Okay, naturally I’m getting around to my playoff preview less than an hour before the first tip. What follows is my take on seven of the eight series (I went more in depth on my favorite matchup, Houston-Utah, in the post marked “A Little Bit of Everything” a few days ago.), listed in chronological order.
New Jersey (6th seed) vs. Toronto (3)
This is where Raptors power forward Chris Bosh stamps himself on the public consciousness as one of the top ten players in the NBA or continues moving under the radar as a mere superstar-to-be. The Nets shouldn’t have anyone who can contain Bosh: Mikki Moore, Jason Collins, Josh Boone, Bostjian Nachbar and an ancient Cliff Robinson are the possibilities. Sometimes Bosh is a little too unselfish (in a usually good, KG kind of way), but if the Raptors are going to win what should be a tough series, he has to exert his will in the paint and exploit the Nets glaring lack of interior defense.
New Jersey relies on their big (but medium-sized) three of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson. They are the hottest team in the NBA over the last ten at 8-2, but the Raps have weathered injuries to Jorge Garbajosa and a slew of others and still won two out of three in 2007 (34-17), which has got to be the best mark in the Eastern Conference. New Jersey loves to jack up treys, with the main troika abetted by Eddie House and Nachbar, both of whom are better than 42% behind the arc. If the Nets are scoring from long range and able to compel an up and down tempo, they have a very good shot at winning.
Raptors coach Sam Mitchell has done a marvelous job of maximizing his talent, but for Toronto to prevail a number of uncertain things have to happen. Not only does Bosh have to go off, but two players with Minnesota connections–center Rasho Nesterovic and forward Kris Humphries–have to make the Nets pay for ignoring them to stop Bosh. In his daunting matchup with Kidd, quicksilver point guard TJ Ford needs to know when to push the pace to exhaust the older, heavier Kidd, and when to pull back and not give oxygen to New Jersey’s lethal transition game. Toronto is also leaning on folks with precious little experience, like Jose Calderon, Joey Graham and Anthony Parker. The last X factor is Vince Carter. Will his adrenaline, goosed by his return to Toronto, where he is justly loathed for quitting on the franchise, force selfish play at the expense of better efficiency from Kidd and Jeff, or will he stay within himself and flow within the Nets’ silky offense?
Prediction: Bosh and Carter both play well, if sporadically, with Bosh’s low points more injurious to the Raps. Kidd dominates his matchup with Ford (on the court even more than the stat sheet) and New Jersey wins in 6 or 7.
Miami (4) vs. Chicago (5)
The obvious question is, what kind of Miami team will show up? Wade carried them early, then got hurt. Shaq returned and carried them for a few weeks, then, as Shaq is wont to do in the regular season, began pacing himself as the Heat plummeted. Coach Pat Riley even took a little time off to refreshen himself for the post-season (via a conveniently timed surgery). Wade still has a bum shoulder. Can these guys–including vets like Payton, Walker, Posey, etc–all just flip a switch and not only elevate their games but have their roles sorted out and fallen into sync? That’s a tall, tall order. On the other hand, there is a tremendous amount of talent and guile among the main actors in this franchise.
Here are the keys for the Heat:
Which way are the refs calling it? Shaq has always been the toughest guy to judge on the charge/blocking foul spectrum–he both gets fouled and fouls others without drawing whistles more than anyone in the league–and it will be interesting to see if the refs protect Wade’s ability to penetrate as much as they did last year during the playoffs.
Will the team continue to create a niche for Eddie Jones? The longtime Miami swingman, deprived of sharing in last year’s championship, is back in town after being cut by Memphis and provided the sort of hunger and hustle and glue-guy value that is absolutely vital for Miami’s chance at a repeat.
Can Kapono keep nailing treys? Having a kick-out option when the Bulls clog the lane on Wade and also prevent a dump-down to Shaq will really screw with Chicago’s gameplan if Kapono is hot.
The Bulls are much more of known commodity, with the only real questions being whether Nocioni’s plantar fasciitis has truly abated enough for him to be effective, and if Tyrus Thomas can contribute in a meaningful way after an uneven but recently encouraging rookie year. These are two of the deepest teams in the NBA, so the bench play will be a large factor: If Nocioni is hobbled and Thomas shakey, the Heat veteran subs could steal the show from their more star-studded starters.
Prediction: Too much discontinuity, even for a squad as talented and seasoned as Miami. Wade can’t perform at his peak and the play of Shaq comes and goes in a major way. Chicago in five or six.
Orlando (8) vs. Detroit (1)
Brian Hill has been popular enough in Orlando to enjoy two coaching stints with the Magic, but this is a Disney-crazed place that believes in plasticized cartoon fantasias and lemming-style entertainment, so let’s not mistake a source of enthusiasm for a beacon of competence in these parts. Which is a purposefully snide way to say: Why the hell didn’t Hill totally revolve his team around Dwight Howard? And will he finally, finally, get a clue in the playoffs?
The Magic shot out of the gate with a 7-3 record on the strength of Howard’s dominance, prompting early talk that the man-child was a legit MVP candidate. But then Orlando inexorably allowed mediocre point guard Jameer Nelson to control more and more of the offense, with horrific results. Bottom line, Nelson finished the season with 2 more field goal attempts than Howard, despite playing 688 fewer minutes. Howard’s FG percentage? 60.3% Nelson? 43%, including a paltry 33.5% from behind the three-point arc.
For this series, the Pistons have superior matchups at the point guard and small forward spots. Chauncey Billups is simply too strong, smart and talented for Nelson to have his way at either end of the court. The other player important to the offense, Grant Hill, goes up against Tayshaun Prince, an absolutely marvelous defender with quick feet and a huge wingspan. So, unless the Magic plan on riding the outside shooting of Hedo Turkoglu as the super secret plan for upsetting the squad with the best record in the East, they damn well better pound it inside with Howard, who is going up against emotionally inflammable Sheed Wallace, leg and a half phantom defender Chris Webber, the game but undersized Antonio McDyess, the enigmatic Nazr Mohammed, and anyone else the Pistons can throw into the breach.
In other words, the Pistons don’t have a suitable match-up for Orlando’s best player. If Brian Hill and company don’t make it priority one for Howard to average 30 points and 20 rebounds in this series, they will be swept in four straight. Given what I’ve seen from Hill this year, the prediction is Pistons in four.
Houston (5) vs. Utah (4)
To get my take on this series, scroll down to Point 3 on the April 17 entry, “A Little Bit of Everything.” Prediction: Houston in 5 or 6.
Washington (7) vs. Cleveland (2)
Could things have set up any better for LeBron James and the Cavs? First comes this walk-over of an injury-decimated Wizards squad, then a favorable matchup against either Toronto or New Jersey. Meanwhile, the Bulls have to go through Miami and Detroit to get to the conference finals, and the Pistons must cope with either the Bulls or the Heat in the second round; both of which, given Detroit’s thin bench, will leave them spent for the finals. Unlike Sports Illustrated’s Jack McCallum, I hardly think the Pistons will “coast” into the championship game, and as of right now would put my money on the Cavs playing the crown in three weeks or so.
The important thing for Cleveland is to establish the right kind of momentum; treat this series the way boxers deal with sparring partners. LeBron has to work on involving his teammates more often, especially Drew Gooden and Z Ilgauskas, who should be shooting 60% apiece (instead of 47.3% and 48.5%, respectively), by getting easy layups off LeBron’s penetration and pick and rolls. LeBron also have to start laying off the threes (31.%) and start working on his free throws (69.8%)–given the golden opportunity his team has been presented, it is time to stop playing stupidly. Defensive rotations need to be crisper, and the perimeter pressure has to be there from both Larry Hughes and Eric Snow. From the bench, more Aleksander Pavlovic and less Damon Jones; more Anderson Varejao and less Donyell Marshall. And if it costs a game or two to get everything humming, so be it. A gift has been presented–the Wiz without Arenas or Butler has no chance–and the Cavs need to exploit it for the long road ahead.
Prediction: Cleveland in 4 or 5.
Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Phoenix (2)
Get out your abacus, because this promises to be a wild and woolly, high-scoring series. The strategy for Phoenix under coach Mike D’Antoni has been to suck opponents into a run-and-gun game, secure in the knowledge that nobody plays that way better than the Suns. But pouring gasoline on the Lakers offense has enough risk to make this a compelling duel. If Kobe is in a groove and making good decisions–one dictated by circumstances rather than the impulses of his ego–and if Lamar Odom and Luke Walton start reveling in fast break drills, then this could easily be a reprise of last year’s classic, seven-game matchup, when Phoenix needed a mighty rally from a 3-1 deficit to prevail.
Yeah, the Suns have Amare Stoudamire back this season, but can he really be expected to play better than Boris Diaw, Raja Bell and Tim Thomas did in last year’s first round beside Shawn Marion on the Suns’ front line? No, the real key isn’t Stoudamire but whether Raja Bell can remain one of the best in the league at frustrating Kobe. If it gets personal, and Bryant wins the battle while losing the war, the Lakers will be quickly dispatched. But if the Lakers follow Phil Jackson’s superb gameplan from last year’s playoffs, and have Bryant distributing first and scoring second, especially given the increasing familiarity among Kobe-Walton-Odom, it might again go the distance.
Of course Phoenix won’t take the Lakers lightly again, and knowing that they’re staring at a gauntlet of San Antonio and Dallas to get to the championship series, they’ll be all business and anxious to dispatch LA as quickly as possible. Expect Kobe to put up some ridiculous numbers at least twice, and for Walton’s stock to rise. But in the end, the best player in the NBA this year, Steve Nash, will orchestrate enough clutch baskets to win the close ones, and the foot speed of Barbosa, the tenacity of Bell, the versatility of Marion, and the explosiveness of Stoudamire will simply be too much talent. Prediction: D’Antoni is right: Not even the Lakers can run and gun with the Suns. Phoenix in 6.
[Part II, written Sunday afternoon]
Denver 6 vs. San Antonio 3
There will be all sorts of chatter about the Melo-AI combo, the most prolific scoring duo to grace the playoffs since the shorts got baggy more than a decade ago. But Denver’s hopes of springing an upset probably depend more whether Marcus Camby can discourage the drives to the hoop by Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili that open up Tim Duncan’s off-the window jumpers and treys from the supporting cast–Brent Barry, Robert Horry, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen–on the perimeter. Camby led the NBA in blocks per game. He’s also a decent threat on the offensive end, hoisting midrange jumpers trailing the break. Given San Antonio’s ability to get back in transition, he should have ample opportunities to shoot them after the Spurs have rebuffed the initial penetration.
The trade for Steve Blake (a move which only cost them the suddenly redundant Earl Boykins) was a masterstroke for the Nuggets, because Blake is that classic point guard you want as the fulcrum enabling both ends of the Melo-Iverson show. It will be interesting to see if Spurs coach Gregg Popovich uses Parker or Ginobili on Iverson; I’d opt for Parker, who has the foot speed, if not always the inclination, to stay with AI, while Ginobili’s height might hinder Blake’s court vision. If Parker (or Ginobili) can frustrate Iverson into selfish ball domination, and Bowen locks down on Melo, Camby’s defense and the banger-bulk of Nene and Najera become that much more important.
I anticipate bad blood before this series is over. It will be as physical as the Jazz-Rockets, and there is a surfeit of histrionic personalities involved, from coaches George Karl and Pops, to suffer-the-punishment penetrators like AI and Ginobili, to whiners like Duncan. Despite Karl’s wrongheaded penchant for fast-break basketball (even before he acquired Iverson), Denver will win or lose this series in the paint. And that’s why I’m predicting San Antonio in 5 or 6.
Golden State (8) vs. Dallas (1)
Perhaps never has the first game of a first-round playoff series been so crucial to the final outcome. By now everyone knows that Dallas finished six games better than any other NBA team at 67-15, but lost all three tilts with Warriors. The Mavs finished two games shy of the trophy last season, while Golden State is making its first post-season appearance in more than a decade. Whoever wins the opener will have a pretty credible mantra as a psychological edge the rest of the way: For GS, that they have Dallas’s number; for the Mavs, that the playoffs are a whole ‘nother thing than the regular season. This could be over quickly, in 4, 5 tops, or it could be a thrill-a-minute cliffhanger that goes all 7 games.
I’m splitting the difference. I do think Golden State matches up extremely well with the Mavs, with a deep team of versatile athletes that are playing loose and confident under the role-blurring, position-shifting style of coach Don Nelson. Baron Davis and Monta Ellis are more than a match for Jason Terry and Devon Harris in the backcourt, the trade that brought Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson from Indiana provided Nelson with the talented ‘tweeners he cherishes, and a couple of foreign imports, the center Andris Biedrins and swingman Mickeal Pietrus, are superb, relatively low-profile athletes who can get hot and ambush opponents.
But the Mavs will ultimately win because the Warriors are too inconsistent. There will be at least one game where Dallas blows them out by 30 or so, and another where the Mavs vast edge in playoff experience will enable them to escape with a win they otherwise wouldn’t earn. That will be the difference in what could be an extremely entertaining matchup of #1 versus #8 seeds. Prediction: Dallas in six.
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