On April Fools Day, I convened two of the smartest diamond watchers I know, The Rake’s own Brad Zellar (of Warning Track Power) and veteran Twin Cities journalist David Brauer for a Twins diablog. You can go back and find it in the archives or take my word that it was absolutely the most prescient slab of baseball wisdom delivered this calendar year (you should probably check). Anyway, hyperbole aside, the conversation did go well enough that I am making good on my threat to repeat it. What follows is a three-round hash, written between the afternoons of Monday May 28 and Tuesday May 29.
Britt Robson
What do Tony Batista, Juan Castro, Sidney Ponson, and Ramon Ortiz have in common? As any Twins fan can tell you, they all fall somewhere between “very suspect” and “washed-up” vets upon whom the Twins have unwisely gambled their past two springs. What’s especially concerning about this is that even casual fans foresaw the collapse of this quartet–it was a too-obvious reach on the part of GM Terry Ryan. (Full disclosure: I was so infatuated with Ryan’s acumen for judging talent that I was one of the precious few either defending his choices or suspending judgment on that hapless quartet the past two preseasons.)
I suppose the counter-argument is “no harm, no foul,” in that Ryan’s Twins won the division last year and appear to be rounding into shape in time to contend this season. But that’s twice the club has pissed away two months before acknowledging what most everyone could have predicted.
Is this simply to save money? The longer the Sloweys and Garzas of the world stay on the farm, the longer they wait for arbitration and free agency. Would Ryan, Pohlad and company be so cynical as to stagger their tenures so that if, say, Santana, prices himself out of the market they will have other aces-in-waiting for two or three years rather than one or two? And, if the cheap vets don’t pan out early and they stock from the farm system, it quells talk of going out and getting a bat or an arm for the pennant race in midseason. To choose two examples: Is Craig Wilson really so washed up that this ballclub shouldn’t take a chance on him? Seems to me he’s an ideal American League DH. I guess the fact that no one else has bitten on his services indicates his ability fell off the table–he had 29 homers in ’04 and is only 30. Second, with the Reds starters getting regally hammered–the Pirates, of all teams, put away all three games in the first inning over the weekend–and with ex-Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky now running the Reds, couldn’t we dangle Scott Baker or Carlos Silva for Edwin Encarnacion, who they actually sent to the minors last month, or Ryan Freel? EE is apparently a lousy fielder, but there’s no reason he could fill some kind of 3B/DH platoon with Jeff Cirillo and let Nick Punto become the super utility man he was born to be. Freel is in an even better fit, a guy who can play anywhere but most often at 3B and CF, a pair of holes for this ballclub if they don’t sign Torii Hunter at the end of this season. (Because if you’re a minor league stat reader, you know Denard Spann is a loooong way from ready.)
A few other passing comments before I pass the baton to you two. Is Torii Hunter playing himself into a hometown discounted $40-45 million deal over the next three years? More 20/20 hindsight, but shouldn’t the Twins have locked up the MVP before the season started and he started proving that he’s only getting started on a string of quality seasons? Should the Twins think about moving Mauer to third and finding someone to platoon with Redmond, a pretty damn good catcher in his own right. Mauer’s height (big catchers don’t last), injury history and upside at the plate all make such a move at least worth considering. And is it time to call Jason Kubel a bust? (I think he is.)
Don’t let these subjects limit you. If you’ve got something else on your mind, let it fly….
David Brauer
As the originator of the “wait to call up and delay arbitration year argument,” I’m willing to cut the Twins a bit of slack…at least on Garza. Sounds like we have a bit of a “ten-cent head” problem (see: Kubel, Jason) with Matt–if he is not listening to Rochester about mixing pitches, he deserves the delay. (As Crash Davis once said, “Don’t think, meat.”)
Funny you should mention Krivsky: the Reds aren’t exactly thriving, are they? (As of this writing, they’re 19-33 and last in the Worst Division in Baseball. Also by the way, Zach Ward, the pitcher the Twins got for Lohse, is pitching at Ft. Myers and his record is identical to Lohse’s–2-6–though Ward has a 2.72 ERA.) One of the few correct predictions I made earlier this year was that of Silva, Ortiz and Ponson, one would work out–not a dangerous prediction, mind you, but even with Silva’s 4.22 ERA, I’ll notch it in pencil. I think with such uncertain starters, we’d be foolish to give up on Silva or Baker at this point, and Krivsky is unlikely to take our sloppy seconds; last year, he was in a pennant race; this year, not so much. If you figure on Garza, Slowey and Baker, two will work out, you still need Silva to contend, I think–the division is just that tough, and the sluggers Britt mentions are too one-dimensional or non-slugger enough for me to wait. (By the way, Freel was knocked unconscious today–not hurt seriously, but we’ll need concussion specialists to peer at those retinas.)
Sadly for me, Souhan stole my proposed line-up from here on out: Castillo, Mauer in the two hole, Cuddy, MVP, Hunter. L-R-L-R 2-through-5, and concentrate the pain (both for the other team at the top of the order and us at the bottom). It sucks that Kubel has been so useless at the plate–though his glove is coming on–-but I’ve always believed in getting the best hitters the most at-bats, and DH, Kubel (or perhaps Tyner), Punto, Bartlett should be at the bottom. (Punto and Bartlett can flip.)
Had you asked back in March, I would’ve said “Adios, Torii” with a heavy heart. With a glint of steel in my eye, I still feel that way now. He’s clearly a top-tier player, and will command much more than a three-year deal. (Watching Damon, you don’t think the Yanks will offer five?) I happen to feel the team’s top priorities are Santana and Morneau, and it will take every bit of coin to re-up them. I believe 32-year-old Torii will be increasingly injury-prone, exactly the sort of player the BoSox or Yanks can take a chance on, but we can’t. Santana could be the A-Rod of pitchers (financially, I mean), though we should discuss that ERA–I’m not sure what’s up. Lots of FA outfielders next year, though it’s silly to resist market price for the best guy and have to go bidding for his inferior. Would Santana re-sign if the ERA-reducing Hunter is gone?
I of course hope the Twins either contend to the end or fall out hard so as to trade Torii for something. I’m fine if this is a developmental year…if you look at the starting fielders, sans Hunter and Castillo, this is still a young club, and the starters will be equally green (even Johan is only 28).
While I was more or less right about Rincon’s submergence (opponents’ OPS is a hefty .737 this year, the third consecutive rise, up from .528 in ’04 and .575 in ’05, aka the Juice Years) I do have to doff my size-7 to Mr. Robson with his insistence that Cleveland was the team to beat. I never thought I’d see an AL Saves leader (Borowski) with an 6.75 ERA, but I’m obviously seeing the trees, not the forest. Oh, and even though Grady Sizemore looked like a turd for a few weeks back, his OPS stands at .858 (off last year’s pace by a little) and he’s hitting lefties and righties equally well. I wouldn’t trade him for the MVP, though (.954 OPS and rising).
Brad Zellar
The Twins already have a fair amount of money invested in Ortiz and
Silva–something like $7.5 million dollars–so I don’t quite
understand the whole economics angle as it applies to Garza et al. It
just seems like a ridiculous gamble at this point. If the guy turns
out to be good enough to justify a bank-breaking arbitration figure
down the line, well, shit, good for the Twins.
At this point–precisely *because* of guys like Batista, Ponson, and
Ortiz–I’m against the team going out and trying to snag some
reclamation project from another club. The Twins are good at finding
and developing talent, but, with the exception of the occasional blip
in the bullpen, they haven’t had a particularly good track record with
nurturing comebacks or resurrecting careers. Somewhere down the line
–maybe even later this year, if they fall way out of contention–
it’s possible they’ll have to trade away some of those young arms for
some offensive prospects, but I don’t think that time is now.
Right now, and as we go forward, I think they have to worry about
shoring up that bullpen and finding some serviceable warm bodies to
eat up innings, and the obvious solution (given Ortiz’s salary and
early success) is exactly what they’re apparently going to do: bring
up Slowey and toss Ortiz to the bullpen to see if he can get some work
in. If Silva slips again, I say push him to the pen as well and bring
up Garza. The scuttlebutt about Garza quibbling about pitch selection
in Rochester is much ado about nothing, I imagine. He was more than
solid in his last outing, and if he’s struggling with pitch selection
it seem to make more sense to have him up here working with the
coaching staff and watching guys like Santana pitch.
Like David I was agnostic about the Twins picking up Hunter’s option
this year. I’m not going to gripe if he plays so well the team can no
longer afford him. Somebody almost certainly is going to throw
ridiculous dollars in his direction, and I don’t know if the Twins can
or should try to play at those prices, whether Denard Spann is ready
or not. Not that I have any other ideas, of course, but I’d love to
see Terry Ryan be more active in making creative trades, and I still
very much trust his judgment when it comes to young, unproven players.
The problem is that he falls in love with his own so much that he can
never seem to part with them.
I still think Cleveland’s bullpen is going to bring the Indians a good
deal of grief, although I’m willing to chalk that up to wishful
thinking. And I still wouldn’t trade Morneau for Sizemore, although
with the Hunter situation it would be mighty, mighty tempting.
Also, I have to stress this: with all the injuries I really do believe
the big concern right now is the bullpen, which has been getting worn
out. The bottom line on Rincon is that he’s more or less been getting
the job done, but it’s unlikely that he can just swap places with
Neshek or Guerrier and gobble up middle innings. He may well be the
next guy to go down with a bum arm; the early warning signs are all
there.
And I don’t agree that it’s time to give up on Kubel. The guy has come
a long ways from that horrific injury, and at this point he sort of
reminds me of where Cuddyer was at a few years ago. If the Twins are
really interested in finding out whether or not he’s the real deal
they need to throw him out there every day.
Oh, and this: I’ve been obsessing about the batting order all season,
and went into it yesterday on my blog. It seems both a shame and a sort of unfortunate recognition of the guy’s talents to suggest that Mauer should be batting second. He may be a three hitter somewhere down the line, but he’s not at the moment. And I also say screw the conventional wisdom (lefty-righty) and stack Mauer and Morneau back-to-back, and follow them with Cuddyer and Hunter. I just think it’s huge to get Morneau to the plate every day in the first inning, especially if Castillo and Mauer are going to be on the basepaths roughly 40% of the time.
Britt Robson
As always with you guys, a feast of food for thought and a chance for some arguments with smart people.
This actually is a continuation of our preseason roundtable, where, unlike you two, I was more concerned about the offense than the pitching. Well, the Twins are currently 4th in the AL in ERA and tied for 7th in runs scored. Help is on the way in both places–Mauer is coming back and there’s Garza and Slowey in the minors–but even after the injurious trifecta of Crain, Reyes, and Perkins, and acknowledging the fact that the Twins’ ERA is currently its highest since 2003, I still see this squad falling short because of bats, not arms. Ever since the perpetually lamentable Dick Such was finally given his walking papers, the Twins have done a great job stitching together middle relief. Yeah, I’ll admit I hadn’t heard of any of
the three guys they brought up to replace the injured wings, but after going to the extra-inning loss to the Blue Jays over the weekend, I’d have to say that both Cali and Miller looked fine (DePaulo isn’t ready, walking the only two batters he faced after yielding six to Texas in one inning previously), and they’ve got another lefty, Ricky Barrett, putting up good numbers for
Rochester in Triple-A. Bottom line, Guerrier and Neshek had both shown enough for promotion before the injuries. These other guys, plus Ortiz in middle relief, can fill in until Reyes and Perkins return.
That’s a hell of a lot easier to patch than figuring out how the Twins get better on offense. Rondell White? Kubel? Are you confident that Mauer stays healthy the rest of the year when he comes back on Friday? (And I repeat, should he remain behind the plate?) Ryan needs to be a little more proactive in bolstering his offense. What’s
the harm in giving Craig Wilson a look? Is that really a bigger gamble than the ones he took on Ponson or Batista? And if not Wilson, one would think a right-handed hitter with a better potential OPS than Jeff Cirillo or Jason Tyner wouldn’t be that hard to come by. I’m willing to say that Jason Kubel will never be the hitter Michael Cuddyer is; just watching them both at similar points in their careers, Kubel seems more Terry Tiffee than Cuddyer to me. Shit, Michael Restovich looked better than Kubel and he’s a Triple-A
hitter. And Kubel bats left, something this team does not need.
As for the two of you and Souhan, let me stipulate that the Mauer batting second idea was to my knowledge first broached by one of my smart readers, Moroni, in the comments to our first Twins diablog. I quote: “To me the lineup should be shuffled. Mauer is the prototypical two hitter, and lacks power for the three spot. Why have one of your three worst hitters (Punto) take a top spot in the batting order and have a 30HR hitter batting 6th?” This was said on April 2 (and I immediately agreed with him and applauded
him for his wisdom).
The question is, how much more is Morneau worth now than he was two months ago when they were trying to land him with Mauer-like terms?
I’ll end my round this time by agreeing with you both that Santana at
$20-$22 million per year is a better value than Hunter at $13-$15 million a year. But can Santana be had for even that price? I’m guessing the Twins don’t sign either one, cross their fingers on Liriano, and hope that those incredible scouts keep producing the killer dope that has kept this team so likeable for the past five years.
David Brauer
Couple of clarifications:
1. Brad, I wasn’t suggesting giving up on Kubel; he’s just looked like shit at the plate. Britt; I think he shows more authority when he whacks the ball than Tiffee; not disagreeing with you here, since you seems to put him between Cuddy and Tiffee. But that said, Kubel’s OPS is down from ’06, which was down from ’05. My major point is he’s not the answer this year. I still wouldn’t trade young pitching at AA or above, so I guess we go to war with the offense we have. Don’t know much about Craig Wilson, but his OPS–a quite decent .817 last year–makes him worth exploring.
2. Arbitration. It’s true Ortiz and Silva cost $7.3 million this year, but it’s still economical, even at that price, to forestall a year of arbitration–and more importantly, free agency–for one or two players. (I agree with Brad it’s a nice problem to have.) Think of how salaries have escalated, project that cost inflation to the future, and then you realize that extra season of non-arb (instead of arb) and then arb (instead of free agency) can easily save multiple millions. There’s also the salutary effect of keeping a couple of guys in the minors to make sure the spring training lessons hold before climbing into the real foxhole.
Britt, I was at the same Saturday game as you and Cali looked wild and
outside; Miller was the only one that left me feeling good but it’s a small sample size.
Mauer is a hell of a catcher, of course, and I’m not sure if catching is why he’s hurt so much. Me and my pal had a good discussion about whether a 6-5 guy would be a good third baseman. He questioned Mauer’s range–I said it’s a gun position and Mauer’s got that. It would be a shame to lose his smarts behind the plate, though Redmond deserves (but possibly cannot physically withstand) more time behind the plate, especially if we do this next year. Heinz does not appear to the answer. Is it easier to find an OPS-hitting third baseman or a sturdy replacement catcher? I kinda think the latter.
The great risk is losing Santana AND Hunter. The Twins wouldn’t have won four of five divisions by signing a guy like Hunter to the four- or five-year deal he will command. Then again, they might’ve won the World Series (and then quickly fallen on hard times) if they had gone after a similar caliber player one of those contending seasons. But back to reality. Santana: eight years, $200 million. If he signs, he’d be as old at the end of the deal as Hunter would be if we signed him for four.
Brad Zellar
I agree that offense is a bigger concern than the pitching. That’s
pretty much been the consistent thread throughout this string of
successful seasons. The Twins were winning the Central before the
emergence of Morneau and Cuddyer, before Luis Castillo came along, and
before Hunter’s (apparent) late maturation as a hitter. They won with
Jacque Jones batting leadoff, Cristian Guzman second, and Doug fucking
Mientkiewicz hitting third.
Granted, that was an entirely different Central Division, but even as
currently configured this lineup looks like the 1927 Yankees in
comparison with some of those teams. Yes, they’re tied for seventh in
the AL in runs scored, but this is also a team that scuffled to score
runs during its early slide. I don’t think there’s any harm in giving
*anybody* a look, but I just wouldn’t expect guys like Encarnacion,
Freel, or Wilson to be answers to any serious questions about the
offense. We may be stuck with Rondell White.
And for better or worse I also think they’re stuck with the piranhas,
and have to hope that those guys can step it up from time to time (as
they did on Monday against the White Sox) and take a little of the
pressure off the middle of the order.
You gotta figure that with the new stadium hoopla the team’s front
office is going to take a few deep breaths and fork over the cash to
lock up Santana and Morneau. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to
sign Hunter to a longterm contract–will he stay or will he go has
been a persistent theme over the last several seasons–but they
haven’t done so, and I suppose they, like everybody else, were waiting
for him to be a consistent run producer, and had concluded that it
wasn’t in the cards. You know damn well he’s going to hit a rough
patch–the guy has always been streaky–and he’s also been
increasingly injury prone in the last couple years. If he stays
healthy and continues to put up big numbers I’m going to wager that
they’ll think long and hard about making a play for him, if only to
leverage public opinion as they look ahead to the new ballpark. I’m
still not sure that would be such a good idea, but with so few
offensive replacement parts in their system they may feel the
pressure.
It’s going to be interesting to see how Mauer responds when he comes
back. You certainly have to be concerned when such a young (and big)
catcher misses chunks of time with leg injuries so early in his
career. Eventually you have to figure they’ll move him from behind the
plate, but that’ll be a decision for somewhere down the line, although
it may come sooner than the team would like.
Britt Robson
Okay, prediction time. Here are my questions: Where will the Twins finish? Who is the biggest goat between now and October? The most reliable performer? And the most unlikely savior who nevertheless comes through?
I’ll take them in reverse order. Against all odds, I say Jason Bartlett has a whale of a second half in both the field and the plate. Yes, I know he wore down last year. And yes, I know he doesn’t profile as a quality SS that way. That’s why he’s an unlikely savior. More predictably, Pat Neshek will be the new Rincon/Crain, a reliable 8th inning guy who Gardy will increasingly rely on for two innings because he can handle the work and is just that good.
For most reliable performer, I’m going with Neshek and Cuddyer, in
that order. Morneau will have a great season but experience a slump at a very bad time–down the stretch and/or in a series versus AL Central rivals. (There are no losers in a Morneau for Sizemore trade, but I’d still rather have the fleet, five-tool centerfielder.)
Santana will be mostly marvelous, but a titch less reliable than the previous lights out summers.
Goats that don’t count: Kubel and White. They’re already there, and it isn’t going to get that much better. I’m predicting the goat to be a tie between Mauer and Castillo, both for reasons of injuries, which will plague the Twins starting lineup for the rest of the season. Consequently, the Twins will be in a dogfight with the White Sox for third place behind Cleveland and Detroit, respectively. The Tribe’s bullpen is fine, folks, with Betancourt reliable, Mastny gaining experience and Borowski better than his numbers indicate (two horrible outings account for that high ERA. Check out his save percentage–I think he’s 17 for 19 or something like that–for his true performance value) and the rotation bolstered enough by Westbrook’s return to keep the pen from burning out.
As always, thanks for your time and wisdom. Let’s do it again on the 4th of July.
David Brauer
At this point, I like the Twins third. I stick with Detroit as the division winner.
Biggest goat: Ford. Not a vital cog, but this is the place I have to stick my “Why is Lew Ford even in the majors anymore?” gripe. No upside, everything else is slipping (OPS under .600 last year, under .500 this year, mediocre at best outfielder). Among the regulars, I’ll take a flier on Nathan. More hits than innings pitched and several other troubling trends. Not a sure thing but a good longshot.
Most reliable: I’d love to pick Castillo; you get exactly the same good thing every time–uncanny for a position player. But health is an issue. I’ll take Redmond.
Unlikely savior: Kubel, if he does a Cuddy on us second half.
Brad Zellar
Neshek already *is* the new Crain/Rincon. And he already has more
intensity and pitching intelligence than either of them. I worry a
little bit about him wearing down, but I love his zeal and attention
to detail, and he really is a first-rate character and a great story.
And I agree with Britt about Bartlett. I think they guy is just
getting healthy, and he seems to be regaining some of his swagger. At
the very least I don’t think he’s anybody the Twins need to worry
about. I also like Bonser’s chances to surprise. He’s a battler, and
clearly has a pretty fierce desire to get better, so it wouldn’t stun
me much if his learning curve isn’t as steep as, say, Baker’s.
I’ll also go with Cuddyer as the most reliable performer. He’s still
not drawing a ton of walks, but his pitch selection, ability to work
the count, and plate coverage just gets better and better (did you see
the Contreras pitch he looped for an rbi single on Monday? Great at
bat). And Morneau, I believe, is going to have a monster year. I expect he’ll only get better with Mauer back in the lineup.
If the season runs aground in the second half I expect it’s going to
be due to the collective collapse of the piranhas, and is going to
make that whole marketing gambit look foolish. I also think teams are
eventually going to learn to pitch around Hunter, or at least to pitch
him more carefully. I continue to be astonished by how many hittable
pitches he’s seeing, and can’t understand *why*.
I’m a little bit reluctant to make any predictions at this point;
that’s a cop-out, I know, but I’d like to see how the Twins respond
after Mauer comes back, and as the bullpen sorts itself out over the
next couple weeks. And I’m eager to have a look at Slowey. I’m still
going to cling to my belief (an annual delusion, actually) that this
team can hold its own the rest of the way. And I still believe that
both Detroit and Cleveland are going to fall off and let the Twins
back into the race. I’m guessing the wild card is going to again come
out of the Central, and I like the Twins’ chances.
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