...Morrison, Villanueva...sounds pretty shitty so far).
Again, there is no need to make a deal with Miami. If they want Mayo, they'll take him at #2. Call their bluff on Bayless.
You know, I was just mentioning this elsewhere, but the thing that has really bugged me this year with all the draft talk is the same old tired commentary from places like Tom Powers, Reusssssseeeeee, and most parts of KFAN about how the Wolves' front office are approaching this draft. Tom Powers had an honest-to-god column this morning about how the Wolves shouldn't (over) think about the draft and simply unplug the phone so they don't make any dumb deals. Yeah, that's funny in past years but this year they've worked out more players and traveled more miles and according to Taylor himself, McHale has been told to play along nicely with others. Granted, it's still the Wolves, but these columns could have been written 2 or 3 years ago (and probably were in some cases), as they are so generic in their approach to the Wolves' current situation.
I agree that the Wolves (with some newfound help from Seattle) have played the Miami talk about Mayo correctly. Both teams say they will draft Mayo if available while letting everyone clearly know that their backup (as well as Memphis') is a big man like Lopez or Love. In other words, Miami better just shut up and choose the player they want or work out a favorable 3 way deal with the Wolves to insure that they walk away with their guy. Nobody is talking about how bad the Heat could FUBAR the #2 pick in a consensus 2 player draft. It serves those jokers right for tanking.
At the end of the day, I think the Wolves will make an interesting 3 way deal with Memphis and Miami that will land the Heat Mayo, the Grizz Beasley, and the Wolves (Alexander/Love/Lopez/Gallinari), the rights to Gasol and the 28th pick. If they can get a guarantee from Gasol to come over, they draft the best 3 and then do their best to trade up for CDR/Rush. I don't think anyone would be *too* unhappy with something like this:
Foye/Jaric
(CDR/Rush)/Brewer
(Alexander/Gallinari)/Gomes
Jefferson/Richard
Gasol/Richard
It would be kind of upsetting to see them "pass" on Beasley, but it sure as hell beats missing out on the additional action associated with a 3 way trade that they need to be a part of. They simply can't let Miami and Memphis do a deal on their own. There's too many extra assets that could be had there as well as a fair amount of control to be lost.
Regarding your first paragraph, I read the blurbs about Powers' and Reusse's articles on Twolves Blog and just skipped the full articles. Maybe they should try a new angle besides the pro-sports pessimism. I'm not saying they should turn into homers, but enough already. We get it; this team wasn't good last year. That doesn't mean they haven't made better deals or drafted better recently. Maybe that's too complicated for them to process. Much easier to say the Wolves are awful and will be perpetually awful.
The whole "tired take" part of it is what really bothers me. The Wolves could have equally bad results this year but the way in which they have been going about their business has changed. This is the 1st post-KG draft and you'd think that there would be more of an effort to detail how things are different. There was the one mention in the Strib about how Taylor told McHale he had to listen to others, but that's about it. Again, you can still say the team's FO sucks, but a less generic take would be nice.
I don't get the obsession with trading down. Quality over quantity is the one and only thing anyone should be thinking right now. A bunch of good players does less to improve the Wolves situation than one great player.
As far as getting a superstar to Minnesota, this is the best chance there probably ever will be. SO:
Plan A should be trying to trade up to get Beasley. Offer Brewer and the 3 to Miami along with the Heat first rounder next year. If that doesn't work throw in the Celts first rounder. Beasley and Jefferson would be an unstoppable scoring front court and Miami would never take OJ over Beasley when they know teams like Seattle and Memphis want him. It's going to take and would be worth a lot to get him.
Plan B, stick at three and take Mayo, who is far better than McCants or Foye, either of whom could then be dealt along with the 2nd rounders for a big man.
"Plan B, stick at three and take Mayo, who is far better than McCants or Foye, either of whom could then be dealt along with the 2nd rounders for a big man."
...I think it's debatable whether he's that big of an improvement over Foye and McCants' trade value is probably equal to a warm bowl of jello right now.
I do agree that Beasley is the best shot they'll have with getting a superstar here in the draft and all care (outside of Jefferson) should be thrown out the window to get him aboard.
Mayo is worth more to the Wolves right now as trade bait than he would be with 3 6'4" combo guards and a Gomes/Jefferson/MadDog frontcourt...which is what we're looking at right now.
A top three pick must be used to try to get a star and most observers believe Mayo is the third most-likely all star in the draft. If the Wolves can't get Beasley — the pick has to be Mayo regardless of who else is on the current guard heavy and talent barren roster.
Some think he's over-rated but his one season in college was pretty damn good by any measure other than the stratospheric hype that surrounded him. The one concern with him is height — but as for the "debate" over how much of an improvement Mayo would be over McCants/Foye, I'm not sure how many non-Wolves Kool Aid drinkers would suggest Mayo isn't clearly the most talented. In two years Foye's proved nothing other than that he can execute one (right lane drive) move and is an above average three-point shooter. McCants couldn't even start on one of the worst NBA rosters of the last 10 years and after three years in the league is probably more inconsistent than he was as a rookie.
Mayo had a better college season as a freshman than Foye/McCants had as a senior and junior. He's had to deal with the lime-light since seventh grade and displays a mental toughness than neither Foye or McCants has.
Saying that McCants couldn't even start for the Wolves is a little unfair. The guy was our 2nd leading scorer and had the best +/- numbers of any guys in the regular rotation. No, he didn't start often, but clearly it wasn't because there was better talent in front of him.
No reason to write off McCants or Foye just yet. Pair them with Mayo and we could have a pretty nice 3 guard rotation. See how it works, what have we got to lose? Fans? Respect? A playoff spot? Ha
"Mayo had a better college season as a freshman than Foye/McCants had as a senior and junior."
Ahhhhhhhhh!!!! :)
Foye had a pretty decent final year in school, as did Shaddy.
http://www.canishoopus.com/2008/6/20/555156/guess-the-player
However, 1-and-dones are hard to guess on. Mayo is going to be 21 heading into his 1st nba season so you can take the similar aged years of Foye and Shaddy and use that as a measuring stick as well. Shaddy had a pretty frickin' good junior year. I agree with the mental toughness/limelight aspect, but getting to the larger point, I think there's a pretty solid argument that Mayo isn't the BPA or best fit for the Wolves. I think a guy like Mario Chalmers or CDR and Rush will end up being just as effective at the pro level, especially since they won't be caught in between positions or with teams that have unrealistic expectations for production and stardom.
So Foye put up similar numbers in his fourth year playing in the Big East as Mayo put up a year out of high school in a star-filled Pac Ten while being featured on the cover of SI and being expected to be the best player in the country... I'm not saying he doesn't have similarities to Foye or that he's the best fit for the Wolves, just that he would be the second best player on the Wolves right now and should be the pick. McCants had a great college career but was over-rated for the championship just like Brewer was last year.
"I'm not saying he doesn't have similarities to Foye or that he's the best fit for the Wolves, just that he would be the second best player on the Wolves right now and should be the pick"
...Jim, that's about the quickest way to cut to the bone on any argument against any player the Wolves are considering...even clunkers like Bayless and Gordon. In that sense, you've hit the nail on the head: *whoever* they pick is the 2nd best player on the team.
BTW: The Big East was pretty decent that year.
Come on you know what I'm saying: the Wolves have no business even worrying about who is on the roster right now when they make this pick. That's why your comparisons of Foye and Mayo and McCants are irrelevant, Mayo is just plain better than both.
Why the Wolves would even consider the risk of passing up a consensus third pick like Mayo and watching him become a star somewhere else is beyond me. It would be organizational suicide to repeat the Roy-Foye debacle.
And the last part is where we differ. I think Foye can be a starting guard who can be upwards of 90% of the player that Mayo is while Shaddy can be one hell of a 3rd guard. What could Mayo top out at? 18/4/4? 20/5/4? Foye isn't far from 17/5/5 and he shoots 40% from 3 while getting to the line about the same amount Mayo would. It was clear at the time that Roy had a great deal more potential than Foye. It's not clear that Mayo can run the lead guard and it's even more unclear that he's the consensus 3rd best player in the draft. This is not a Foye/Roy situation where one player's stats jump out at you like Roy's did vs. Foye. If anything, a player like Love has the Roy-esque stats and Mayo plays the part of Foye. Looking further down the draft, a guy like Mario Chalmers could play the role of this year's Rodney Stuckey.
Ending on an agreement, I think that the Wolves have no business worrying about who is on the roster right now when they make this pick...which is exactly why they should draft Love.
Foye & Mayo would make a very solid backcourt. I'd rather take OJ than get overly cute with the selection, but if LA wants him bad enough to give us #7, our future #1, and another pick or player, we'd have to listen. I just don't think the gap between Mayo & 4/5/6/7/8 is big enough (if it's there at all) to justify passing on an opportunity like that.
I've cooled on Mayo a little bit, since the initial hype after the lottery (which was ridiculous, and still is for Clippers' fans) that was so strong. Watching video of him, he's a very skilled player with above-average athleticism. If he plays point guard, I think his potential ceiling would be like Sam Cassell or Gilbert Arenas. Definitely a good player to add, but not a superstar--(some say Arenas is a superstar, I think a ballhogging point guard on an average team is less than that).
Beasley is exceptional, and we would be absolutely insane to trade him for anybody not-named Derrick Rose. He proved for an entire season that he's got a complete offensive game, and when I heard Jay Bilas raving about his passing ability out of double teams, I became completely convinced (if I wasn't already) that he's a lock for All-Star teams. He can play the 3 or the 4, so we could still seek out a true center like Ajinca, Jordan, Ibaka, whoever, later in the draft.
I see where you are coming from. The active vs. passive angle is usually preferred. But in this case, I disagree.
If Miami truly wants Mayo, the Wolves hold the cards. Miami and Memphis cannot do a deal that brings Mayo to Miami without the Wolves involvement. We don't need to engage them, they need to engage us. Translation: there is no action to miss out on if the Wolves decline. We pick ahead of every trading partner the Heat could find.
Here's the way I see it:
(Alexander/Love/Lopez/Gallinari) and change vs. Mayo = wash
Beasley vs.(Alexander/Love/Lopez/Gallinari) and change= big edge Beasley
Beasley vs. Mayo = big edge Beasley
To favor a deal, you'd need to believe that the trade down would yield significantly better assets than Mayo and a chance at Beasley.
Gasol and a 28th pick is not enough to sway me. Although, Kyle Lowry would be a step in the right direction.
I realize that Papa Glen's wallet isn't as large as the guy who allows Kevin Prichard to be so forward, but I'm of the approach that you should simply go get the guy you absolutely want. If it's Beasley, then the Wolves should let nothing short of Jefferson get in the way of them moving up to 2. Brewer, Foye, the Heat's future 1st, their 2nd round pick...it doesn't matter. The guy is the best college player in 20 years and I still can't believe there is talk that he won't go #1.
That being said, realistically, the Wolves aren't going to get rid of 2 of their "cornerstones" in order go get a cornerstone with the quotation marks removed. In that case, this draft then becomes a question of value and roster-filling. If they're not going to move what they can for the best player, and picks 3-10 are, as you say (and I agree with you to a fair extent) a wash, then it's about getting as much as possible in return. A center and a pick is enough for me. On the virtue of height alone, I'd say that Alexander/Love/Lopez/Gallinari is enough of an incentive to take a legit 7 footer and an additional pick over Mayo. If they can get more, that's great, but I think that's a solid deal for everyone involved.
BTW: I think we agree on the basic point that the Heat should work with the Wolves if they want Mayo, but if they really have 2 players (Bayless + Mayo) then they need to get in on the action in order to not get passed up. However, truth be told, I think Riley is bluffing even more with the awful Bayless than he is with Mayo. Jerryd Bayless over Beasley + Mayo? That's batshit insane. I also think the Wovles could interest a team like NYC or the Clippers in Mayo as a back up plan. They're in the best spot in the draft outside of the top 2 and they're playing it right so far. The only thing that worries me is that Taylor has a relapse on draft night and hands the keys back to McHale.
OK, now you are on to something. If Miami can't do a deal, they either pick Beasley or Mayo. If it's Beasley, the Wolves can still select Mayo and trade down for a similar deal. To me this is a much more attractive option because we still retain the chance of getting Beasley at #3. Whereas, any three way deal with Miami ensures that Beasley is gone by the time we pick. I think your "back up" plan should be plan A (assuming the Wolves really don't want Mayo).
OK, I've talked this to death. Bottom line...the Wolves would be stupid to do a deal with Miami. They should wait and see if they can get Beasley at #3, and have some contingency plans for a trade down if they don't see enough value in Mayo.
The last time a six foot whatever combo guard (not a point guard) was taken top 3 is Ben Gordon is 2004. The highest combo/guard besides that is Brandon Roy a #6 in 2006 and Roy is a legitimate 6-5/6-6.
Is Mayo really better than Rodney Stuckey (#15 in 2007)? Sure, maybe Stuckey should have gone higher, but in most drafts, undersized shooting guards (or shooting guards, period) do not get drafted in the top 3.
Why all the hype about Mayo? Maybe teams screwed in past drafts. Heck, Arenas was a second round pick.
If Mayo is the next Arenas, I guess the wolves should just take him. But is Mayo the next Arenas?
I'm pretty solidly in the pro-Mayo camp, though I also wouldn't mind moving down if it meant we pick up a good piece (Kaman for example, though it sounds too good to be true) and don't drop too low.
I truly don't understand why some pundits are saying Mayo doesn't have a position here. Yes, he's a combo guard. Yes, so is Randy Foye. But isn't the strength of combo guards their ability to play more than one position? So why wouldn't you want more than one of these players on your roster? That's the exact type of mismatch that was so trendy in 2004 (thanks Ben Gordon), and now the word "combo" has acquired this negative connotation as in "unable to play either guard position" (thanks Larry Hughes). It turns into a good matchup on both ends of the court, assuming that Mayo lives up to his hype and plays above-average defense.
When we first got the #3 pick, I thought it was a terrible situation, but with Riley's aversion to Beasley, this works quite well. Riley gets to look foolish if he takes Mayo, and gets to look foolish if he trades with anyone not named the Timberwolves, and no, he does not really want Bayless. If Riley really passes on Beasley to get Mayo, we had better be working the phones, because someone is going to pay an arm and a leg for the guy - THEN it's time to talk to Memphis...
That's an interesting question about Mayo and Arenas. I can't find a good stats page for Arenas' last year in college.
From what I read about Mayo, his free throw rate is quite low. I can't imagine that Arenas has a low free throw rate. Arenas is just so quick and I don't read that about Mayo.
One of the 2 big red flags for Mayo (along with a disturbing level of turnovers) is his reliance on long range jumpers for his scoring. It's not just that he doesn't get to the line a lot (which is absolutely something the Wovles need), it's that 40% of his shots are 3s and he shoots 43% on everything else. That's Randy Foye.
PS: The Heat and Grizz would probably swap players like Lowry and Miller in that deal.
Yes. I laugh out loud. It's so funny because it's possible. Unlikely yes, impossible, no.
It seems like the most logical strategy we can take away from all the wolves coverage is that a decent big will be available in the 2nd round. Knowing we get value with our pick there, then shouldn't the focus of the first pick be on anything other than C or PF? I just don't understand why it seems that Love is always mentioned as one of the top two or three candidates for their pick. Jefferson is the only certainty they have and he plays the same position.
I hope they draft Mayo. Or move down for Gallinari. Though it sounds like Mayo won't even have a phone conversation with the Wolves. What do you make of this? Why not talk to the team who most experts predict will draft you? Hoiberg mentions how a sit down interview is so important. I hope they still pick Mayo. We need a star from this draft.
You're right I misspoke. I got mixed up with something I read about Beasley. My subconscious assumed it was Mayo and his "questionable character".
We already interviewed Mayo for about an hour on Saturday after we attended his workout.
Perhaps I'm a little cynical about the draft and about the timberwolves in general, but I look at the 12-13 deep and getting rid of a contract comments and I think the t-wolves are in money saving mode ala Donald Sterling. When the wolves trade down to pick Love, send out a contract, and and save a bunch annually on a guy that will force Jefferson to play the center spot, are we all going to be giddy over the coming season. Heck, we may as well start dreaming of Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet.
I guess it's possible we take Mayo, Bayless or Lopez, but given the last year, and how every move seemed to be to save a few dollars, I think I know what we can expect.
I'm not saying I want the Wolves to take Love, but he'd be playing center. Ten years ago, he'd be a power forward, but now, he fits as a center because no one would expect him to guard Shawn Marion or KG. He might need to prove he can guard strong centers, but he'd be playing both (forward when Jefferson's off the floor).