Easy Does It

You obviously shouldn’t draw too many conclusions based on the first six games of the season, especially since so far it’s been a case of perceptions not exactly measuring up to reality.

Or at least some perceptions. I’ve seen all six games, and without looking closely at the numbers I’d say that, with the exception of the bullpen, the Twins have been pretty disappointing all around; despite which, of course, they’re 3-3.

People have justifiably pointed out the struggles of the team defensively, as they adjust to a new left side of the infield and have had to make do with Matthew LeCroy at first base. LeCroy’s been one of the Twins better hitters so far, but he’s also made all last year’s talk about Justin Morneau’s defensive liabilities seem like so much Chicken Little nonsense. Everything’s relative, I suppose, but it’ll sure be nice to have Morneau back out there on the field.

All in all I think Jason Bartlett’s looked pretty confident, both in the field and at the plate. He made a rookie mistake on a double play ball against Chicago, but otherwise seemed fine. Michael Cuddyer’s been another story at third, and I’m going to guess that some of his bad reads on balls have something to do with adjusting to the Dome’s turf, which still seems to be playing awfully soft and slow. On the positive front, Cuddyer’s demonstrated that he has enough of a cannon to compensate for any number of mistakes in judgement.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Shannon Stewart’s play in left field becomes an issue sooner rather than later. Because most of his deficiencies as a fielder result in his inability to get to balls a decent left fielder should be able to get to, they may not be as glaringly obvious to the average fan as the infield gaffs; but he’s increasingly a liability in left, can’t throw, and puts added pressure on Torii Hunter to get to balls in the gap. There was talk in spring training that now that Stewart’s foot injury was behind him we might see a return of some of the speed that once made him a legitimate threat on the basepaths, but so far I’ve seen no evidence of that.

If you throw out Carlos Silva’s first start and Johan’s dominating performance last night, the team’s starting pitching has been frustrating. Or at least that’s the way it’s seemed. The team ERA is a more than respectable 3.74 and the Twins have given up only 25 runs, third fewest in the league. The bullpen’s ERA of 1.17 (five of the seven relievers have yet to give up a run) pads that number, of course, but if you tossed out the six homeruns that Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse have served up (four of them by Radke) and consider the staff’s overall strikeout to walk ratio (36 Ks/6 BB) the pitching has been pretty much as advertised. The Twins actually have fewer walks than homeruns allowed (six to eight).

The real disappointment so far has been the offense, which should really be no surprise, even though so many of us have inflated hopes for this year’s lineup. You do have to factor in the absence of Morneau in the middle of the order, although it has been an awful long time since the Canadian has shown any flashes of power. Still, when he was in the lineup he was at least getting on base (.333 BA, .385 OBP), which is more than you can say for most of his teammates.

The guys who have done all right so far are almost all at least modest surprises: Bartlett, LeCroy, Luis Rivas, and Jacque Jones. Despite the fact that Hunter leads the team with two homers and eight RBI, he has a miserable .200 OBP. Joe Mauer, who struck out just 14 times in 107 at-bats last year, leads the team in that category so far this year with seven, and he’s looked tentative at the plate in most of his appearances. It’s too Mauer’s credit that he’s a patient hitter and likes to wait for a pitch he can handle, but so far he seems to be guessing wrong much of the time.

Stewart has a .259 OBP at the top of the order, and Cuddyer and Lew Ford have looked helpless.

Still, the Twins have only been outscored 25-to-24, and hapless as they’ve looked on offense they’ve actually out-hit their opponents. And despite a miserable team on base percentage of .308, the Twins pitching has held opposing teams to a ridiculous .269 OBP.

What does any of this mean? Nothing, of course, other than that the Twins are going to have to pick up their production in what looks increasingly like a radically improved Central Division. I think they’ll do that, and I also think they’re in for more of a battle than in years past. With all the hullaballoo and on- and off-the-field distractions during the opening homestand, though, I’m not going to place much stock in the team’s performance so far.

By the end of April, though, by which time they’ll have seen every one of the other teams in the division at least once (and three of them twice), we should have a little bit better idea of what kind of summer we’re in for.