The Rake Magazine

Author: Britt Robson

  • 2008 Major League Baseball Forecast—National League

    Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images


    National League East

    1. New York Mets

    Johan Santana pitching in huge Shea Stadium without a DH in the opposing lineup sounds like a recipe for 20-25 wins. Depth and quality in middle relief will allow Pedro Martinez to become a dominant 6 inning #2 starter (if manager Willie Randolph is smart), and John Maine is ready to emerge as a solid #3. Offensively, the top 4 is pretty damn good–Reyes/Castillo/Wright/Beltran–but after that its seniors in decline (Delgado, Alou) and mediocrity (Ryan Church?! What’s the skeleton that got Lastings Milledge traded?). Brian Schneider is an upgrade over ‘roided Paul Loduca, but the Mets will win a weak division on the strength of their pitching and troika of stars (the top four minus Castillo).

    2. Atlanta Braves

    If they can stay healthy, they’ll be tough. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are good table-setters and a decent keystone combo; then come a quartet of mashers in Chipper, Teixeria (in a contract year, no less), a bulked up Francoeur who actually started taking a pitch or two last year, and the young moose McCann. But can Chipper stay healthy enough for his usual 125-130 games, let alone, 162, at age 36? More to the point, how many quality starts does the impressive but aged starting rotation of Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine and Mike f’ing Hampton have left? The bullpen is a little shaky and Mark Kotsay is no Andruw in center. I’m guessing Chipper pulls his normal duty (and produces accordingly), Teixeria and Francoeur are monsters, and everyone but Hampton hangs tough in the rotation, with Jaar Jurrjens (acquired in the Renteria deal with Detroit) a plus at #5. They’ll be in the wild card hunt before losing out to someone in the NL West.

    3. Philadelphia Phillies

    My oh my can they hit the ball, helped out by that bandbox home ballpark. No first baseman will knock in more runs than Ryan Howard; ditto Chase Utley at second, who enjoys the largest offensive advantage over his peers than players at any other position. MVP Jimmy Rollins is set for another 125 runs scored provided his hammies don’t snap, and Geoff Jenkins and Pedro Feliz are offensive upgrades at the bottom of the order in platoon with Jason Werth and Glen Dobbs. But what kind of pitching is there behind young ace Cole Hamels? Why would this be the year Brett Myers puts it all together? There’s a much better chance this is the year Jamie Moyers finally isn’t crafty enough to get people out varying speeds between 75-85 mph and spotting the corners. Kyle Kendrick? Adam Eaton? Does that sound like a playoff staff to you? And who is the genius who thinks Brad Lidge closing at Citizens Bank is a good idea?

    4. Florida Marlins

    The Marlins rebuild their roster for the same reason people pick scabs, because it hurts so good. The latest rip-it-raw swap brought them Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for their best hitter (Miguel Cabrera) and pitcher (Dontrelle Willis) and will pay dividends (and save money) in about two years. By then, five-tool shortstop Hanley Ramirez and emerging star Jeremy Hermida will probably be on the trading block. Like Washington, Florida has no pitching to speak of besides closer Kevin Gregg, unless Miller develops in a hurry. Unlike Washington, there are a quartet of proven bats (Uggla, Willingham besides Hanley and Hermida), a breakout candidate in Mike Jacobs, and an intriguing comeback in the making with Jorge Cantu. Seventy-five wins would be an accomplishment.

    5. Washington Nationals

    Yes, there are some head cases that GM Jim Bowden has added to the ballclub, chief among them the wonderfully named duo of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. Together with hot corner stud Ryan Zimmerman, they will determine whether the Nats are a team on the rise or whether a new stadium is the only excitement. The pitching staff is horrible, and without the spacious confines of RFK Stadium to protect them this season.

    National League Central

    1. Chicago Cubs

    The Cubs will win a weak divison because of the depth of their starting rotation. Carloz Zambrano throws too many pitches but is a rubber-armed horse who can handle the work. Rich Hill and Ted Lilly are a pair of nasty lefties, and Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster are higher-class retreads than one usually finds in the hindquarters of #s 4 + 5. Bobby Howry, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol all possess quality stuff but does Wood have the stamina, Howry enough left, or Marmol the maturity to be the closer, or will it a baton-passing committee. Offensively, you’ve got to figure Soriano and Lee will have better years, Ramirez is uber reliable, and the 30-year old Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will have Cubs fans gleefully spitting in each others’ faces pronouncing his name. Center fielder Felix Pie and catcher Geovany Soto look like a bright future up the middle, but the double play duo of Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa could use a makeover.

    2. Milwaukee Brewers

    Last year’s Brewers became one of my favorite teams. Portly Prince Fielder swatting home runs to left, right, and center yet finding his .618 slugging percentage only second best on the team thanks to the .634 posted by the Hebrew Hammer and reigning Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun. The impossibly lanky Corey Hart knocking 24 dingers and swiping 23 bases as a six-and-a-half-foot leadoff man. JJ Hardy hitting a ton early and a few feathers’ worth down the stretch. Turnbow and Cordero tossing gas in the late innings. And yet the Brewers faded down the stretch and finished a titch above .500 at 83-79. The reason was defense: Fielder and Braun were as bad with the glove as they were accomplished with the bat. Despite the acquisition of Mike Cameron to vacuum up flies in center, swapping Braun and Bill Hall at outfield and third base isn’t going to get it done, and ancient Jason Kendall is about as bad as roly-poly Johnny Estrada behind the plate. Cordero is gone as the closer, replaced by the flammable Eric Gagne, and the rotation relies too much on young ace-to-be Yovani Gallardo and injury-prone Ben Sheets. Nevertheless, Fielder and Braun will continue to pound the ball, Rickie Weeks is due for his injury-free breakout at second, and Hart will prove last year was no fluke. Once again they’ll be loads of fun to watch and finish second behind the Cubs.

    3. Cincinnati Reds

    Another potent offense, especially if new manager Dusty Baker can change his spots and give heralded rooks like 1B Joey Votto and OF Jay Bruce 500 at-bats apiece. Alas, Bruce starts the season in the minors and Votto may platoon with Scott Hatteberg, a walking anti-Moneyball argument. Brandon Phillips and Jeff Keppinger both have some sock and decent gloves in the middle infield (although the Reds’ bandbox ballpark overrates Phillips’ vaunted offense), and Adam Dunn is a walk-homer-or-strikeout suspense machine who churns up divots trying to play left field. Will Ken Griffey Jr. maintain his improbable semi-healthy ways? Can Bronson Arroyo rebound will Aaron Harang maintains to provide the Reds with a bona fide 1-2 punch in the rotation? Can the ex-Brewer Cordero, a notorious flyball pitcher, retain his sanity (and that of his manager) closing in the Great American Ballpark? And can Votto and Bruce get a chance to compete for Rookie of the Year? If more than half of these questions are answered yes, the Reds will leapfrog the Brewers for second and perhaps even bag a pennant if the Cubs falter.

    4. Pittsburgh Pirates

    If they aren’t the most futile franchise in professional sports over the past two decades, than other franchises are certa
    inly losing quietly. But there’s hope here (not that we haven’t thought that before) in the trio of still-young arms in the starting rotation, led by lefty ace-in-the-making Tom Gorzelanny and buttressed by fireballing righty Ian Snell, with lefty Paul Maholm a decent #3 who won 10 games for a team that only trimphed 69 times last season. This is a make-or-break year for once promising lefty Zach Duke and Matt Morris probably doesn’t have anything but guile left. But the bullpen is in good hands with Matt Capps and Damaso Marte–don’t look now, but the Bucs have the second best pitching staff in the division. The lineup isn’t fearsome by any means, especially if Jason Bay doesn’t rebound from last year’s pratfall and 1B Adam Laroche gets off to another miserable start. I think both will rebound, Freddie Sanchez will continue to rake and Ronnie Paulino will develop into a quality catcher. But the rest of the lineup is forgettable. Every journey begins with a single step. Pittsburgh’s is fourth place.

    5. Houston Astros

    Their 4-7 hitters (Berkman/Carlos Lee/Tejada/Wiggington) sport classic beer-league physiques (I’m assuming an unjuiced Tejada flabs out a bit) and I’m anticipating that one or more of them will go with a major injury this season as a result. Roy Oswalt is a gritty sonavabitch on the mound and Jose Valverde gives them a closer unscarred by postseason failure, but overall the pieces don’t add up here. Hunter Pence and catcher J.R. Towles are potentially exciting young players but the Astros are neither contending nor rebuilding. They’re stuck.

    6. St. Louis Cardinals

    If Albert Pujols defies the odds and plays like Albert Pujols for an entire season, last place will be a foolish prediction for the Cards. But the deafening whispers are that Pujols still isn’t right from last year’s assortment of injuries, and if a dreadfully slow starting lineup with an injury-besotted pitching staff starts out 12-26 or something, Pujols may go under the knife in May. Then last place is inevitable.

    National League West

    1. Arizona Diamondbacks

    Their lineup is studded with young talent, their pitching staff is loaded even if Randy Johnson can’t come back, and together that should be enough to squeak by in the NL’s toughest divsion. Leading off is Chris Young, who hit 32 homers and stole 27 bases as 23-year old rookie. At short is 25-year old Stephen Drew, who knocked in 60 runs despite hitting an anemic .238. At the bottom of the order is Justin Upton, age 20, an offensive stick of dynamite who many scouts openly tout as a future superstar. It’s unreasonable to expect another monster year from vet Eric Byrnes, but corner infielders Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds should compensate by upping their power numbers this season. And then there’s the pitching staff, led by arguably the game’s best 1-2 rotation combo, sinkerballer Brandon Webb and last year’s AL All Star game starter Dan Haren (acquired in a deal with Oakland). Micah Owings allowed a very respectable 1.28 WHIP last year (especially for a #3 starter) and lefty Doug Davis is an asset slotted at #4. Can the Big Unit loom large once again? If so, the Snakes could win 100 games.

    2. Colorado Rockies

    The Diamondbacks are best and the Giants are worst, but the middle three teams could finish in any order, and the best of the trio will earn the wild card. I’ll go with the Rockies because they’re not as young as people might imagine (and hence have more players in their prime) and because the fun generated by last year’s tsunami surge to the World Series has probably been a great off-season motivator. Matt Holliday might be ready to take over for Vlad Guerrero as the best hitting outfielder in baseball, and Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe are Vanilla personalities with Cherries Garcia rbi totals. Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki deserved to be ROY instead of Ryan Braun by dint of grabbing the mantle of team leader and not letting a slow start at the plate deter fabulous defensive play throughout the season. Oh, and he came on enough to knock in 99 runs. This is a Rockies team that can hit on the road as well as at Coors (which isn’t quite the high-scoring palace it used to be before they put they deadened the balls in the humidor). Nevertheless, I put them behind the Diamondbacks, and in dogfight with the Dodgers and Pads, because they have the division’s fourth best pitching. Count me as dubious that closer Manny Corpas will post 2.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP again, or that manager Clint Hurdle can make another stretch run with everyone in the pen pitching lights out and two kids, Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez, duplicating last year’s numbers. Put simply, the Rockies caught lightning in a bottle from August through October last year, and the hitting was more legit than the pitching. But Steve Francis had arguably the best season of any hurler in Rockies’ history, and that was real. Righty Aaron Cook should stay healthy, and even if Corpas takes a step back, he’ll be pretty good. Whoever wins the NL East or Central won’t want to face this team in the playoffs.

    3. San Diego Padres

    The conventional wisdom is that the Padres are all-pitch, no-hit, but there is more spark in that lineup than the conventional thinkers realize. Playing half their games in the toughest park for hitters in all of baseball, shortstop Kahlil Greene swatted 27 homers and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff overcame a horrible start to launch another 18. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had 30. Greene is 28 this year, the other two 26; all figure to take another step before hitting their prime. And Josh Bard likewise is a promising hitter due for an upgrade in his rbi’s. The problem is age in a spacious outfield, specifically erstwhile stars Jim Edmonds in center and Brian Giles in right, both now well past their apex. They will test the patience of current Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy, the tall and talented Chris Young, and the gifted but frequently injured third starter, Randy Wolf. Greg Maddux is your everyday 347-game winner as #4 starter, and Justin Germano rounds out a deep rotation pitching in very friendly confines at Petco. In the bullpen, the abiding question is whether Trevor Hoffman’s late season meltdown finally marks the beginning of the end of his Hall of Fame career. If so, superb setup men Cla Meredith and Heath Bell have to prove one of them can take it to the next level.

    4. Los Angeles Dodgers

    I was tempted to put the Dodgers second out of affection for new skipper Joe Torre, freed from the once and future Bronx Zoo at Yankee Stadium. But despite a bevy of promising youngsters–especially 1b James Loney, Of Matt Kemp and 3B Andy Laroche–and the league’s best catcher in 25-year old Russell Martin, LA is still a year or two away from truly blossoming. I mean, this is a team whose home run leader was Jeff Kent, who hit 20–half his age. Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal are go-go speedsters at the top of the order, but giving fat contracts to a couple of poor man’s Maury Wills isn’t the way to win in 2008. Free agent signee Andrux Jones will help at both the plate and in the field–expect a big bounceback from his .222/26/94 disappointment. And the Big Blue has the kind of deep and talented bullpen that Torre craved and never had his final years in New York, what with closer Takashi Saito and lefty-righty setup men Joe Beimel and Big Jonathan Broxton. Like the lineup, the rotation has depth and talent but no drop-dead superstar. The Dodgers shape up to be the best 4th place team in baseball.

    5. San Francisco Giants

    Speaking of all-pitch, no-hit, the post-Bonds Giants have the worst batting order in all of baseball, the decrepit keystone combo of Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel, has-beens like Rich Aurilia and Randy Winn, and either Aaron Rowand or Bengie Molina batting cleanup. But the pitching is rock solid, with budding star Tim Lincecum and tough-luck kid Matt Cain (7-16 despite a 3.65 ERA and 1.26 WHIP) threatening to supplant big bucks Barry Zito as the ace. Make no mistake, howev
    er: This is a baseball team going nowhere fast, stuck in purgatory as their karmic payback for enabling Bonds.

     

     

  • The Three Pointer: Back To Earth

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Bill Baptist/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #70, Road Game #34: Minnesota 86, Houston 97

    Season Record: 18-52

    1. Stubborn Smallball

    Let the record show that Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes tied for the "best" plus/margin (-4) among the 9 Wolves who played in tonight’s 11-point loss to Houston, that Luis Scola had the Rockets’ only minus at -1 and that Dikembe Mutombo was second-worst among the Houston’s starters at plus +3. Despite all these numbers, you can’t convince me that the Wolves were better off playing smallball versus this Houston team. They were soundly beaten on the boards, 58-38, lost the points in the paint battle by double-digits (sorry, can’t find the numbers for it) and also yielded more second-chance points due mostly to the plethora of Rockets putbacks by the bigs.

    The Rockets’ front line of Mutombo/Scola/Shane Battier finished with 14 offensive rebounds; the Wolves front trio of Jefferson/Gomes/Kirk Snyder had 19 defensive rebounds–a weak plus +5 rebound margin cleaning their defensive glass. And don’t look to the backcourt for bailouts, because these Rockets battle and box out. Randy Foye and Marko Jaric totaled 3 rebounds *combined" while Tracy McGrady had 11 on his own.

    It would have been nice to see Chris Richard or Michael Doleac matched up with Mutombo instead of Jefferson, who shot 9-21 FG and was appropriately pissed that he wasn’t getting enough touches at times in the second half. As much as I love Ryan Gomes, I’d much rather see Jefferson scrapping for rebounds against Scola, the hands-down Rookie of the Year (it’s not close) and one leather-tough hombre in the paint, who snagged a career-high 18 boards going against Gomes. Put Gomes out on his stylistic mentor, Battier, who had a rotten game on paper–3-12 FG, 1-7 3pt, 5 turnovers–and yet played such superb help defense against Jefferson and in deterring penetration and in rotating over that you understand how a team coached by Rick Adelman–a great offensive coach–is doing such a good job limiting points.

    A legit center beside Jefferson and Gomes would kick Kirk Snyder back to the backcourt to split minutes with Marko Jaric guarding McGrady who played like he was in significant pain for most of the night (he was, he has a sprained shoulder and wasn’t even expected to play) but rose to the occasion at crunchtime. More on that in a minute. The point is, Snyder and Jaric and McCants in the backcourt along with Randy Foye. And if you really are trying to win the game, forget about the confidence-depleted, late-season thin man Corey Brewer trying to stop T-Mac, who almost literally shrugged him off a couple of times going up for jumpers. Jaric, who did such a beautiful job hounding McGrady during the nail-biter the teams played at Target Center, was a little less effective tonight, but probably a titch better than Snyder.

    Bottom line, if Mutombo insists on guarding Jefferson, force Battier to run around with Gomes on the perimeter, spot up Doleac for little step-out pops against Scola, or have Chris Richard sealing Scola off the boards.

    It probably wouldn’t matter. In Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry, the Rockets have a couple more sweat-equity ‘tweeners coming off the bench who are better than Richard and Chris Smith (who combined for 2-5 FG and just 2 rebounds in more than 25 minutes of collective action). The string of patsies are temporarily over. You can see how this ballclub could afford to let Snyder languish on the pine without so much as a second or third look.

    Speaking of which…

    2. The Uneven Adventures of Kirk Snyder

    The guy with the Mr. Potato Head nose had a sparkling, maybe even thrilling, first quarter. It was the hackneyed story of the neglected dude traded away and now come to wreak vengeance and expose the traitor traders for their blind stupidity. Even with Battier on him (although Battier wasn’t necessarily making him the top priority), Snyder began by getting to the rim–his shots were layups, dunks, putbacks, and thus some free throws to boot. But better yet, he freelanced from penetration and maintained that drive and kick game he had flashed against the hapless Knicks last time out, doling dimes to Gomes, Jefferson, Foye and Gomes again to finish the tightly contested (23-24) first quarter with a triple double flirtation: 7 points, 4 rebounds (half the team’s total), and 4 assists (out of the team’s 7).

    Alas, the thing Snyder had the most of after that whirlwind first period was turnovers–5 of them, to total six miscues for the game. He also added a mere 5 points, two rebounds and two assists in the final three quarters (in which he played 18:13 to Brewer’s 17:47 after going all 12 minutes of the first) to finish with a respectable line, if not exactly the triumphant payback he’d hoped. But the numbers aren’t usually the story anyway with Snyder. He seems to play with a little bit of mean streak, and I vacillate between liking and frowning at that side of his makeup. On the one hand he makes the hustle plays that we all want to pin gold stars on Brewer for accomplishing. In the first half tonight, he had enough juice and foresight to hightail after Marko Jaric after Jaric had made a steal and subsequently blown the contested layup (big surprise, eh?), slamming home Jaric’s too-strong finish. Conversely, there was a play during Snyder’s second half turnover spree where, after the faulty pass, he flew down the floor trailing a Rockets’ 3-on-1 drill, and it took two nifty bits of execution–a feed back from T-Mac under the hoop to a driving Scola, who double pumped under Snyder’s flying block attempt to lay it in–to prevent him from making a glorious recovery.

    Coach Wittman clearly likes Snyder’s game, but also knows the downsides. The other day he likened Snyder to McCants, in that both can do stupid things due to overweening aggression, but since the vice and virtue of it are so close together, you have to accept the whole package. And after the Wolves had failed to score for about two and a half minutes early in the third period, we saw the vice and virtue collide as one–Snyder took the ball right up the gut and challenged Mutombo with an audacious slam-dunk attempt. The shot was missed–Snyder left his feet just inside the foul line–but he drew the foul on Mutombo even as he was driving his forearm into Mutombo’s jaw.

    Maybe everything that happened after that looked more soap operatic than it was–it’s hard to know watching on television. But the 41-year old African, who had been honored at halftime for his amazing humanitarian work building hospitals in his native Congo and other countries, didn’t take kindly to the shot in the kisser and began jawing at Snyder from his spot in the lane as Snyder shot the free throws. And right there, Snyder went back to being the contemptible scrub, called out by the distinguished vet, in the eyes of his former teammates. He missed the second free throw and began to get picked on–McGrady and Battier both went at him when he was playing D, and at the other end, his passes were getting picked off more frequently. But whether or not there was a little extra emotion out there, it’s unimpeachable that Snyder already has delivered more dividends–and the promise of more still–than the man for whom he was traded, the immature Gerald Green. But it is also true that, unlike the Wolves, Houston has a lot of guard-dog athletes that made Snyder reasonably redundant.

    3. A Few More Quick Things

    Randy Foye played his worst game in quite awhile and simply seemed mentally out of sorts the entire contest. He chucked his first ill-advised jumper 14 seconds into the game, and, aside from a really pretty reverse back to either Gomes or Jaric in which he dribbled left and then spun and tossed it back to right elbow, h
    e had the sort of pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey shot selection reminiscent of Troy Hudson, both in shooting quickly on the shot clock, turning down some good looks, and taking a heat check after one basket (and that one was a lucky bounce that went way up and fell through the hole). He finished 2-8 FG, with 4 assists and 5 turnovers and but one rebound, far below his recent averages. No, this is not a call for Foye to be labelled a bust at the point–he had a bad game. Just as I needed two or three good games to bump me off the notion that Foye is overmatched running an offense, I’ll need this lack of court instincts reprised a couple or three more games before the serious doubts creep back in.

    Rashad McCants likewise had a mostly off-kilter evening, until he finally rediscovered his stroke early in the 4th quarter, exploding for 7 points in the first 2:27 of the period to cut a 60-69 deficit to 70-72 with 9:33 to play. The comeback was doomed when Shaddy chose to try and make incidental contact into a whistle, awkwardly chucking a long airball, which Houston converted into a McGrady jumper on the next possession. Once again we have a situation where McCants rallies the ballclub partway back. He has a knack for turning potential blowouts into more engaging defeats–and no, that’s not a compliment. It is always fun to watch him stroke the long jumper or negotiate the thicket on a drive to the hoop–he leads the team is visually pleasing points by a huge margin–but this 1-7 FG through 3 followed by 5-8 FG in the fourth is something we’ve seen before. What we haven’t seen, aside from a very early win over Sacramento, are that glittering stroke and those creative treks to the rim spelling the clearcut difference between a victory and a defeat.

    Only caught a little of the Phoenix-Celts game, but what a different enviroment for Kevin Garnett. Like everyone else, he abused Amare Stoudamire’s matador D and banged in 30 points, but can anyone imagine him playing more than 30 minutes without a single defensive rebound while here in Minnesota? Or that his team would win by 20 over one of the supposedly elite NBA teams?

    The San Antonio tilt is not televised except for League Pass and I’ll be out of town on another assignment during the Sunday home game against Utah. I’ll throw up an open thread for Sunday evening for those who want to chime in.

  • The Three Pointer: 3-1 for Patsy Week

    AP Photo by A.J. Olmscheid

    Game #68, Road Game #33: Minnesota 113, Indiana 124

    Game #69, Home Game #36: New York 93, Minnesota 114

    Season Record: 18-51

    1. Illusions of Mediocrity

    Let’s start with the good news. Over the last five or six weeks, Timberwolves coach Randy Wittman has challenged the team’s three most prominent building blocks to upgrade their respective games in specific ways. For Al Jefferson, it has been better defense; for Randy Foye, more overt point-guard related behavior; for Rashad McCants, less holding of the ball and more dish or penetration. And all three have made tangible progress in these areas, with the sort of slow, steady improvement that creates optimism about the future. Much more than in the previous three seasons, the Timberwolves do indeed look like they are putting specific pieces in place and rebuilding the right way–from the ground up.

    But here’s the nasty chaser: Despite its 13-17 record over the past two months, and 8-10 mark since Foye claimed the point guard slot in the starting lineup, the Wolves continue to be routinely trounced when playing quality ballclubs. Over the past 30, their record is 9-5 against sub-.500 teams, 1-0 against the .500 Philadelphia 76ers, and 3-12 versus teams that have won more than they’ve lost. In the 18 since Foye took the point guard reins, those figures are 6-3 versus sub.500, 1-0 against Philly, and 1-7 against over-.500 ballclubs.

    This week offered a pretty decent view of whether the Wolves could achieve mediocrity. They faced four sub-.500 opponents. Three of them are absolutely horrible ballclubs at the present time: A Clippers team with Chris Kamen out, Al Thornton dinged, and Sam Cassell released (not to mention Elton Brand, shelved for the season with an injury); a Memphis team that unloaded Pau Gasol for nickels on the dollar; and a wretched Knicks outfit that is destined to produce at least two or three best-selling accounts of the abject stupidity, mendacity and incompetence of their dysfunction. Almost by default, then, the gut check game for the Wolves this past week came on the road against an Indiana Pacers team still improbably in the hunt for an Eastern Conference playoff spot despite what at the time was a record of 27-41.

    To Minnesota’s credit, the club took care of business against the weakest trio of patsies. This is not to be discounted: I think it’s fair to say that two months ago, the mark versus these same Clips/Grizz/Knicks would have been at best 2-1 and probably 1-2 (there is probably no point in their season when they couldn’t have beaten these professional imposters known as the Knicks). But the loss to Indiana is just as meaningful a gauge of the apparently limited ceiling of this club. The Pacers play horrible defense, and with Jermaine O’Neal out, the don’t have a reliable low-post threat. Yet they were able to blitz the Wolves for 66 points in the first half, largely because Minnesota’s "small" lineup was still too slow for the rapid ball movement that usually resulted in made treys–the Pacers racked up 16 assists (6 by backup point guard Travis Diener, who was plus +18 in 15:20) and Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy nailed 7-8 from beyond the arc. All this in one half.

    Meanwhile, the ever-underrated Jeff Foster and the relatively tall lineup that enabled Indiana to bring size to the double-teams frustrated Al Jefferson into just 5 points. The other Wolves didn’t necessarily pick up the slack. although a stupid foul in the final seconds of the half enabled Foye to hit three FTs and finish with 12 at intermission. Jefferson, Foye and McCants were a combined 5-20 FG. The Wolves were down 17 at the break, and, despite some gunner heroics from McCants in the second half, were doomed by Jefferson’s foul trouble and the ongoing inability to the Pacers perimeter game.

    Aside from building a little confidence, the Knicks game was a waste of time. There hasn’t been a worse performance by a ballclub thus far this season than what the Knicks showed at Target Center Saturday night–no mean feat when you consider the Wolves are half of every matchup there. All the hullaballoo about Jefferson’s improved defense looked silly when David Lee and Malik Rose took turns abusing him down low. (After blocking four shots and taking a charge in the first half of the Pacer game, Jefferson played more like the guy leery of picking up cheap fouls a la the second half in Indiana.) But it didn’t matter that Lee and Rose were a combined 14-19 FG (led by Lee’s perfect 6 for 6), because "point guard" Jamal Crawford was busy chucking up 19 field goal attempts all by his lonesome and making only 6.

    Jeffeson’s weak D was not the only example of how the three and a half quarters of garbage time that comprised the Knicks game allowed the Wolves to engage in half-assed habits without penalty. Take Shaddy McCants’s Jekyll-and-Hyde halves versus Indiana and New York. On Friday, McCants was 0-5 FG in the first half, and defended poorly as well. But his saving grace was ball movement, with 4 assists, including a gorgeous bounce pass to Chris Richard, in just 8:48 of action. Then, in the second half, McCants went off for 8-12 FG, including a couple of unbelievable shots over the Pacers’ tall perimeter pressure. After he nailed a pair of treys to bring the Wolves from 17 down to 82-93 after three, Indiana ratcheted up the coverage, especially when Jefferson was sidelined with foul trouble. McCants squeezed off two Js he had no business releasing, let alone converting, as he went up in perimeter traffic: the first a step back two-pointer to make it 90-103 with 7 minutes-plus to play and the other a prayer-bomb for three to pretty-up the margin to 106-120 with about two minutes to play.

    This is the rub with McCants, that he gets hot when it doesn’t matter. While that may be so thus far, particularly compared to Jefferson and Foye, there is no denying his passing and overall teamwork have taken a quantum leap forward lately, which is why his second half of the Knicks game was so negatively funky. After some shooting practice against New York’s nonexistent defense–he shot 9-13 FG, giving him 41 points in the four quarters comprised by the Indy second half and the New York first half–he clanked for 1-8 FG in the second half, making him 1-13 FG in the wrap-around halves to that 41-point middle. The difference yesterday was, zero assists in 16:46 of the second half. Asked to explain the difference between the two Knicks halves, Wittman replied that "he settled more. He attacked in the first half, and got to the free throw line for those 15-foot, 18-foot shots. In the second half it was more threes." And less vision. Oh well, at least he wasn’t holding the ball–just chucking it.

    To return to square one from our wayward path on this point, the Wolves now face six straight opponents with over-.500 records. By the lights of even their recent "surge" (and yes, the word match is intentional), they figure to win but one of these games, going into the final 7 with 19 victories. The draft pick isn’t going to the Clips, in other words, but karmic intervention will be necessary (or very shrewd talent evaluation) to land a collegiate or foreign-born stud.

    2. What’s Needed

    Different folks have different ideas about the abiding priority for this club, in part because there is clearly more than one glaring need. I maintain that it is a defensive-oriented center who can step out and hit a midrange jumper on occasion. And no, I don’t mean Craig Smith, who has upped his quotient of 8-to-15 footers in response to advice from the team’s braintrust on how to be a better complement to Jefferson on the front line. I mean a center, who can snuff David Lee when he gets past Jefferson on the baseline, and slide ov
    er to cover when Big Al is inevitably too slow returning from the show on the pick and roll. Is it a coincidence that as Jefferson’s blocks and defensive focus has gone up that his scoring has dipped some? Don’t know, and don’t want him to get a pass at the defensive end, but when someone is as gifted at putting the ball in the hole from the paint as Jefferson is, you want to ride that horse as much as possible. A guy like Marcus Camby would be ideal–tremendous on-ball and help defender who mostly shoots midrange jumpers–but since Cambys don’t grow on trees, any large, stanuch defender who can keep defenses even a little honest will do nicely.

    Personally, my second priority would be an uber-athletic small forward. I resist a strong internal pull for lanky, defensive-oriented point guard–a Rondo type would really be good–because Randy Foye has shown enough at the point in recent weeks to see if he can continue to develop. Make no mistake: Foye at the point is a vital part of the Wolves’ foundation in that if it doesn’t work out, the rebuilding scheme could easily come tumbling down. If Foye is ensconced at the point, Brewer and Gomes can swing from 2-3 and 3-4 respectively without squeezing McCants out of the picture because you need to play Foye more as a combo 2. If Foye can’t hack it serving a majority of his minutes at the point, McCants is more redundant, and Brewer, Gomes and Jefferson must contend with more smallball or fall by the wayside. A stud small forward, on the other hand, makes Gomes a valuable 7th man at both forward slots and lets Brewer defer shots and score more in transition running the floor with Foye and the new guy.

    Teams don’t do well in the playoffs going 6-10 and 6-7 in the frontcourt. And they don’t do well without someone who can both pounce in transition and run the half-court with aplomb in the backcourt. That’s why, even during their recent hot streak, the Wolves are losing at least 5 out of 6 to over-.500 opponents.

    3. Quick Hits

    Jefferson’s family was here for the Knicks’ game (and presumably for Easter). I assumed the guy with the very prominent, Al Jeffersonian brow had to be his biological father, but a recent City Pages feature said his father had died. In any case, this guy was impassive; whereas the three females in the group about a half-dozen rows up behind the Wolves’ bench boisterously clapped and hollared for everything pro-Jefferson and -Timberwolves, the father-figure clapped only when Jefferson dished for an assist. And wouldn’t you know it, Big Al set his career high with a half-dozen of those dimes versus the Knicks.

    One thing about Gomes at the 4, he can step out on a big and hit that midrange, and then when the guy comes out to greet him, can put the ball on the floor and create. As Gomes’ confidence in his offense increases, we are seeing more and more of that. Despite his 8 rebounds to go with his game-high 26 points yesterday, however, Gomes is less impressive defending the paint, especially on-ball defense.

    Tough times for the Florida duo. I’ve been on the Chris Richard bandwagon all season, but it is hard to ignore his delayed reaction when a big flashes into the paint on him. He’s a piece of oak in the low block–precious few backing him down are able to sneak through, and must resort to the baby hook or something–but slow to react to good perimeter passing. But Brewer is the real disappointment lately. After displaying pretty savvy shot selection all season, he seems determined not to let his accuracy woes affect him–only to have it affect him by his pulling the trigger too soon (and thus way too foolishly) on the shot clock. His clanking was a significant factor in the snuffed comeback against the Pacers and he hasn’t made more than a third of his shots in four straight games. Worst of all, Kirk Snyder pushing ahead of him in the rotation seems to have affected his Flying Wallendas defensive persona.

    By contrast, Snyder is playing with great confidence and carving out a spot for himself on somebody’s roster next season. An unrestricted free agent in less than 4 weeks, it will be curious to see if he can bag anything more than the $1 M exemption from anyone looking for a relatively hard-nosed 24-year old with an intriguing upside. Snyder barged into the rotation by becoming a hairshirt on Kevin Durant in the February Seattle game. But lately he’s impressed with his ability to get to the rim (and/or the free throw line) via dribble penetration, and his throttle-down mindset when he snags a rebound on the defensive end. He could be a sleeper-steal in the trade for the already cut Gerald Green, or a fleeting footnote in Wolves history.

     

  • The Durable Roots Lexicon of Ray Bonneville

    Like most all country-blues artists, Ray Bonneville doesn’t try to knock your socks off so much as fit you into a comfortable old pair of shoes. But the Canadian native separates himself from singer-songwriter cliches with a slow but steady revelation of his myriad talents. His (mostly electrical) guitar and harmonica work is economical and wise, abetting vocals reminiscent of JJ Cale for their fine-sandpaper tone and conversational aplomb. What cinches these gifts together, and makes Bonneville such a durably consistent pleasure, is his assured yet humble songwriting.

    I’ve only heard two of the man’s six discs, the ones for Red House, Roll it down from 2004 and this year’s Goin’ by feel. Both are unusually user-friendly, the kind of soundtrack that’s jaunty enough to help you cook breakfast or fold the laundry, sufficiently easygoing to climb into the back seat of your brain when other priorities or daydreams emerge, and yet insightful and incisive enough to reward careful listening without a lyric sheet. On each disc, the songs go together, not so much by topic, but, as the second record puts, "by feel." They’re generally plainspoken narratives sewn with the classic instrumental braid of country blues, yet enough care has been invested in the craft to yield different shadings, meanings, and resonant riffs with every new spin.

    Let’s get specific. I love the way Bonneville will occasional tumble for the sheer phonics and punning of songwriting, like the way "Tiptoe Spider" (from Roll it down) is so tiptoe-spidery in its clamber-prancing guitar lines, with the added bonus that the antagonist in the narrative is a fairly creepy character. Or, from the new one, "What Katy Did," which has a birdlike flit–the vocal hopping on the hard vowels while the guitar and bass worry the groove–but also is a case study in trust and intimacy (would you tell a secret?) masquerading as a tale of crime.

    I also love the quality of the marriage between the lyrics and the music. On "Walk With Me" (from Roll it down), for example, the sentiment is one of muted infatuation, a guy tamping down his ecstasy to both keep feigning coolness and to protect his vulnerable heart, perfectly expressed not only in the vocal inflections but the gentle spangles in the blues guitar phrases and the extra dollop of elbow grease in the beats. Most of the time, however, Bonneville dawdles for effect. The wistful slide guitar on "Oxford Town" (Roll it down) is perfectly paced for reverie, and even the New Orleans groove of "You Know What I Mean" (Roll it down) stays with you because it feels like its done at 3/4 speed.

    Goin’ by feel is more spare and New Orleans-centric than Roll it down, and after thinking it didn’t measure up, it’s begun to suck me in. There are obvious tracks like the postcard/valentine "I Am The Big Easy," with its picaresque recitation of dice-rollin’ judges and crawfish boys, and the sleek, cantering rhythm of "Run Josie Run." But lately I’m more taken with the wending "Sabine River," the way it manages to sound simultaneously epic and self-effacing; the taunting edge in the talk-song of "Reckless Feeling;" and the way "Cool Cool Rain" closes the disc with such a palpable sense of relief. They’re all like watercolors–not fancy oils, yet something you don’t mind encountering as part of your regular routine. And I imagine tonight’s (3/21) live show at the Cedar will deepen and expand those impressions.

  • The Three Pointer: 5 out of 7

    AP Photo, by Tom Olmscheid

    Game #67, Home Game #35: Memphis 94, Minnesota 98

    Season Record: 17-50

    1. Jefferson Dominant

    The transformation point of the Wolves’ 98-94 win over Memphis last night was when Al Jefferson willed his team back into contention during the first 7 minutes of the third period after an abysmal first half. Smallball didn’t work for Minnesota in those two periods–Memphis forwards Gay, Miller, and Warrick racked up 32 points and 16 rebounds while Snyder, Gomes, Brewer and Smith amassed just 10 points and 3 boards–but Jefferson, who had 6 of the Wolves’ 15 total rebounds (vs. 32 for the Grizz) in that first half, came out spitting nails. He destroyed Darko Milicic in the paint.

    Simply detailing the line gives you a little flavor of this man-among-boys stretch of play. Jefferson’s offensive rebound on a Randy Foye miss led to two second-chance points via Ryan Gomes’ free throws. Then he got fouled by Rudy Gay and made one of two; cleaned up a Gomes missed layup with a putback slam dunk; hit two more free throws after being fouled by Darko; grabbed a rebound off a Gay miss that eventually led to a Foye bucket; snuffed a Gay layup with a beautiful block; came down and hit a banker in the lane; and then fed Foye for a trey. A grand 3:12 had elapsed, and Jefferson had 7 points, three boards (two on the offensive glass), an assist and a block in keying a 14-2 Wolves run that turned a 14-point halftime deficit into a one-possession game.

    You think he was done? In the ensuing 3:29 after the Memphis timeout, he scored 5 more points, grabbed two more offensive rebounds, and scaled the scaffolding with Gay as the latter drove the baseline and attempted to throw it down, turning him back with an above-the-rim block. When Jefferson laid the ball in off a Foye feed with 4:19 to play in the third, the Wolves had their first tie since 0-0, and Jefferson had 12 points, 4-4 FG, 4-6 FT, four offensive rebounds (and 5 overall) and a pair of blocks in less than 7 minutes of play. That’s how you make All Star teams and have teammates look at you a little differently in the locker room and at practice.

    2. Working The Seams

    Let the record show that Randy Foye and Rashad McCants were a combined 11-31 FG last night, and that it doesn’t even come close to revealing how well they played, individually and together. The standing cavaet here is that this was the Memphis Grizzlies, not quite as pathetic as the Clippers without Kamen the other night, but certainly earning their new status as one of the three worst teams in the NBA (the Wolves are now 4th, crushing ping pong balled dreams throughout the frozen tundra). But as coach Randy Wittman said in the postgame, Foye and McCants have been told to work the seams of the defense via penetration and then dish to the open man if and when their path to the hoop is deterred. Both players did that last night, often feeding each other, and the only concern is that they weren’t finishing each other’s assists. As it was, Shaddy had five dimes (it could have been 8-10) and Foye 3 (could have been double that), even with Craig Smith agains enduring a loud and mysterious 1-7 FG clanking.

    Foye’s numbers weren’t even as good as McCants’s mediocrity, but for all the times I’ve ripped him for generating results while looking like anything but a point guard, tonight is payback: Despite the numbers, his floor game lent credence to the idea that he can run this ballclub in the half court. My one criticism is that it is a little too noticeable how much Foye suddenly changes personality and looks more for his A) when Jefferson isn’t in the game and B) in the 4th quarter. I think both situations warrant more scoring aggressiveness; I just wish it wasn’t so easy for a scout to write this tendency in his report and have it come true.

    But here’s the deal: Wittman sits his stud Jefferson with 1:59 to play in the 3rd, and sits Foye with 25 seconds to go in the third. The Wolves head into the final period with that pair on the pine, and down six points, 62-68. Time for Rashad McCants to screw seam-working and get his own; and lest there be any doubt, Wittman throws the clanking Gators, Brewer and Richard, out there along with a stone cold Craig Smith and Marko Jaric. So 16 seconds in, Shaddy nails a 12-foot pull-up. He sinks the T on Memphis’s defensive 3-seconds. He cans a 20-footer on a feed from Jaric. And then flips in a layup on a dish from Smith. It’s McCants 7, Memphis 2 in 3:02 of the 4th. Timeout Grizzlies at 69-70, with Jefferson and Foye soon to come back fresh. By the time they are both good to go, at 6:31, Minnesota is down 4. But McCants erases Memphis’s last lead by getting back to seamwork, finding Foye for trey to cut the deficit from 4 to 1 and then dishing to Jefferson for a six-foot hook that puts the Wolves up for good. For the 4rh quarter, Shaddy is an ugly 3-10 FG–on paper. On the court he was the crunchtime linchpin, with 9 points, 3 dimes, 2 boards and plus +10 for the period. And Foye has an efficient 7 points in 6:31 (2-2 FG, 2-2 FT, 0 assists but 0 turnovers) and is plus +6.

    3. Hit and Run

    It sure would be fattening to play the Grizz every night. The "tanking" concept is way overused lately, so let’s just say it was a curious decision for Grizz coach Mark Iavaroni to go with the Not Ready For Prime Time Player Mike Conley at the point instead of the far more polished Kyle Lowry down the stretch. And, after Jason Collins snagged his 5th foul, to toss clueless Kwame Brown in as red meat for Jefferson when Memphis was up by just two points with 7:07 to go in the game and Brown hadn’t seen one second of burn up to that point. Are we surprised that Jefferson scored five points and drew two fouls on Brown during the latter’s 2:34 of play, a stretch that saw the Wolves go on an 8-4 run? And let’s not forget Juan Carlos Navarro, whose shot selection had Gerald Green holding his head and running around in circles in his living room watching the game at home. Navarro’s 0-4 FG in 3:31 went nicely with Conley’s 3–7 FG in all 12:00–neither one had an assist.

    For the game, Navarro was 5-17 FG, Conley 3-10 FG–that’s a flatulant 8-17 FG out of your starting backcourt, folks–*with zippo, nada, zilch, assists. The guys spooling out all the dimes for this Grizz squad? Darko and Kahim Warrick, with 3 apiece. Meanwhile, Rudy Gay and Mike Miller, so effective in the first half, combined for 6-17 FG in the second half–because no one could get them the damn ball in any position to score. That little chime you heard when Jason Collins scored on a wide open layup after a feed from Warrick with 9:32 to play in the 4th quarter was the signal that Memphis had used up its allotted one assist for the entire second half. They would not be granted another–not with Conley and Navarro in the backcourt.

    Before we go, two quick shout-outs. Ryan Gomes suffered through a terrible shooting performance–and because Gomes pretty much only shoots open looks, you know he’s off when he’s 1-11 FG. But in the final 70 seconds of play with the Wolves up by one, there was Gomes with a savvy strip-and-save of a Memphis dribble penetration to produce the steal, then a no-hesitation swish on a wide open 20-footer to give Minnesota a little cushion. Big shot, which shores up one of the few places where Gomes hasn’t been reliable this season, clutch scoring.

    Finally, it would be a shame to overlook another guerrilla-effective performance from Jaric, who merely led the team in assists (7) and plus/minus (+9) in 31:01. That’s a very Telfair-like 31 assists and 6 turnovers for Marko in the last 5 games. At my prompting, Wittman admitted he thought about getting Jaric more burn in the final 6 and a half minutes in place of Kirk Snyder–"but I was afraid of Rudy Gay’s
    size at the 3; I didn’t want him getting inside" creating switches and open looks for him and others, he replied.

    Except that his dunderheaded teammates plus Jefferson’s commitment to protecting the rim stopped Gay far more than Snyder, who seemed overmatched most of the evening. But yet another way to look at it is that Wittman played a 24-year old newbie (Snyder) over the established commodity (Jaric) and found out a little more about this soon-to-be unrestricted free agent. Wittman’s take on Snyder? "Solid. He does everything decent. He’s worked himself into my confidence at the end of games." Meanwhile, Corey Brewer and Chris Richard can trade nostalgic memories of March Madness on the sideline…

  • Glen Taylor Opens another Can of Worms

    Copyright AFP/GETTY IMAGES, photo by Ronald Martinez

    For a man who has made a billion dollars on wedding invitations, Glen Taylor sometimes isn’t a very bright guy. Yesterday’s comments to the daily beat writers–"KG tanked it" is the money quote–is a perfect example of how Taylor keeps cutting off the nose of this franchise to spite its face by his continual denigration of Garnett’s role and impact on the team during the tail end of his dozen years with the Wolves.

    First, let’s give Taylor’s comments their tiny due. When Garnett was shut down with five games to go last season I don’t think I was alone in believing it was at the instigation of team management rather than Garnett himself, despite comments from the front office and KG’s agent, Andy Miller, that he was indeed hurt. The statements by Miller and Garnett in response to Taylor’s latest charge clearly imply that it was KG who instigated his removal from the lineup, albeit because of legitimate injury rather than a desire to secure a better draft pick by diminishing the ballclub’s chances of winning.

    But for that miniscule drop of truthful satisfaction, what has Taylor wrought for himself and his franchise? When it comes to tanking, his comments reek of baldfaced hypocrisy. There hasn’t been a more blatant example of trying to lose a game that impacted the number of lottery balls a team would receive than the finale of the 2005-06 season, a year before the KG absence that is the subject of Taylor’s allegation. During that game, versus Memphis, the Wolves *benched all their promising young players* down the stretch for the likes of scrubs such as Bracey Wright and Ronnie Dupree, allowed a Memphis opponent an uncontested layup in the waning seconds of regulation, and then had Mark Madsen chuck up seven three-pointers in a double-overtime loss. Mind you, this was all after the ballclub shelved both KG and Ricky Davis due to "injury." My column that night was entitled, "The One-Pointer: Wolves Disgrace Themselves." Anyone who watched knew exactly what was happening. And now Glen Taylor has the gall to say "I don’t like that so much" with respect to tanking, and then drop the anvil on Garnett?

    Look, Kevin Garnett is no saint–he’s human. He was two-faced in his support/nonsupport of first Flip Saunders and then Kevin McHale. I ripped him for it at the times they were happening. He also was a lousy general manager, arguing on behalf of Troy Hudson and Mike James, among others. He openly feuded with Wally Szczerbiak (along with most of the roster). But Taylor’s remarks continually besmirching KG since he dealt away the superstar–from the "freeze out" of Wally and team split between pro and con KG acolytes to the demand for a sizable contract extension last season to the pettiness of negotiations of how he should be honored on his return to Minnesota this weekend–do nothing but poison his own well. They collide face first into some hard realties ignored by Taylor’s selectively biased perspective.

    1. Kevin Garnett gave this franchise everything he had. The Minnesota Timberwolves were a standing joke–a dysfunctional gulag on the frozen prairie–before he arrived and for a dozen years he rebutted expectations that escalated into belittling demands that he abandon this franchise and go find a bigger, better market in which to play.

    2. Within the fraternity of coaches and players in the NBA–the people who are on the inside, who genuinely know what’s what–Garnett has an impeccable reputation as a player who doesn’t stint on practicing or playing at anything other than 100 percent. His ability to set the tone from the top of the pecking order is of enormous value in sweeping away a lot of the motivational bullshit that many coaches and general managers–and, by extension, owners–have to endure when sheperding a ballclub through a long 82-game season.

    3. Because of Garnett’s sterling reputation and the frozen geography of the Timberwolves’ locale, Taylor’s calling out of his loyal superstar pretty much ensures that no prominent free agent will want to come to Minnesota in the near future. Remember what happened to the Bulls and Jerry Krause when he got into a power struggle with Phil Jackson, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen? A similar dynamic now seems likely here.

    I am on record as admiring the amount of money Taylor has put into trying to build a winner here, and it would be hypocritical of me to discourage the owner from speaking his mind. Give me the free-wheeling guy who believes honesty (even if it is only his version of it) is the best policy over some dissembling, secretive groupthink spinmeisters. But this is a food fight Glen Taylor cannot win. Frankly, I’m surprised he doesn’t realize that. He and his organization would do well to drop this quixotic KG fixation and tend to the business at hand. Because contrary to all the wonderful spin we’ve heard locally about this great Garnett trade, the Celtics have the best record in the NBA and Glen Taylor is answering questions about whether or not his current ballclub will go into the tank for a third straight year.

  • The Three Pointer: Finishing Strong

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #66, Home Game #34: Los Angeles Clippers 90, Minnesota 99

    Season Record: 16-50

    1. Pick and Roll Call

    The Clippers without Chris Kamen are a feel-good victim for a ballclub ready to generate some springtime momentum despite its inevitable trip to the lottery. Wolves coach Randy Wittman stomped and gyrated and spun and screamed and acted out for a good part of the game on the sidelines, then came in from the nine-point triumph and essentially praised everyone on the roster.

    And with good reason. Abetted by a steady diet of pick-and-rolls–"we run more of them against [the Clippers] than any other team" Wittman said–Minnesota made at least half their field goals for the third straight game, held the Clips to 38.8% from the field, and used a 13-4 run in the first 3:42 of the 4th quarter to turn a two-point lead into double-digits and a relatively comfortable coast to victory.

    With that said, let’s begin the roll call.

    The easy story is Al Jefferson because it follows the classic arc of shame and redemption: Benched for horrid D Friday night against Seattle, challenged to improve at that end of the court for at least the last month, according to Wittman–"it is the next step for him"–Jefferson made a pair of tone-setting blocks on shots by Josh Powell and Tim Thomas in the first 1:10 of the game and then added another against Cuttino Mobley with 4:06 to play in the period. And in the second quarter he lunched Powell again at the 3:16 mark.

    It ruins the plot to point out that those first three blocks didn’t really set the tone: The Clips were firing away at 53% (9-17 FG) during the first nine minutes of the game. But both Wittman and Jefferson were enthused about his defensive play, and the Kamen-less Clips–who also got a subpar effort from a dinged up Al Thornton–did only get 30 points in the paint, so if Big Al wants to use this one as a momentum changer toward a new emphasis on protecting the rim, no self-respecting Wolves fan should stop him. Especially with Memphis (Darko), Indiana (Jeff Foster) and the Knicks (Zach Randolph) on the dance card of what should be a very successful week.

    I’d rather toss garlands at the invisible man, Ryan Gomes, who was second on the team to Marko Jaric in minutes-played, led in plus/minus at plus +15, and in scoring efficiency by getting 19 on 6-9 FG, 1-1 3pt and 6-6 FT–and was barely noticeable. Gomes was the only guy on the team who understood how to play offense in the first quarter, as the Clippers aggressively doubled Jefferson–move without the ball. Jefferson barged his way for 2-5 FG, and Kirk Snyder barreled into the lane for 1-3 FG and 3-4 FT. Meanwhile, dynamite sticks Foye (1-5 FG) and McCants (0-2) misfired from the perimeter. It was left to Gomes to school the lard-heavy (in brain and body) Tim Thomas, from the first points of the period (a 17 footer from near the baseline) to the last (a pretty layup on a deft dish from Corey Brewer). While the rest of the Wolves were shooting 5-18 FG, with none of the baskets assisted, Gomes was 3-4 FG, with dimes tossed in all three buckets, and 4-4 FT to account for 10 of the team’s 23 points. He added 5 more in the second quarter (including a trey) and then deferred once Minnesota discovered the pick and roll between the littles and the bigs, shooting just 1-2 FG in 17:15 in second half play, but chasing Thomas from the paint to the arc and helping out on rotations down low. The Barometer is holding steady: good, unsung game from Gomes, victory for Minnesota.

    Plaudits also to Shaddy McCants, who had one of those games that makes you wonder why he isn’t registering 35-40 minutes per night. After a tepid first and early second quarter, he re-entered the game with 5:08 to play in the half and the Wolves down 2. In the space of 3:36, he nailed a trey on a feed from Foye, caught the Clips napping on a breakout transition layup courtesy of a baseball bullet pass from Snyder, then fed Jefferson for a turnaround 10-foot bunny, Gomes for a layup and Foye for a trey: 5 points, three assists, Wolves up 3 at the break.

    McCants would have finished with 9 or 10 assists instead of 6 had Craig Smith not done an atypically poor job at finishing at the rim. Shaddy to Rhino was one of the choice spreads in the pick-and-roll bread-and-butter, with McCants delivering the bounce pass in rhythm nearly every time. Then there are the purely aesthetic delights, such as the Clips blocking the passing lane as the Rhino stampeded down the left lane, leaving McCants to dribble once, twice, and then right-dribble-to-left-hand crossover dribble as he’s moving left, only to right himself toward the hoop as he skies and squares in muscular ballet, nailing a 21-foot liner the way you and I toss a soggy paper towel in the wastebasket from across the room.

    His 9 points on 3-3 FG, 1-1 3pt and 2-3 FT tied Smith for 4th quarter honors. He finished with 16 points on 10 shots, was a second-best plus +6, and contributed to Cuit Mobley and Quinton Ross (his two primary matchups) going 4-18 FG.

    2. A Pleasing Display of Depth or Disappointing Development?

    Among the evening’s plethora of solid performances were those lodged by Kirk Snyder and Marko Jaric, at both ends of the court. For Wolves’ fans this is of course a good thing, except that Snyder and Jaric got plenty of burn at the expense of Corey Brewer and Randy Foye, the coveted first-round draft picks for whom the Wolves’ tanked down the stretch the past two years.

    The Jaric rescue effort is easier to take, because Foye has been on a bit of a roll lately. As nifty as Sebastian Telfair is at slinging the rock, Foye’s visually less pure floor generalship has nevertheless resulted in a greater spread of shots taken, producing more balanced scoring (and more scoring, period) and assist-making. His defense has been so-so at best, but Foye at the point has found a groove.

    But not tonight. Where McCants and Jaric envisioned and initiated pick and rolls galore, fueling a collective 16/3 assist-to-turnover ratio, Foye was adrift, ignoring Wittman’s entreaties to pound the ball into Jefferson despite the double team and preferring to launch before the pick arrived. He finished the game 3-9 FG, with just 2 dimes and 2 miscues and sat for all but 36 seconds of that win-going-away 4th period, supplanted by Marko and his 5 assists in the final period alone. Yes, it would be preferable in the team’s future for Foye to have racked up another notch on his point guard credibility meter, while Jaric was the dunderhead. But it will take more than these occasional blips to recast doubts about Foye right now, and it’s a minor pleasure watching Jaric revel in his role as the steady, savvy vet.

    Snyder and Brewer is another story. Corey Brewer is a very likable performer–he hustles, he’s smart, his demeanor is sunny and industrious, and he’s got the high profile championship college pedigree. By contrast, there’s something about Snyder that seems a tad too forced and strained, and besides, wasn’t he supposed to be little more than a bit part that enabled Minnesota to shed itself of Gerald Green and filch a second-round draft pick besides?

    During the first half, Snyder did not live up to his role as the defensive stopper (same as Brewer’s), allowing Corey Maggette to run amok, a grievance partially mitigated by him burning Maggette for a pair of fouls and a trio of hoops at the other end. By the end of the night, Maggette had done his thing against both small forwards, getting 20 points in the 22 minutes Snyder guarded him and 14 in the 14:20 when Brewer was the matchup. Nevertheless, watching the game, you had the impression that Snyder was the more effective defensive foil–at 6-6, 225, his dimensions mirror Maggette’s (compared
    to Brewer’s 6-9, 185), and he was more physical, if less constantly in his presence, than Brewer. Wittman confirmed as much by saying, in reference to Maggette’s game-high 34, that the Wolves didn’t have "another big 3 other than Ryan, and I wanted to keep him where he was."

    Then there is the offense. After shutting down Kevin Durant in his first notable game in Minnesota, Snyder bricked enough shots to gain the rep of a defense-only guy. But he’s shown some signs of being able to get to the rim, and finished tonight a respectable 5-10 FG in 25:56. For Brewer, alas, it was the same old shaky aim. He was 1-7 FG in 24:05, with the make being a slam dunk–no funky jumpers converted. For the year he is a dreadful 139-387 FG, barely above 36%.

    Snyder is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Brewer is expected to be a regular, if not a cornerstone, for this franchise for the next 5-10 years. Nearly every game he does something unique–tonight it was using his extra gear, the jet gear, to swoop in a snatch a rebound of an indifferent prayer-shot at the end of the half and immediately gather steam enough to fling a 3/4 court-length shot at the buzzer. Yet at precisely the time in the season when McCants and Foye began to figure it out and emerge during their rookie campaigns, Brewer is fading. When you’re a defensive stopper and a 24-year old competitor defends as well as you do and scores a little besides, well, it will take more than that to bump you out of the club’s blueprint. But it is still enough to sow a little doubt.

    3. Give Me April-June Madness

    As everyone marks their NCAA brackets, I’ll ignorantly claim that the Big East and Pac-10 will fare best, with Butler a huge sleeper and the Big 10 bounced by the final 16. Meanwhile, the Celts toppled the Spurs tonight, the Spurs 4th straight March loss, putting them in a tie with Dallas for the 6th seed in the West. Any one of the top nine teams in the West could lose in the first round. And if San Antonio has to play every series as a road team, the fiedl will be wide open.

  • Abbreviated Three-Pointer: No Tanking Here

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #64, Road Game #31: Minnesota 121, Seattle 116

    Season Record: 15-49

    1. Engines In the Backcourt, Stoppers Up Front

    My decision to keep a life and hold off on getting League Pass this NBA season is biting me this weekend, as the Wolves were short-circuited by a double-overtime hockey game (U of M vs. Mankato) that allowed me just 5 minutes of second quarter action (the hockey intermission between OT and 2OT) and then the last 20 minutes of the game (after Mankato St. won it, 1-0), from the 7:55 mark of the third onward. And tonight against Portland is blacked out. Hence the abbreviation of this trey.

    But as luck would have it, the television feed clicked in just two minutes before the Wolves exploded for a 23-5 third-quarter run that transformed a 69-77 deficit into a 92-82 lead in just 5:26, the turning point of the ballgame. And they accomplished this with a lineup that almost certainly had never been deployed before, prompted first by Chris Richard subbing in for Al Jefferson, then Rashad McCants entering the game for Marko Jaric. Suddenly the Wolves had defensive stoppers as two out of three front court personnel–Richard and Kirk Snyder, with Ryan Gomes at the 4–and a couple of sticks of dynamite on the perimeter in Randy Foye and Rashad McCants.

    Sonics coach PJ Carlissimo tried to staunch the outburst, using everyone in his 9-man rotation during that 5:26 stretch but Luke Ridnour, to no avail. McCants in particular found the sweet zone between sharing and selfishness, getting 11 points on 2-3 FG while drawing enough fouls to earn 6 trips to the line. Foye fostered ball movement and kicked off the burst with a trey. Gomes had five points, Richard and Snyder a pair of free throws each. But it was on the other end where the change really happened: With Richard/Gomes/Snyder all active in the paint, Seattle mustered just 2-9 FG, and their 5 points in 5:26 stood in stark contrast to the 116 they scored in 48–meaning they got 111 in the other 42:34.

    Sounds like a simple plan: Spread the floor on offense with perimeter threats–Foye, McCants and Gomes all nailed treys in that 5:26 burst–who can also penetrate and either dish for open looks or draw the foul. Yes, Seattle is horrible defensively, but 23 points in 5:26 is good work against the junior varsity–it’s, ah, about 200 points per 48. And on defense, put a pair of sweat equity guys (Richard and Snyder) between the savvy Gomes and instruct them to negate the paint. Presto: Zero points in nearly 4 minutes of action for Chris Wilcox, who’s murdered the Wolves in all four games he played against them this season. Zero points for Kevin Durant, whose inability to solve Snyder has done more to raise Snyder’s defensive profile than any player in the league this season. Just two points for Nick Collison. Just 3 points for the backcourt of Gelabale and Watson. And that was the ballgame.

    2. Another Rant About Jefferson At Center

    There was a disheartening story in the Strib this week about Craig Smith–not the Rhino himself, of course, who is something of a feel-good tale, albeit one that won’t totally turn the frog into the prince. No, the head-slapping part was how the braintrust has told Smith they want him to work on his midrange game so that when he slots in alongside Al Jefferson in the frontcourt, they won’t be ruining each other’s spacing in the low block. The implication, of course, is one that the Wolves have been making in a dozen different, equally perplexing ways this season–that they foresee Jefferson as their center of the future.

    Now there are times when the Jefferson-Smith tandem has been more effective than I would have imagined. It can be an interesting wrinkle, part of a lineup rotation that falls somewhere between a gimmick and the team’s bread-and-butter. But I fear the Wolves Jefferson in the pivot of whatever go-to quintet they assemble. Their quartet of relatively legit centers have been purposefully sliced and diced into discontinuity: Chris Richard leads with 310 minutes, followed by Theo Ratliff with 214, Michael Doleac with 206, and Mark Madsen with 130–by comparison, Randy Foye already has 632 minutes since returning from injury about a month ago. Obviously the idea of getting Jefferson accustomed to the center slot is more of a priority than keeping him at his natural power forward position. Meanwhile, the primary alternatives at the 4 have also been relative pipsqueaks–Craig Smith (6-7 is generous), Ryan Gomes (6-8 with small forward instincts) and Antoine Walker (6-9 outside gunner).

    Normally smallball is designed to pick up the pace and ambush teams with quickness in transition. To push the polemic a little bit, however, what the Wolves have done is create a frontcourt that is both small *and* slow. That’s why they are 29th in blocks–at 3.65 a game ahead of only the listless Knicks–and 27th in scoring; not only 28th in fast break points but 29th in allowing fast break points, and 28th in creating points off turnovers–they get screwed on both ends of the small-and- quick versus large-and-slow equation. They *do* rank in the top 5 in second chance points, mostly because they grab more than 50% of the available rebounds despite their miserable FG%. These things are a tribute to Jefferson’s tenacity.

    To update the argument, let’s go to some pretty stunning numbers versus Seattle last night. As usual, rather than playing a defensive-minded center like Richard beside Jefferson in a large duo, Wittman and the front office subbed one in for the other. And the numbers give a pretty good indication when Jefferson does not belong as the main man on defense beneath the hoop.

    In the first quarter, the Sonics were 12-17 from the field until Richard replaced Big Al with 1:26 to play in the first, at which point Seattle shot 2-4 FG. When Richard was logging the 6:26 of the second period, Seattle shot 6-15, or 40%. When Jefferson came in to play the remaining 5:36, Seattle was a perfect 8-8 from the field. Got that? First half stats: Seattle shoots 8-19 FG with Richard in the game and a whopping 20-25 FG–80%!–with Jefferson as the last line of defense. Go the second half, which included that 2-9 FG stretch for the Sonics mentioned in the first point of this trey. With Jefferson on the floor for the first 3:07 of the third, Seattle shot 3-4 FG, which actually reduced the percentage the Sonics were shooting against him. When Richard too over for the final 8:53, Seattle shot 7-18. Okay, so after three periods, it is 15-37 against Richard and 23-29 FG against Jefferson.

    Richard finished his night helping Seattle go 0-2 FG in the first 1:22 of the 4th quarter, by which point the Wolves had grabbed a commanding 101-88 lead. Understand that Jefferson is a proud man, who could see the disparity that was occurring between he and Richard on the court as keenly as anyone. In his concluding 10:38 of the game, he worked really hard on that end of the court, frequently biting on up fakes and making a determined effort to deny penetration, two things that provoked 3 fouls in that 10:38–all of them greeted with a passionate protest from Jefferson. But the good news is, Seattle shot only 8-20 FG during that 4th period, giving Jefferson a final mark of 31-49 FG, or 62%, versus Richard’s 15-39 FG, which works out to 38%.

    Obviously these stark numbers are not quite that simple. There were always four players besides Jefferson or Richard working the defense, and that needs to be considered. But to me, the more glaring stat is the 0:00 that a limited scorer but hustle guy defender like Richard spent alongside a gifted scorer who has trouble on D like Jefferson. Finally, on the plus/minus end of things, Jefferson was minus -12 in 29:30 (despite shooting 8-13 FG, committing t
    hree steals and blocking two shots) and Richard was plus +17 in the remaining 18:30.

    3. Not Tanking

    There will be the usual controversy about what teams are dogging it for the lottery and what ones are not. Right now, the Wolves will almost certainly finish ahead of Miami, and last night’s win puts them in a win tie with Memphis, just one behind Seattle. The Knicks are also in their sights. The arguments for and against tanking have been made ad nauseum. But for what it’s worth, I just want to give the ballclub credit for continuing to work hard to maximize their production on the court. Perhaps karma will reward them. Because it certainly seems karma has punished them the past two seasons, robbing their tank-centric draft picks of a second productive year in the league two times in a row (McCants and Foye).

    Okay, the Portland tilt is on tap and I am sans visuals. For those who catch the game, educate us about it in the comments.

  • The Three Pointer: Lost in the Crunch

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #63, Home Game #33: Portland 103, Minnesota 96

    Season Record: 14-49

    1. When It Matters Most

    Al Jefferson did not score a single point in the first 19 minutes and 4 seconds of this game, which I’d wager is his longest drought of the season thus far. By the time he grabbed an offensive rebound and tossed in the putback, three of his teammates–Marko Jaric, Rashad McCants and Craig Smith–were already in double figures and the Wolves were up 5. In the locker room after the game, Jefferson sprawled easily in his chair and exclaimed that the situation showed "that my teammates had my back." This is the way a leader talks.

    The screws were turned for almost this entire game, making it one of the more enjoyable to watch this year. There were no double-digit leads, 16 ties, and 18 lead changes. In such a game you knew that Jefferson’s prominence would steadily rise, and you suspected that on Portland’s side, a similar dynamic was coalescing around combo guard Brandon Roy.

    And so it went. Jefferson’s point totals through three periods were 0-2-6. Roy’s were 7-5-6. In the 4th quarter, Jefferson led all scorers with 12 points, shooting 6-9 FGs, while the rest of his teammates shot 2-13 FG and coughed up a 5-point lead in an 18-6 run over the final 6:06 of the game. Asked if he got frustrated with the disparity between his own accuracy and that of his teammates during these final 12 minutes, Jefferson replied, "I got frustrated with myself for missing shots and tried to get myself going."

    Roy led his team in fourth quarter field goals (3-5), free throws (3-4), points (9) and assists (2). "Roy got to the rim," Wolves coach Randy Wittman stated. "They didn’t settle for 25-foot jump shots."

    Let’s address this Brandon Roy versus Randy Foye thing head-on for a moment. Through no fault of his own, Foye is apparently destined to be bedeviled with Roy comparisons, due to the Wolves drafting Roy and immediately trading him for Foye. Since Roy was Rookie of the Year during Foye’s rookie year and was an all-star while Foye’s sophomore pro season has been spent recovering from a knee injury, it is difficult to claim, at this point anyway, that the Wolves got the better of the deal.

    Roy is one of those players better appreciated in person than on the stat sheet. There is a marvelous placidity to his style, a level-headedness that has a calming, confidence boosting effect on his team. From the Wolves being up 90-87 with 5:48 to play, he keyed a 14-4 run over the next 5:14, either scoring or assisting on every point but James Jones’s three-pointer, including two kamikaze drives through traffic that, as Wittman admiringly noted, finished at the rim.

    Foye did not have one of his better crunchtime performances, going a little too strong on his classic running banker down the right lane with 1:32 to play and Portland up 2, 94-92, and then having a similar shot swatted away by Joel Przybilla with the Wolves down 7, 101-94, at 34 seconds to go. The contrast was sharp.

    But the greater point here is overall crunchtime leadership–those who have it and those who don’t. And on that count, Foye has shown a willingness and proclivity to make big shots. To further the bedevilment, he doesn’t offer the same versatility of ways to beat you that Roy seems to, and his ballhandling and overall mien is less calming than it is propulsive and perhaps infectiously energizing.

    Crunchtime prowess is probably the most compelling argument for starting Foye at point guard ahead of Sebastian Telfair, even when Telfair returns and is healthy enough to play. As eye-opening as Bassy has been in terms of floor generalship and pacemaking, we have seen, more than once, what happens when opponents practically dare Telfair to shoot when the game is on the line. Meanwhile, opponents would not be remiss in doubling Foye, or at the least preparing for his hell-bent-for-leather traipse down the right lane.

    As a longtime defender of Kevin Garnett, I know how skewed and inaccurate the "can’t score in the clutch" epithet can be; but, that said, understand why someone would invoke crunchtime as a means of separating Lebron James and Kobe Bryant from KG among the top 3 MVP candidates this season. Some guys, for better or worse, in wisdom or lopsided ego, just want to seize these make or break moments. Some don’t.

    And some shouldn’t, which brings me back to the "Lost in the Crunch" title of this trey. Marko Jaric had a nice game tonight: a dozen points, six assists, three steals and zero turnovers. But is anyone surprised that Jaric had 10 of those 12 points in the first period on 4-5 FG and was scoreless in 5:57 of the 4th, with his only FGA a wild, ill-advised airball on a left handed layup attempt with Portland up 1 with 4:30 to play? Is anyone surprised that Shaddy McCants nailed his first 7 shots, executing that jab-step, pull-back-and-shoot move to literal perfection, and went 7-8 FG through three quarters, only to go 1-4 FG in the fourth, culminated by an airball trey with Portland up 5 and less than a minute to go? And is anyone surprised that Corey Brewer strode into a long jumper in rhythm yet still clanked it, then mimicked Jaric’s crazy drive to the basket and left handed airball–two shots that comprised half of his 0-4 FG evening–during the crunchtime swoon?

    After the game, Wittman tempered his criticism of the 4th quarter offense, obviously in deference to the confidence of this clank crew. "We had our chances," he said. "We had good looks. Ryan had several good looks." That would be Gomes, the superglue and team barometer who likewise has proven to be shaky in the clutch. He went 0-2 FG in the 4th tonight, but was missing wide open looks most of the evening en route to his 5-14 FG performance, further besmirched by his zero assists and 2 measley rebounds (such are the hazards of guarding Joel Przybilla, who doesn’t score but boxes out pretty well).

    BTW, here’s a link to the "Clutch Stats Chart" at 82games.com:

    http://82games.com/CSORT11.HTM

     

    2. Free Throw Bugaboo Strikes Again

    At the 5:55 minute mark of the third period, Foye committed yet another of the team’s dumb, reach-instead-of-shuffle fouls on defense, putting Portland in the penalty. At the time Minnesota had hit 8-9 FT, almost exactly the same as Portland’s 9-10 FG, and the Wolves were up 68-65. I leaned over to Myles Brown of slamonline.com and said, here comes a free throw parade. If the Wolves can stay within ten FTs of Portland, they’ll win. Otherwise, they’ll lose.

    Well, Minnesota never again got to the free throw. The Blazers got 16 more free throws, and made 13–more than enough to turn a 3 point lead into a final 7 point deficit. And to anyone who has watched the team play this season, my prescience wasn’t that visionary, in fact rather predictable. Minnesota is next to last in the league in the number of free throws they shoot and have the fifth largest amount of free throws shot against them. That’s how you can score more field goals than your opponents over the course of 63 games and still be 14-49. Opponents have converted a whopping *433* more free throws than Minnesota, which works out to 7 points per game.

    As usual, tonight was a combination of stupid fouls on defense and a lack of foresight and aggression on offense. McCants and Gomes were chief offenders of the cheap, reach-in type that is a Wolves’s specialty. And in postgame remarks, Wittman called out his team for not attacking the rim when Portland’s big, especially Aldridge and Pryzbilla, showed hard on the pick and roll, leaviing the lane open to express layups.

    3. Hit and Run

    Sure hope it is the Gator rook’s nagging thigh bruise and not some "extended look" or pecking order shenanigans that has Kirk Snyder getting many of the early minutes–including the starter’s minutes–that not so long ago belonged to Corey Brewer.

    Yet another too-small sample size and yet another decent plus/minus–a team-best zero–for Chris Richard tonight.

    Crazy schedule makers had the Wolves out west, then back home for one game tonight versus Portland, then back out to the West Coast. Would a road game in Portland that saved two flights given them more of a shot at victory than a home drive-by ?

  • The Three Pointer: Getting off the Mat

    Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Game #61, Road Game #30: Minnesota 111, Sacramento 103

    Game #62, Road Game #31: Minnesota 99, Los Angeles Clippers 96

    Season Record: 14-48

    1. The Exploits of Foye

    The beat writers from the Strib and PiPress had the dominant story arc of last night’s Clippers game down pat, perhaps best summed up by the Strib headline: Telfair injury positions Foye to excel. The severe ankle sprain Telfair suffered in the first half of Friday night’s win over Sacramento enabled Foye to take over the spot for which he feels he is best suited. He responded with a superb game: 26 points, 6 assists, zero turnovers, and the sort of heroic 4th quarter leadership that has given him special cache–and a crucial edge in his ongoing battle with Rashad McCants for primary sidekick status alongside Al Jefferson.

    While this was exactly the sort of signature Foye contribution that his boosters claim will be a fairly regular occurrence once he’s fully recovered from this season’s insidious knee injury, it was not his best performance of the year. That would be the "four score and 20" triumph in the first meeting with Utah, when Foye was being guarded by someone with enough height and athleticism to prevent him from taking total carte blanche on his menu of court moves. The Clips, alas, have had a procession of points fall by the wayside, beginning with Shaun Livingstone’s terrible knee injury, continuing with Sam Cassell’s classic 18-month warrantly expiration as a useful teammate (he’s been shipped to Boston), and concluding with solid sub Brevin Knight riding the pine with a sore neck. That left it up to undersized (6-0) journeyman Dan Dickau and the even smaller (5-10) D-Leaguer Andre Barrett to try and stop Foye.

    And in the first half, it looked like that would be enough. Coach Randy Wittman paired Foye with Marko Jaric in the backcourt to start the game. But when Marko had his lumbering drive blocked by center Chris Kamen and then Kamen and Cuttino Mobley caught Foye flat-footed on an easy dish at the hoop, Witt swapped in McCants for Jaric at 6:16 of the first. In those first five and a half minutes, Foye had 2 points and one assist and the Wolves were down 4. With Shaddy on the court, the Clips no longer had the luxury of throwing Dickau on either Jaric or Foye, giving Foye an advantageous matchup with Dickau (and then Barrett) at both ends, one he converted into 7 points, a second dime, and a plus +6 stretch for the Wolves over the final 6:16 of the period.

    The second quarter was an offensive disaster. Telfair’s pace was sorely missed, as Foye and Jaric split the minutes with almost equal ineptitude. Aside from their minutes played they had *no stat line*–no shot attempts or makes, no rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, etc.–until Foye found Gomes open for a jumper with 1:09 to play in the half. Meanwhile, the kid from NC State, Josh Powell, did a nice job harrassing Jefferson (as he did the first time they played) into 3-6 FG after Big Al had gone 4-5 FG in the first period, Gomes hit 2-4 FG and the rest of the squad bricked 1-10 FG, and chipped in just 2 foul shots besides, for an ugly 14-point quarter. At the other end, Al Thornton laid waste to the Wolves’ smallish forwards for 11 points and 5 rebounds in the period, Jaric and Foye allowed Dickau and Barrett to go 4/0 assists to turnovers, and the Clips carried a 47-39 lead into the locker room.

    The third quarter felt like the team stirred a synergy last demonstrated versus Utah (although I didn’t see Sacto Friday night) and the key ingredient was Foye’s penetration. One of the things that made Flip Saunders such an outstanding offensive tactician was his ability to recognize and relentlessly exploit mismatches. Foye–even the Foye still rusty from injury–versus Dickau or Barrett was just such a mismatch, and whether Wittman or one of his coaches or Foye himself figured it out in the locker room at intermission, it powered the Wolves to a 34-point quarter–20 more than the second period.

    Just like some missed shots are as bad as a turnover, some are as good as an assist, and so it was when Foye took it to the hole. Because he was too strong and quick for the Clip points to deter him, he inevitably drew a crowd at the hoop. His 3-6 FG line underrates his positive aggression, with only one of those misses–a wayward trey– detrimental. On the other two, both layup attempts, Gomes followed up with his own layup and was fouled by Dickau, and Jefferson tipped in his own putback. Foye also was fouled going to the hoop–by bigs Tim Thomas and Kamen, and by Barrett at the end of the quarter–knocking down 5-6 FT for the period. And his dribble penetration freed up the double-teams on Jefferson, and enabled Gomes to play his sneaky smart game. The bottom line was 11 points apiece for Foye (who added three official assists in addition to his missed layup assists) and Gomes, and 8 for Jefferson–30 of the team’s 34 for the period, producing 52 FG%. Minnesota was down five but had momentum heading into the final period.

    The 4th quarter comeback was greatly abetted by Clippers’ stupidity, especially coach Mike Dunleavy’s perculiar notion to do away with a point guard for the final 8:15 of the game. [Update: At least one commenter believes it was in response to the Wolves’ zone, which is certaintly possible.] At that point, for all their faults, Dickau was plus +9 and Barrett a mere minus -1, making the Clips up 8 at 83-75. When you put Mobley and Maggette in your backcourt without a point guard, ill-advised three-pointers reign. After shooting 49% FG, 5-13 from outside the arc, and 21-23 FT through three quarters, the Clips were a heedless 2-8 from trey territory, spurring a putrid 6-20 FG performance further undercut by just 4-4 FT for 18 points. And at the other end, the Clips big lineup compelled Wittman to go with a front line of Jefferson-Smith-Gomes, just the right combo for Smith to wheel and deal for 6 points and 4 rebounds, and for Gomes to shut down Thornton, who went 0-4 FG with just one rebound while playing the entire 12 minutes.

    And that set up Foye’s heroics. Inserted back into the game (after Jaric rose to the occasion with some perimeter deflections on D in the big lineup) with 3:15 to play and the Wolves up 2, Foye scored the last 6 points for his team–the first a cold-blooded jumper off a feed from Smith that seesawed the one-point margin back to Minnesota, 95-94, with 1:15 to play; and the second his patented right-lane running banker which made it 97-94 with 10 seconds to go. Here’s where the Clips’ stupidity reached epic heights. After chucking treys all period, Maggette chose to dribble *inside the arc* and offer up a two-pointer that brought the Clips to 97-96, but with just 2 seconds to play, as Dunleavy made a face like he was shitting BBs on the sideline. To finish the drama, Foye was fouled, canned them both, and the Wolves had their first back-to-back wins on the road this season.

    2. Not in the Box Score

    During his rookie season two years ago. Rashad McCants was frequently lost on defense, selfish on offense, and petulant in attitude at both ends of the court. When the Wolves went into full tank mode very late in the year, McCants showed flashes of incredible offensive talent. Last year, felled by his microfracture surgery, I developed a real affection for the way McCants had seemed to make himself over. From his willingness to participate in any and every silly Wolves promotion to his constant presence around the team even when wearing street clothes, to his open adoration of Kevin Garnett, to the way he bulked himself up, obviously dying to do *something* to keep himself in shape, Shaddy seemed much less of a punk. What’s more, the nuances of his play once he did finally hit the cour
    t, especially on defense, indicated that he had a clue about how to play, and made me pull for him.

    That’s a windy prelude to noting that McCants had probably his finest game while scoring in single digits thus far in his NBA career. After playing with enormous discipline and tact for three periods–a time in which he’d attempted only 4 shots, and made but one, in 19:14, only to have a team-best plus +6–McCants came out with that tunnel-visioned score or (more frequently) bust mentality that makes you want to strangle him. He jacked up four shots in the first 2:43 of the final quarter, missing them all, as the Clips pushed the lead from 5 to 8.

    Then something clicked back on, and the "good Shaddy" reasserted himself. He collared the rebound on an Al Thornton miss and fed Craig Smith in stride with a left-handed sweep pass for a layup. He facilitated ball movement and concentrated on getting it inside to Jefferson and Smith, and guarded Maggette closely on the wing. When the Wolves had pulled within 4 at 81-85, he fed Corey Brewer for a jumper at the foul line, a perfect set-up, then ran the floor and got a pass from Brewer off a steal from Jaric to tie the game with a transition layup. He canned another jumper to put the Wolves back in front, 93-91, with 2:03 to play.

    Now that Antoine Walker is more or less history for this season, no other player can effectively spread the floor like McCants operating on the wing. The biggest beneficiary of this is Jefferson, and it is no coincidence that last night against the Clips, the Jefferson-McCants tandem were the only Timberwolves around for three terrific runs, a 12-2 spurt near the end of the first quarter and a pair of 8-0 bursts late in the third and midway through the fourth quarters. For the game, Shaddy, who was 3-11 FG and had just 7 points, finished with a team-best plus +16 in 31:06, meaning the Wolves were minus -19 in the 16:54 he sat. Compare this to Randy Foye’s net zero in 39:04 worth of action. (And yes, it helped that, unlike Foye, Shaddy didn’t have to play with Kirk Snyder or Jaric very often.)

    Plus/minus can undeniably be a funky stat. But here’s a pretty good sample size from 82games.com, which doesn’t count this weekend’s two victories. In the 1444 minutes that McCants was not on the court in Minnesota’s first 60 games, the Wolves scored a flat 98 points per 48 minutes while yielding 111.2, for a net minus -347. In the 1440 minutes Shaddy was playing–almost exactly the same amount of time he sat–the Wolves were a titch worse on defense, giving up a flat 112 points per 48. But on offense, they averaged 105.9 points, a whopping 7.9 points per game more than when McCants wasn’t a perimeter threat, for a net minus -122. That’s why Shaddy’s plus/minus totals, while still very much in the minus (this is a 14-48 ballclub, after all), are much better than any of the other players with significant minutes.

    To put it bluntly, McCants is probably his own worst enemy, both in his bouts of ball hogging and his sporadically disagreeable personality. It is very hard to set that aside and just watch what kind of an impact he exerts on the court, but try it and discover his value. Unfortunately, it is also important to note that with his team up one in the final seconds, McCants clanked a jumper (that Craig Smith managed to wrestle away from Tim Thomas, a great play appropriately applauded by Jim Petersen), yet another time when McCants didn’t nail the J when crunch time was getting particularly crunchy. So, the debate continues.

    Three other things not noted by the box score alone: As he demonstrated yet again today,Ryan Gomes is most valuable on a very good team, and thus a barometer of how well the other Wolves are performing. I didn’t get the specific stat, but I heard something from Hanny to the effect that the Wolves rarely if ever lose when Gomes scores more than 15 points. In any event, although it isn’t the sort of thing that jumps out at you, when the Wolves play intelligently, talking on defense and share the ball on offense, Gomes shines. I can’t imagine a better complementary piece for the Celtics–he’ll be a better Posey in the next few years, or a Shane Battier, simply all-purpose glue, whether it is as a starter or a superb placeholder. Can the Wolves wait to improve enough to maximize that value, that ability to round out a squad?

    There is also no box score citation for Al Jefferson really rolling his ankle on a baseline jumper where he came down on Powell’s foot. But Jefferson’s ability to will himself through the pain, and not only sink the resulting free throws but move in the lane and sink a bunny hook on the very next possession, was the kind of grit that inspires a team making a 4th quarter run. And it indeed coincided with a Wolves spurt that tied the game from eight points down in the 4th.

    Last there was a play Corey Brewer made in the second quarter where he blatantly pushed Al Thornton just as Thornton had established primo position in the paint and was about the receive the feed. Two things about it: One, that there is no way Brewer can contain someone like Thornton down low, pointing out how his frailty hinders even the strongest part of his game, which is defensive tenacity. Two, the rook is incredibly smart on the court and mentally does something at least once or twice a game that really benefits the team–last night, the Clips didn’t score on the ensuing in-bounds play in the half court, meaning Brewer’s foul saved them two points.

    There is a lot of debate about how Minnesota should have taken Thornton instead of Brewer, and Thornton’s performance in the second period offers a pretty good testimonial for that viewpoint. It is pretty clear that Thornton is a superior athlete. But this is also a guy who has already had a 10-turnover game, and who frequently endures horrible shooting nights that are more 3-15 FG than 1-5 or 2-8. I think the current gap between what Thornton is delivering in the aggregate versus what Brewer contibutes is at its widest point right now. I expect it to diminish and perhaps swing in Brewer’s direction, within the next 3-4 years. Right now, advantage Thornton. Later: ?

    3. Miscellaneous

    The release of Gerald Green by the Rockets coupled with the occasional lift Kirk Snyder has provided indicates that Kevin McHale’s modest little string of positive trades continues. Still, there is a chippy side to Snyder that is worrisome. He’s already been tossed out of one game, and when he picked up a silly tech in a recent home game (either Seattle or Charlotte), Wittman screamed "No more!" at him in the huddle. More to the point, unless Brewer’s thigh bruise is particularly troublesome, having Snyder snatch minutes from the rook and/or McCants is not a trend this team should continue unless he’s really throttling the other team’s best swingman.

    Telfair’s injury is actually good timing. Bassy has proven what he can (and can’t) do, to the point where management and the rest of the league front offices can set a market value and offer him work at the end of this year. Meanwhile, Foye gets to prove he really can be a point guard, Jaric won’t pout as much, and we’ll see more of the Foye/McCants tandem and its effect on how teams defend Jefferson–all good things.

    For those who missed my little announcement in the comments last time, I’m back to playing god in what comments are or aren’t going to remain. Folks who arrive with an outsized chip on the shoulders or who for some other reason don’t mesh with what I regard as the high standard of civility and intelligence that the overwheming majority of commenters have established, will see their remarks disappear. Life’s too short to countenance assholes unless absolutely necessary. I understand that not everybody will agree with me–or, more specifically, most everybody will at some point not agree with me–but to the extent we keep it respectful and about the game, everybody’s life is easier and more stress-free. Especially mine. So thanks for the consideration.