(AFP/Getty Images/Chris Graythen)
In just a few hours, the San Antonio Spurs will either add another bullet point on their dynasty-like resume, or flip the championship torch toward the winner of the Hornets-Lakers series. I called the series for the Spurs in 6 or 7 and will gladly ride my choice-is-made-for-me decision to pick San Antonio until I see an opponent drive the stake through their enormous heart.
Have six relative blowouts in a row ever been this much fun to watch? Whoever owns home court seems to exert their will over the other team–to the tune of double-digits. Here’s why I think that changes tonight:
* The Spurs have three guys who come up huge at crunchtime. In what order does New Orleans seal them off? If I’m Byron Scott, I try and single-cover Tim Duncan with Tyson Chandler and pray for lenient refs. If the Hornets can limit perimeter ball movement and force Ginobili to put it on the floor rather than pop treys from outside, the odds of victory rise in their favor. If Ginobili is the Spurs’ leading scorer and gets more from behind the arc than he does in the paint, I don’t see how the Hornets win. And that’s what I think is going to happen.
* David West’s aching back. Chris Paul is becoming as reliably spectacular as LeBron or Kobe, but if West is at all compromised, Paul will need a game for the ages–say, 35-40 points and 12-18 assists–to put his team into the conference finals. Peja has been a pleasant surprise a couple of times in this series–more than just a catch and shoot guy–but I don’t think he exerts his will over Bowen in a Game 7. If West doesn’t get his usual 24-38 points, it will have to be Pargo or MoPete or maybe Julian Wright, plus elevation in Paul’s numbers. BTW, the Spurs fans chanting for Horry after he put an extra nudge into West’s sore back the other night, plus all the flopping and bitching and Pops hack-a-whoever, plus the innate charm of West, Paul and Chandler, has this confirmed lover of Spurs style basketball not minding very much if New Orleans short-circuits that San Antonio legacy tonight.
* Veterans off the bench. It still blows my mind that the Spurs have Kurt Thomas. When teams are as closely matched as these two, having a tough, smart vet who knows when to shoot and when to pass, when to foul and when to concede the hoop, when to show hard on the pick and roll and when to stay home–and he’s either playing beside Tim Duncan or giving Duncan a precious breather–is huge. Then there are the outside gunners: Finley, Barry, Horry, and even Udoka is no spring chicken. The pressure is really on the Hornets bench, especially Pargo and Wright, to negate that advantage. It might happen, but a better case can be made that it might not.
Of course Hornets’ fans have some nice cards to play in their game-winning scenario. Paul consistently gets in the paint and drives the Spurs nuts. Chandler and the oddly timed double team frustrate Duncan. West has enough pain-killers and will-power to work his marvelous midrange game, a platter of foul line jumpers and left block left handers mixed with the occasional transition hoop off turnovers. Parker gets joustled off his game. And this young and very talented team doesn’t know from pressure, expects and then experiences their four straight home thrashing of the older, finally vanguished Spurs.
Just before yesterday’s Celts-Cavs Game 7 I had decided to pick Detroit over Boston or Cleveland over Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals. Then I saw the game. Hey, the Celtics have a go-to guy, and with it, a genuine pecking order! Okay, give me the Celts over the Pistons.
I understand that going with Boston at this juncture is as shaky as picking the Spurs tonight. And I know the Pistons have formidable matchups for each one of the big three–Prince on Pierce, ‘Sheed on KG, Rip on Allen. Plus Jason Maxiell might be a tad too quick for Kendrick Perkins and Chauncey Billups a tad too large for Rajon Rondo. But in retrospect, I’m sort of amazed the Celtics survived two series without having established alphas and betas among their stars. That’s an incredible amount of uncertainty that no longer exists: This is Pierce’s team on the offensive end as much as it is KG’s on the defensive end. I know Prince did a nice job on him in the three games they played this season; that the numbers favor KG being the man. But Pierce just got through with seven games against LeBron James; Prince is going to feel like balsa wood after that.
That said, the Pistons have a big edge in the backcourt. If Eddie House drinks the same crate of adrenaline he swallowed for Game 7, I’d stick him on Billups for a little rubber hose action. Even so, it is time for Rondo to step up his consistency; he needs to stick more open jumpers (and take more treys to open up the floor), and either get more steals or draw more charges–generate turnovers on Detroit, in other words, to be truly effective. As for Rip Hamilton on Ray Allen, well, hopefully Allen sleptwalked through the Cavs series to store up energy to chase Hamilton through multiple picks. And that Game 7 plan of putting House and Rondo and Allen into a rotation, until Allen’s shooting eye warrants more minutes, should remain in effect.
All the games during the regular season were low scoring affairs, but I expect that to rise some this time; the Celts are freed from uncertainty and the Pistons should score plenty from midrange according to Flip’s fat playbook. Who knows, the winner might even hit 100 one of these times.
Celtics in 7, with each team winning once on the road.
Quick hits…
Aside from Kobe, the most valuable Laker in the Jazz series was obviously Derek Fisher. How classy is the Utah franchise for letting Fisher go so he could have a better place to take care of his daughter? The Jazz were not only deprived of a gutsy, cool-headed crunchtime performer, but Fisher spent the previous two years helping Deron Williams learn the offense Fisher wound up defending. That was a huge advantage.
But we’ll get into the Lakers during the Western Conference Finals preview in a day or so.
Count me among those who think Mike D’Antoni in New York is idiotic. Hey, it’s not too late for a coaching swap: Scott Skiles to the Knicks, where he knocks Curry’s and Zach’s heads together and gets Balkman and Lee excited about real 94-foot basketball; and D’Antoni to Milwaukee, where Redd and Mo Williams and Yi and Bogut are tailor made for his flash and pass go-go ball.
Last and least, my uninformed preferences on Wolves’ draft picks:
Rose/Beasley/Mayo/Lopez/trade down
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