That Hauntingly Familiar Ugly Math

–Ralph’s Barber Shop, Okmulgee, Oklahoma

–Bateman Park, Okmulgee, OK

—On the tube in Ralph’s Barber Shop, Okmulgee, OK: Twins clinch 2004 Central Division title

It shouldn’t be possible for nine hits, seven walks, and a hit batter to add up to four runs. That’s the sort of line the Twins regularly threw up last year when they were scuffling to score runs.

Compare the runners left on base for the White Sox tonight (one) with the number of stranded Twins (ten) and you pretty much have the story of the game. It didn’t help, of course, that Kyle Lohse gave up a couple of two-run homers and a solo shot.

It’s actually more frustrating for me to watch Lohse right now then it was last year, when he was so clearly battling himself and his coaching staff. This year I think we’re seeing a guy who’s doing his damnedest to get with the program and really learn to pitch, but after years of refusing to see himself as anything but a fastball/slider power pitcher, Lohse’s attempts at an on-the-job transformation to a four-pitch guy are probably going to hit some pockets of turbulence in the early going.

Lohse was obviously trying to mix in his curveball and change-up tonight, but you can tell the confidence isn’t quite there with either pitch yet. As Bert Blyleven could tell him (and Carl Everett, for that matter), the curveball can be a very effective pitch, but if you hang one it’s generally going to get mashed. You’ve got to learn to forget those mistakes in a hurry. Late last season, those hanging curveballs that got knocked out of the park made a pretty dark impression on Lohse, and he went through an angry stretch where he was stubbornly resisting Rick Anderson’s attempts to get him to alter the approach that had helped him to win 27 games between 2002-03.

One of the things Anderson talks about a lot is what a challenge it is to get guys who’ve gotten attention since they were in high school for being able to throw ninety miles-an-hour to recognize how effective a 75- to 83-mph offspeed pitch can be. Why should a guy who can throw 93 serve up a 75-mph breaking ball to a major league hitter?

Lohse is learning, it seems to me, and though he’s getting punished for his mistakes you’re not seeing guys just sitting on his fastball and racking up huge innings like we saw so often last year. He still needs to figure out the best situations to throw that offspeed stuff, and to which batters. His book on hitters for the last four years is being essentially re-written series by series, and if he’s going to stick to this new approach and not get frustrated (which so far, anyway, all indications are that he hasn’t), he’s also going to have to recognize that in many ways he’s starting over –or at the very least making some major adjustments and trying to alter the type of pitcher he’s going to be from here on out. The encouraging note so far is that he’s only walked two batters in his first three starts of the year, this after issuing 76 free passes last year. His strikeout totals are also down from 2004, but that’s to be expected as he dicks around with his repertoire.

I still believe Lohse’s going to end up pitching close to 200 innings for the Twins this year, and I just predicted to somebody today that he’ll finish second on the staff with sixteen victories.

During the last homestand Lohse talked about his need to be patient, and I just hope the Twins’ staff will be patient with him in return. At the very least, he continues to have real value to the organization. If some of the arms in Rochester prove to be ready later this summer, Lohse would almost certainly generate trade interest from any number of teams.