On the flight back to Cleveland after his 48-point, double-overtime performance in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals, LeBron James was so literally drained of energy that he required intravenous fluids. Well, somebody better have that drip bag ready two or three times minimum for the NBA Finals that kick off Thursday night in San Antonio. Because the Spurs will make LeBron work for everything he gets….but will also force the King James to be the one who beats them on offense.
Against Phoenix, Gregg Popovich and his crew decided to guard the three-point shooters even if it meant the Suns had room to operate off the dribble after they spread the floor. Against Utah, Pops and company seemed to allow Mehmet Okur (and, initially, Deron Williams) plenty of open looks out at the three-point line while robbing the Jazz of easy shots in the paint. Both turned out to be the right decision. How will they play the Cavs? The decision could be significant, because this series, folks, could be much more competitive than the San Antonio blowout most people expect.
I say this as someone who has been blown away by how well the Spurs have performed in the first three rounds. Duncan’s decision-making has generally been spot-on; Ginobili has re-resurrected the notion that he elevates his game in crucial crunchtime moments more dramatically than anyone in the league; and Parker has improved his defense and curbed his mental lapses to the point where, like Duncan, he’s never played better than in the past 6 weeks. San Antonio won eight more games than Cleveland while playing in a far tougher conference, and then steamrolled through a vastly more daunting gauntlet of opponents to reach these finals. In fact, a decent argument could be made that any of the Spurs’ last three playoff foes would be favored over Cleveland.
But for a number of reasons the Cavs are a dangerous, dangerous team right now. First of all, their coach and their perimeter defense are both ridiculously underrated. Even with the NBA’s most galvanizing superstar (as of Game Five, it is no longer Kobe), “winning ugly” has generally been Cleveland’s m.o. They throw a starting lineup out of the floor that features a wiry guard tandem of 6-5 Larry Hughes and 6-7 Sasha Pavolvice, with 6-8 LeBron the swingman. Rarely have all three perimeter defenders on a team been simultaneously so long and tall, so sinewy, and so quick. It is hard for opponents to set up because they have precious little space in their comfort zone, precious little peripheral vision, and dramatically reduced passing angles. Against the Cavs, Washington shot 41.3% from the field; New Jersey was 42.8% and Detroit was 41.9%. Individually, Vince Carter was 35%, Jason Kidd 42%, Rip Hamilton 43% and Chauncey Billups 42%. One of the great matchups of this series is how effectively Cleveland can enforce its defensive will on Parker and Ginobili, two of the absolute masters at creating points when starting from the perimeter in the half-court offense.
This is Mike Brown’s doing. The Cavs’ coach is a Popovich disciple, and it is worth remembering that Pops, too, was grossly underrated despite surprising success early in his coaching tenure. Coaching defense is about making it an unrelenting priority, and Brown is demonstrating that kind of contagious commitment–if he’s not in the class of a Popovich or a Larry Brown yet, the arc of his brief career shows he’s on track for it. The Spurs have played some mighty fine ballclubs in the postseason thus far, but they haven’t encountered a team that can disrupt an offense at the point of attack like Cleveland can. This is the most underrated aspect of Lebron’s game, by the way. Not only is he faithful to Brown’s rigorous defensive schemes and rotations, but he is so strong and inexorable that he literally wears people out. Tayshaun Prince missed 50 of the 66 shots he attempted in the Eastern finals because he was gassed from guarding LeBron, and then had to get past LeBron (and Hughes and Pavlovic) to get his shot off. As the series wore on and Prince wore out, the Cavs frequently sloughed off him to concentrate on Hamilton and Billups and he still couldn’t convert (think of how many open looks Prince got compared to Rip and Billups). Now Bruce Bowen isn’t as vital to the Spurs offense as Prince was to the Pistons, but he was able to slide in the dagger of some crunchtime baselines treys in two or three of the wins over Utah. He won’t have the legs left to make those shots against the Cavs.
But the question remains: Do the Spurs gang up on LeBron or seal off his options and let him go for his? I say the latter. After the Cavs had beaten the Pistons, the increasingly enlightening Steve Kerr noted that LeBron is exactly the kind of guy that Bowen has trouble containing–large and powerful. Like Raja Bell, Bowen has a bully mentality, one that wants to intimidate. That’s out of the question against LeBron, who is strong enough to make Bowen feel puny, and quick enough to make Bowen feel old. If Bowen tries to impede LeBron’s pivot, and get up under him like he does to so many opposing point guards, LeBron will have a field day blowing past him *and* drawing the foul. Plus, if LeBron blows past Bowen, who rotates over to defend the paint, putting himself at risk of fouling? Yup, Tim Duncan. And if Duncan is forced into early foul trouble, everything changes for San Antonio. Remember, the only game Utah won was when Duncan was saddled with early whistles. That and TD’s suspect free throw shooting comprise the Spurs’ very short list of glaring vulnerabilities.
It is Popovich’s job to keep his polestar on the court without having the rest of his team get posterized by LeBron’s penetration. I think the way he handles it is to make LeBron beat San Antonio with his jumper. Have Bowen play off him enough to scurry into position to draw the charge. Robert Horry is extremely adept at this, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Horry on LeBron some, despite the obvious difference is quickness. Bottom line, if LeBron is making his treys and midrange jumpers, this could be a whale of a series.
Popovich has other options, of course. He could throw multiple traps and double-teams at LeBron, and he may even start off that way, checking to see how much of a flash in the pan Daniel Gibson turns out to be. I think that’s playing with fire. And gasoline. If Cleveland as a team has absolutely nothing to lose–and they don’t, a prime reason why they are dangerous–Gibson is the guy playing with the lottery money he just inherited from an unknown uncle: The guy could go 0-30 in this round and still get free beers in any Cleveland tavern 30 years from now. Has there been a player in the past 20 NBA Finals more justified in feeling he is blessed by fate and destined to be the hero than Daniel Gibson? Has there been a player whose body language better suggests that he absolutely the right person to assume this role? Forget about his perfect 5-5 FG from beyond the arc in Game Six for a moment; Gibson got to the free throw line 33 times in 94 minutes during the last three Cavs’ wins over Detroit, and he made 30 of them. If I’m Popovich, one of my first orders of business is to make Gibson feel vinceable again, as soon as possible, even if it means throwing one less body at LeBron. Meanwhile, at the other end, Parker has to burn Gibson at every opportunity, forcing Brown to yank him.
Flip Saunders will tell you that when it comes to defending LeBron, you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Saunders got ripped for letting James waltz around for 48 in Game Five. So in Game Six he throws the kitchen sink at King James and LeBron simply dishes off to Gibson, who nails treys with an unfettered rhythm like he gets in after-practice drills when the assistant coaches are feeding him a diet of dishes. Pops is a better defensive coach than Flip and, not coincidentally, has better defenders at his disposal. Another option is to put Duncan on Z Ilgauskas and let Oberto and Elson semi-guard Drew Gooden while rotating over on LeBron. In any case, to snuff out Cleveland’s designs on an upset, Pops needs to keep Duncan out of foul trouble and prevent Gibson from continuing to think he’s following God’s will. I think that means playing off LeBron, giving him the midrange and positioning for the charge when LeBron penetrates. That a recipe that will fatten LeBron’s scoring average and have him reaching for the IV after the games.
So, despite all this, why is San Antonio still more likely to be the ones holding hardware over their heads in a week or so? Because the soft underbelly of the Cavs is their interior defense and the Spurs has the savvy to recognize it and the talent to exploit it. If the likes of Mikki Moore and Chris Webber can give Z and Gooden and Varajao fits, imagine how Duncan and Oberto can carve them up. Duncan will be black and blue before this is finished, and as always, how the refs call the game will be enormously important, especially on LeBron’s penetration (block or charge?) and the response to Duncan’s low post choreography (hack or no call?). I was shocked at how slowly Ilgauskas reacted in the low block versus Detroit, and if it continues, Cleveland is going to have to double down with Pavlovic and James, freeing up the perimeter for Ginobili, Parker and the three-point shooters.
Who is the more reliable scorer, Duncan or LeBron? If the comparison is Duncan from 4 feet versus LeBron from 15 feet, and Duncan isn’t clanking from the line, then TD is more reliable and the Cavs are toast. But if the Cavs can figure out a way to defend Duncan without compromising that airtight perimeter D, then the Cavs have some hope. And if LeBron forces Pops to think he’s damned every which way–Duncan in foul trouble or Gibson going off or LeBron getting 40–then the Cavs can spring a major upset. I’ll repeat what I’ve said about the past two Spurs opponents: If everything breaks right on their A game, this will be a long, contentious, thrilling series that could go either way. More likely, the Spurs will make Cleveland play their A-minus game, and San Antonio wins it in five, or, more likely, six.
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