Fresh off bad predictions in both league championship series (hat tip to Brad Zellar over at Warning Track Power who called both right), I’m not going to be cute or even especially original in calling the BoSox winners in six games or less. Here are the top two reasons why.
* Patient hitters
This was one of the few things I did get right about the Cleveland-Boston series. The ability of Red Sox hitters to wait for Fausto Carmona and CC Sabathia to consistently throw tough strikes–and the inability of the dual aces to do so–was the single biggest factor in the Red Sox triumph. There isn’t a team in baseball with a string of batting eyes connected to dangerous bats that ranks with the Youkilis-Ortiz-Manny-Lowell quartet. They played ropeadope with CC and Fausto and watched the pair wear themselves out and finally concede hittable pitches.
The most amazing thing about the Colorado Rockies unbelieveable 21-1 record the past month has been the success of their starting rotation behind ace Jeff Francis. But Rox manager Clint Hurdle (who with that name should be a member of Sgt. Fury and his Howling Commandos) knew he couldn’t get away with *two* rooks in the rotation facing these Red Sox, and thus activated opening day starter Aaron Cook to go in Game Four. Yes, Cook has immaculate control, walking just 15 hitters in 166 innings this year and less than 60 in more than 700 innings over the course of his career. But Cook hasn’t pitched in a real game since August 10. He’ll be rusty. And the Sox will be ready for him. Meanwhile, Game Two starter Ubado Jimenez is a good-looking rookie, but walked 37 in 82 innings during the regular season and another 8 in just 11 innings during the postseason. Think he’ll get through the Sox Murderer’s Row more than twice in any game he pitches? Me neither.
* Colorado’s Long Layoff
The last thing a team in the middle of a don’t-pinch-me run wants to do is remain inactive for more than a week, but that’s what happened when the Rox swept Arizona and Boston needed the full 7 to dispose of Cleveland. Throw in the home field and postseason experience advantages enjoyed by the Sox and there will be enormous pressure facing Colorado during the first two games at Fenway.
Of course if Colorado wins one or both–meaning if Francis can topple Josh Beckett and/or Ubado can reign in the strike zone without damage in the second tilt–the long layoff thing, and the experience thing, and the home field advantage thing all go out the window. If Colorado wins two, even the fabled grit of the Red Sox won’t recover. If Colorado splits the first two, this will be a hell of a series. And if you want to root for the Rockies, here are a couple of silver linings.
No DH in Colorado. That means either Ortiz or Youkilis or Lowell must sit. Yup, the consensus best clutch hitter in the game, a guy who had a 1.500+ OPS in the ALCS, or the team leader in rbis. Personally, I’d send Youk back to his old spot at third, play Ortiz at first, and hope that the slight drop in D translated into continued magnificence for the pair at the plate. On the other hand, you could argue that there is no better pinch hitter than Youk, the best of the great batting eyes, in a tight game with runners on base. And that gives you the upgrade of Lowell at third. Either way, I don’t think you can sit Ortiz, even against the lefty Francis. But I can envision Ortiz hitting a double late in 7th, 8th or 9th of a close tilt, getting Ellersby or Crisp as a pinch runner, and throwing Youk at first for the rest of the game.
Also, don’t underestimate the Rockies hitters versus the Sox hurlers. I made this mistake before, proclaiming Brandon Webb would tame them. Beckett is a money pitcher, but Curt Schilling is getting by on guile, not a good idea facing the likes of Tulowitzki/Holliday/Atkins/Helton and Brad Hawpe, who absolutely destroys right-handed pitching. Furthermore, can Dice-K pitch at Coors? Will the thin air hurt Okajima’s overhand breaking balls and changes of speeds?
Bottom line, great pitching trumps great hitting, and that is spelled Beckett. And patient hitters can eat up good-stuff pitchers who either are a tad wild (Jimenez) or rusty (Cook). That and the pinched Rockies waking up to the fact that they’re in a World Series is why I am going with Boston.
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