* Quick prediction before it’s too late: Boof Bonser ends his abysmal losing streak tonight in Baltimore against the O’s (weather permitting).
* How sad is it to see the Strib continue to list the Twins in their “Wild Card Race” box between the standings and the probable starters? This morning, it showed the hometown nine tied with two other .500 teams at nine games out with 36 left to play, behind three other teams, who are, of course, behind the three division leaders in the playoff chase. Got that? In terms of playoff viability, the Twins are better off than five AL clubs, tied with two others, and behind six, with four ultimately earning a chance to play in the postseason. Put simply, they are dead. Dead. DEAD. I hope to conduct the autopsy with Brad Zellar and David Brauer in another roundtable around Labor Day, but until then, one quick whine: Why didn’t Terry Ryan deal Torii Hunter two months ago, when he would have fetched a quality prospect for 2008 or 09 batting order that right now looks mighty thin?
* On the bright side, the Twins have a bevy of promising young arms, and perhaps an entertaining parlor game for a diehard Twins fan is to rank them in order of how you perceive their value over the next five years. Here’s my list, including only those who have spent enough time in the bigs to create a viable impression.
1. Matt Garza
2. Glen Perkins
3. Boof Bonser
4. Francisco Liriano
5. Kevin Slowey
6. Scott Baker
I imagine most fans would have Liriano much higher, but the whip-snap motion he throws with now puts enormous torque on that elbow and shoulder and I don’t think he can last without a major overhaul in his delivery. Likewise, Bonser is probably higher than most would put him, especially after his dreadful past ten weeks, but there is something about his makeup that makes me intuitively think he’s going to be fine, as in a middle-rotation guy, for quite a while. And Perkins is a sleeper, a lefty with loads of confidence. Yeah, I know he’s been dinged too, but I don’t see the windup as being an accident waiting to happen the way it is with Liriano. I don’t have a good reason for dumping on Scott Baker, other than he just doesn’t look like he has good stuff to me, and is consequently prone to the home run ball. Now Baker has been brilliant more than once this season, and this after last year’s abomination. I’d love to be proven wrong about him, because from the outside looking in, he seems like a competitor and a stand-up guy, the kind of pitcher teammates are pulling for. Anyway, let’s hear your half-dozen.
* The Tribe beat the Tigers in the rubber game of their big Central Division series this afternoon and the good news in Cleveland is that Jake Westbrook pitched another gem, locking up with Nate Robertson in a scoreless duel over nine innings before Cleveland took it, 3-1 in 10, on a two-run single by perpetual utility man Chris Gomez (!); this after another late season pickup, Kenny Lofton, knocked in the game’s first run. Bottom line, with C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona and now Westbrook all wheeling, Cleveland has a playoff rotation to rival the Red Sox trio of Beckett-Dice K-Schilling, whereas the Angels can only go two-deep reliably (Lackey-Escobar). The Wild Card, in more ways than one, is the Yankees, who should lead with Wang as their ace and then have a guy, Andy Pettite, who has won them a bunch of games in the postseason, followed by Clemens and/or Mussina, with the ultratalented Phil Hughes as an intriguing long reliever should one of the starters spit the bit and Torre needs a stopgap while his bashers eclipse the deficit.
* And yes, I think the hated Yankees are going to be the Wild Card out of the AL. Seattle has been a fun story, currently own a two-game lead, and are playing like they have nothing to lose. Once they realize they do, in fact, have a playoff spot to lose, can they keep their composure. Up until now, they have been extremely lucky, going 71-53 despite outscoring their opponents by a mere 624-603, due mostly to timely hitting from a balanced order (among the starting lineup, DH Jose Vidro is last with a respectable 49 rbis, four ahead of Kubel and three behind Mauer) and a great bullpen led by closer JJ Putz. But Putz has shown signs of fatigue and I still suspect that good pitching can throttle everyone but Ichiro in this lineup. Of course Seattle could also be kindred spirits to the 1987 Twins, and win it all on sheer luck and gumption. I’d love to see it.
In the National League, there’s a glorious clusterfuck of the sort that should make Bud Selig wet his pants. Only the Mets seem to be a sure thing, and six teams are within 3 and half games of either the division lead or the wild card berth, not counting the three division leaders. That’s more than half the NL franchises with legitimate hopes for the postseason on the weekend before Labor Day. I’ve been pulling for the Brewers and D-backs, two squads loaded with burgeoning young talent, all season, and Arizona currently owns a 3 and half game lead on the Padres. As of now, I think San Diego’s superior pitching pulls out a third straight division crown, leaving Arizona to battle it out with Atlanta and the Dodgers for the wild card. The Phillies suffered a huge loss with their only solid starter, Cole Hamels hitting the DL (a bigger blow than the Pads’ Chris Young likewise going down, because SD has superior depth and a more forgiving ballpark). Milwaukee? Hard to see how they stay with the Cubs, who have better pitching and a superior starting lineup. And the slapstick pennant race has given the snakebitten Cardinals enough oxygen that the old vets might stitch it together to surmount the Cubbies, the Cubs being the Cubs and all.
* Last, and probably least, isn’t it time for all the haters to give it up for Carlos Silva, the much, much, much derided Twins starter who has a decent shot at eating up 200 innings by season’s end? Joe Christensen said as much in today’s paper, another good piece following on his article last Sunday on the silver lining of the Twins pitching prospects getting seasoning this year. It almost makes up for his tireless advocacy to re-sign Torii Hunter. Of course in that he is hardly alone, with Jimmy Souhan being the biggest Hunter booster. If I had a ballot, I’d vote Hunter the Twins MVP for 2007. But that doesn’t mean I want to see the organization paying him $12 to $18 million, minimum, four years from now.
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