The Rake Magazine

Author: Britt Robson

  • Spurs Scrabble for Survival

    AP Photo/Matt Slocum

    It occurs to me that the best way to recap the first three games of the Spurs-Lakers series is to point out all the places I was wrong. There are plenty of examples so let’s get to it.

    * A high scoring series

    When I looked over the various matchups between San Antonio and LA, I foresaw a lot of offense. But last night’s combined 187 points has been the most prolific game of the three. Part of this is because the series has been played at a pace more to SA’s liking, which spells trouble for their current one-game deficit. Part of it is because both teams are missing more open looks than is customary (and it is different people different nights, although Odom and Parker have not been able to exploit what I perceived as their mismatches), a likely sign of fatigue and/or pressure. But the bulk of it is simply great defense, particularly by the Lakers in their Game Two blowout. I have never seen Parker’s penetration stymied so effectively, not only by Derek Fisher but by the bigs doubling and switching up coverages on the pick and roll.

    * A loooong series for Derek Fisher

    Fisher has not shone in Games One and Three, but he also hasn’t been toasted by Parker the way I thought it would happen. Again, the Lakers’ superb team D had a lot to do with that in Game Two, but Fisher’s foot speed has been better than I expected, and the vast improvement by Jordan Farmar, who has found his confidence again, is getting him more rest. If he and Farmar can cut the distance in point guard production between the two teams, the Lakers are in good shape.

    * Kobe would toast Bowen and Udoka equally

    Maybe it is just a prejudice against gritty, slow-footed vets, because I also underestimated Bruce Bowen’s value in this series, and overestimated how much Udoka could spell him. Doug Collins pointed out last night that Kobe salivates over getting Udoka as his matchup, and even as he spoke, Pops was getting Bowen up to guard the MVP. I think Bowen slipped a bit on defense during the regular season, and wasn’t that effective in either of the first two rounds. But his ability to slow Kobe down a titch and make him work for points and dimes has given San Antonio hope. Given Kobe’s maturity as a distributor, it is crucial that the double teams aren’t automatic and predictable. Bowen’s inexorable hustle has made that possible–and he’s even hit a few of those patented corner treys of his.

    * The Spurs would trade off nights from Ginobili for off nights from Odom

    Wrong again. Ginobili’s value to his team was borne out again last night–his catalytic role on the Spurs is vastly greater than Odom’s versatile and important, but not crucial, contributions to the Lakers, where he remains a distinct third option. That said, if Odom does start to get his act together, San Antonio is in trouble. What is frustrating for him is that he’s missing makeable shots.

    But back to Ginobili for a minute. First of all, the guy comes up big at the most important moments, giving San Antonio someone akin to a poor man’s Kobe. That’s huge. The fact that neither Detroit nor Boston boasts an equivalent presence (do you still believe Billups is Mr. Big Shot? and who on the Celtics side–Paul Pierce?) is one of many reasons why the trophy will likely be held aloft by a Western Conference team in about two weeks.

    But if you are looking for a reason why the Spurs are still in this series–and are a 18-minute collapse away from being up 2-1, check out how well Tim Duncan and the trio of Oberto-Thomas-Horry have defended Pau Gasol and Odom. Now Odom’s problems are becoming well documented–he’s getting ripped by most of the Laker media, with some justification. After shooting well over 50% in the first two rounds, he’s shot 12-33 in the three games thus far, or barely over 36%, this despite the fact that the Spurs don’t have a natural counter for his size and quickness. But Gasol’s underachievement has arguably been just as profound. He also was much better than 50% for the playoffs coming into the Spurs series, and the dip to 46.5% (20-43 FG) is exacerbated by the facts that his shot selection has been generally solid–he’s missing makeable attempts–and that he has only gotten to the free throw line 5 times in the three games, after shooting 59 FTA in the previous 10 playoff games. He’s also grabbing two fewer rebounds per game, his assists rate has been cut in half, and his defense on Duncan has been, as expected, inconsistent. These dips bear watching as Gasol continues much deeper into the postseason than he has ever been before.

    Before we look at the Spurs side of the ledger, I want to point out something about Jordan Farmar and Sashia Vujacic, who provided such a great lift off the bench in Games One and Two, but much less so last night: They’ve both been gunning fools. Give Farmar credit for being LA’s third-leading scorer (10.7 ppg) in this series despite averaging only 20.7 mpg, a testament to his gaudy 11-21 FG shooting. But Farmar, the backup point guard, has zero assists in 62 minutes. Even on a team where Kobe Bryant justifiably hogs the ball and which features the triangle offense that reduces the importance of a point guard, you’d think Farmar would have dropped at least one dime. Maybe there’s a connection between the low shooting percentages of Gasol and Odom and the jack-it-up philosophy of Farmar and Vujacic, who rank 8th and 7th, respectively, in assists-per-minutes played among the nine Lakers who logged double digit minutes of court time thus far in the series (Vlad Rad is last).

    By contrast, little used Brent Barry came off the bench last night and delivered four assists in 21 and a half minutes without a turnover, chipped in a pair of treys and was plus +11. Properly derided for his shooting, Horry’s defense on Odom and tenacity in the paint got him plus +11 in 18 minutes. Add to the bigness of the Big 3–Ginobili had 30 and sparked the resurgence with a pair of first quarter treys; Duncan pulled a 20-20 game (actually 22-21) and is averaging more than 18 board per game in the series, and Parker was a game-best plus +26–and these savvy veteran role players have an acute appreciation of what is required to bag a ring. The Lakers are without question the more talented of the two teams, especially in the depth of their talent. But with the obvious exception of Kobe, and Fisher, they don’t know what it takes to win this deep into the postseason.

    Specifically, they didn’t realize Pops would emphasize nothing but offense–an unprecedented move for the coach–in the practice between Games Two and Three, to counter the sliding traps and pick-and-roll D that Phil Jackson had instituted so effectively. And they didn’t appreciate how many times San Antonio has been counted out in the past few years, only to come up big when it counts. It will really count in Game Four tomorrow night. Will Kobe decide to seize the game with a 30-shot effort, something his miraculous 4th quarter stint in Game Three indicates might be a way to vanquish the Spurs in San Antonio, or will he continue distributing and hope his backcourt mates follow his lead and that his front line finally comes to play in the paint? I’m guessing a little of both, and that the wild cards for the two ballclubs–Ginobili and Odom–will determine the winner.

    But, as we noted at the outset, I’ve been wrong before.

     

    Tomorrow, a look at the Celts-Pistons after four games.

  • Return To Forever

    If extravagant excess, jazz-rock
    division, is your preferred sonic energy drink, the reunion of the most
    fantastic of the various Return To Forever lineups is the gig of the
    summer. Precious few bands—Emerson Lake & Palmer and the Mahavishnu
    Orchestra     come to mind—indulged in ornate wankery with so much spunk
    and so little fear, and in terms of sheer technical facility, RTF arguably
    eclipses them all. Founding leader Chick Corea has put a notable dent
    in a half-dozen jazz genres; Stanley Clarke was trailblazing what it
    meant to be a fusion bassist as a teenager beside Corea back in the
    early ’70s; drummer Lenny White crammed funk, jazz, and rock into the
    same sidecar; and guitarist Al DiMeola is one of fusion’s most incandescent
    skywriters. Since dropping three classic records more than 30 years
    ago, the quartet members (especially Corea and DiMeola) have continued
    to grow, meaning all those mystically-titled tunes are apt to be given
    distinctive twists. For you young’uns unfamiliar with RTF, this was
    what it was like before video games—we slapped "Romantic Warrior"
    or "Return To the Seventh Galaxy" on the headphones and shut our
    eyes.

  • Eastern Conference recap, Western Conference preview, draft babble

    Let’s start with the Celts disposing of Detroit in Game One of the Eastern Conference finals. The ESPN color crew was clearly in the tank for the Pistons during the pregame, on the supposition that having a week off after playing a numbskull Orlando Magic team was better than finishing off a grueling seven-game battle with the Cavs just 48 hours before. They were wrong, of course: If the Celts are going to be hurt by the war with LeBron and company, it will be later, ’round about Games Five, Six and Seven, and the erosion will be as much mental as physical. I expect the Pistons to play much better in Game Two. I also don’t think the world will end for the Celts if they lose at home. They’ve never *had* to win a game on the road yet, and if they do I think, at least in this series, they will.

    As for Game One itself, let’s understand that the dynamic has shifted for the boys in green since the Cavs’ Game Seven: Paul Pierce is the clearcut igniter on offense, be it passing, shooting, tempo, whatever. This is all to the good for Boston because it gives their next two offensive threats, Garnett and Rondo, the freedom to play off Pierce’s decision-making. For KG it is a welcome luxury–he can concentrate on defense, where he almost never makes a bad decision, never mind choking, and still remain a guy you have to double-team in the low block at the other end. As Jeff Van Gundy pointed out last night, the pick and roll with Pierce and KG was very effective, and unless Jason Maxiell hits that extra gear like Paul Millsap occasionally achieved in Utah, it can be a Celtic bread-and-butter throughout, freeing up Pierce and KG for jumpers and drives, and almost guaranteeing the availability of safety valve dishes to Rondo. For Rondo it is luxury not to have to handle the ball all the time, which likewise frees him up for stellar defensive energy and open outside looks. You know all those shots Ray Allen is either missing or turning down? Give them to Rondo and Eddie House, especially if Billups is dinged up.

    It was a joy to read Doc Rivers proclaiming his faith in Rondo in Marc Stein’s Daily Dime at ESPN.com today. I’ve been waiting for people, but especially Rivers, to lavish praise and heavily massage Rondo’s ego, rather than that idiotic comment he made in the Cavs’ series about avoiding "heroic shots." But I understand I’m repeating myself here, so I’ll let it go at that. Ray Allen? Lose all expectations for the guy, because he is pressing, and pressing hard. He is intelligently doing the other things to minimize his inability to stick the outside jumper, including ball movement, penetration, and decent defense. The Celts just have to consider him a 4th or 5th option right now, and muck along. And consider this: If the law of averages works itself out and Allen returns to vintage form with a vengeance, Boston has a viable shot at a championship. In fact that about the only way I see them beating either the Spurs or the Lakers.

    Before we get into Lakers-Spurs, I want to harp back on the original point: Cleveland did Boston an enormous favor by pushing them to the brink and forcing them to configure different options and adjustments, and, most importantly, to determine a pecking order. These post-Cavs Celts are no longer democratizing the Big 3, and if the question were posed to them about who should take the game-ending shot to win or lose, both Pierce and KG wouldn’t simultaneously say "Ray" as they did before the Atlanta series. Meanwhile, Kendrick Perkins is no longer having to fend off tag teams of bigs like Z and Wallace and Smith and Varejao and coping with LeBron knifing down the lane. Detroit can still win this series, of course: They are experienced and resilient and synergistically talented. But this Celtics team has found its groove through adversity, which makes it a lot tougher, and more complicated, for the Pistons to triumph than it was a couple of weeks ago.

    Breaking down the Spurs versus the Lakers, it looks to be an immensely enjoyable, high-scoring affair. How does LA defend Tim Duncan, with Gasol, Odom, or mix-and-match? (This is when a healthy Andrew Bynum would really come in handy.) Do the Spurs really think Bruce Bowen is going to contain Kobe? Derek Fisher doesn’t have the foot-speed for Tony Parker (and doesn’t know the Spurs’ sets and tendencies the way he knew Deron Williams and the Jazz), and at the offensive end, Odom will be his usual matchup nightmare. Lots of points are to be had here, especially considering that both teams are very adept at turning turnovers into buckets.

    After watching the Spurs the last three or four years, plus the regular season this year, I made up my mind I’d pick them in every series until they lost or held the trophy. Before the playoffs began, I realized that if any team was going to test that faith, it would be the Lakers. They’ve got a cold-blooded closer in Kobe, a beautiful mixture of size, speed, and depth, and one of the few very coaches as wise and playoff-wizened as Pops. In my eyes, this is the real finals.

    It’s a cliche to say about any close, competitive series between two very deep teams, but the role players really do have a chance to tip the balance here. Ime Udoka seems to be as viable an option on Kobe as Bowen, and when Bowen inevitably gets toasted and/or in foul trouble, it will be interesting to see how Udoka fares. On the other side, Sasha Vujacic seems like the latest in a long line of players to pattern his game after Manu Ginobili, and if Vujacic can indeed hit those dagger treys and become the foul-drawing pest that is Manu the Great, it is a big lift for the Lakers. It is also not that far-fetched.

    Kobe and Duncan are not only going to get theirs, they’ll make sure their teammates share in the wealth. But can the Thomas/Oberto tandem stop Gasol, or hold him to mid-teens in points? How aggressively will Phil Jackson wield the Odom mismatch–I’d pound Odom off the dribble and in post-ups until San Antonio makes clear their response, then freelance off of that via Kobe and the three-point shooters. If Odom goes into one of his mental funks, it will be a huge problem for the Lakers; he really is the biggest wild card either way in this series.

    San Antonio in 6 or 7. But the Lakers in 6 or 7 wouldn’t exactly shock me.

    Longtime readers know I basically punt the draft lottery and defer to other, wiser, observers of the college, high school, and international game. My guess/advice for the Wolves in the last column was to prioritize their draft options as Rose/Beasley/Mayo/Lopez/trade down. Now that the ping-pong balls have given them a #3 pick, my excitement and interest goes up a notch. Taking a player you think will be at least the third best performer who is eligible for the pros this season is a big, big chip. I know the conventional wisdom is that it is a two-player draft, and I have no reason to dispute that. But here are the #3 picks from 2000-2007:

    2000  Darius Miles

    2001  Pau Gasol

    2002  Mike Dunleavy

    2003 Carmelo Anthony

    2004 Ben Gordon

    2005 Deron Williams

    2006 Adam Morrison

    2007 Al Horford

    The only flop is Morrison, and he still has a shot at redemption. Miles was a chucklehead, but when healthy, oh could he play. Dunleavy showed signs of becoming a player this year, while the stock of Gordon and Melo fell a bit from some lofty heights. Gasol, Williams and Horford are cornerstones. That’s a pretty good historical record. And remember, that’s just the #3 pick. If we look at the third best player taken in the first round from 2000-2007, it goes like this:

    2000: K-Mart of Mike Miller (behind Pryzbilla and Turkoglu, bad draft)

    2001: Gasol (behind Tony Parker and Tyson Chandler)

    2002: Tayshaun Prince or Caron Butler (behind Amare and Yao)

    2003: Bosh or Melo (behind LeBron and Wade)

    2004: Luol Deng or Iguodala (behind D Howard and Jefferson)

    2005: Bynum (behind Paul and Williams)

    2006: Rudy Gay o
    r Rondo (behind Roy and Aldridge)

    2007: Kevin Durant (behind Horford and Oden, although you can flip ’em)

    Okay, enough covering up my lack of detailed knowledge about these picks with thumbnail history. The abiding point is, this third overall pick is a very valuable commodity. It is hard to totally screw it up, and possible to resurrect your franchise. Kevin McHale says he likes eight people in this draft and others have said it is very deep. If true, the Wolves should consider a trade, especially if the guy(s) they like is somewhat under the radar. With that, I’ll let my smart commenters take over.

  • Hoops Delirium: Hit and Run

    (AFP/Getty Images/Chris Graythen)

     

    In just a few hours, the San Antonio Spurs will either add another bullet point on their dynasty-like resume, or flip the championship torch toward the winner of the Hornets-Lakers series. I called the series for the Spurs in 6 or 7 and will gladly ride my choice-is-made-for-me decision to pick San Antonio until I see an opponent drive the stake through their enormous heart.

    Have six relative blowouts in a row ever been this much fun to watch? Whoever owns home court seems to exert their will over the other team–to the tune of double-digits. Here’s why I think that changes tonight:

    * The Spurs have three guys who come up huge at crunchtime. In what order does New Orleans seal them off? If I’m Byron Scott, I try and single-cover Tim Duncan with Tyson Chandler and pray for lenient refs. If the Hornets can limit perimeter ball movement and force Ginobili to put it on the floor rather than pop treys from outside, the odds of victory rise in their favor. If Ginobili is the Spurs’ leading scorer and gets more from behind the arc than he does in the paint, I don’t see how the Hornets win. And that’s what I think is going to happen.

    * David West’s aching back. Chris Paul is becoming as reliably spectacular as LeBron or Kobe, but if West is at all compromised, Paul will need a game for the ages–say, 35-40 points and 12-18 assists–to put his team into the conference finals. Peja has been a pleasant surprise a couple of times in this series–more than just a catch and shoot guy–but I don’t think he exerts his will over Bowen in a Game 7. If West doesn’t get his usual 24-38 points, it will have to be Pargo or MoPete or maybe Julian Wright, plus elevation in Paul’s numbers. BTW, the Spurs fans chanting for Horry after he put an extra nudge into West’s sore back the other night, plus all the flopping and bitching and Pops hack-a-whoever, plus the innate charm of West, Paul and Chandler, has this confirmed lover of Spurs style basketball not minding very much if New Orleans short-circuits that San Antonio legacy tonight.

    * Veterans off the bench. It still blows my mind that the Spurs have Kurt Thomas. When teams are as closely matched as these two, having a tough, smart vet who knows when to shoot and when to pass, when to foul and when to concede the hoop, when to show hard on the pick and roll and when to stay home–and he’s either playing beside Tim Duncan or giving Duncan a precious breather–is huge. Then there are the outside gunners: Finley, Barry, Horry, and even Udoka is no spring chicken. The pressure is really on the Hornets bench, especially Pargo and Wright, to negate that advantage. It might happen, but a better case can be made that it might not.

    Of course Hornets’ fans have some nice cards to play in their game-winning scenario. Paul consistently gets in the paint and drives the Spurs nuts. Chandler and the oddly timed double team frustrate Duncan. West has enough pain-killers and will-power to work his marvelous midrange game, a platter of foul line jumpers and left block left handers mixed with the occasional transition hoop off turnovers. Parker gets joustled off his game. And this young and very talented team doesn’t know from pressure, expects and then experiences their four straight home thrashing of the older, finally vanguished Spurs.

    Just before yesterday’s Celts-Cavs Game 7 I had decided to pick Detroit over Boston or Cleveland over Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals. Then I saw the game. Hey, the Celtics have a go-to guy, and with it, a genuine pecking order! Okay, give me the Celts over the Pistons.

    I understand that going with Boston at this juncture is as shaky as picking the Spurs tonight. And I know the Pistons have formidable matchups for each one of the big three–Prince on Pierce, ‘Sheed on KG, Rip on Allen. Plus Jason Maxiell might be a tad too quick for Kendrick Perkins and Chauncey Billups a tad too large for Rajon Rondo. But in retrospect, I’m sort of amazed the Celtics survived two series without having established alphas and betas among their stars. That’s an incredible amount of uncertainty that no longer exists: This is Pierce’s team on the offensive end as much as it is KG’s on the defensive end. I know Prince did a nice job on him in the three games they played this season; that the numbers favor KG being the man. But Pierce just got through with seven games against LeBron James; Prince is going to feel like balsa wood after that.

    That said, the Pistons have a big edge in the backcourt. If Eddie House drinks the same crate of adrenaline he swallowed for Game 7, I’d stick him on Billups for a little rubber hose action. Even so, it is time for Rondo to step up his consistency; he needs to stick more open jumpers (and take more treys to open up the floor), and either get more steals or draw more charges–generate turnovers on Detroit, in other words, to be truly effective. As for Rip Hamilton on Ray Allen, well, hopefully Allen sleptwalked through the Cavs series to store up energy to chase Hamilton through multiple picks. And that Game 7 plan of putting House and Rondo and Allen into a rotation, until Allen’s shooting eye warrants more minutes, should remain in effect.

    All the games during the regular season were low scoring affairs, but I expect that to rise some this time; the Celts are freed from uncertainty and the Pistons should score plenty from midrange according to Flip’s fat playbook. Who knows, the winner might even hit 100 one of these times.

    Celtics in 7, with each team winning once on the road.

    Quick hits…

    Aside from Kobe, the most valuable Laker in the Jazz series was obviously Derek Fisher. How classy is the Utah franchise for letting Fisher go so he could have a better place to take care of his daughter? The Jazz were not only deprived of a gutsy, cool-headed crunchtime performer, but Fisher spent the previous two years helping Deron Williams learn the offense Fisher wound up defending. That was a huge advantage.

    But we’ll get into the Lakers during the Western Conference Finals preview in a day or so.

    Count me among those who think Mike D’Antoni in New York is idiotic. Hey, it’s not too late for a coaching swap: Scott Skiles to the Knicks, where he knocks Curry’s and Zach’s heads together and gets Balkman and Lee excited about real 94-foot basketball; and D’Antoni to Milwaukee, where Redd and Mo Williams and Yi and Bogut are tailor made for his flash and pass go-go ball.

    Last and least, my uninformed preferences on Wolves’ draft picks:

    Rose/Beasley/Mayo/Lopez/trade down

  • Lizz Wright

    The 28-year old Georgia native flexes her emotional range on The
    Orchard     (which dropped in late February), her third and best disc to
    date. Producer Craig Street concocts the sort of pop-jazz-soul-gospel
    stew he fashioned to break Cassandra Wilson into the mainstream, and
    Wright provides a similarly breathy, atmospheric vocal. Left field
    covers of Led Zeppelin (a graceful "Thank You") and Patsy Cline (a
    soulfully dumbstruck "Strange") are stuck at the end, prefaced by a
    half-dozen tunes Wright co-wrote with guitarist-singer Toshi Reagon,
    including the seething "Leave Me Standing Alone" and the gorgeous,
    crooning baptismal, "Song For Mia." There’s also the nurturing maturity
    of "Speak Your Heart" and a sexy blues, torch-song rendition of Ike
    Turner’s "I Idolize You" that reportedly slays in concert. Wright has
    always had the rep of being better onstage than in the studio. Now that
    she’s stepped it up a notch on record, who knows what this shift from
    the clubs to the midsized Varsity venue portends.

  • Many Rivers to Cross

    Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

    The impatience and exasperation leaking out of commentator Hubie Brown last night ratified my impressions of the Celtics-Cavs series. Brown, who was actually courtside covering the Lakers’ inevitable takedown of the Jazz, not only felt compelled enough to detour for an analysis of Boston-Cleveland, but broke the unwritten commandment that ex-coaches don’t directly rip current members of the fraternity. It is on the Boston coaching staff, Brown flatly stated, to figure out how to get three premium scorers off enough to reach 90 points in a game.

    Think about that for a moment: A team with Garnett, Pierce and Allen in this era of hand-check fouls not getting to 90 in 5 of the 6 games versus Cleveland thus far (Brown mistakenly thought they hadn’t done it once, probably seeing that they are well below a 90 point average in the series). Now some of this clampdown should be credited to Cavs’ coach Mike Brown, a Gregg Popovich disciple who routinely gets ripped for his unimaginative offense while those same pundits discount that Brown’s gameplans took his team to the Finals last year and are a game away from the conference finals this season. But Brown’s point is the salient one: On a ballclub with three players who each had been their team’s #1 offensive option for years and years, why can’t Doc Rivers and his crew figure out a way to put the ball in the damn bucket?

    Looking at the numbers more carefully damns Rivers a little deeper. If the Celts blow this series, his decision to ride Sam Cassell instead of Eddie House will have shamrock adherents cursing into their brews for years to come. Yes, the Celts need to spread the floor. But Cassell is more a midrange jumpshooter and post-up guy, and he is waaaay too slow to play effective defense. Eddie House has legit three point range–indeed, that’s his specialty. So instead of playing House and stretching the Cleveland D, Rivers goes to Sam I Am, who wants to play it cute off the dribble and post-up and lean-in, etc. Big mistake.

    Then, in the most informative of all the "Wired" comments viewers have been able to glean in these playoffs, we hear Doc Rivers cautioning all his players, but particularly his young point guard Rajon Rondo, from taking too many "heroic shots" during the game, presumably meaning high-risk, high-reward missives. Is that really what you want to impart to your high-strung 22-year old point guard in his first-ever playoff run?

    Here’s a news flash for Rivers and his assistants: The Cavs’ bigs, especially Joe Smith, are showing hard and deep into the perimeter on pick and rolls. LeBron has effectively locked up top scorer Paul Pierce. Garnett is being allowed some success on midrange and in the paint–he’s shooting 56.7% for the series, while his teammates are clanking away at 37.4%. But the Cavs have decided Ray Allen isn’t going to get any open looks from outside, and Allen, either by reason of temperament, age, injury, or whatever, has gone along with the plan and not managed to score, or even shoot very often, He’s tied for first with KG on the Celts with 232 minutes played in this series but is 4th on the team in field goal attempts and 8th in FGA per minute! And maybe that reticence is a good idea, given that he’s only converting 34.5% of his shots, and just 18.2% from outside the arc.

    In other words, this is a hell of a time for the coach to be telling the other guy in the backcourt, the impressionable Rondo, to be careful about his shot selection. And then subbing in another guy, Cassell, who had the will, and the stones, but, alas, no longer the talent, to be heroic.

    Rivers finally caught a clue in last night’s mud-wrestling Game Six defeat, but too little and too late. After a nice breakout in Game Five, Rondo was backed to being cowed–he took 4 shots in 30:33–but, ta da!, we saw some extended time for Eddie House. And whaddaya know, he came in and immediately stretched the Cavs’ defense. In fact with House sharing the backcourt with Allen, and KG in the low block, the Celtics were the better team–specifically ten points better, in a combined 11:57. Take KG out of the equation and consider just House and Allen sharing the backcourt: the Celts were still a plus +16 in 16:13.

    Yes, that’s right, with two outside shooting threats and a vital low post option, Cleveland’s defense is less effective. And yes, you need that high-low critical mass. KG with Allen was plus +8 in 38:09 and a whopping minus -15 in the mere 4:33 Allen wasn’t on the floor with him. But House and Allen make each other much more effective too. They were plus +16 in the mere 16:13 they played together–nor was it a fluke of the game flows, as they were at least plus +4 in each of three separate stints together. Ah but without Allen to draw perimeter attention, House was minus -9 in 1:58.

    Each game is different of course. But the newfound aggressiveness Pierce has shown, even when LeBron is on him, demonstrates what he thinks of Rivers’ "no heroic shots" mantra. To prevent his team from an outright mutiny, Rivers needs to play House more often and/or give Rondo the green light to shoot when the Cavs’ D is keyed on KG and Allen and LeBron is checking Pierce. That’s blatantly obvious. Rivers also has to be thankful he didn’t ruin House’s confidence by essentially shelving him the first five games of the series (when House played a grand total of 11 minutes).

    Some other observations about Game Six and the series in general…

    * Rivers was absolutely right to bitch about the charging call on Pierce in the final minutes, a crucial whistle that denied the Celts’ comeback. Replays clearly showed LeBron reaching in, and the fact that both men flopped dramatically–you’d think each was equipped with reverse magnetism on the play–in no way should detract from the substantial contact that was clearly initiated by LeBron.

    * All season long I have been a staunch defender of "the other two" in the Celts’ starting lineup, and have seen that faith justified by both Rondo and center Kendrick Perkins. But while Rondo has remained impressive (if predictably inconsistent), Perkins has had a terrible postseason, with his lack of quickness apparent and his grit lacking in the offensive rebounding battles the Cavs keep winning. A big game from Perkins–not scoring, so much as boxing out and staying out of foul trouble–would be huge in Game Seven.

    * I’m not the first person who has said this (or at least it seems so obvious that I’m sure others have alluded to it) but where the Cavs have an uber alpha dog in LeBron, the Celts have a trio of betas as their semi go-to guys. As good as KG has been in this series, I’ve seen a couple of short-armed jumpers in the paint in the 4th quarter. Allen has little or no inclination to rustle himself out of his mental barcalounger and try to take over. And Pierce is meeting his match and then some trying to contain and then rid himself of LeBron. Bottom line, as good as KG-Pierce-Allen have been throughout their careers, Garnett’s Game Seven versus Sacramento four years ago remains the top example of one of these three seizing the game by the throat and delivering the victory. This entire series has felt like the Cavs scrabbling uphill, hell bent for triumph, while the Celts are trying to avoid embarassment. The question is, if they thrash the Cavs (or even beat them by more than a last-second bucket) tomorrow, does two of these do-or-die survivals finally get them over the mental hump in time for the Pistons?

    Final note: I haven’t forgotten about the other three series, and especially Game Seven for the Spurs and Hornets. I’ll be posting more in the next day or two.

  • Gordon Johnson GJ4 CD Release Party

    Gordy Johnson is a connoisseur of jazz piano trios, and not
    coincidentally the format is his metier as a bassist. As its title
    implies, GJ4 is the fourth time Johnson has mixed and matched trios
    from his impressive connections with national stars and local
    luminaries who are drummers and pianists, and it is arguably his best
    foray into this self-defined realm thus far. My favorite songs on the
    disc are the pair with Johnson musically astride the restless,
    harmonically acute ivory stylings of precocious local Tanner Taylor and
    the surprisingly restrained yet simmering beats offered up by
    ex-Journey and current Vital Information drummer Steve Smith. Don’t
    miss Matt Wilson’s innovative drumming on the Dewey Redman tribute,
    "Joie de Vivre" and the Alec Wilder composition, "I’ll Be Around," or
    the hushed delicacy of Johnson with Bad Plus timekeeper Dave King and
    the exquisitely pensive ex-pat Minnesotan Bill Carrothers on piano on
    the closing "Sleep Warm." Taylor will be on board for this CD release
    gig at the Dakota, along with Monkish pianist Laura Caviani, who
    contributes the gently burnished "The Return" on GJ4, and pianist Bryan
    Nichols    , who is featured with Johnson and Wilson on those Redman and
    Wilder numbers. The beats will be ably rapped out by Phil Hey, who has
    pretty much set the gold standard for local jazz drummers the past two
    decades. But most of all, these trio CD releases are the rare occasions
    when Johnson’s penetrating bass lines and solos are as much the star as
    the character actor complement to the prevailing music, an
    assertiveness that both rewards and reminds us of his talent.

  • NBA Second Round Update Thread

     

     Celtics-Cavs Update: Squared series after 88-77 Cavs win last night.

     It is always so easy to blame the coach, but I don’t see how Rivers avoids castigation here. He has decided that veterans new to the team are more reliable than the guys who got him 66 wins. Last night PJ Brown had a stellar game flashing out for that sideline pop shot, and he wasn’t too shabby on defense either. But having PJ on the floor enabled Mike Brown to keep Joe Smith on Brown and Varejao on KG, meaning, as Levi astutely pointed out in the comments below, he was the go-to guy in the low block at crunchtime. Bad idea.

    But the killer for the Celts is this Sam Cassell fixation. It gets a little wearisome listening to folks blaming Rondo for all the shots he has taken (Magic Johnson, with his predictably stupid, star-centered analysis, hammered this point) without noticing that Rondo made half of his 14 attempts in 33:47 and was a minus -5 while the Celts as a team made 38.6% in 48 minutes and were a minus -11. Cassell, by the way, was 0-5 FG and minus -6 in just 14:13, while Boobie Gibson ran circles around him–a mismatch so blatantly obvious I was hollering for it in the stuff I wrote before the game.

    Levi is also right that Ray Allen is co-goat in that he is not being aggressive at all in terms of looking for his shot, and with Rivers stupidly leaving Eddie House on the bench in favor of Cassell, the Celts only have a midrange game versus the Cavs.

    Last but certainly not least, how good is Lebron James in the postseason? As his encore for dismantling the Pistons last year, he’s pretty much single-handedly winning this second-round. He had 21 points last night–nobody else on the floor had more than 15. He had 13 assists–nobody else on the floor had more than 4. And during the 3:43 he sat at the end of the first half, Paul Pierce shot 2-4 FG. Pierce also scored two buckets in the brief time Pavlovic was on him when the Cavs went small, meaning that the vast majority of Pierce’s misses in a 6-17 FG night came with LeBron on him. Got that? The leader in points and assists by a huge margin and the shutdown defender on the other team’s top scorer. Bravo.

     

    "And we’re baaaaaack!" as the Jimmy Fallon character Joey Mack used to say on SNL.

    With a game on every night, the dilemma has been to put something up that isn’t immediately dated. At the risk of disrupting some really insightful comment threads that occur when I let things languish, my solution is to update my content as we go along (for example, I’ll only post about the Eastern Conference on this first go-round then come back and add the West after today’s games) and then post every two or three days. So let’s get to it.

    Detroit-Orlando: An unmagical bore

    There is a glaring difference between the caliber of play in the two conferences in this second round, with the intensity and ability of the two Western series utterly compelling, while the East is clearly least, a maddening array of missed opportunities, a pair of skirrmishes of strategic ineptitude and dysfunctional execution. And the Pistons-Magic matchup has thus far been worst of all.

    With 7:42 left to play in the third quarter Saturday, the Magic were up by 15, 63-48, to a team obviously missing the injured Chauncey Billups at both ends of the court. The Pistons proceeded to go on a 28-7 run that had them up by 6, 76-70, with 8:40 to go. During that 10:58 of action, Orlando went 2-17 from the field. Clueless Jameer Nelson led the squad in shots during that woeful stint, making one of five and missing two free throws. Nelson’s missed free throw with 44 seconds to play also spelled the difference between a loss and overtime in the 90-89 defeat. True, Nelson generally had his way with Rodney Stuckey, but when Detroit subbed in defensive specialist Lindsay Hunter, why did Nelson keep chucking?

    Nelson is just one of many goats here. Fresh off his being named to the All-NBA First Team as center, Dwight Howard was horrible, shooting 0-9 from the field in the final 43 minutes of the game, a period that saw him grab 6 offensive rebounds without converting a single one into any points–three missed putbacks and misfired jumpers by Nelson (twice) and Keyon Dooling ensued. Meanwhile, SVG clung to a crunchtime matchup of Dooling on Rip Hamilton, against all evidence that it could succeed. This was manna from heaven for matchup maven Flip Saunders, who posted Rip up on Dooling about a half-dozen plays in a row. Yes, Hamilton missed a couple of j’s over Dooling, but Van Gundy’s refusal to utilize the double team and to leave Dooling–who is four inches shorter than Rip and had four fouls at that point–out to dry was idiotic, especially after Hamilton fouled Dooling out (the frustrated Drooling picked up a T as he exited) and hit those free throws down the stretch.

    Understand that this was a game Orlando had in its hands. All they needed to do was play fundamentally sound defense and move the ball on offense. Instead, they let Detroit beat them in transition off the turnovers (something that simply hasn’t happened as often in the Utah-LA and SA-NO series, where transition D is a priority), refused to run any plays into the post for their lone All Star, let Jameer Nelson imagine himself as the catalyst of the offense rather than a fourth option in the half-court, and had Hedo Turkoglu burn all kinds of time off the clock so that when his terrible scoop shot off the drive barely grazed the front iron at the end, Orlando couldn’t even desperately foul in time to save the game for another possession.

    If I were Detroit, I’d leave Billups on the shelf for the next two games (if it comes to that) against the Magic, give him time to fully heal. Because either the Celts or the Cavs are a significant step up from Orlando, and the Western champion will be at least a step up from there. Put simply, Detroit doesn’t need Billups to close this out–in fact Hunter got better as the game went along, a nice little dividend for the Pistons if the gritty vet can find a rhythm with these extra minutes–but if he isn’t mostly healthy in the matchups after Orlando, the Piston have little or no shot to advance.

    Celtics-Cavs: Still Waiting on LeBron

    Oh how the national network audience wanted to canonize LeBron James last night, declare him fully back in all his glory after his putrid 8-42 FG flop in the first two games of the Boston-Cleveland series. And one could convincingly argue that LBJ delivered, stuffing the stat sheet for 21 points, 8 assists (half of them dazzling), 3 blocks (all of them dazzling), 4 steals, the snuffing of Paul Pierce on defense (Pierce had more turnovers than field goals) and a game-best plus +29 in 40:15 of play. What more could anyone possibly want or expect out of the 23-year old superstar?

    Scoring off dribble penetration, that’s what. The Cavs would be up 2-1 instead of the other way around if LeBron had been able to finish at the rim in Game One, and they won’t win this series if he can’t get to the cup and either convert the layups or the free throws the rest of the way. The only blemish in James’s game Saturday night was his 2-11 bricklaying from inside the arc, giving him a horrendous 10-43 FG total on non-3-pointers in the first three games. That’s 23.3% shooting on two-pointers for arguably the best penetrator in the NBA.

    Fortunately, LeBron has gotten to the FT line 35 times in the three contests thus far, and made 25, or 71.4%. What that number tells you is that the Celts, much like the Wizards in the previous series, are determined to make LeBron "earn it at the line." That’s code for "beat the shit out of him."

    Yeah, I’ve heard all the old-timers talk about how the game isn’t as tough as it used to be, that the flagrant foul rules have sissified things and that back in the day–when men were men and wore shorts so tight they got hernias when they saw a pretty girl in the stands–players could administer a proper beatdown in the
    paint without worrying about those nanny refs butting in.

    Well, like most occasions in any arena where old-timers are talking about their prime, it’s about four parts bullshit (due to exaggeration) and one part truth. I’m old enough to give the old-timers a run for their fading memories, starting watching hoops in 1959 at age 6, and I can tell you that there is more gratituous pounding and takedowns now than there ever was. First of all, the athletes are bigger, quicker, jump higher, and head to the hole more fearlessly, meaning the potential for injury is greater. Second, all the contemporary players have heard and bought in to the bullshit about how the vintage NBA was tougher. It wasn’t.

    Yeah, maybe you had more burly white guys slugging each other with elbows–call it joustling with a vengeance–down in the low block. But the infamous Kevin McHale takedown of Kurt Rambis back in the 80s is so widely remembered precisely because it was relatively rare and particularly violent. You didn’t see guys clotheslined and cross body-blocked nearly as often as you do today–and, to reiterate, when it did happen, they weren’t moving nearly as fast, jumping as high, and being finished off nearly as thoroughly. How many of you old-timers remember Dr. J getting clocked the way LeBron has gotten clocked in the past couple of years? Or what about other erstwhile high-flyers like Elgin Baylor, or even Michael Jordan? The Pistons had a deserved reputation as Bad Boys, but watch them try to intimidate the Bulls and compare it to the way the Wizards went after LeBron in the first round this year. They are very very comparable, and yet Washington’s Brendan Haywood can actually call LBJ a crybaby, even as his punk-ass gets schooled by Ilgauskas for most of the series. The old timers are spooling out self-aggrandizing nonsense and the young’uns full of testosterone are gobbling it up and turning hoops into something as stupid as hockey.

    Unfortunately, that’s what it has come to. It turns out that yesterday I was switching channels between baseball, hoops and hockey, and saw the end of the Red Wings-Stars hockey game. The goalie cheap-shoted a Stars skater right at the end of the game, the player retaliated with a swung-stick spear into the goalie’s chest, where all the padding is, and the goalie went down like he’s been tasered. After seeing the replays it was clearly all an act. So later in the day I’m watching LeBron drive and James Posey–a player I like and respect–cheap shots him with a hand across the neck off the drive. It was properly ruled a flagrant foul, but James, like Detroit goalie Chris Osgood, played it to the hilt, going down and grimacing like crazy, rolling in agony. So what we’ve got now is alternately more cheap shots–just off the top of my head I can think of Jason Kidd’s takedown of a Hornet player, Marvin Williams horse-collaring Rondo, Raja Bell doing his thing on Manu Ginobili, the Stevenson clothesline and the Haywood push on LeBron, and I’m not even counting Boozer knocking out Landry’s tooth because that really was accidental–and more ostentatious acting, of the sort made famous by the flopping Spurs. These two things beget each other, and it is time to call bullshit on the whole thing, increase the penalties for flagrants, institute a foul for flopping, and tell the senile braggarts that they really didn’t eat nails and the daughters of their opponents for breakfast.

    But back to LeBron: I think the punishment has had an effect. I think the Wizards did rough him up and that the Celts are doing the same thing. And when you get called a crybaby anyway, maybe the best course of action is to zip it to the open man and find your long-range jumper rather than put up with all the abuse. In any event, I repeat, the Cavs don’t win without LeBron scoring enough off the dribble to collapse the Celtic D for Z’s short pops, Szczerbiak’s long-range catch-and-shoots (and if Mike Brown doesn’t bench him every time Wally puts the ball on the floor with a defender on him, I’ll start believing all the terrible things people say about his coaching), and Ben Wallace’s wide open layups and putbacks on the weak side followups.

    As for the Celts, I’m delighted to report that KG is having a monster series. His aggressiveness toward the hoop sealed the deal in crunchtime of Game One and he alone came out ready to play in Game Three. Meanwhile, what has happened to Ray Allen? Paul Pierce understandably has his hands full, but if Allen can’t make the likes of Szczerbiak or Boobie Gibson pay on the offensive end, Doc Rivers might as well go with Eddie House to spread the floor.

    Bottom line, this is still anybody’s series. I thought the energy that Ben Wallace, Delonte West and Joe Smith brought to the floor in Game Three was as important as LeBron’s regal peformance in securing the victory, and think that every time Rivers relies on Sam Cassell to get things rolling he is gambling mightily. Mike Brown needs to make Boobie Gibson a permanent matchup for Cassell, then instruct him to never leave his feet when guarding Cassell and to put down the throttle every time he has the ball with Cassell on him. If the Cavs win Game Four, we’re going to get pounded by that home/road split for the Celts until we all turn the sound down. BTW, Boston doesn’t have to win one damn road game to capture the trophy, so let’s give that a rest, eh.

    Besides, just watching the way these series have unfolded, does anyone seriously think the eventual champ is coming out of the East?

    First Road Win Captures the Second Round in the West

    As I was saying about ugly takedowns…

    Actually, I honestly don’t think Ronnie Turiaf was trying to pound Price; at least not as blatantly as has occurred a dozen other plays in this postseason. It was just an unfortunate landing that had Price’s arms unable to protect his head from splitting open on the floor. It deserved to be a flagrant, of course, but I think if Price gets his hands down and there isn’t blood everywhere, Turiaf stays on the court instead of getting booted. On the other hand, Turiaf obviously hit Price hard enough to spin him; that and bumping against other players going down is why Price could break or brace his fall. And after calling for tougher penalties on flagrants, I can’t really rebut Turiaf getting tossed. But all things being relative, the actual hit Turiaf laid on him doesn’t even rank in the top ten goon moves for this postseason.

    As for the game, well, the issue here is how long do you or should you ride your stud superstar when he clearly isn’t the best option for your ballclub? This is what I knew would happen to the Wizards when Arenas came back–Agent Zero has enormous ability and an even bigger ego, and his desire to make an impact screwed up the pecking order that has served Washington well in his absence. And you could see it coming a mile away–I called it in the Cavs-Wiz series preview.

    Now Kobe Bryant is a different story. The flare-up of his back obviously rendered him into an ordinary athlete, but what makes Kobe Kobe isn’t just athleticism, it is great court vision, his wiley ways when he has the rock, his insatiable competitiveness, and ability to come up big in the clutch. So if I’m Phil Jackson, yeah, I probably call Kobe’s number in the huddle during the crunchtime timeouts–but I stipulate to him that if others are open, check those options too. I leave Kobe at his rightful place atop the pecking order, but plant the seed that the way to win when your back is ailing and the brutal Jazz won’t let you get a clean look even if you are healthy and quick is to find the open man and let him take the shot. Which is exactly what happened on the drive and kick out to Lamar Odom for that tying trey near the end of regulation, a perfectly called and executed play.

    But too often, Kobe tried to do it on his own. Odom bailed him out once with a great follow after Kobe blew the layup, and Derek Fisher was the hero of the dozen-point comeback in the final few minutes of regulation, yet Kobe kept trying to summon
    all the physical gifts normally at his disposal, long past the time when everyone watching knew he couldn’t. Hey, the refs even bailed him out on that Kirilenko "foul" right in front of the Jazz bench.

    No, the Jazz deserved to win this game, and if they designated the game’s number 1, 2, and 3 stars to come out and take a bow like in hockey, the top guy would be Deron Williams, who has pretty much demonstrated that nobody but Fisher can guard him effectively on the Lakers–LA fans will be throwing things at their TV sets the next time Jordan Farmar is assigned to Williams. In a contest loaded with tremendous crunchtime shots, none was better than Williams moving to his right after nearly losing the ball at half court and then launching over a looming Pau Gasol. You also have to give a curtain call to Mehmet Okur, whose reputation for coming up big when it matters most was burnished a little further today with his step-back treys and that immensely important offensive rebound he pulled down.

    But do the Lakers win this game is Kobe is healthy? Yes, I think so. You can’t keep Kyle Korver on the floor as often, for example, and AK-47 doesn’t get to swoop behind Kobe for that block off penetration–how often does a healthy Kobe lack the quickness to get his shot blocked cleanly from behind? For that matter, how often does Kobe get his shot blocked five times in a single game? But it isn’t Kobe’s injury that should have Laker fans kicking themselves; it is Kobe’s refusal to do what was best for the team. If you are beseiged by back spasms for the last three quarters plus overtime, do you really want to jack up 33 shots, especially when Odom and Gasol combined for 21-34 FG? Odom in particularly looked ready to take over a few times (he would have been the third guy called out to take a bow afterward), and having him get the chance to secure a 3-1 lead heading back to LA would have been a boon for the Lakers regardless of how it turned out today.

    Instead, Kobe overreached. Even the fact that he got 10 assists isn’t all good news, since it was half of the Lakers total in 53 minutes of action, demonstrating how little anyone else was allowed to create. The ostensible point guards Fisher and Farmar had *zero* assists in a combined 37:08, and only two turnovers combined, meaning their role in igniting the offense was minimal. Now, Fisher got in early foul trouble guarding Williams and Farmar was waaay overmatched–he was minus -19 in a scoreless 18:43–but the Lakers’ forte is ball movement. All five of their starters can sling the rock. So why is it that only Kobe, Gasol (4) and Luke Walton (3) had more than 2 assists, while every member of the Jazz starting five posted at least three, led by Williams’s game-high 14 dimes? Ball movement leads to high percentage shots and forced fouls by the opposition. Well, the Jazz shot 52.6% from the field and went to the line 45 times. The Lakers shot 47.4% from the field and went to the line 25 times. Kobe and Gasol combined for 49 FGA and 12 FTA.

    I still think the Lakers are going to win this series, provided Kobe’s back improves enough for him to play without martyrdom in Game Five. But Williams and Okur have both proven to be tough matchups. Odom can’t guard both Okur and Boozer, unfortunately, which means Gasol has to step up–his defense remains one of the Lakers’ few obvious weaknesses going forward. Of course Turiaf may get suspended for his takedown of Price, further complicating things. In the backcourt, I’d think about Walton playing some point on Williams. In any case, this series is better contested than I envisioned when I called it for LA in 5 or 6 at the onset.

    Did anyone really expect the Spurs to roll over and let the Hornets run them off the court in San Antonio? Tonight’s thrashing was surprising only in how little resistance New Orleans provided, and demonstrated a few things that are obvious enough to be conventional wisdom by now. One is that Bruce Bowen was always a better matchup on Peja than on Chris Paul. Just because Bowen had some success on Steve Nash in the past doesn’t mean he could stay with CP3. Paul is quicker and a better dribbler under seige. Nash excels at dishing in the open court on the fly; take away that space for him to survey the terrain and his effectiveness diminishes much more than it does for Paul under the same circumstances. You pressure Paul when he has the ball and it is far more likely he breaks you down, and then contently chooses between shooting the open jumper or drawing opponents and feeding the bounce pass or alley oop into the paint. Nash is probably a better shooter when he’s being contested (he’s three inches taller than Paul), but Paul is better at getting uncontested, especially when it is an older, rugged-but-slower guy like Bowen doing the checking. By contrast, Bowen’s in-your-jersey approach really bedevils Peja, who was magnificent not only on the catch-and-shoot during the two games in New Orleans, but in running the floor, taking people off the dribble, and crashing the offensive boards. Now that Bowen is putting the clamps on Peja, Paul and Parker are both running wild, and thus essentially cancelling each other out, a situation that very much favors San Antonio.

    Which brings us to the power forwards. After a simply stupendous first three games against a Spurs team that plays postseason defense as intelligently as any franchise in 40 years, David West was due for a bad game and perhaps not coincidentally it came on a night when Tim Duncan seemed to shake off the aches and illness that have plagued him the past week. The two don’t guard each other much, of course, but each anchors the low post offense for their team, and to the extent they successfully draw the opponents’ attention, the wider the lane gets for their teammates on penetration, and the easier the putbacks for the big men on the weak side. West is a deadly midrange shooter and a joy to watch spinning off his baseline shoulder for left-handed shots in the low left block. I’ll bet tonight is his lone stinker of the series, particularly if he can keep his temper totally under control, which apparently was no mean feat this evening.

    For Duncan, well, what can you say? He looked old and slow in the two tilts over in the Big Easy, but particularly tonight Popovich seemed to bring him out a little further away from the low block and toward the sideline, so that the inevitable double-teams created more ball-swings to the weak side, creating more running for the opponents, and many many more open treys in the corner and at the top of the key for the Bowens, Finleys, Ginobilis and Udokas of the world. The Spurs weren’t exactly marksmen on all those wide open looks–they shot 8-26 from beyond the arc–but they both wore the Hornets down with all that chasing, and also generated a helter-skelter chaos that deprived New Orleans of defensive rhythm. Right about the time the Hornets were instinctively flying toward the perimeter, Duncan decided to spin to the hoop (he was an efficient 10-13 FG) or Parker penetrated the open lanes (8-12 FG). New Orleans was working harder and less effectively.

    The final indignity was Duncan (twice) and then Ginobili drawing three fouls on defensive stopper Tyson Chandler in the first 3-plus minutes of the third quartrer. Suddenly with 8:39 to play in the third, Chandler had five fouls and the Hornets were down 19. It was right around then that New Orleans mentally threw in the towel, along with everyone but the most Hornets-addled fan watching at home. Byron Scott emptied his bench shortly after the 4th quarter and the older, slower Spurs had their garbage time to relax and ready themselves for Game Five.

    It should be a tremendous game. Even after San Antonio won Game Three, the fight staged by the Hornets–they pushed the Spurs to the brink a few times in the third and fourth quarters–had me rethinking my pick of the Spurs in 6 or 7. But San Antonio kept refining and came out in Game Four playing that incredibly well-spaced and unselfish ball movement offense that de
    stroyed the Suns in Game Three of their first round series. Can San Antonio impose their enormous will on the Hornets on the road? Paul and West both seemed a little pissed and twitchy tonight, an ire that could go either way in their motivation for Game Five. When the Spurs are annoying, they are almost always winning. On the other hand, Chris Paul and David West are bona fide NBA stars, right now, despite their youth, and Tyson Chandler should be in the conversation with Dwight Howard (and some would say Yao Ming) for who is the best center in the NBA. Yeah, I know Chandler didn’t even attempt a field goal tonight. But he is the chip Byron Scott has to play to avoid the disastrous double-team schemes on Duncan that the Spurs have clearly parsed out. And that matchup, perhaps more than any other, will detemine how this series is decided.

  • NBA Second-Round Playoff Preview

    Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

    First, some accountability on my first round predictions. Right now I’m technically five out of seven with the Celts-Hawks still incredibly yet to be determined, but I’d rather not be that simplistic–the devil (and angel) is in the details. For example, if the Celtics do prevail, I’ll have been "right" in my pick of Boston, but like most everyone else I was apparently foolish (and wrong) to automatically discount Atlanta and call for just a five game series. Ditto Detroit and Philadelphia: I called a Pistons sweep, and although the Sixers didn’t really elevate their play in the postseason, Detroit’s overconfidence and lethargy gave a couple away.

    Where else was I wrong? Well, I had the Wizards over the Cavs in 6 and the Rockets over the Jazz in 7. The first one was flat-out bad prognostication, although I did correctly point out that the injection of Gilbert Arenas into the mix would ultimately hurt Washington at least as much as it would help them. The Utah-Houston series, as I’ve said before, was a sentimental pick for the Yao-less Rockets, with an acknowledgment that Utah was capable of taking it in 5 (they won in 6). I enjoyed cheering on Houston, and don’t mind the inaccuracy here. But inaccurate it was, and you bet I would have strutted if the Rockets had prevailed.

    On the plus side, I was right to be baffled by the pundits mostly going for Dallas and Phoenix despite their lack of home court advantage and, not coincidentally, their ill-advised trades for stars long past their primes. I gave Steve Nash and Phoenix too much credit–and, despite being a huge fan of their grit when it counts, too little credit to the Spurs–in predicting a full 7-game set. But of all the series, I had the Hornets-Mavs sussed perfectly, nailing the length and tenor of the 5-game blowout. That leaves Orlando-Toronto and LA-Denver, two series I mostly had right, calling the victor and being just a little opmistic about how many tilts the loser would take.

    Things get a lot tougher to call here in the second round, especially after the desultory showings by the Celts and Pistons and the better-than-expected peformances by the Magic and Cavs. There’s really only one series I am pretty confident about, and even that one may go 6 or 7 games. And that’s where we’ll begin.

    Utah (5) vs. L.A. Lakers (1)

    Pivotal Points: Has Ronnie Brewer progressed enough during the season to be even halfway able to deter Kobe? Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko both played way over the heads vs. Houston–Okur on the boards, AK-47 via shooting. These three members of Utah’s starting five are crucial, because the Lakers won three of four during the season–including a March win at Utah without either Gasol or Bynum–by letting Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer essentially get theirs on offense but outscoring the Jazz anyway. How chippy will these games get: Utah fouls more (and perhaps harder) than any team in the league and the Lakers move the ball so well that we’re apt to see some nasty collisions. How will the Lakers–especially Lamar Odom–fare under pressure, something they never really faced vs. Denver?

    My guesses: Williams and Kobe are going to have huge series, as there’s nobody to stop them on the opposing side. Kobe’s presence really hurts Utah’s ability to use Kyle Korver, a huge minus for the Jazz. In their own way, this is the Lakers’ reprise of Showtime and Utah needs to muck it up with Harpring, Milsapp and their other bruisers, then hope Williams can carry them in the clutch. An uptempo pace favors LA and the forwards are vital: Gasol and Odom are suspected for being soft and a bit of a choker, respectively. If they can hold their own in the paint at both ends, Utah is in serious trouble. It will be interesting to see how Phil Jackson guards Okur: If he’s still on a roll, I’d think about Odom, or even Luke Walton, guarding him outside to deter the trey and to react with alacrity on the pick and rolls. Bringing Gasol out plays into Utah’s hands.

    My pick: A lot of people are on the Jazz bandwagon but I just can’t see it, especially against this large, quick, Lakers team. LA in 5 or 6.

    Orlando (3) vs. Detroit (2)

    Pivotal Points: Can Rasheed Wallace keep his cool enough to help neutralize Dwight Howard? Will he work in the paint and eschew the trey enough to perhaps get Howard in foul trouble? Will we see hack-a-Howard near the end of quarters in close games? Did Chauncey Billups just go through a bad patch vs. Philly or is he past his peak? Can the Pistons keep their focus through a semi-tough series? How much will Flip Saunders utilize his depth?

    My guesses: The Magic has no good matchup for Billups–Jameer Nelson and Keyon Dooling lack size and grit and Carlos Arroyo barely played vs. Toronto–but something about Billups looks funky lately and I don’t think he’s ready to take full advantage. Keith Bogans had much better luck guarding Rip Hamilton in the regular season than did starter Maurice Evans, so expect a quick hook there by Stan Van Gundy. Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu both had great passing series vs. Toronto and could create open treys if Detroit (necessarily) gets too preoccupied with Howard down low. Saunders has got to use his bench, especially Maxiell and Ratliff to help on Howard, and go with Stuckey to spell Billups. The evidence is that Detroit was scared straight by the losses to Philly and are ready to reassert. If they win both games in Detroit to start the series they could indeed roll. I think they’re ripe for an upset, but a couple stats hold me back: Detroit was second in the NBA in opposing 3pt shooting %, negating an Orlando strength. And Orlando had more turnovers than assists this season–not a good sign against a Pistons defense that can plays well together when the going gets tough.

    My Pick: Detroit in 7.

    San Antonio (3) vs. New Orleans (2)

    Pivotal Points: Will this fulfill its potential as one of the greatest second-round playoff series of all time? The refs are absolutely crucial because the Spurs pound the paint and the dropoff from Tyson Chandler to Hilton Armstrong is precipitous. If Chandler defends the rim without whistles it’s huge nod to the Hornets–and foul trouble for the big man means curtains for New Orleans. Can Jannero Pargo, a poor man’s Ginobili in the Dallas series, match up with Manu, because MoPete or Bonzie Wells ain’t gonna get it done. Can Bruce Bowen prevent Peja from getting open looks? How will Pops play West and Chandler with Duncan and Thomas/Oberto?

    My guesses: Neither Chris Paul nor Tony Parker will be as dominant as in round one–but they’ll still put on a hell of a show. The Spurs’ Boy Who Cried Wolf foul protestations will slowly but surely start to penalize them with the refs, but Chandler will still get in foul trouble at least one or two games. I absolutely love the way both of these teams play and am rooting less for one or the other than for both to perform up to their potential. If that happens, I think it comes down to veteran poise and crunchtime experience–don’t be surprised if Finley/Horry/Barry stick a dagger in at some point during the proceedings. For all the talk about Jason Kidd and Shaq, the Kurt Thomas pickup is second only to Gasol among contenders this season, and his ability to keep Duncan fresh and on the court, plus my ongoing belief that you don’t bet against the Spurs until you see that stake through their hearts, has me leaning toward the Spurs. But forcing them to win it in a Game Seven in the Big not so Easy would be extra sweet.

    My pick: San Antonio in 6 or 7.

    Cleveland (4) vs. Boston (1) [or Atlanta (8)]

    Pivotal Points: Is the luster off the Celtics’ confidence or
    is getting the stodgy Cavs after the uber-athletic Hawks all the elixir they need to reassert their primacy over the East? Uh, who the hell guards Lebron James; Mr. Posey, it is time for your super-closeup. Now that Doc Rivers has totally screwed up his rotation by deep-sixing Eddie House and Tony Allen while elevating the aged Sam Cassell, can Sam I Am at least hit some of those shots he clanked and then stupidly eschewed in the Atlanta series (because House would have made them)? Is Kevin Garnett finally ready to put all those whispers to rest and go at a past-his-prime Ben Wallace, or will he continue to get 22-10-7 and hurt his team with selflessness in crunchtime? Last but not least, what has happened to Ray Allen?

    My guesses: The Celtics will need to play really well–with much, much more poise and skill than vs. Atlanta–to pull this out in 6 or 7. LeBron is going to win at least one game all by himself and I think Z Ilgauskas, Wallace and Joe Smith in the paint plus Szczerbiak and Booby Gibson spotting up outside makes the Cavs dangerous on the offensive end and complements to the triple-teamed James. For the Celts to win, their erstwhile relentless D, led by KG and Rondo, need to create turnovers and transition baskets, plus Pierce and Allen need to compensate for their mediocre D (in Allen’s case make that horrible D) by proving they are indeed crunchtime stars. That will spread the floor enough for Garnett to work in the paint. But as a confirmed KG-lover I admit I’m rattled by what I’ve seen from this Beantown squad in the first round. It wouldn’t surprise me if both the Celts and the Pistons went down. I resisted the Pistons upset, but Detroit isn’t playing against the best player on the planet.

    My Pick: Cleveland in 6 or 7.

  • NBA Playoff Update

    AFP/Getty Images/Gregory Shamus
     

    Yeah, I know I still owe the second part of the Wolves season recap. But I confess that this steady diet of *quality* NBA basketball has made a return to Wolves-think fairly depressing. I will get to it in the next few days. Meanwhile, here are some thoughts on the playoffs thus far…

    Celtics and Pistons both in a dogfight

    Kevin Garnett and Flip Saunders are back in the pressure-cooker. Both have had very successful careers that are at least slightly besmirched by their (thus far) inability to elevate their game when it matters most. I find it interesting and inevitable that the KG backlash is occurring on the heels of the two losses in Atlanta. First of all, it wasn’t his man torching the club from outside all game–why Doc Rivers chose to ride with Ray Allen on Joe Johnson instead of throwing James Posey or Tony Allen on JJ, or even Rondo, with Allen switching to Bibby, is, ah perplexing. Or incompetent. I could also mention that Garnett had a whopping six steals and a team-best plus +7 in 41:59, meaning the Celts were minus -12 in the 6:01 he wasn’t on the floor.

    But KG was around for the entire fourth quarter collapse. And in addition to Joe Johnson’s 20 points in the period, Josh Smith had 12 points and 5 rebounds (versus KG’s 5 and 2), which included 8-8 FT. Going against Smith and Al Horford, both of whom he can finesse and muscle in the low block, Garnett should have stopped deferring to a dinged up Pierce and a defensively-bewildered Allen and started to go for his. Because with Cleveland, either Detroit or Orlando, and the Western champ on the horizon, it is not going to get any easier. I know this is not in KG’s natural make-up. But as one who named him the year’s MVP and steadfastly defended him ever since Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley unfairly called him out in the playoffs five or six years ago, he needs to see that giving himself and his team the crunchtime dimension of him in the low block is crucial to the Celts success further down the road. No time like the present to sift it in.

    But KG has it easy compared to Flip Saunders. Always a player’s coach (meaning he doesn’t challenge anybody and relies on self-policing) and a stickler for midrange jumpers, Flip simply doesn’t have the tools most vital for guiding a team through the gauntlet of playoff hoops–the capacity to trigger that extra gear the players themselves didn’t even know they had, and the ability to win games at the free throw line. The Celtics’ losses are fairly easy to explain–they were way too overconfident in Game 3 and then got bushwacked by a white-hot outside shooter in Game 4. But the Pistons’ performance has been horrible thus far–raise your hand if you think Philly won Games 1 and 3 more than Detroit lost them. What happened to Chauncey Billups? Seriously, Andre Miller is exactly the kind of matchup he should be dominating–Miller is if anything a poor man’s Billups–and yet Miller is the one coming up large. And isn’t it time to start running more plays for Tayshaun Prince, who remains a 4th option on this club after Rip, ‘Sheed, and Billups, all of whom seem to be both overconfident and lacking synergy while Prince keeps bailing them out with jumpers on the baseline.

    I think the Celts and Pistons will both ultimately prevail. But the second round in the East has suddenly gotten a lot more interesting.

    Magic and Lakers first to advance

    The only great surprise here is that George Karl is apparently coming back for another year in Denver. Okay, if Karl’s not responsible for what may be the biggest waste of pure talent on an NBA franchise, who is? How can any self-respecting coach sit and watch an entire season of opponents consistently getting into the paint–off the dribble, feeding the post, interior passes, transition, you name it–and not take drastic steps to curtail it? All year long, the Nugs frittered away 15 point leads and made 15 point comebacks on games they lost by 5-10 points. They are a bunch of lazy underachievers who have a pile of individual accolades and absolutely no desire to play as a team. Whether Karl is the instigator or merely the enabler of that culture, he’s got to go.

    What won the series for the Lakers was ball movement, which ranks with team defense and superstar wattage as the requisite X factors for a championship ballclub. In Kobe, Gasol and Odom, LA has the perfect front line for the new hand-checking rules, a trio that can all tussle in the paint and extend their games out 17 feet (for Kobe of course it is beyond the 3-pt arc). Each has the combination of height and quickness to be a nightmare matchup one-on-one, so if all decide to sling the rock to the open man, it is difficult to imagine how they are stopped. Then again, they just got through with four games with the Nugs, who can make anyone look good on offense.

    In the underground series that nobody watched, the Magic dispatched the Raps in 5, which makes perfect sense when you consider that there is nobody on Toronto’s roster who can match up with Dwight Howard. And yes, it really is that simple.

    Spurs and Jazz on the verge

    I make no bones about rooting hard for the Houston Rockets in their series with the Jazz. I’ve always regarded Yao as the most overrated NBA player this side of Vince Carter, and so when Houston keep ratcheting up their 22-game winning streak after Yao went down, I egotistically felt validated and started paying attention to what they were doing. And I fell in love with the way rooks Luis Scola and Carl Landry muck it up in the paint at both ends of the court, and noticed the parallels between Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett–their mixture of breathtaking talent and self-effacing teamwork. And Shane Battier needs to be on the USA Olympic Team, as he combines the best of the European style (smart in the half court, good from beyond the arc, passes well without a lot of fanfare) with the American grit of tenacious D. I knew in my head Houston would probably not fare well versus the Jazz, especially with Rafer Alston on the shelf for the first two games at home, but my heart went with Houston as I picked them in 7.

    My head was right but my heart is satiated. Houston has played inspiring ball thus far, with Landry recovering from a slow start to deliver a key block to win Game 3 on the road, this after Carlos Boozer knocked out his tooth with a forearm that the refs didn’t even whistle. Battier has been marvelous and McGrady is a wonderfully tortured soul, sloe-eyed and pretending implacability as the emotions race across his face. It’s just that the Jazz have the matchup that matters, in this case at the point position. Deron Williams gives the impression that he can abuse Alston off the dribble whenever he feels like it. In Game 4, Rick Carlisle said as much before D-Will turned him into a prophet with a pair of almost-casual crunchtime drives to the hoop. Alston simply doesn’t have the bulk to deter Williams, so no matter how much Scola and Landry and Mutombo negate Boozer–which they have, far more than Yao could ever dream–Utah can get to the rack.

    It’s been said many times, but having Kyle Korver along with Okur to stretch the defense makes it absolutely imperative that the opposing point at least throw Williams off stride a bit. If and when the Jazz get by Houston (and I can’t emotionally throw the Rockets under the bus yet), it will be interesting to see how Derek Fisher fares, not to mention Jordan Farmar. The Jazz need a monster series from their point guard to counteract LA’s advantage almost everywhere else, but they just might get it.

    Meanwhile, as someone who grew up in Boston and spent his boyhood watching the Celts rack up 11 rings in 13 years (yeah, I’m that old, and yeah it was as much fun as it sounds–why do you think I write about hoops?), I’ve got to say that with each passing year,
    the Spurs give me more and more vintage Celtic flashbacks. They aren’t exact matches, of course, but it is hard not to notice the similarities between Bill Russell and Tim Duncan, or John Havilcek and Manu Ginobili. You never hear Tony Parker get mentioned as one of the game’s great point guards, yet there is he, dismantling opponents in the playoffs–ditto Sam and KC Jones, back in the day. As for the coaches, well, Red Auerbach and Gregg Popovich both have an asshole streak that gets transferred into a virtue on the sideline. In Game 3 against the Suns, Oberto didn’t rotate over to stop a layup, allowing Phoenix to pull to 27-14, down 13 instead of 15, late in the first quarter. Pops immediately called a timeout and chewed Oberto up and down.

    Think about that for a moment. Or think about Duncan, Ginobili and Parker in crunch time–or, hell, Robert Horry. You think the Suns have three more wins in them to take the Spurs four in a row?

    A eulogy for Phoenix, but not for Dallas

    I feel badly for Steve Nash, one of the classiest players in recent times, and an amazing competitor who more than anybody has had to sublimate his game since the Shaq trade. I go with the conventional wisdom that the Shaq deal both doomed the Suns to an earlier exit than they otherwise might have achieved with the Matrix, and was still a worthwhile gamble for Steve Kerr to have attempted, given that it also marginally increased their chances of winning it all for a roster that is running out of time. So, kudos to Kerr for having the stones to make the swap, but let’s remember that the flameout of the Suns was utterly predictible. All these jackasses who claimed the Suns would beat the Spurs are now blaming Mike D’Antoni, as if this particular coach has ever played any other way but to exploit opponents who had guys like Shaq on the floor. Do people really want to blame D’Antoni for the way the Spurs have destroyed Phoenix on the pick and roll during this series? I seem to recall a pretty good coach, name of Phil Jackson, who couldn’t get Shaq to play the pick and roll either. It requires a lot of stop and go, plant and pivot, and that is something a man of Shaq’s size had difficulty with before he was old and had to work hard to stay in shape.

    But back to Nash: Does anybody else miss the freelancing Nash who flew down the floor, dribbling like a dervish, deciding which hand he was going to use for a delicious bounce pass to a fellow-flying teammate for a showtime slam? Does anybody else miss the frenetic pace that discombobulated opponents and gave the advantage to the selfless passer and deadly long-range shooter who would stick the trey if you sped to guard the hoop and shimmied his way into the paint if you stopped at the arc, secure in the knowledge at least two teammates, and maybe three, were perched at various points outside the arc to take advantage of the driive and kick? The presence of Shaq, and the emergence of Amare Stoudamire’s terrifying midrange game, has pretty much taken the magic out of Nash’s hands, making it extremely difficult for him to build up the rhythms and patterns that bedevil those guarding him. Now when the Suns need Nash to come up with something miraculous, it is totally outside their normal flow of play, and that flow was always Nash’s (and D’Antoni’s) secret weapon. Too bad. Don’t rip Nash or D’Antoni for this debacle; hey, don’t even rip Kerr or Shaq, who have done all they can to turn flax into gold this season down in the desert. But it just ain’t gonna happen.

    There is no way I am going to wax rhapsodically in a similar fashion about the way the Mavericks have destroyed their team. The Jason Kidd trade was stupidity incarnate. Consider that the only "defense" people had of the deal when it was made–smart people anyway, who knew they had to acknowledge Kidd wasn’t what he used to be–was to argue that Kidd really hadn’t lost two or three steps on defense, he just became unmotivated in New Jersey. Ah, I see, he’s not old, just a malingerer.

    No, he’s old. As I’ve said a few times already on this site, he’s not worth Diop and Harris straight up, without the two draft picks. In fact Dallas is old, and unless Stackhouse and Terry shoot lights out beside Dirk in the next few games, they are going down hard, soon to be dismantled. Too bad for Avery Johnson, who did a marvelous job hatching a Maginot Line defense in place of the unsuccessful traps in an effort to stop Chris Paul. And it has worked the past two games. The problem is that Erick Dampier can’t carry Tyson Chandler’s jockstrap, putting pressure on Dirk to rebound as well as score and distribute. That and the fact that Stackhouse and Josh Howard are wilting under pressure, giving the lie to all those citations about the Mavs’ playoff experience–Dallas is experienced like Hillary Clinton is experienced.

    Even if I wasn’t in contempt of the Kidd trade, it would be hard to root against the Hornets. Tyson Chandler is the second-best center in the NBA behind Dwight Howard; better than Yao, certainly, and everything that Marcus Camby is supposed to be. He allows Chris Paul to gamble on defense (or take a play or two off) out on the perimeter, is able to rotate over when the iffy MoPete and Peja lose their man, and has tremendous, almost telepathic, communication with David West when protecting the paint. Then you’ve got heroes coming off the bench–Pargo for 30? The rook Wright in Game 4? Even Peja isn’t choking. So, while I’ll shed a virtual tear for the exit of Nash and (the soon to be scapegoated?) D’Antoni, I’ll cheer the demise of Dallas (despite my affection for Mark Cuban).